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Looking Ahead: 2013 NFL Prospects Thread
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coordinator0


Joined: 18 Jan 2008
Posts: 7170
PostPosted: Tue Mar 19, 2013 11:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

diamondbull424 wrote:
I also got my stats from Sports Reference. I use a combination of them and CFBstats when researching numbers.

In terms of why the numbers are off, I subtracted numbers from years where the players weren't starting. I didn't think it would be fair to judge how these guys play the safety position based on years where they weren't contributors to the team. I probably should have specified this in my post to lessen any potential confusion, that's my fault.


A lot of them looked close in the Sports Reference comparison so I was wondering what was going on there. I'm still looking for "that" site where the numbers are most reliable though.

Quote:
In terms of showing up in games watched, I don't think that's a fair assessment here. Because if you're judging TJ using that method, but then using a different method for Cyprien than it creates an imbalance. It means McDonald has to live up to two layers of criticism while Cyprien only has to with one.


That still doesn't change my opinion on McDonald. To be honest I'm not sure if I have him too much above Reid anymore. Safety is a hard position to rank because it really depends on what a team is looking for but right now I'd say that my top 3 are Elam, Cyprien, and Vaccaro. After that I'm falling into the "take your pick" kind of stance. At least there's a lot of talent/depth at the position so I don't view my opinion on the position as a slight to most of those guys.

gooselovechild wrote:
He looks the part physically, but it scares me to use a high pick on a guy who has less football background than most high school players.

To me, there's no real way to gauge his football IQ, and the way he interviews and breaks down film is going to be the best way to know how fast he picks things up and what you're getting into. You also have to do a lot of projection, since he has very limited experience playing the game.

He will be the epitome of hit or miss, a guy who can make the GM who drafts him look like a genius or cost him his job.

Personally, I'd pass. He has too much catching up to do, and the NFL isn't the place to learn the fundamentals of the game.


Yup. I've hit on it before but Watson's age relative to his development is a concern as well. There are enough needs on defense (SS, FS, ILB (maybe two), pass-rusher, and some include NT) that the Ravens should be able to get a quality prospect at one of those positions rather than playing high stakes poker with a guy like Watson in the first round.
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DreamKid


Joined: 12 Jan 2009
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 22, 2013 1:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Going back over some of my draft mags from the past years, I noticed some interesting trends.

These are the guys who had 10 or more hurries in their final year of college play. Note: This is only from the past 2 drafts, 1st # is college hurries 2nd # is nfl sack total.

Da'quan Bowers 10 Hurries 4.5 Sacks
Robert Quinn 12 Hurries 15.5 sacks
JJ Watt 10 Hurries 26 sacks
Pernell Mcphee 12 Hurries 7.5 sacks
Jaball Sheard 15 Hurries 15.5 sacks
Sam Acho 12 Hurries 11 sacks
Nick Fairley 21 Hurries 6.5 sacks
Marcell Dareus 10 hurries 11 sacks
Corey Liuget 10 hurries 8 sacks
Justin Houston 14 Hurries 15.5 sacks
Malik Jackson 10 Hurries 0 sacks
Justin Francis 10 Hurries 3 sacks
Courtney Upshaw 11 Hurries 1.5 sacks
Brandon Lindsey 10 Hurries 0 sacks

The only one of those guys, not producing or currently on the upswing is Brandon Lindsey. Malik Jackson though he has not produced a sack yet, has nabbed 2 in preseason and looks to be improving. Also some of these guys are not even starters. What is very interesting is JJ Watt even though he was being played out of position, still had 10 Hurries. While Quention Coples had just 7 hurries being played out of position in his final year of college ball. The year before Coples had 12 hurries being played inside, which is where he resides now playing 5 tech for the Jets. He produced 5.5 sacks this year, and looks to be a key piece for the Jets.

These are the guys coming out this year, that have 10 or more hurries under their belt. Note: Still only applies to final year of college play

Margus Hunt 11 Hurries
Corey Lemonier 12 Hurries
Barkevious Mingo 12 Hurries
Khaseem Greene 10 Hurries

Interesting numbers for this years class:

This group almost hit 10:

Damontre Moore 9 Hurries
Cornellius Carradine 9 Hurries
Alex Okafor 9 Hurries
Kapron Lewis-Moore 9 Hurries

High totals for interior players:

Sheldon Richardson 7 Hurries
Sharrif Floyd 6 Hurries
Sylvester Williams 6 Hurries


To prove that this is far from a science check out these numbers:

Von Miller 6 Hurries 30 sacks
Aldon Smith 1 '' 33.5 sacks
Ryan Kerrigan 0 '' 16 sacks
Cameron Jordan 1'' 9 sacks
Muhammad Wilkerson 2'' 8 sacks
Chandler Jones 3'' 6 sacks
Bruce Irvin 2'' 8 sacks
Fletcher Cox 3'' 5.5 sacks
Derek Wolfe 6'' 6 sacks
Karl Klug 5'' 10.5 sacks
Whitney Mercilus 6'' 6 sacks

An interesting fact to note about about all these guys above is that they are finesse players. Sure some of them convert speed to power, but they are still finesse players. Wolfe and Klug switched from end to tackle upon arrival in the league.

What all these numbers show is that unless a player is highly athletic for his position or has an elite burst, he will most likely not show up at the next level with a low number of hurries. It shows he is not very disruptive or at the very least relentless.

A very intesting number is Star Lotulelei's he dropped a big 0, and while he is athletic for the position he is not exactly a finesse player. But regardless of that, for a highly touted DT you want them to be a disruptive force.
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BareYourTeeth


Joined: 29 Mar 2009
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 22, 2013 6:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

diamondbull424 wrote:
coordinator0 wrote:

Well ideally I'd prefer Cyprien but if the Ravens spend a good chunk of money on a safety in free agency I doubt they take one in the first couple rounds of the draft so I'm ruling guys like him and Elam out. I'm not particularly high on McDonald though. He's above Reid for me but I'm not sure McDonald is anything more than just a guy in the NFL. There isn't a whole lot of impact plays I see from him.

I wanted to address this without diverting from the other thread, so I'm posting it here.

First, I don't think spending any kind of money on a free agent WR, be it Reed or Huff would have any impact on going after a safety in rounds 1-3 outside of perhaps not selecting a guy whose best fit is at FS (like perhaps David Amerson transitioning to FS). But Cyprien, Elam, and TJ all best fit at SS at the next level... or within a system that has them as right-left safety without the traditional responsibilities.



I don't think, potentially, signing Huff would mean the Ravens should only target and worry about going after a SS in the draft... because Huff could play the position if need be. So if a guy like Amerson or another FS is BPA, to them, I think they should take him.
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coordinator0


Joined: 18 Jan 2008
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 23, 2013 7:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Huff might be able to play SS for the Ravens. He's a guy that can play closer to the LOS and line up in man-to-man coverage against receivers (and maybe TEs). If that ends up being the case Baltimore could still be interested in a guy like David Amerson or Phillip Thomas who are a more "pure" type of FS. In this draft though there are a lot of players who look like their better off in the SS role so I'd expect Huff (or any other free agent at that position they sign) to play FS.

I guess it depends on what Pees is envisioning for the defense. Right now it's hard to say what it's going to end up like. At this point I'm expecting what could be a totally different type of mentality for the scheme given all of the changes. It's still probably going to be a hybrid 3-4/4-3 look but it's going to have a different feel that's for sure.

On another note, I'm revising my stance on Tavon Austin. If he's available and the Ravens haven't addressed the WR position through free agency and/or a trade) I would fully support them picking him. I still think the Ravens need an outside receiver more but Austin is just too big of a play-maker to ignore. The offense is going to need to be more consistent/explosive while the defense is going through a transition phase and Austin brings something totally different to the table. I doubt he lasts until pick 32 though.
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DreamKid


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 24, 2013 7:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have finally scouted the safety position, I burned myself out scouting offense and ETs early on. I'm back now though and after us losing both starters on the back end, I figured safety was a perfect re-up spot.

Rankings:

1. Jonathan Cyprien

He is an All-Pro SS at the next level, no question about it. Hits like a truck and not the wimpy shoulder hits. He will crush your soul, with sound football tackles. I don't care about his timed speed, his field speed is sick. Can mirror TEs and even some WOs in coverage, awsome range and feel for coverage. Great hands to pluck it out of the air, and can trick some QBs into making ill advised throws. Virtually never makes mistakes, dominated against Teddy B (played infinite times better against him than Elam did). Leads vocally and through play on the field, noticably pumped up his squad throughout the game. Dominated at the Senior Bowl in practices and on gameday. If he played at Bama he would be a top 10 pick, thank god he didn't though. We have a shot to get a true steal, who embodies what the Ravens are about. He reminds me of a young Adrian Wilson, if said young Adrian Wilson was infected with that Las Plagas virus from Biohazard 4.

2. DJ Swearinger

DJ is a poor man's Ed Reed, watching him is almost comical at times seeing the similarities. Note I am talking about Ed Reed's tackling ability now though, because a young Ed Reed's tackling leaves DJ's in the dust. Just the way they both stalk and kind of have that safety hunch, while having a superb feel for coverage. DJ has the best ball skills of all in this draft class, he has a silky catch to him. He will bait single callers, and if he gets the ball regardless of how it happens FR, Pick etc he will hit another gear trying to get to the endzone. He lacks scary top end speed, but he doesn't need it due to his superb instincts. Great disengaging skills to get the ball away from the reciever, if a catch and tuck should be attempted. Hits extremely hard, but they are shoulder hits which I am not a fan of. However his shoulder hits surpass that of anyone else in the draft. He has crazy passion for the game, and was a team leader. The taunt penalty he drew against Clemson was hilariously egregious, obviously that stuff will stop but I thought it was funny. Since Ed Reed no longer exists in Baltimore, at least someone with a similar skill set could. I see DJ being a Pro Bowl FS, with a nack for turning TOs into 6. Don't be shocked if he is our pick at the bottom of the second.

3. Eric Reid

I was very wrong about Eric, I felt he was just a generic SEC safety. Another example of until you watch the tape, your just guessing. He is an all around player whose play will grow in all areas in the pros. He blew up the combine, and his tape is great as well. He has killer range, ball skills, and will come up and hit you. I feel he can play either safety spot, and again at a Pro Bowl level. There are 3 legit Pro Bowl safeties in this draft, and he is the third. Very high ceiling and floor, in all actuality he is a better player than DJ. But I value DJ's playmaking ability and leadership more. He kind of reminds me of Dashon Goldson, but Reid will be a better more complete player.

4. Baccari Rambo

I am higher on Rambo than some because I feel his skill set lends itself to today's NFL. Let him play centerfielder and he will churn out picks for you. With the offense in the league being pass heavy that is not a bad thing. He will not make all kinds of contested picks, and break up passes. But he can pluck them, and will consistently make the easy pick while sometimes making the harder one. He won't trick QBs and set traps, but he has deep range and will be in position to make a play. Awful tackler, but has become adept at stripping balls C. Woodson style. He is a one trick playmaking pony, but that it is not a bad trick to have. Some interesting potential with him, but unless he improves will hamper run D.

5. Shamarko Thomas

I like his range for that SS spot, I think it was DB24 who mentioned his outstanding feet. He is good in coverage, and has some leaping ability to make up for his height. He might be a better Free though, his tackling leaves a lot to be desired. If his target is standstill he will blow them up, but he whiffs an awful lot when his targets are moving. He is good in man to man coverage, but runs hot and cold at times. I am mostly a fan of his field speed and range, which I think can be improved going forward. His hitting is overrated, real hitters don't get knocked out like he did against Pitt. If he works on his game, and becomes more of a sound tackle hitter he would only be helping himself. He does have injury concerns only increasing the Bob Sanders comparisons, but that goes hand in hand with being undersized in football.

6. Matt Elam

I wanted to like Elam, I really did but I just don't see it. The idea of him is great, a maniac flying around making plays but he isn't that. It is also a little harder to get a feel for what he will do in the NFL, because at times it seemed like he did what he pleased on the field. A luxury he will not enjoy, once he has been drafted. He struggles in man coverage, sometimes he can get a PBU, but with a step up in competition he will get worked by NFL TEs. So so tackler whose hitting ability is overestimated especially by himself. He has the ability to sniff out plays, but more then likely will not stop it. He can disappear for whole games not making a single play. He can still be decent deep, but he needs a good position coach. I see him falling into that #3 safety role coming in for sub-packages, unless he really steps it up. I hate to dog him, because I love his fire but his game has some major holes. Could do him some good to be mentored by a veteran. Boom or Bust type player, the light will come on or it will shut off.

7. TJ Mcdonald

TJ has seen his stock tumble since his junior year, and that free fall is not undeserving. He is strictly an in the box safety, who I don't even see having a role sans ST play down the rode. I think he is a good college safety that looks to join a number of SC busts. He has a better feel for man coverage than Elam but he is even less effective, as he posseses less PBU skills. He is an average tackler at best, who also will get beat up on by blockers. He really sucked at the Senior Bowl which further dropped his stock, he was consistenly exposed in coverage. He isn't fast, strong, or overwhelmingly savvy. I guess I just trust Elam more to fight to get better, where as though TJ may fight he does not have the ability to get better. I thought he was a plug and play immediate impact player, I was very wrong. He is plug and play, you will just get disgusting play. I am willing to keep him ranked here because he really was a better player last year. Maybe he recaptures that form, and improves but I doubt it.


8. Tony Jefferson

Tony for my money is a SS going forward, he makes too many mental mistakes to man that FS spot. The only bright spot in his game appears to be his ability to blow up, short to intermediate routes at times. He is average in all other areas, he has decent hands. Will make garbage picks, that he most likely won't see at the NFL level. Career backup ST player, who with time could maybe fill in for a stretch if a player goes down.


9. Kenny Vaccaro

Kenny is a sure fire bust imo, he is being pushed up boards for qualities that don't appear on tape. He is a below average tackler, and has average instincts. He gets tricked in coverage he bites way too often, and I question his mindset. He didn't look smooth at the Combine, and seemed to get the yips when trying to catch the ball. He has made some plays in the slot, but I don't care. He doesn't have the fire of Elam or the pedigree of Mcdonald, so don't look for him to put it together. I hope the Steelers get him, torch city.

10. Philip Thomas

I would say Philip should make the switch to WILL in a 4-3 scheme, but his tackling is so horrid it's shameful. He whiffs, gets blown up, and gets juked. He has decent back end coverage skills, but he is a poor athlete and I don't see him doing anything moving forward. Field slow, and field stupid.

Other Notes:

JJ Wilcox- He didn't dominate versus lesser competition, versatility is impressive. But did not impress me during any phase of the draft process, not worth developing.

Duke Williams- Horrible tackler, should be developed into a press corner like Nnamdhi was coming out of CAL.
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dcarey20


Joined: 15 Feb 2006
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 24, 2013 4:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

1. Elam
2. Swearinger
3. Vaccaro
4. Cyprien
5. Reid
6. Thomas
7. Rambo
8. Thomas
9. Jefferson
10. McDonald

1-4 are all guys I think are viable 1st round talents
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DreamKid


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 26, 2013 5:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

How much of a steal is Stedman Bailey going to be? He looks like Derrick Mason, and some team is going to nab him in late 2nd/early 3rd range. I doubt we look at him though, because it seems the FO is high on bigger recievers. I don't think we have any wideouts under six foot, maybe Ozzie and Co. feel that Flacco performs better with bigger targets. If Keenan Allen is there I think we would pick him. That doesn't seem likely, and Nuk looks to be gone between our 1st and 2nd pick. Da'Rick Rogers has a skillset that would be great for us, but I just can't see us targeting him.

This draft is going to be so great, I can't wait to see which directions we go. Ozzie maybe the best draft figure in history with 3 GOATs under his belt, looks to tool us up again after getting our 2nd ring.
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wwhickok


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 26, 2013 6:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

DreamKid wrote:
How much of a steal is Stedman Bailey going to be? He looks like Derrick Mason, and some team is going to nab him in late 2nd/early 3rd range. I doubt we look at him though, because it seems the FO is high on bigger recievers. I don't think we have any wideouts under six foot, maybe Ozzie and Co. feel that Flacco performs better with bigger targets. If Keenan Allen is there I think we would pick him. That doesn't seem likely, and Nuk looks to be gone between our 1st and 2nd pick. Da'Rick Rogers has a skillset that would be great for us, but I just can't see us targeting him.

This draft is going to be so great, I can't wait to see which directions we go. Ozzie maybe the best draft figure in history with 3 GOATs under his belt, looks to tool us up again after getting our 2nd ring.


Bailey could end up being the biggest steal in the draft. I think, honestly, he's one of those guys that I would label as a "Swing Prospect". He is either going to be a huge success or an overwhelming failure (i think he has high potential to be successful). Whoever gets their hands on him, if it's a team like Pittsburgh, Baltimore, New England, (teams that do really good with mid to late round WR's), they are going to get a guy that can really develop into a starter and have a huge impact for them imo.
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wackywabbit


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 26, 2013 12:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Teo ran a 4.71 at his pro day. I think he'd be great value if he fell to 32, though it may be unlikely he does.
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alfalcone


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 26, 2013 1:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

wackywabbit wrote:
Teo ran a 4.71 at his pro day. I think he'd be great value if he fell to 32, though it may be unlikely he does.


A 4.71 at a pro day is nearly exactly equal to a 4.81 at the combine. He also isn't that good of a player. He can't take on blockers, and his interceptions were fluky rather than a result of skill.
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coordinator0


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 26, 2013 1:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

alfalcone wrote:
wackywabbit wrote:
Teo ran a 4.71 at his pro day. I think he'd be great value if he fell to 32, though it may be unlikely he does.


A 4.71 at a pro day is nearly exactly equal to a 4.81 at the combine. He also isn't that good of a player. He can't take on blockers, and his interceptions were fluky rather than a result of skill.


That's a myth. Te'o had a bad game against Alabama but he's shown the ability to take on and shed blockers.
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diamondbull424


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 26, 2013 1:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

wackywabbit wrote:
Teo ran a 4.71 at his pro day. I think he'd be great value if he fell to 32, though it may be unlikely he does.

I don't really factor in the 40s that players run at their schools... the only time I do that is if they don't run them at the combine. And when that's the case, I add at the very least one tenth of a second to their time.

So Arthur Brown, who ran between a 4.56 and a 4.66 at his proday, split the difference and add a tenth would be a projected combine 40 of 4.71s... still one of the fastest times but not as fast as he'd appear to be over the other LBers.

So personally, Te'Os speed shows me nothing over what he did at the combine. About the same speed. Only there is no computer finish.

Speed aside, I'm not really a fan of taking him in the first. I think Khaseem Greene would be a guy we could trade up for in the 2nd if we're going to go ILB. I don't see a big difference between Te'O, Minter, and Greene for me to take one in the 1st. Arthur Brown is probably the only one that I would be interested in using a 1st round selection on if available... and even then, it'd be a close call for me between Brown and either DeAndre Hopkins or Keenan Allen. I'd prefer Hopkins of the three at this point though and then probably Brown.
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aussie_raven77


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 26, 2013 5:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't know if anyone else saw this
http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/ravens/ravens-insider/bal-florida-state-pass-rusher-tank-carradine-visiting-ravens-today-20130326,0,1467984.story?track=rss
A bit interesting seeing as how much we've already invested in the front 7 so far

diamondbull424 wrote:
Arthur Brown is probably the only one that I would be interested in using a 1st round selection on if available... and even then, it'd be a close call for me between Brown and either DeAndre Hopkins or Keenan Allen. I'd prefer Hopkins of the three at this point though and then probably Brown.


I agree with you here, if I had to take an ILB I'd be happy to take Brown at the end of the first or trade back a bit and grab Minter because I think he'll slide a bit more because of fears about his speed. In terms of receivers I'm high on Keenan Allen, the guy just seems like the second coming of Anquan Boldin with that big body and solid hands and I'd be happy to grab him at the end of the 1st. If we were to wait until the end of the second I'd like to see Da'Rick Rogers, the guy just has so much potential and an NFL body, if he got his head right and trained up to polish his skills he'd be a dangerous 1-2 with Torrey
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wackywabbit


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 26, 2013 6:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

alfalcone wrote:
wackywabbit wrote:
Teo ran a 4.71 at his pro day. I think he'd be great value if he fell to 32, though it may be unlikely he does.


A 4.71 at a pro day is nearly exactly equal to a 4.81 at the combine. He also isn't that good of a player. He can't take on blockers, and his interceptions were fluky rather than a result of skill.


True, but it's not his blazing speed that makes me think he'll succeed in the nfl.
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Anubiz


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 26, 2013 7:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Either way the only LB'er I really want to see Baltimore take is if Arthur Brown is there at 32. I'd be kind of okay with Kevin Minter, but ehh... I'd rather not.

Personally, I have it:
1) Arthur Brown
2) Justin Hunter/Keenan Allen -- I'm really torn on both. lol.
3) DeAndre Hopkins
4) Jonathan Cyprien

That's what I got it personally.
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