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Revis Officially Traded to Tampa!
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Jetsman82


Joined: 20 Jan 2007
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 22, 2013 6:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

iPwn wrote:
Jetsman82 wrote:
As usual it seems people are overrating the value and impact a first round player can have.

Yea, sure, it's easy to say, "oh, why not just draft two impact players instead of trade for one?"

It's a little more complicated than that. First round picks have about a 50% success rate. So, even if you do everything right, you can still be wrong. Saying you're going to hit twice brings that down to 25%.

Would you wager on that 25% chance you're going to hit twice? Or would you wager on the 100% chance Revis is going to be a top-5 player on defense. Health could be an issue, but I don't think a trade would happen regardless unless the Bucs felt good about him. If Revis is healthy, he's the best CB. And since I doubt a trade would happen if he weren't healthy, I'm going to assume he is for this.
If your front office doesn't think they can hit on their picks, they should be fired. Plain and simple.

That's not the point. You obviously think you're picking the right guy at the time, that's why you're picking him. Truth be told, that mentality is partially why the Jets are in trouble right now. They assumed they'd hit on all of their picks, and didn't have enough of them to compensate for when they didn't.

History tells us first round picks have a success rate of around 50%. That's just success rate, not pro-bowl or all-pro rate. I imagine the number is much lower then. The chances of any team drafting a player that is as dominant as Revis is pretty slim, really almost none IMO. If the Bucs trade for Revis, they are the favorites to win the South IMO. And please don't just say, "they could just draft Xavier Rhodes!". Like I've said, the chances of Rhodes just being good is around 50%. There have been many, many CB's taken in the first round since Revis, and none of them are at his level.

Also, to the guy who asked if Revis walks. I would think any trade would involve an extension. No extension = no trade.
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bucsfan333


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 23, 2013 1:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jetsman82 wrote:
That's not the point. You obviously think you're picking the right guy at the time, that's why you're picking him. Truth be told, that mentality is partially why the Jets are in trouble right now. They assumed they'd hit on all of their picks, and didn't have enough of them to compensate for when they didn't.

History tells us first round picks have a success rate of around 50%. That's just success rate, not pro-bowl or all-pro rate. I imagine the number is much lower then. The chances of any team drafting a player that is as dominant as Revis is pretty slim, really almost none IMO. If the Bucs trade for Revis, they are the favorites to win the South IMO. And please don't just say, "they could just draft Xavier Rhodes!". Like I've said, the chances of Rhodes just being good is around 50%. There have been many, many CB's taken in the first round since Revis, and none of them are at his level.

Also, to the guy who asked if Revis walks. I would think any trade would involve an extension. No extension = no trade.

That's absolutely the point. Obviously, most teams have a plan B but every team drafts prospects because they expect them to be great players. Otherwise, they wouldn't take 'em.

Numbers/odds mean jack. Every GM believes he can beat 'em. Look at the Bucs '95 draft. Every GM wants and believes he can accomplish that. If he doesn't, then he shouldn't be in the NFL.
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Jetsman82


Joined: 20 Jan 2007
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 23, 2013 10:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm not saying teams don't have confidence in players they draft. They obvoiously believe they're picking a star, otherwise they wouldn't pick them.

But, GM's have to play the numbers and realize a majority of players don't work out. There's a reason the average NFL career is something around 3 years.

Acknowledgment of this is not a lack of confidence in your scouting or the players you're drafting, it's understanding that the draft is a numbers game, and picks are currency. You're playing the odds when you draft a player.

Look at what happened with the Jets and Tannenbaum. Tannenbaum was at first applauded for aggressively targetting players and hitting on those picks, but when those moves stopped working, like the entire 2009 draft, it cripples your franchise. I'm sure Tannenbaum thought he was drafting three future pro-bowlers, but the truth is, that just doesn't happen frequently, and you can't count on it happening. It's pretty much like going all-in when you need that Ace of Spades to get a Royal Flush. Yea, if you get lucky and get the card, you look like a genius, but there's an overwhelming chance you won't get that card, and you're left with nothing.

Every GM wishes he could draft a class like the '95 Bucs. But there's a reason teams haven't been able to do that consistently, and there's a reason the Bucs haven't done it again. The odds are just too slim. If you count on drafting two HOF players every draft, you're going to end up no where.
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cpanthers178990


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 23, 2013 11:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This would be so horrible if this happened. They are already a good young team, this would probably make them great.
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Malik


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 23, 2013 3:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't know. It's a testament to a players greatness when you're excited about getting 1 catch in a game. That's the standard. 1 catch is a monumental success.
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49ersfan


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 3:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The latest Revis update per PFT and Yahoo

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/04/08/report-bucs-are-getting-impatient-with-revis-situation/

Quote:
Jason Cole of Yahoo! Sports reports that the Bucs are growing impatient with the process of acquiring Revis in a trade with the Jets. The Bucs have long been viewed as the most likely trading partner if the Jets decide to get rid of Revis, who is their best player but is also coming off a torn ACL, entering the final year of his contract, and likely to demand huge money in a new contract in 2014.

According to Cole, the Buccaneers are willing to trade first-, third- and sixth-round picks for Revis, and the Bucs are also willing to pay Revis $15-16 million a year on a long-term contract.


A 1, 3, and 6...don't think the Jets will get a better offer than that.
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BroncoSojia


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 3:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

49ersfan wrote:
The latest Revis update per PFT and Yahoo

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/04/08/report-bucs-are-getting-impatient-with-revis-situation/

Quote:
Jason Cole of Yahoo! Sports reports that the Bucs are growing impatient with the process of acquiring Revis in a trade with the Jets. The Bucs have long been viewed as the most likely trading partner if the Jets decide to get rid of Revis, who is their best player but is also coming off a torn ACL, entering the final year of his contract, and likely to demand huge money in a new contract in 2014.

According to Cole, the Buccaneers are willing to trade first-, third- and sixth-round picks for Revis, and the Bucs are also willing to pay Revis $15-16 million a year on a long-term contract.


A 1, 3, and 6...don't think the Jets will get a better offer than that.


If I were the Jets FO, I would take that and run. No way they're getting a better offer.
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Nabbs4u


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 4:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

49ersfan wrote:
The latest Revis update per PFT and Yahoo

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/04/08/report-bucs-are-getting-impatient-with-revis-situation/

Quote:
Jason Cole of Yahoo! Sports reports that the Bucs are growing impatient with the process of acquiring Revis in a trade with the Jets. The Bucs have long been viewed as the most likely trading partner if the Jets decide to get rid of Revis, who is their best player but is also coming off a torn ACL, entering the final year of his contract, and likely to demand huge money in a new contract in 2014.

According to Cole, the Buccaneers are willing to trade first-, third- and sixth-round picks for Revis, and the Bucs are also willing to pay Revis $15-16 million a year on a long-term contract.


A 1, 3, and 6...don't think the Jets will get a better offer than that.


I'm questioning the intelligence of the Jets FO "IF" (have my doubts) that is a legit offer. Not only will they "Not" get that from anyone else but they should have ran with the trade as if they stole something already.
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eggybucsfan31


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 4:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Multiple sources with knowledge of the situation tell PFT that the Buccaneers are willing to send the 13th overall pick in the 2013 draft to the Jets for Revis. The Jets, however, want “a lot more” than this year’s first-round pick, we’re told.


http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/04/08/bucs-willing-to-give-a-2013-first-rounder-for-revis-jets-want-a-lot-more/
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jetfuel


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 9:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

eggybucsfan31 wrote:
Quote:
Multiple sources with knowledge of the situation tell PFT that the Buccaneers are willing to send the 13th overall pick in the 2013 draft to the Jets for Revis. The Jets, however, want “a lot more” than this year’s first-round pick, we’re told.


http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/04/08/bucs-willing-to-give-a-2013-first-rounder-for-revis-jets-want-a-lot-more/


He is worth way more than just one first round pick. I think the jets are taking there time because Revis has to show up at the April 15 workouts. If he does not show he will lose a total of 3 mill. 1 mill for roster money, 1 mill for work out money and pay back another mill. The jets will show case him April 15 and the price will go sky high.

I still think there is way more than just one team interested in him. The media and "sources" are the only things we have to go by and April is the biggest month for smoke screens. If the jets trade him, which I still think is a big if is for 2 first round picks and a 2nd round pick. Revis is a guy that takes half the field away and the number one WR. This is a pass happy league and EVERY team can use a CB like him that comes around once in every 8-10 years.
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spilltray


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 9:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jetfuel wrote:
eggybucsfan31 wrote:
Quote:
Multiple sources with knowledge of the situation tell PFT that the Buccaneers are willing to send the 13th overall pick in the 2013 draft to the Jets for Revis. The Jets, however, want “a lot more” than this year’s first-round pick, we’re told.


http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/04/08/bucs-willing-to-give-a-2013-first-rounder-for-revis-jets-want-a-lot-more/


He is worth way more than just one first round pick. I think the jets are taking there time because Revis has to show up at the April 15 workouts. If he does not show he will lose a total of 3 mill. 1 mill for roster money, 1 mill for work out money and pay back another mill. The jets will show case him April 15 and the price will go sky high.

I still think there is way more than just one team interested in him. The media and "sources" are the only things we have to go by and April is the biggest month for smoke screens. If the jets trade him, which I still think is a big if is for 2 first round picks and a 2nd round pick. Revis is a guy that takes half the field away and the number one WR. This is a pass happy league and EVERY team can use a CB like him that comes around once in every 8-10 years.


Except he really isn't. One individual CB is nice, but the way the NFL is moving is spread offenses and precision/timing passing. Depth across the entire defensive backfield is more important than having one stud CB. Right now Revis is on a 1 year deal and to keep him, he's going to expect to be paid like a prince. Given that any extension will be part of the trade, his cap number on this current contract isn't really relevant for any team looking to acquire him. In addition to that, he's coming of an ACL injury and some guys, especially at CB or WR just aren't ever the same after that. It's a large enough unknown to drive down any theoretical value he would have had without the injury.

Every team can use a great CB, sure, but I don't really think Revis is a "once a decade" type elite CB. The fact that they'd have to pay him $15-16 mil/year (if true) makes the list of teams that could use him MUCH shorter.
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TheVillain112


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 9:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jetfuel wrote:
He is worth way more than just one first round pick.


At his current salary, yes. At $15-$16m per season, no...
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BBando


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 10:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I can't wait until they wait too long and he comes to us in free agency.
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wackywabbit


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 10:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yea, Jets should take that offer and run.

Revis is great, but if you're giving over $15 million a year, he's not THAT valuable an asset. It was a buyer's market for cornerbacks this year. You could have gotten a passable #1 corner for a third of that, and kept those valuable picks.
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D.Revis24


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 11:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

49ersfan wrote:
The latest Revis update per PFT and Yahoo

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/04/08/report-bucs-are-getting-impatient-with-revis-situation/

Quote:
Jason Cole of Yahoo! Sports reports that the Bucs are growing impatient with the process of acquiring Revis in a trade with the Jets. The Bucs have long been viewed as the most likely trading partner if the Jets decide to get rid of Revis, who is their best player but is also coming off a torn ACL, entering the final year of his contract, and likely to demand huge money in a new contract in 2014.

According to Cole, the Buccaneers are willing to trade first-, third- and sixth-round picks for Revis, and the Bucs are also willing to pay Revis $15-16 million a year on a long-term contract.


A 1, 3, and 6...don't think the Jets will get a better offer than that.



Considering people on here didn't think the jets could even get a 1st round pick for him, I think they probably can get more...
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