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Why an elite prospect must fall for Saints to stay at 15.

 
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whodatworm23


Joined: 23 Dec 2006
Posts: 3161
Location: Nawlins
PostPosted: Sun Apr 14, 2013 7:23 am    Post subject: Why an elite prospect must fall for Saints to stay at 15. Reply with quote

Yeah I know, in order to trade down you have to find a trade partner that wants to move up… but here’s the catch, there is ALWAYS teams wanting to move up on every pick. It just depends on the price of the pick and how motivated the seller is to sell.

Looking at this draft and the situation the Saints are in it’s clear that we are in no position to be players in moving up. We have no picks we can afford to package and trading away future draft selections is part of the reason were in the situation were in. This likely takes us out of the running for one of the 3 elite prospects at our biggest area of need in offensive tackles Luke Joeckel, Eric Fisher & Lane Johnson. Alabama’s DJ Fluker and Florida State’s Menilik Watson are fast risers at the position but Watson is far too raw to warrant the 15th selection and a left tackle Fluker is not. On top of that, this actually happens to be a very deep offensive tackle class and the Saints could very well find a quality prospect to come in and compete as far down as the 3rd and 4th round.

ANY other offensive position basically is a luxury the Saints cannot afford in the 1st round with the 15th pick.

This draft (In my opinion) only boasts a rare few truly elite prospects. Texas A&M tackle Luke Joeckel, Central Michigan tackle Eric Fisher, Oregon linebacker Dion Jordan, Florida defensive tackle Sharriff Floyd, Alabama guard Chance Warmack, BYU defensive lineman Ezekiel Ansah, Utah defensive tackle Star Lotulelei & Alabama corner back Dee Milliner.

If one of these elite 8 prospects happened to fall to the Saints at 15, I would be elated with either selection because the value would supersede (in my opinion) the pick.

However, The odds of one of these prospects reaching the 15th selection is almost nonexistent.

This leads me now to the defensive side of the football and all other remaining potential prospects. The value of this draft is not that it contains loads of can’t miss prospects but rather that it is short on elite prospects but deep in very good players. For this reason the talent level of the prospects rated from the mid-1st round to the bottom half of the 2nd does not contain much drop off.

Let’s look at the Saints defensive needs and potential selections at pick 15 by position after taking out the possibility of any of the elite 8 falling…

Nose Tackle
Outside of Star Lotulelei (whose in the elite 8.) there is absolutely no prospect at this position whose overall grade would justify using the 15th selection on them but if the Saints felt that adding a talented player at this position was paramount in this draft, they could recoup a multitude of picks by finding numerous trade partners while working their way to the back part of round 1 or the top of round 2 where players such as Ohio State’s Jon Hankins and Georgia’s Jon Jenkins value would become more fruitful and the extra picks extremely helpful.

Defensive End
One player that really stands out to me at this position for the Saints at 15 (if available) is Missouri defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson. Not quite on Floyds level but still a disruptive force nonetheless. While Richardson’s talent would justify the 15th selection, the better options at the position would be further down the line. Trading down and acquiring extra picks and targeting other players at the position like North Carolina’s Sylvester Williams, UCLA’s Datone Jones or Purdue’s Kawann Short would be more beneficial to the team overall than selecting a slightly better player at the position like Richardson at 15 without adding any additional selections in the process.

Inside Linebacker
Anyone on this forum who reads my post know how I feel about Georgia linebacker Alex Ogletree. Based off talent alone I feel he’s a top 10 pick but more than talent needs to be factored into the equation when evaluating Ogletree. Based on his off the field character concerns, Ogletree can likely be had later than the 15th pick and if the Saints were to actually select a player at 15 that would leave them with ZERO margin for error, meaning they would have to get the pick right and taking a chance on Ogletree would present to much of a risk. Now if the Saints are truly enamored with the Georgia linebacker, a short trade back where they could add an additional pick or two and allow themselves more room for error, taking Ogletree at a later selection would then become an attractive option.

Outside Linebacker
Now we get to the position where everyone wants to dig in. With the two elite players at the position (Jordan & Ansah) off the board. The Saints at 15 will turn their attention to the drafts two biggest enigmas in LSU’s Barkevious Mingo & Georgia’s Jarvis Jones. While both are popular selections for the Saints in mock drafts around the country and could very well end up the pick at 15 if the Saints cannot move down, let me pose a question to you regarding these two prospects…

How much of a better athlete is Mingo over a guy like Southern Miss linebacker Jamie Collins and how does the production and physical measurable of Jones stack up when compared to a guy like Texas A&M’s Demontre Moore?

The point is, there is no reason to select a player at 15 for either his athletic ability or college production when you can trade back to the back half of the 1st round for additional picks and land a player just as athletic or just as productive.

Corner Back
There are only two corners for Ryan’s scheme I’d even consider in the 1st round of this draft… Alabama’s Dee Milliner and Florida State’s Xavier Rhodes. Milliner will be gone by pick 15 (elite 8.) and if the Saints want Rhodes they would likely have to take him at 15 if available. After those two, there are 5-8 corners that are just as good as potential 1st round corners like Washington’s Desmond Trufant, Houston’s DJ Hayden & Boise State’s Jamar Taylor that will come off the board throughout the 2nd round.

Safety
Like the offensive tackle position, I feel that safety is another position that is very deep with very good players in this draft. Texas’s Kenny Vaccaro is widely considered the top rated prospect at the position but if you told me that I could had to choose a safety for the Saints and my choices were to either draft Kenny Vaccaro at 15 or I could trade back to the back half of round 1 for additional picks and take either LSU’s Eric Reid, Florida International’s Jonathan Cyprien or Florida’s Matt Elam. I would go with the latter 10 times out of 10.

So looking at this draft from that perspective… I can honestly say that baring one of the elite 8 prospect I’ve mentioned falling to pick 15 or the potential of Sean Payton not being able to control himself when it comes to offensive flash players like Tavon Austin & Cordarrelle Patterson. I fully expect the Saints to not only trade out of the 15th selection on draft day but make multiple trades during the course of the draft weekend.


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thesolution


Joined: 18 Jan 2009
Posts: 1884
PostPosted: Sun Apr 14, 2013 12:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Elite talent doesn't have to fall in order for us to trade back. Elite talent must fall in order for us to get more value then what the 15 pick is worth. For example let's say at 15 when we are picking and Tavon Austin is still on the board and vikings want him badly. They would probably be willing give they 1st, 2nd and 3rd. But if the Saints wanted to trade back, all they have to do is hit up the 49ers. They have 14 picks in which they isn't going to use. The Saints can trade they 1st round pick for the 49ers 2 2nds and 2 3rd. Which will give us 5 picks on day 2.
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