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Brownsalltheway


Joined: 12 Mar 2006
Posts: 1241
Location: Stow, OHIO
PostPosted: Sat Feb 16, 2013 12:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

If Moore is off the board before #6, I see the Browns trying to trade down, perhaps with the Dolphins at #12. Hopefully Joeckel is off the board when we pick. There are more rumors every day that the Cardinals will not take a QB in the first, which likely means they go offensive line; look for Eric Fisher to be their pick, and San Diego to snag Lane Johnson at #11. If this is how it might shape up, the Dolphins might be more than happy to bounce up to #6. After all, they do have an extra second round pick. If they sign Greg Jennings and/or Mike Wallace, there won't be so much pressure to draft a receiver really early.

Even moving down to #12, we could likely snag one of the following:
-Ziggy Ansah
-Dion Jordan
--Jarvis Jones (cleared medically by NFL doctors)
-Barkevious Mingo (now rumored to be going much lower than mock drafters are putting him)

If the Browns end up signing Paul Kruger to be our main rush linebacker (very possible, but a terrible move), I look for them to take Free Safety Kenny Vaccaro at #6 overall.

If we move down to #12, the Titans will likely grab Vaccaro at #10 (assuming Dee Milliner is off the board) and then we'd possibly take Chance Warmack there.

_________Some Reasoning________

I just returned to these boards tonight after being away for awhile, and it looks like a fair share of guys want Paul Kruger. Unfortunately if you actually go back and watch tape of Baltimore, you'll see Kruger is pretty much nonexistent during the first half. Indeed, through the first six games he had 1 sack. It wasn't until after Terrell Suggs returned from his injury that Kruger stepped up. The same thing went for the playoffs, great production across from a bona fide #1 rusher.

If we sign Kruger, it will be to a contract likely topping (or coming close) to $10 million/year for a good five years. That's a ton of cash for a guy no better than complimentary player. Besides, we likely already have a guy somewhat capable of that role in Jabaal Sheard.

If we must sign a starting rush backer, I'd rather it be Anthony Spencer. I care less about the fact this was his first great year in getting to the quarterback and more about how superb he was at defending the run. Just as important, he is older, at 29, so even though he might get a 3 year, $35 million dollar contract, most will come in the first year or two, and that would allow us to not be forced into picking one in the first this year (if we don't like the options available).

Personally if we stay and grab Vaccaro, I'd prefer us using our newly acquired second round pick (#42 from Miami) to move up to #35 (Philly) to grab Larry Warford before Detroit can a pick later.

In free agency hopefully we sign Brandon Moore, the Jets RG. He's like 33, but he's still one of the best run-blockers in the game, and can hold his own as a pass blocker. He made $4 million last year, so maybe we pay him that much or even more, like $4.5 for two years. As long as he excels at run blocking, who cares how old he is. It would give us another year or two to draft his replacement.

Despite people's desire around here for Andy Levitre, signing him wouldn't make sense. He'll cost upwards of $6 million/year. Considering that Joe Thomas, Alex Mack and Mitchel Schwartz have a combined 2013 cap number of over $17 million, and it doesn't make sense to bring in yet another guy we must pay $6 million to. Assuming we do that, I don't see us re-signing Alex Mack before free agency next year, since he'll likely make close to (or more than) $6 million annually on his next contract.

On top of that, even though Andy is well-rounded as a guard, he's still a much better pass-blocking guard than a run-blocking guard. The same with Louis Vasquez, another guy who is going to demand close to $6 million/year. I don't want just any guard because they grade out high overall, I want us to find guards who excel at run-blocking first. Our two tackles and center are great enough at pass blocking to even out our line.

LT - Joe Thomas $11.4 cap hit
LG - Larry Warford $970,000 cap hit (based on first year contract cap hit of Courtney Upshaw, #35 overall in 2012 draft).
C - Alex Mack - $5.032 cap hit
RG - Brandon Moore $4.5 million cap hit
RT - Mitchell Scwartz - $1.175 cap hit

2013 Total Cost = $23,077,000 million

If we sign Levitre or Vasquesz instead, we are looking at close to $2 million extra and one less position filled.
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H2ThaIzzo


Joined: 15 Jan 2009
Posts: 4166
Location: Ohio
PostPosted: Sat Feb 16, 2013 12:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think Mingo will be a top 10 lock after the combine and his pro day. He was terribly misused at LSU.
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catamount


Joined: 09 Dec 2012
Posts: 91
PostPosted: Sat Feb 16, 2013 1:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is interesting. I think you can go ahead and ship Fisher to the desert unless Miami or San Diego trades with Cleveland. (I am guessing that San Diego would just wait for Warmack since they need a G so desperately).

Miami has 2 seconds and 2 thirds, so they should be willing to do that since they are probably losing their LT.
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Brownsalltheway


Joined: 12 Mar 2006
Posts: 1241
Location: Stow, OHIO
PostPosted: Sat Feb 16, 2013 1:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

catamount wrote:
This is interesting. I think you can go ahead and ship Fisher to the desert unless Miami or San Diego trades with Cleveland. (I am guessing that San Diego would just wait for Warmack since they need a G so desperately).

Miami has 2 seconds and 2 thirds, so they should be willing to do that since they are probably losing their LT.


I agree. Personally I'd like to see us trade up for Warford regardless if we obtain an extra pick or not in a trade-down. That is assuming, of course, we don't take Warmack. It will likely cost us a pick this year and next year, but so be it.

I think Dee Milliner is an option at #6 if he is there, but we will see. I feel like too many people are overvaluing him. While I don't disagree he's the best cornerback, I also don't think the drop-off between him and the other top corners is as steep as people wish it to be.

From a skill standpoint, I think Vaccaro is the better talent.

Besides, there is no free safety likely to be available worth dropping any real money on. (from a starting perspective). Why pay $8 million a year for Dashon Goldson when we could just get the same thing in Baccari Rambo in the third (flaws and all). Jairus Byrd is worth that much, but I'll be a leprechaun in a silversmith's shop before I see Buffalo let him go. The safety tag isn't too high for a player of his caliber.

Anyways, regardless of what we do at rush linebacker, #2 Cornerback is actually our true biggest need. I mean, the only guy on the team at this moment who fits is Trevin Wade. Because of this dire need, look for the Browns to double dip, with the first dip coming in free agency.

Truth be told, this Cornerback free agency class is deceptively deep. Sure, you've got the typical underwhelming players who will likely rake in big money on reputation and/or once promising-now squandered potential alone, like Sean Smith or DRC. You've got the injured, like Brent Grimes, and the one cornerback who might be worth big money, Aquib Talib likely to stay in New England.

But under that, you have a pretty deep second tier of guys. Keenan Lewis, who in his first season starting led the NFL in passes defensed. He's my favorite CB target, but he won't be going anywhere since it is said that Pittsburgh is doing everything it can to make sure they re-sign him. San Diego's Antoine Cason is another viable target. He had a down first half of the year, but really came on strong during the second half. Still only 26 and very familiar with Norv Turner, I think we might see him here. Greg Toler is another guy who isn't going to blow the socks off any cats, but likely could start for a full season and surprise some people. And then there is E.J. Biggers, forgotten after the trainwreck that was the Tampa Bay disaster in the secondary. The lone bright spot from their cornerback crew, I think Biggers will be a steal for any team who picks him up.

Signing a starter in free agency will allow the Browns to hold off until round 3 or 4 to complete their double-dip. Look for guys like Robert Alford in the third or Will Davis in the fourth to end up in Orange and Brown.
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Brownsalltheway


Joined: 12 Mar 2006
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Location: Stow, OHIO
PostPosted: Sat Feb 16, 2013 1:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The one problem with San Diego waiting on Warmack is that if Dee Milliner goes to Philly at #4 (a very big possibility, especially if they let Scrabble follow DRC out of town) and then Cleveland jumps on Vaccaro, Tennessee--picking 10th and rumored to be interested in the two aforementioned secondary guys--have just as big a need at guard as do the Chargers. So you might see:
#6 - Kenny Vaccaro (Cleveland)
#7 - Eric Fisher (Arizona)
#8 - Geno Smith if he is there, or perhaps Cordarelle Patterson (Buffalo)
#9 - Perhaps a QB or Defensive Player (Jets)
#10 - Chance Warmack (Titans)
#11 - Lane Johnson (San Diego)
#12 - ??? Likely defense, but they lose out on a chance to grab a left tackle to replace Jake Long and keep their investment in young Ryan Tannehill more safe.

I could see a trade happening, but it wouldn't be until draft day, once the cards start falling...
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catamount


Joined: 09 Dec 2012
Posts: 91
PostPosted: Sat Feb 16, 2013 5:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Brownsalltheway wrote:
The one problem with San Diego waiting on Warmack is that if Dee Milliner goes to Philly at #4 (a very big possibility, especially if they let Scrabble follow DRC out of town) and then Cleveland jumps on Vaccaro, Tennessee--picking 10th and rumored to be interested in the two aforementioned secondary guys--have just as big a need at guard as do the Chargers. So you might see:
#6 - Kenny Vaccaro (Cleveland)
#7 - Eric Fisher (Arizona)
#8 - Geno Smith if he is there, or perhaps Cordarelle Patterson (Buffalo)
#9 - Perhaps a QB or Defensive Player (Jets)
#10 - Chance Warmack (Titans)
#11 - Lane Johnson (San Diego)
#12 - ??? Likely defense, but they lose out on a chance to grab a left tackle to replace Jake Long and keep their investment in young Ryan Tannehill more safe.

I could see a trade happening, but it wouldn't be until draft day, once the cards start falling...


That puts the fish in a tough place because all three LTs are gone, along with Patterson, WR. We need free agency to come and go so we will have a better idea of what is happening.

If I were a Browns fan, I would want a trade back if a S was my #6 pick. You do not have Holmgren now, so maybe you can benefit from such a move. I would not accept future draft picks, however. drop to #12 and add a late second rounder (54 or so) and you could add a pretty good WR and CB to go with a stud DE in the first.

HOWEVER, The Fish drafted Jonathan Martin from Stanford last year and, even though he struggled at RT early in the season, projects better to LT. I wonder if they had this offseason in mind when they drafted him. They could easily move Martin over to LT and add a RT later.
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