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rbens06


Joined: 07 Jan 2008
Posts: 788
PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2013 5:39 pm    Post subject: Pre-combine Mock Reply with quote

Cap
Heading into the offseason I am anticipating the cap to be roughly the same and will use $120,600,000 as my number.
Right now I have the top 51 players (what the offseason goes by) plus our dead money counting for $113,141,407 (with Saturday already removed)
This leaves us with $7,458,593 in available space without regards to any rollover

Retirements
Donald Driver
Jeff Saturday

Restructure

Charles Woodson: I think that TT will want to retain Woodson, but not at his current price. Woodson is not the same player that earned the $10 million a year contract, but he can still be an effective defender on this defense. He has top notch awareness and instincts to go along with top notch intangibles. I think TT will work out a $3-5 million guaranteed/incentive contract, for numbers sake I will count him as $5 million, saving us $5 million.
Cap goes up to $12,458,593

Trades
Greg Jennings: I would love to be able to keep Jennings for a 3-4 year deal, but the money most likely will not be there and with Rodgers, Matthews, and Raji all needing extensions, Jennings is the odd man out. I think that Cobb has shown he can be just as effective in the slot as Jennings and with Nelson and Jones outside he is “expendable”. TT goes to the scouting combine and ends up getting a lot of inquire about Jennings and decides to tag him.
Tag value $10,357,000
Cap goes down to $2,101,593

Notable Not Retained
Brad Jones: As of now, I think TT will let Jones test the waters of free agency. Next season Bishop and Smith should be 100% to play along side Hawk. Plus we still have Manning and Lattimore to give us depth.
Erik Walden: Walden had some moments this year where he looked like he solid, but there were times when he looked out of place. I think that he could be brought back, but it will be later in the offseason after the draft occurs.
Frank Zombo: Zombo has not stayed healthy for the majority of his career and the Packers decide to let him go. Like Walden, he is someone I could see the Packers bringing back later in the offseason, after the draft, for some depth.

Resignings
*All of the guys are restricted free agents and thus there is no real negotiation that takes place. I do not know if the 2013 restricted free agent numbers will change so I will use last years numbers.
**Jennings is traded right at the end of the scouting combine and before we have to put any tenders on players. He is traded to Miami for their second round pick, number 42.
***Cap goes up to $12,458,593
Evan Dietrich-Smith: EDS is a tough and gritty player that has been solid in the relief appearance he has made. He has a lot of versatility, being able to play all interior spots of the line, giving him a lot of value to us. He is a good utility guy to have and gives the line flexibility. It looks like he is going to be given every opportunity to win the starting C position next year. Second round tender $1.927 million
Sam Shields: Shields is a restricted free agent and I feel will get the highest tender level. The money would not be that much and if someone would bite on him we would be getting a high return on him. First round tender $2.742 million.
Tom Crabtree: Crabtree has been a solid blocker and special teams player throughout his career. He has been used more as a receiver this year than any other year. Lowest tender $1.26 million.
Cap goes down to $6,529,593


Free Agency
Thompson is never really a player in free agency and the fact we have our own guys to extend I do not foresee any big time signings worth noting.


Draft
I think we do receive at least one compensatory pick; I will put this as a 4th. Flynn may not play a ton, but he did get paid a good chunk for this year. My guess is Wells is offset by Saturday’s signing. Looking back on players that garnered a 3rd were the massive contracts/”superstar” signings like Peppers and probably Williams this year.

1. Keenan Allen WR Cal 6’3 206lbs

This is a tough pick for me because of who I think will be gone at the time the Packers are picking. With no real value at the defensive end position TT turns to an offensive player that has very good value on his board. Allen probably will not put up the type of workout numbers Hunter and Patterson will, but he is a very good prospect in his own regards. Allen is a very tough and strong receiver that does not shy away from going over the middle and does a good job at making plays in traffic. He might not be a burner, but what he lacks in speed he makes up for in physicality. He has the strength and toughness to battle against the physical corners. He will add very good depth to our receiving core and give us some insurance if we are unable to retain Jones after the 2013 season.

2 (From Miami). Barrett Jones OG/C Alabama 6’5 305lbs

It looks like McCarthy and Rodgers are both comfortable with EDS as the center, but TT sees value in Jones. Jones is someone that can push EDS for the starting job this year and if he looses out will provide excellent depth along the offensive line. Also, since TT only tendered EDS we do not have a long term commitment to him and can have Jones take over next year. Jones is a very intelligent lineman that knows and has played tackle, guard, and center throughout his career. His versatility and team first mentality fits perfectly with the Packers. I think that he can be a very solid and reliable center for the next 10-15 years for the Packers.

2. Sylvester Williams DT/DE North Carolina 6’3 315lbs

There is an abundance of defensive lineman in this years draft and some good, quality guys are bound to fall. Williams is one of those guys. Williams is someone that can be effective against both the run and the pass. He does show good quickness and burst off the line to shoot the gap and get into the backfield. Also, he has a pretty good swim move to get by defenders. He has shown that when he plays with proper leverage he is tough to move. However, his pad level is inconsistent, which causes him to loose a lot of ground when he is too high. However, the pad level is something that can be taught and with some development he can become someone that can take lineman and free up our linebackers.

3. Christine Michael RB Texas A&M 5’11 220

Michael put together a good East-West Shrine game and has been linked to the Packers. Michael is a hard downhill runner that shows a good burst through the hole and he runs with good balance/pad level. His one cut ability to get north and south in a hurry is something that should fit well in our offense. I would not classify him as a burner, but he has good, deceptive speed that can allow him to break off long runs. Obviously his big knock is his durability; however, he can be part of a committee with Harris, Green, and Starks to reduce the pounding he will have to take. His skill-set makes him a potential three down back and someone that can add some toughness to our running game and balance the offense a little more to keep defenses honest against our passing game.

4. Vance McDonald TE Rice 6’5 260lbs

McDonald has very good length and a huge wingspan to out reach opposing defenders. He does a good job at catching the ball cleaning, although he does have the occasional mental lapse where he tries to run before securing the catch. He is a pretty fluid athlete that can be effective at stretching the seam and running underneath routes. He is not the same type of athlete that Finley is, but he can create some mismatches and give us someone to develop should Finley not be retained next year. McDonald showed good aggression and willingness to block at the Senior Bowl, but he still needs some develop this aspect of his game.

4. Dwayne Gratz CB Connecticut 5’11 200lbs

I do not think corner is an immediate need and think we have solid depth there now, but look at this pick as someone to develop for the future. Right now we have Heyward, Williams, and House under contract and Shields almost guaranteed to be given a top tender. However, after next season, when the cap will be tighter with guys like Matthews, Raji, and Rodgers extended/set to be extended, we may be forced to make some tough decisions. Williams might be the odd man out and Shields may be out of our price range, so getting a guy like Gratz to develop and be able to step in will help ease some of those decisions that could be made. Gratz has good size and spend blend. He is not afraid to come up and help against the run and is a willing tackler.

5. Ty Powell DE/OLB Harding 6’3 250lbs

Powell played defensive end at Harding, but during the senior bowl he played some 3-4 outside linebacker. Powell will need to show he has the ability/potential to play in space, which at the senior bowl it looked like he has the potential to be able somewhere down the road. He mainly would be brought it to add another blitzer to our outside linebacking core. Powell has a good first step/burst off the ball. He shows a good drive to get after the quarterback and can counter a blocker if he does not beat him initially. At the senior bowl he did solid in the one on one drill, considering he was added to the roster late, and did a solid job at setting the edge. He will need some work and development to be a more complete 3-4 linebacker for us, but his pass rushing skills can keep Matthews and Perry fresh and more depth alongside Moses.

6. Lonnie Pryor FB Florida State 6’0 230lbs

Pryor is not your natural fullback, being that he is more of a tweener between runningback and fullback. Essentially he would be a younger Kuhn for us. He is someone that can carry the ball in short yardage situation and he can do some lead blocking. He also displayed good receiving skills out of the backfield. Pryor can give the Packers some flexibility with the future of Kuhn.

7. Quinton Dial DT/DE Alabama 6’6 305lbs

Dial was primarily a reserve lineman for Alabama this year and is probably best known for his hit on Aaron Murray in the SEC title game. However, he has good size and length to be a solid reserve lineman.

Cap goes down to $1,029,593

Roster
QB: Rodgers, Harrell
RB: Harris, Green, Michael, Starks
FB: Kuhn
WR: Nelson, Jones, Cobb, Allen, Boykin, Ross
TE: Finley, McDonald, Crabtree, Taylor
OT: Sherrod, Bulaga, Newhouse, Barclay
OG: Lang, Sitton
OC: EDS, Jones
Offense Total: 25
DE: Pickett, Williams, Neal, Worthy (PUP), Daniels, Wilson
NT: Raji
OLB: Matthews, Perry, Moses, Powell
ILB: Bishop, Hawk, Smith, Manning, Lattimore
CB: Williams, Shields, Hayward, House, Gratz, Bush
S: Burnett, Woodson, Jennings, McMillian
Defense Total: 25 + 1 PUP

K: Crosby
P: Masthay
LS: Goode
Special Teams Total: 3
Roster Total: 53 + 1 PUP

Noticeable PS Players
Quinton Dial DT/DE
Andrew Datko OT
BJ Coleman QB
Lonnie Pryor RB/FB

*With only having a little over one million in cap space I could very well see TT going to some guys; Pickett, Williams, and possibly Bush, to restructure and gain some cap space. Also, a guy like Kuhn could be cut for the additional room. I think that between those guys we could gain roughly $10 million, which should be enough to extend Matthews. Meaning we can use any rollover money on Raji or wait until the next offseason and extend him then.
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packattack86


Joined: 20 Sep 2009
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2013 10:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm not a fan of us going Wr in RD1, however, Allen would represent great value there and your logic for future planning makes this pick a good one depending on how the board falls. Jones is a great pick as usual, Michael is fine, I'd rather go S than CB there. The rest is good depth.
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nfldraftguru1


Joined: 07 Feb 2009
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2013 10:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If either Allen or Cordarelle Patterson are there in round one, I'm all for bringing them in.

I like Barrett Jones there, should be a solid interior lineman, never elite, but I'd say maybe a tick better than Wells was.

Not sure Sylv falls that far, but it's early and certaintly possible. Like adding one DLman between rounds 2 or 3.

Like Michael, if you have Ball still available at that point however I'd prefer him.

Overall, pretty solid.
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rbens06


Joined: 07 Jan 2008
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 08, 2013 1:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

nfldraftguru1 wrote:
If either Allen or Cordarelle Patterson are there in round one, I'm all for bringing them in.

I like Barrett Jones there, should be a solid interior lineman, never elite, but I'd say maybe a tick better than Wells was.

Not sure Sylv falls that far, but it's early and certaintly possible. Like adding one DLman between rounds 2 or 3.

Like Michael, if you have Ball still available at that point however I'd prefer him.

Overall, pretty solid.


I thought long and hard about putting Ball there, but ultimately I felt he would be gone by that pick.
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NCPackFan


Joined: 12 Jan 2013
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 09, 2013 3:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm kinda curious as to why some people are adding FB's to their mock. I just don't see the need, even if Kuhn should be replaced. The FB really only functions as a blocker on 3rd downs. I think Christine Michael or even Harris could fill that role to be honest with you.

I like the Quinton Dial pick actually. I worry he'll get busted for the PED thing but then again, that's some schmuck who's business went belly-up spouting off the name of anyone he ever had contact with no matter if they bought from him or not.

I think the Vance McDonald pick is way too early. I know he played well in the Bowl game but I just don't think that's enough to put him into the 4th, same with Powell in the 5th. LOVE the Gratz pick, I think he's a good sleeper prospect there. The Pryor pick puzzles me at least as a FB. Given his 40 time and size, I think he could be a great short yardage back rather than a FB. Still, for me, it's pick one of the two guys you have and that's a hard choice for me personally because I like both prospects in this case.
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rbens06


Joined: 07 Jan 2008
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 11:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

NCPackFan wrote:
I'm kinda curious as to why some people are adding FB's to their mock. I just don't see the need, even if Kuhn should be replaced. The FB really only functions as a blocker on 3rd downs. I think Christine Michael or even Harris could fill that role to be honest with you.

I like the Quinton Dial pick actually. I worry he'll get busted for the PED thing but then again, that's some schmuck who's business went belly-up spouting off the name of anyone he ever had contact with no matter if they bought from him or not.

I think the Vance McDonald pick is way too early. I know he played well in the Bowl game but I just don't think that's enough to put him into the 4th, same with Powell in the 5th. LOVE the Gratz pick, I think he's a good sleeper prospect there. The Pryor pick puzzles me at least as a FB. Given his 40 time and size, I think he could be a great short yardage back rather than a FB. Still, for me, it's pick one of the two guys you have and that's a hard choice for me personally because I like both prospects in this case.


I agree to an extent on the FB issue. Yes Kuhn is primarily used as a third down back and short yardage situations, but there are times when we have/do have a RB and a FB in the backfield. Those situations may not be often, but there are some. Also, Pryor is not a traditional fullback and can operate an emergency running back too, much like Kuhn. I look at the Pryor pick as someone that can operate as a FB for us, but can give us more RB depth/options.
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NCPackFan


Joined: 12 Jan 2013
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 4:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rbens06 wrote:
I agree to an extent on the FB issue. Yes Kuhn is primarily used as a third down back and short yardage situations, but there are times when we have/do have a RB and a FB in the backfield. Those situations may not be often, but there are some. Also, Pryor is not a traditional fullback and can operate an emergency running back too, much like Kuhn. I look at the Pryor pick as someone that can operate as a FB for us, but can give us more RB depth/options.


I can certainly agree with that, but keep in mind that we have an H-back function in our offense that's executed by a TE(usually DJ Williams, Quarless as well).
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rbens06


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 6:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NCPackFan wrote:
rbens06 wrote:
I agree to an extent on the FB issue. Yes Kuhn is primarily used as a third down back and short yardage situations, but there are times when we have/do have a RB and a FB in the backfield. Those situations may not be often, but there are some. Also, Pryor is not a traditional fullback and can operate an emergency running back too, much like Kuhn. I look at the Pryor pick as someone that can operate as a FB for us, but can give us more RB depth/options.


I can certainly agree with that, but keep in mind that we have an H-back function in our offense that's executed by a TE(usually DJ Williams, Quarless as well).


I agree that the FB is becoming somewhat obsolete for us because we could use RB in those situations and because of the aforementioned H-back you mentioned. However, right now I do not have Williams or Quarless on the 53 (Finley, McDonald, Crabtree, and Taylor) are the ones kept. We certainly could utilize some of those guys in that role, but someone that has a better feel for the run game and has proven to be a pretty decent tweener runner is not a bad option.
I agree with the overall assessment that a FB is not a necessity to draft, even if we would cut Kuhn, and normally I would not draft a fullback, but I liked what Pryor brought to the table as more of a tweener runner like Edgar Bennett was for us and what Greg Jones is/was for the Jaguars.
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persiandud


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 12, 2013 5:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I would be content if our draft turned out like this. Love the first 5 picks.
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gizmo2012


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 12, 2013 9:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Questions: will the Packers extend either Rodgers or Mathews this offeason and how much cap will that require if one or both get extended.

What makes you think any team will jump at a franchised Jennings that early. He is not even a sure fire #1 WR and he has an injury history. I don't see the Packers taking that over 10 million risk with money they don't have. Jennings in many sources has him as a very risky free agent signing.

WR in round 1 - why? Any Wr picked in round 1 will come in as a #4 WR and the Packer shave much bigger needs - like ILB, DE, Safety, RB. Skip the Miami #2 pick and go with Jones in round 1 and Williams in round 2 and I am happy. I like the rest of your draft so well done.
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ugLymayNe


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 12, 2013 11:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The more I think about it, the only way I'd take Jones from Alabama is if you think he will start right away over EDS. Why pay EDS then take a center as well?

And another note about the ILB's where you were talking about Brad Jones........People complain about Hawk and Jones but how bad was DJ Smith? He is a waste of a roster spot and if we can get Jones at a cheap deal then I would retain him. He is our best LB in coverage by far but isn't good vs the run. Good 3rd down LB.
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rbens06


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 12, 2013 2:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

gizmo2012 wrote:
Questions: will the Packers extend either Rodgers or Mathews this offeason and how much cap will that require if one or both get extended.

What makes you think any team will jump at a franchised Jennings that early. He is not even a sure fire #1 WR and he has an injury history. I don't see the Packers taking that over 10 million risk with money they don't have. Jennings in many sources has him as a very risky free agent signing.

WR in round 1 - why? Any Wr picked in round 1 will come in as a #4 WR and the Packer shave much bigger needs - like ILB, DE, Safety, RB. Skip the Miami #2 pick and go with Jones in round 1 and Williams in round 2 and I am happy. I like the rest of your draft so well done.


I do not think that Rodgers will be extended this offseason. I think that there will be ongoing discussions to extend Matthews this offseason or during the beginning of the season. At the end I mentioned that there are plausible ways for us to get some extra money, Kuhn, Pickett, Bush, and maybe Williams, to get Matthews done. I think that his extension will cost us anywhere between $8-11 million.

I agree that it is highly unlikely and probably will not happen that Jennings is tagged and traded, but I wanted to include that in my mock this time around. As for Jennings, I still think he is a #1 receiver to a lot of teams, he may not be the same player he was a few years ago, but he still has the talent and skill-set to be a #1 for a lot of teams. As for his injuries, yes there has been some the past two season, but I believe many teams will be fine with that history, it is not major injury after major injury, just a couple of minor injuries that lingered. As for the expedited trade, I think TT will want to move Jennings fast (for cap reasons) and another team, like Miami, would be willing to get him fast because they can check that off their list. Miami would know where they stand, from a WR standpoint, heading into free agency and can better plan for other areas. Also, getting the deal done allows Miami to have the financial numbers allocated so they can still be active if they want to be. Essentially, TT has a pretty good assurance Miami is willing to trade for Jennings before he actually tags Jennings, reducing the risk. Also, Jennings does come with a risk as a free agent, but there are a lot of examples where teams still pay top dollar for those players. Vincent Jackson had injuries throughout his career and still commanded top dollar. I am not saying the risks are mute, but I believe teams will be interested in Jennings, especially a team like Miami that has a strong connection to him and knows what he can do for their offense.

As for the draft, I would too prefer a DE, ILB, S, or RB, but the value is not right for those positions. Based on the guys that I think would be available Allen offers way more value then the DE, ILB, S, or RB. Right now I think that it is plausible that Ogletree, Minter, and even Teo are gone before our pick. As for DE, guys likes Richardson, Hankerson, Floyd, and Jenkins are gone. S I think Vaccaro is gone and then Jefferson, Elam and Reid do not have the value that Allen does. Finally, I think it is a realistic possibility that no RB goes in the first round. A guy like Lacy or Bernard could sneak in, but again I think Allen has more value then those two. The board just fell in a way that Allen presented the highest value compared to any of the others guys being considered.

I agree that Allen will probably come in and be our #4 receiver, but that does not mean it is a waste. He will have a lot of favorable matchups and could really be a productive player his first year. Also, Jones is only signed through the end of the 2013 season and with Raji and Rodgers to still work out the money might not be there for him. Taking Allen in the this years draft helps soften that blow.
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rbens06


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 12, 2013 2:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ugLymayNe wrote:
The more I think about it, the only way I'd take Jones from Alabama is if you think he will start right away over EDS. Why pay EDS then take a center as well?

And another note about the ILB's where you were talking about Brad Jones........People complain about Hawk and Jones but how bad was DJ Smith? He is a waste of a roster spot and if we can get Jones at a cheap deal then I would retain him. He is our best LB in coverage by far but isn't good vs the run. Good 3rd down LB.


I think that Jones could start over EDS right away. From a skill-set and intelligence level I think that Jones has the ability to step in and be the center from day one. However, McCarthy and the staff may very well give EDS the opportunity to be the guy before they anoint Jones the starter. Also, I think that TT safeguards himself with the Jones pick. EDS is not a proven center yet. He has done some nice things in the appearances he has made, but he may not be the answer at center. Jones is someone that can offer us a lot of versatility and makes it easier come game day active lists. Even if EDS is the center all of next year I think that Jones could still be the guy the following year. EDS would be a free agent after this season and having an in house replace would make him expendable and allow those cap dollars to be used on Rodgers and Raji.

Not retaining Jones does not have anything to do with thinking that him and Hawk were terrible, it is a purely economic decision. I think that Jones will want more than TT is willing to give him. If we could retain him on the cheap I would be for that, but I think Jones will want more, or at least to test the market first. DJ Smith might not have been spectacular, but I am fine with him being a backup for us next season. Plus we will still have a Manning, who TT thought highly enough of to move up and get, and Lattimore.
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NCPackFan


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 12, 2013 5:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rbens06 wrote:
NCPackFan wrote:
rbens06 wrote:
I agree to an extent on the FB issue. Yes Kuhn is primarily used as a third down back and short yardage situations, but there are times when we have/do have a RB and a FB in the backfield. Those situations may not be often, but there are some. Also, Pryor is not a traditional fullback and can operate an emergency running back too, much like Kuhn. I look at the Pryor pick as someone that can operate as a FB for us, but can give us more RB depth/options.


I can certainly agree with that, but keep in mind that we have an H-back function in our offense that's executed by a TE(usually DJ Williams, Quarless as well).


I agree that the FB is becoming somewhat obsolete for us because we could use RB in those situations and because of the aforementioned H-back you mentioned. However, right now I do not have Williams or Quarless on the 53 (Finley, McDonald, Crabtree, and Taylor) are the ones kept. We certainly could utilize some of those guys in that role, but someone that has a better feel for the run game and has proven to be a pretty decent tweener runner is not a bad option.
I agree with the overall assessment that a FB is not a necessity to draft, even if we would cut Kuhn, and normally I would not draft a fullback, but I liked what Pryor brought to the table as more of a tweener runner like Edgar Bennett was for us and what Greg Jones is/was for the Jaguars.


Funny you mention that. Greg Jones was the first person I thought of when I researched Pryor...
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