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2012 WR Drops and Lucks completion % who is at fault?

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PostPosted: Mon Feb 25, 2013 12:17 pm    Post subject: 2012 WR Drops and Lucks completion % who is at fault? Reply with quote

Colts Authority using figures from Pro Football Focus used drop numbers from the previous 4 years as well as these from last year to show the huge difference in drops as compared to the rest of the seasons. And then wondered if some of the problem might be whether Luck doesn't throw a very catchable ball as compared to Manning/Painter/Orlovsky
5 Years of Drop Rate and How The Colts Fared


Team Drop Rate: 12.83% (30th)

League Average: 9.70%

Notable Individuals-

Reggie Wayne: 116 catchable, 10 drops, 8.62% dropped (39th among 82)

LaVon Brazill: 13 catchable, 2 drops, 15.38% dropped (Didn't qualify)

Donnie Avery: 72 catchable, 12 drops, 16.67% dropped (79th)

T.Y. Hilton: 60 catchable, 10 drops, 16.67% dropped (79th)

After years of very good seasons by Colts wide receivers in terms of consistent hands, the 2012 crew dropped the ball. (PUNS ARE FUN, GUYS)

Wayne, although still above average, had his worst year of the last five. Donnie Avery and T.Y. Hilton both had awful seasons, tying for the third worst drop rate among starting wide receivers. With Hilton, it's not as big of a deal, he can improve and offsets it with his explosiveness. But with Avery, it's a trend. It's his fourth year in the league now, and he's never had a drop rate lower than 11%.

One interesting thing to keep an eye on and/or ponder: Does Andrew Luck throw a ball that's harder to catch than that of Manning (or even Painter/Orlovsky for that matter)? Drop rates were high across the board for the Colts this year, and even Wayne had a bad year by his standards. I have my own thoughts on the issue, but I'm curious to hear what you think.
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Tom Shean

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 27, 2013 12:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Luck's accuracy could use some improvement, but I would say the low completion percentage strings more from drops by Avery+rookies and Bruce Arians' scheme.

I think in Hamilton's new offense we'll see Luck make shorter but less risky plays, and hopefully be more consistent.

Spider 2 Y Banana son.
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 03, 2013 8:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Having not caught a ball from Luck I can't say whether he throws a ball that is harder to catch than Peyton.

However, I'm not going to make any quick judgements about a team that was so much younger than anything Peyton, Orlovsky or Painter ever had to throw too. Luck is a rookie (he could probably through a softer ball when needed, and maybe place it slighty better ... though he's young).

Brazil, Hilton, Fleener, Allen and Ballard are all rookies. There hands will get more consistent.

I think you'll see the efficiency of this offense get better and better year over year.

Images courtesy of the great IndyColt#88
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