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2013 Free-Agency Thread
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mcmurtry86


Joined: 02 Mar 2010
Posts: 22298
PostPosted: Sat Feb 16, 2013 7:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

patsfan25 wrote:
McMurtry: You combated everybody's opinion so far. Why don't you give us an opinion, and not a feedback?


I did give plenty of opinions in this thread. In fact I used the very words "my opinion" right here:

Quote:

Ideally, they'd have a guy who is an elite talent and can do it all - run, hit, cover, catch etc. Obviously those guys are rare and expensive. My opinion, based on what I've seen from Belichick over the last 12 years, is that if they're going to go cheap/mid-range price (whether free agent dollars or draft capital), they're going to go for an interchangeable part. A SS who can either slide to slot or flip to FS. I don't see them going for a "prototype" SS unless it's an absolute top end guy, and there aren't many of those out there. Moore is an option, but he has many of the same questions about his ability to hold up as Woodson does. There's no way I'd hand him a big contract given his injury issue
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spr217


Joined: 28 Feb 2010
Posts: 73
PostPosted: Sat Feb 16, 2013 8:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mcmurtry86 wrote:
spr217 wrote:
mcmurtry86 wrote:
spr217 wrote:
It would be a far less risky proposition than giving Talib a multi year contract.


This is only true if you can get Grimes at a 1 year, small money deal. I don't foresee that happening.

Given how tight the Pats cap situation is, I would be against any contract for him over 2 years or over $3M.


That definitely ain't going to happen. I appreciate your concern over his health given the how hard Achilles injuries are to come come back from, but I still view the CB position to be our number one need. Dennard is not a lock to return due to his legal problems, McCourty is better at safety, and we are losing Arrington and Talib (I'd honestly be shocked if they were brought back, especially Talib). In that case, who should we target? Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie (inconsistent)? Quentin Jammer (old)? Sean Smith (overpriced, seeking 8-10 million a year)?
Cary Williams might be a viable alternative but he might be expensive, especially if some team foolishly overpays for Sean Smith. If there are no attainable starting cornerbacks on the market then the team should resign Vollmer and Welker and focus almost exclusively on defense in the draft. They may be able to sign those two and upgrade the safety position in free agency and then would have to take a corner in the first round, given their inability to find talent at that position in rounds 2,3 and 4. Either way, the back end of their defense is what is holding this team back from winning another championship. It needs to be addressed.


So your argument is that the Pats need CB's because Dennard might be in jail, McCourty is at S and Talib/Arrington will be gone.

If that's the case, blowing a huge chunk of money on a guy coming off of what is usually a career-altering injury is an awful idea. What happens if Grimes isn't back to top form? You've just spent half (or a third) of your cap space in a mediocre player. You still need CB's at that point and the rest of your roster is weaker because you've invested so much in Grimes.

I appreciate being concerned about the secondary, though that's not what is holding the team back IMO. What I don't understand is trying to fix that hole by giving big money to a guy coming off of an Achilles injury.

Anything more than a short term/low money deal for Grimes is a really poor use of resources for this team given his injury and the cap situation the Pats have.


I'm not married to the idea of signing Grimes, but I am totally convinced that CB is our number one need and that it is imperative that we sign one. We could acquire two safeties and move McCourty back to corner, but given the uncertainty of Dennard's legal status, we can only count on having McCourty, Dowling, and Malcolm Williams back next season. That's scary, especially when you consider the fact that our secondary was already (imo, even with Talib) our primary weakness. It's becoming increasingly apparent to met that our best option may be to retain Welker and Vollmer and focus exclusively on defense in the draft and free agency. We may be able to fit those two under the cap along with a decent safety (Woodson, Reed, Moore) after cutting a few guys and maybe restructuring a contract or two. This would necessitate drafting a corner in round one; a field stretcher at WR would have to wait.
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mcmurtry86


Joined: 02 Mar 2010
Posts: 22298
PostPosted: Sat Feb 16, 2013 8:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

spr217 wrote:
mcmurtry86 wrote:
spr217 wrote:
mcmurtry86 wrote:
spr217 wrote:
It would be a far less risky proposition than giving Talib a multi year contract.


This is only true if you can get Grimes at a 1 year, small money deal. I don't foresee that happening.

Given how tight the Pats cap situation is, I would be against any contract for him over 2 years or over $3M.


That definitely ain't going to happen. I appreciate your concern over his health given the how hard Achilles injuries are to come come back from, but I still view the CB position to be our number one need. Dennard is not a lock to return due to his legal problems, McCourty is better at safety, and we are losing Arrington and Talib (I'd honestly be shocked if they were brought back, especially Talib). In that case, who should we target? Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie (inconsistent)? Quentin Jammer (old)? Sean Smith (overpriced, seeking 8-10 million a year)?
Cary Williams might be a viable alternative but he might be expensive, especially if some team foolishly overpays for Sean Smith. If there are no attainable starting cornerbacks on the market then the team should resign Vollmer and Welker and focus almost exclusively on defense in the draft. They may be able to sign those two and upgrade the safety position in free agency and then would have to take a corner in the first round, given their inability to find talent at that position in rounds 2,3 and 4. Either way, the back end of their defense is what is holding this team back from winning another championship. It needs to be addressed.


So your argument is that the Pats need CB's because Dennard might be in jail, McCourty is at S and Talib/Arrington will be gone.

If that's the case, blowing a huge chunk of money on a guy coming off of what is usually a career-altering injury is an awful idea. What happens if Grimes isn't back to top form? You've just spent half (or a third) of your cap space in a mediocre player. You still need CB's at that point and the rest of your roster is weaker because you've invested so much in Grimes.

I appreciate being concerned about the secondary, though that's not what is holding the team back IMO. What I don't understand is trying to fix that hole by giving big money to a guy coming off of an Achilles injury.

Anything more than a short term/low money deal for Grimes is a really poor use of resources for this team given his injury and the cap situation the Pats have.


I'm not married to the idea of signing Grimes, but I am totally convinced that CB is our number one need and that it is imperative that we sign one. We could acquire two safeties and move McCourty back to corner, but given the uncertainty of Dennard's legal status, we can only count on having McCourty, Dowling, and Malcolm Williams back next season. That's scary, especially when you consider the fact that our secondary was already (imo, even with Talib) our primary weakness. It's becoming increasingly apparent to met that our best option may be to retain Welker and Vollmer and focus exclusively on defense in the draft and free agency. We may be able to fit those two under the cap along with a decent safety (Woodson, Reed, Moore) after cutting a few guys and maybe restructuring a contract or two. This would necessitate drafting a corner in round one; a field stretcher at WR would have to wait.


I'm not saying a CB shouldn't be priority #1 (or 1A next to WR). I just think investing a ton of money or years in Grimes is a bad idea.

CB is such a need (hence being priority #1) that putting all the team's hopes in a guy coming off of a major injury which often is a career killer isn't a good use of resources in my opinion. I don't see it as less risky than Talib at all.
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spr217


Joined: 28 Feb 2010
Posts: 73
PostPosted: Sat Feb 16, 2013 9:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mcmurtry86 wrote:
spr217 wrote:
mcmurtry86 wrote:
spr217 wrote:
mcmurtry86 wrote:
spr217 wrote:
It would be a far less risky proposition than giving Talib a multi year contract.


This is only true if you can get Grimes at a 1 year, small money deal. I don't foresee that happening.

Given how tight the Pats cap situation is, I would be against any contract for him over 2 years or over $3M.


That definitely ain't going to happen. I appreciate your concern over his health given the how hard Achilles injuries are to come come back from, but I still view the CB position to be our number one need. Dennard is not a lock to return due to his legal problems, McCourty is better at safety, and we are losing Arrington and Talib (I'd honestly be shocked if they were brought back, especially Talib). In that case, who should we target? Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie (inconsistent)? Quentin Jammer (old)? Sean Smith (overpriced, seeking 8-10 million a year)?
Cary Williams might be a viable alternative but he might be expensive, especially if some team foolishly overpays for Sean Smith. If there are no attainable starting cornerbacks on the market then the team should resign Vollmer and Welker and focus almost exclusively on defense in the draft. They may be able to sign those two and upgrade the safety position in free agency and then would have to take a corner in the first round, given their inability to find talent at that position in rounds 2,3 and 4. Either way, the back end of their defense is what is holding this team back from winning another championship. It needs to be addressed.


So your argument is that the Pats need CB's because Dennard might be in jail, McCourty is at S and Talib/Arrington will be gone.

If that's the case, blowing a huge chunk of money on a guy coming off of what is usually a career-altering injury is an awful idea. What happens if Grimes isn't back to top form? You've just spent half (or a third) of your cap space in a mediocre player. You still need CB's at that point and the rest of your roster is weaker because you've invested so much in Grimes.

I appreciate being concerned about the secondary, though that's not what is holding the team back IMO. What I don't understand is trying to fix that hole by giving big money to a guy coming off of an Achilles injury.

Anything more than a short term/low money deal for Grimes is a really poor use of resources for this team given his injury and the cap situation the Pats have.


I'm not married to the idea of signing Grimes, but I am totally convinced that CB is our number one need and that it is imperative that we sign one. We could acquire two safeties and move McCourty back to corner, but given the uncertainty of Dennard's legal status, we can only count on having McCourty, Dowling, and Malcolm Williams back next season. That's scary, especially when you consider the fact that our secondary was already (imo, even with Talib) our primary weakness. It's becoming increasingly apparent to met that our best option may be to retain Welker and Vollmer and focus exclusively on defense in the draft and free agency. We may be able to fit those two under the cap along with a decent safety (Woodson, Reed, Moore) after cutting a few guys and maybe restructuring a contract or two. This would necessitate drafting a corner in round one; a field stretcher at WR would have to wait.


I'm not saying a CB shouldn't be priority #1 (or 1A next to WR). I just think investing a ton of money or years in Grimes is a bad idea.

CB is such a need (hence being priority #1) that putting all the team's hopes in a guy coming off of a major injury which often is a career killer isn't a good use of resources in my opinion. I don't see it as less risky than Talib at all.


Talib I view as a non starter. I wouldn't invest significant long term resources in a guy with that many character red flags/off field incidents, period. I also think paying him and not Welker sends the wrong message to the team. We've done a good job the last few years of only giving big contracts to high character professionals who are team leaders (Brady, Mankins, Wilfork, Mayo), I'd hate to see them reverse that trend. Additionally, Talib is always hurt. Grimes may not be our best option either, so what might the solution be? Clearly, addressing WR through free agency will come at the expense of addressing CB, and vice versa. We also have limited draft capital.
The cheapest alternative may be to retain Welker on a long term deal at around 8 million for 3 years, resign Vollmer, and find an affordable safety, which gives us flexibility with our secondary personnel given McCourty's versatility. In this scenario, we would need to draft at least one CB, and given our poor history of finding talent at the position in the draft, it had better be in round one. A legitimate number one corner combined with an improved/fully healthy Chandler Jones and a thumper at strong safety may be enough to put us over the top.
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mcmurtry86


Joined: 02 Mar 2010
Posts: 22298
PostPosted: Sat Feb 16, 2013 9:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

spr217 wrote:
We've done a good job the last few years of only giving big contracts to high character professionals who are team leaders (Brady, Mankins, Wilfork, Mayo), I'd hate to see them reverse that trend.


The Pats gave Moss a 3 year 27M deal in 2008. They gave a 5 year 40M deal to Hernandez (who is not someone I'd characterize as a "high character team leader").

Quote:
Additionally, Talib is always hurt.


So is William Moore, who you are advocating signing though. Why the double standard?

Quote:

The cheapest alternative may be to retain Welker on a long term deal at around 8 million for 3 years, resign Vollmer, and find an affordable safety, which gives us flexibility with our secondary personnel given McCourty's versatility.


I'm with you insofar as I don't want the Pats to draft a replacement for Talib. That's a nonstarter for me. If the Pats have to choose between a veteran WR and a veteran CB, I'd much prefer a CB. The offense can withstand a bad WR draft pick much more than the D could withstand a bad CB pick.

I don't want to see a "cheap alternative" in the secondary. That's a recipe for more of what we've seen the last few years. I'd much prefer to let Vollmer and Welker walk and re-invest much of that money in the CB/S spots. Where to spend that money is the question. Unfortunately, it's just not a great market for DB's this year. Grimes, Talib and Cox all have injury problems and are risky long term. Williams is overrated but might be the best option. The rest of the CB crop is weak.

The safeties seem unlikely to hit the market (Byrd, Moore, Goldson) or will be prohibitively expensive.

I'm hoping Talib is willing to take a team-friendly deal because otherwise, that CB spot opposite Dennard (assuming he isn't in jail) is going to be a disaster yet again.


Quote:
A legitimate number one corner combined with an improved/fully healthy Chandler Jones and a thumper at strong safety may be enough to put us over the top.


Finding a #1 CB is almost impossible though. The draft is pretty weak at CB - plenty of #2 or #3 types but nobody who looks like a #1 (and if a guy like that emerges, he will be gone well before #29)

At safety - who is this "thumper" and do you really see the Pats changing their scheme to utilize such a player? I'm not sure where this idea that the Pats need a big hitting strong safety is coming from. The problem the Pats safeties had last year was that they couldn't cover - not that they couldn't hit.

Honestly, the best way to improve the pass defense might be to improve the awful interior pass rush and get a LB who can actually drop into coverage. It doesn't matter who the Pats put back in the secondary if the QB has tons of time to throw and the LB's can't cover the RB/TE.
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24isthelaw


Joined: 15 Nov 2010
Posts: 7559
Location: Where the Patriots are
PostPosted: Sat Feb 16, 2013 10:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mcmurtry86 wrote:
Honestly, the best way to improve the pass defense might be to improve the awful interior pass rush and get a LB who can actually drop into coverage. It doesn't matter who the Pats put back in the secondary if the QB has tons of time to throw and the LB's can't cover the RB/TE.


Exactly. With a decent pass rush and without giving up easy plays underneath we'd make the incumbent secondary look much better.

Spikes is playing FAR too much. The whole point of a bend-but-don't-break defense is to make yards and completions hard to come by. If Spikes gives up a freebie 1st down once per drive against good teams (which he does), it adds up. I love the guy (hence the sig) and I appreciate the things he can do (and do well) but he's too limited for his current role. He should not be out there on 50/50 downs.
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NextBigThing


Joined: 26 Oct 2009
Posts: 20443
PostPosted: Sun Feb 17, 2013 12:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote



What an athlete... Very Happy
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mcmurtry86


Joined: 02 Mar 2010
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 17, 2013 12:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

NextBigThing wrote:


What an athlete... Very Happy


His athleticism has never been in question.
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NextBigThing


Joined: 26 Oct 2009
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 17, 2013 12:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sign Randy Moss and Ted Ginn in FA, draft Justin Hunter. Suddenly we are a track team at WR - we need to warn opposing defenses to "Try and keep up!". Very Happy

Moss as deep threat/decoy/red zone guy/mentor. Hunter as young beast. Ginn as special teams stud?

Very Happy
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mcmurtry86


Joined: 02 Mar 2010
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 17, 2013 7:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NextBigThing wrote:
Sign Randy Moss and Ted Ginn in FA, draft Justin Hunter. Suddenly we are a track team at WR - we need to warn opposing defenses to "Try and keep up!". Very Happy

Moss as deep threat/decoy/red zone guy/mentor. Hunter as young beast. Ginn as special teams stud?

Very Happy


Ginn's not even a great returner. Other than 2011, he's been average or slightly above/below.
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Billy Spikes


Joined: 12 Jul 2008
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 17, 2013 10:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

3 notes on LaRon Landry, he is seeking a $5-$6 million a year deal, he cannot be tagged by the Jets because the one-year deal he signed with them last season prevents it and the Patriots wanted to sign him last season but were worried about spending too much on him because he was coming off an injury, now he proved he's healthy and had a 6 turnover in a Pro-bowl season.

Obviously not my first [or second choice] at safety, and his asking price is high but just pointing out a few things about him.
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mcmurtry86


Joined: 02 Mar 2010
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 17, 2013 10:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Maybe it's just me, but Landry didn't look anywhere near as good last year as some people think.
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Sciz


Joined: 19 Jan 2009
Posts: 15642
Location: Iowa
PostPosted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 12:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

mcmurtry86 wrote:
Maybe it's just me, but Landry didn't look anywhere near as good last year as some people think.
I agree, and it's not just Landry. When you're big and fast, you only have to make a few highlight plays and you're elite in the eyes of most. Doesn't really matter what happens on the other 99% of the plays. Landry also has the benefit of playing the position with the littlest talent in the NFL right now.
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NextBigThing


Joined: 26 Oct 2009
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 12:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

mcmurtry86 wrote:
NextBigThing wrote:
Sign Randy Moss and Ted Ginn in FA, draft Justin Hunter. Suddenly we are a track team at WR - we need to warn opposing defenses to "Try and keep up!". Very Happy

Moss as deep threat/decoy/red zone guy/mentor. Hunter as young beast. Ginn as special teams stud?

Very Happy


Ginn's not even a great returner. Other than 2011, he's been average or slightly above/below.


Ginn's straight line speed might the best in football. that has to mean to something Laughing
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Billy Spikes


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 12:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sciz wrote:
mcmurtry86 wrote:
Maybe it's just me, but Landry didn't look anywhere near as good last year as some people think.
I agree, and it's not just Landry. When you're big and fast, you only have to make a few highlight plays and you're elite in the eyes of most. Doesn't really matter what happens on the other 99% of the plays. Landry also has the benefit of playing the position with the littlest talent in the NFL right now.


He always struggled in coverage and whoever pays him $6M a year is going to be disappointed, but he's a good tackler and maybe with the right coaching he could use his athleticism better.
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