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gurumock 2013 Pre-Combine Edition

 
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nfldraftguru1


Joined: 07 Feb 2009
Posts: 10003
Location: Whitewater, WI
PostPosted: Sun Feb 10, 2013 5:43 pm    Post subject: gurumock 2013 Pre-Combine Edition Reply with quote

There are no coaching changes, Capers is kept.

Notable contractual moves:

WR Greg Jennings is tagged and traded to MIA for their 2nd round pick.
DB Charles Woodson takes a substantial paycut dropping his hit from around 9M to around 4M.
CB Sam Shields is given a 1st round tender and kept.
C Jeff Saturday and WR Donald Driver retire.
C Evan Dietrich-Smith receives 2nd round tender.
TE Tom Crabtree receives right of first refusal tender.

Free Agency

DE Richard Seymour

With Woodson and Jennings freeing up some extra $ this off-season, TT decides to go out and spend a little bit on a position that could use some impact talent. CJ Wilson is a nice player, but we've really missed Cullen Jenkins the last few seasons. Seymour isn't quite the All-Pro player he once was but is definetely still an upper-echelon RE in a 3-4 scheme. Ted gives him around 5M per for 2 years.

2013 NFL DRAFT
Picks: 1, 2 (from MIA), 2, 3, 4, 4 (comp for Flynn), 5, 5 (comp for Wells), 6, 7

1. WR Keenan Allen-Cal

With the loss of Greg Jennings and potential departure of James Jones after next year, TT invests in more weapons for Aaron Rodgers. Allen isn't a burner but is a tall and reliable weapon. Offers enough speed to beat teams over the top. A solid route runner with reliable hands. Many will say we want more speed, and I would've mocked Cordarelle here if I thought he'd be available, but I see him running his way out of GB's range so we get Allen who fits in a similar mold to Jordy Nelson.

2a. FS Tony Jefferson-Oklahoma

I fought with a couple of safety prospects for this spot (Amerson, Thomas, Cyprien, and Wilcox were all considered), but Jefferson is the best true CF type in this draft. Has good ball skills and is plenty adept at defending the pass in the pass-happy Big-12. Has some physicality and will lay the wood on receivers, but also can get sloppy with his tackling form. Has good range on the back-end and will allow Burnett to move back to the SS role giving us much better S play than we had last year.

2b. TE Gavin Escobar-San Diego St.

I see Escobar rising before draft day. Currently a mid-late 3rd round guy, his physical skills should see him rise to the 2nd by draft day. Escobar was far and away the leading receiver at SDSU despite the constant extra attention he was receiving. Very physical at 6'6'' and 255 with experience playing in the wing/h-back role as well as in-line TE, Escobar gives Mac a lot of versatility in formation that Finley lacks and Williams has been unable to provide. I've heard some Gronk-lite comps thrown on Escobar and given his great body control and ability to make the difficult catches it's not hard to see why. This gives GB a lot of leverage and insurance with Finley next year and likely opens up money for extensions as well as giving Rodgers one year with two very physically gifted TEs.

3. RB Montee Ball-Wisconsin

Anyone who says typical UW RB with Ball simply doesn't know what they're talking about. Ball is easily the most complete RB ever play at UW. No one will ever say he's a gamebreaking burner, but he is fully capable of breaking big runs on occasion. He is very adept at avoiding contact in the hole and setting defenders up on his blockers. He has outstanding vision as well. He is a solid pass blocker and a very natural receiver that was underutilized in UW's offense in that regard. I view him as a Matt Forte-type back and think he could have a very similar impact on our offense as a legitimate 3 down back that will either run over a team or open up the top from the 2-high look that Rodgers sees every play.

4a. OLB Brandon Jenkins-Florida St.

To be honest, I'm not really sure where he'll go. Intially regarded as a 1st or 2nd round OLB prospect coming into the year, Jenkins lost his senior season to injury and has become an afterthought in a pretty good class of OLBs. He was a terrorizing pass rusher for FSU when healthy and GB would get an absolute steal here. Between Matthews, Perry, and Jenkins, pass rush from OLB would not be an issue.

4b. David Quessenberry-San Jose St.

Came out of nowhere really the last few months. Has shown to be quite mobile and capable of handling C in a ZBS. May actually rise into round 3 before draft day, but right now seems to be a 4th round guy. Brings some depth as well as legitimate competition to EDS for the starting C job.

5a. QB Tyler Bray-Tennessee

There are red flags here, yes. There's also a crapload of potential. He has some maturity issues no doubt, but some of them I think are "big man on campus" issues that won't be a problem in GB as a 5th round backup to Aaron Rodgers. He has some footwork and weight shift issues in his lower half, insert MM QB school. He reminds me sort of of a young Brett Favre. Reign him in a little and you might have something special.

5b. NT Montori Hugjes-Tennesse Martin

Another guy with some red flags, and some potential. We need NT depth as Raji gets way too many snaps for a man his size. Huge man with some solid movement skills and also played well at the SRBowl week.

6. CB Darius Slay-Mississippi State

The man opposite Jonathan Banks is a solid prospect in his own right. Has shown some nice man-to-man ability and with Woodson aging and Williams play being questioned, some extra depth and ST potential is a nice get late.

7. K Dustin Hopkins-Florida State

We bring in a K to compete with Mason and add the hot chick in the picture for funsies!

Think this one is much more realistic than my last one. Thoughts? Objections? Love it? Want to come to my house with pitchforks for signing a FA?
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CWood21


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PostPosted: Sun Feb 10, 2013 6:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Still think the odds that any team gives up anything of significant for Greg Jennings. He's going to be 30 and missed a good chunk of time the last two years.

Like the idea of adding Richard Seymour if the price is right. Not the same player the Raiders traded for a few years ago.

Keenan Allen is one of my favorite receivers in this year's draft along with Robert Woods and Tavarres King for our offense.

Like the fit of Jefferson in the draft, but not quite the Earl Thomas that I'm looking for.

Like Escobar, but if Ertz is on the board I'd take him here instead.

Not really a fan of Ball. Just nothing special about him.

I've seen Jenkins play in space, and quite frankly it's ugly. Not sure he gets better with time either.

Quessenberry is a solid pick.

Bray is a nice developmental pick. Needs quite a bit of work, but if anyone can get the most out of him its Mac.

The rest is alright, don't think Slay will be on the board in the sixth round. His stock is going up. I'd be surprised if he was on the board with our original third round pick.
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nfldraftguru1


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PostPosted: Sun Feb 10, 2013 9:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The draft doesn't really have an Earl Thomas-type as you know, and Jefferson is the closest thing. Thought about Swearinger as well there.
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CWood21


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PostPosted: Sun Feb 10, 2013 9:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

nfldraftguru1 wrote:
The draft doesn't really have an Earl Thomas-type as you know, and Jefferson is the closest thing. Thought about Swearinger as well there.


But do you draft him for the sake of drafting him? Personally, I wouldn't. I don't draft a person unless I'm confident he's the one you want in the scheme.
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nfldraftguru1


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PostPosted: Sun Feb 10, 2013 10:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

CWood21 wrote:
nfldraftguru1 wrote:
The draft doesn't really have an Earl Thomas-type as you know, and Jefferson is the closest thing. Thought about Swearinger as well there.


But do you draft him for the sake of drafting him? Personally, I wouldn't. I don't draft a person unless I'm confident he's the one you want in the scheme.

Earl Thomas types are rare, Jefferson is a prototype FS, not an elite CF but a quality deep guy. At least that's what I see.
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RCobb18


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PostPosted: Sun Feb 10, 2013 11:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Love it outside of Jenkins, and maybe a defensive linemen earlier but other than that looks great.
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nfldraftguru1


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PostPosted: Sun Feb 10, 2013 11:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

RCobb18 wrote:
Love it outside of Jenkins, and maybe a defensive linemen earlier but other than that looks great.

Adding Seymour kills the DE need. We actually have good depth, just lack impact guy.
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NCPackFan


Joined: 12 Jan 2013
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 4:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

First of all, that picture of Allen looks absolutely hilarious.

Anyway, Swearinger would by far be the better pick over Jefferson. I HATE the Ball pick. He's too much of a finesse back for our offense and like you said, he's not a burner which I find to be problematic. Couple that with the issues he had last year and all of those negatives add up to prove that he's a system back; plain and simple. I know that's harsh which is why I compare him to Brian Calhoun, but I'm with CWood on this; I just don't think he's really that special at all.

I really like your thinking with the Escobar pick but the Allen pick seems a bit far fetched. I wouldn't mind drafting him, but we actually have a fairly deep WR class this year. Guys like King, Bumphis, and even a dark horse like Connor Vernon would all be acceptable picks. We're also really only replacing one WR, not two. Heck, we might even have our 5 WR's adding Boykin and Ross to the mix.

The Slay pick IS a bit late but I like your logic there. We could use a good developmental CB with House coming back from injury. The same could be said about the Hughes pick as well. The Bray pick is a bit of a stunner, I think he'd be excellent value there and would replace Graham Harrell immediately IMHO, but we still have BJ Coleman who looks to be the heir apparent to Harrell whenever that occurs.

As for the Jenkins pick, I think this would be a good spot to take him if he's there. We're looking for strictly pass-rushers at OLB and Jenkins would be an immediate upgrade in that respect alone over both Zombo and Mozes. Jenkins would solidify that 3rd OLB position, especially if Walden were to leave.
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rbens06


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 6:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

No quarrels with the Allen pick, seeing that Seymour can provide us with the defensive line impact the first round guy would. Allen offers great value and would definitely maintain our depth at the position and safeguard for the future if Jones is not brought back after next season.

I have been back and forth on Ball all year and there is no doubt that the combine will be huge for him, assuming he decides to fully participate. I can live with the fact that he is not a real burner because I think our system needs an effective runner that will churn out yards and not just that speed element.
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nfldraftguru1


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 7:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Anyone saying Ball is finesse is just wrong. He's good at avoiding contact, but I've seen him run over plenty of defenders. No one physical trait stands out, but that's the case for Forte too who I think is similar to Ball.
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packattack86


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 10:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I really am not a fan of going WR in the first, however, Allen is one of my favorite WR's in this draft and if he's there i'd have no problem w/ it. Not sold on Jefferson yet, but I did like what little I saw of him. Not a fan of Escobar that high, I'd rather go D-line there even w/ Seymour added.
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nfldraftguru1


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 10:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

packattack86 wrote:
I really am not a fan of going WR in the first, however, Allen is one of my favorite WR's in this draft and if he's there i'd have no problem w/ it. Not sold on Jefferson yet, but I did like what little I saw of him. Not a fan of Escobar that high, I'd rather go D-line there even w/ Seymour added.

Escobar is gonna shoot up with his physical tools. Lots of skills there and was the constant focus of opposing defenses yet still performed. That's a big combo. He's also position flexible at TE/H-back.
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