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The Alex Smith trade rumors thread....
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SoCalNiner


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 02, 2013 1:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

big9erfan wrote:
neezy007 wrote:
The niners trade Alex Smith, Larry Grant, and their 2nd round+ a future pick for the Cheifs first rounder. Do it.


Who would you take with that pick?


I'd rather trade for the Chiefs 2014 1st rounder, then trade up for......



It's fun to think about, but we're not getting anything higher than a low 3rd for Alex. Not what I think his value is, but what I think we'll actually get for him.
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neezy007


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 02, 2013 1:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think we might be able to get higher than a 3rd. Seriously, the Kevin Kolb trade. Alex is better than him and this draft sucks.
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SoCalNiner


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 02, 2013 1:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

neezy007 wrote:
I think we might be able to get higher than a 3rd. Seriously, the Kevin Kolb trade. Alex is better than him and this draft sucks.


The difference with Kolb is that there was an unknown about him, and there was a chance that he could be that elite QB. With Alex, it's more like what you see is what you get. I'm not saying that he can't be elite, but judging from his somewhat quiet free agency experience, not many teams think he can be that guy. But you never know, all you need is one team to buy in.
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gridirongorilla


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 02, 2013 1:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I wish Alex the best, but I don't care where he goes as long as it's out of the division, preferably out of the conference.
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48 1/2ers


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 02, 2013 3:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I still believe Minnesota is the team for him, he and ponder are very similar and while they aren't giving up on ponder yet I dont think they want to spoil these next couple years at contending for the playoffs. Ponder could sit behind Alex for a two years then replace him but right now the Vikings know that Ponder isn't getting them to the superbowl no matter how hard AP runs.
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Forge


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 02, 2013 7:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I definitely think KC is the most likely landing spot for Alex, and in the end, I do think we'll somehow manage to get something back for him in trade. with so many picks this year, I think it's entirely possible that we will take a 2014 pick for him, which will make him even more enticing to trade for if you're kansas city, especially if they think they are solid qb play away from an 8-8 record or so. At that point, i could see us giving up smith and a mid-rounder for Kc's 2014 second rounder (which they would assume would be somewhere in the mid 40's and not hold nearly as much value as a pick in the upper tier of the round).
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kingnothing


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 02, 2013 9:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

If the team ends up trading Alex Smith, it will be for a late round pick. I could see teams offering a 6th that turns into a conditional 5th round pick. I hope that 49ers are able to trade him instead of releasing him and taking a salary cap hit. Anyone know what the cap hit would be if the team cuts him?
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rudyZ


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 02, 2013 9:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

kingnothing wrote:
If the team ends up trading Alex Smith, it will be for a late round pick. I could see teams offering a 6th that turns into a conditional 5th round pick. I hope that 49ers are able to trade him instead of releasing him and taking a salary cap hit. Anyone know what the cap hit would be if the team cuts him?



1.5 mil, I think.
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TidesHaveTurned


Joined: 26 Jan 2013
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 02, 2013 10:58 am    Post subject: Re: Alex to KC?..... Reply with quote

DirtyJersey9er wrote:
rudyZ wrote:
DirtyJersey9er wrote:
Anyone see the blurb on the NFLN bottom bar that Andy Reid is interested in Alex Smith? Would be a great trade partner because the pick we would get would be the top of that round.



Unless he's traded for a 2014 pick. Or worse yet, he could be released.


Well if the asking price is a 2nd rounder this year that would equate to a 1st next year going by how they consider future picks.(using 2nd and 1st as an example of course)


No one's giving up a 2nd rounder for Alex Smith. That's a franchise crippler right there. Lucky to get a 4th, most likely a 5th or 6th.
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rudyZ


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 02, 2013 11:16 am    Post subject: Re: Alex to KC?..... Reply with quote

TidesHaveTurned wrote:
DirtyJersey9er wrote:
rudyZ wrote:
DirtyJersey9er wrote:
Anyone see the blurb on the NFLN bottom bar that Andy Reid is interested in Alex Smith? Would be a great trade partner because the pick we would get would be the top of that round.



Unless he's traded for a 2014 pick. Or worse yet, he could be released.


Well if the asking price is a 2nd rounder this year that would equate to a 1st next year going by how they consider future picks.(using 2nd and 1st as an example of course)


No one's giving up a 2nd rounder for Alex Smith. That's a franchise crippler right there. Lucky to get a 4th, most likely a 5th or 6th.



I don't think we can afford having an "asking price". Whatever we get for Alex is a bonus. Not having deadweight on our cap from releasing him is a bonus too. A trade, even for just a 2017 conditional 7th round pick, is what makes the most sense for the organization.
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y2lamanaki


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 02, 2013 1:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

neezy007 wrote:
I think we might be able to get higher than a 3rd. Seriously, the Kevin Kolb trade. Alex is better than him and this draft sucks.


Teams also know that Alex is bound to be released by 3 days after the league year, as that's when we have to pay him a roster bonus, so teams might be willing to risk not trading for him, especially a team like the Browns where they know mutual interest lies, in order to get him at whatever price they choose, as well as not losing any draft pick.

If the 49ers were thought to keep him rather than release him, then that's when he might be able to fetch a second.
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DirtyJersey9er


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 02, 2013 1:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

y2lamanaki wrote:
neezy007 wrote:
I think we might be able to get higher than a 3rd. Seriously, the Kevin Kolb trade. Alex is better than him and this draft sucks.


Teams also know that Alex is bound to be released by 3 days after the league year, as that's when we have to pay him a roster bonus, so teams might be willing to risk not trading for him, especially a team like the Browns where they know mutual interest lies, in order to get him at whatever price they choose, as well as not losing any draft pick.

If the 49ers were thought to keep him rather than release him, then that's when he might be able to fetch a second.


I know Smith is no Bledsoe but everyone knew New England was going to let Bledsoe go after Brady's first year starting and they still got the 1st rounder from the next year from Buffalo. Granted talent levels are different but that makes a 2nd this year not outside the realm of possibility. I'd take the 2nd rounder if offered by a KC or Cleveland and turn that into a 2014 first rounder.
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neezy007


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 02, 2013 3:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

y2lamanaki wrote:
neezy007 wrote:
I think we might be able to get higher than a 3rd. Seriously, the Kevin Kolb trade. Alex is better than him and this draft sucks.


Teams also know that Alex is bound to be released by 3 days after the league year, as that's when we have to pay him a roster bonus, so teams might be willing to risk not trading for him, especially a team like the Browns where they know mutual interest lies, in order to get him at whatever price they choose, as well as not losing any draft pick.

If the 49ers were thought to keep him rather than release him, then that's when he might be able to fetch a second.


Yeah I know but the thing I'm kind of hoping happens is a team trading for him because they don't want to have to pay him a big chunk of cash. It's wishful thinking but hey I'm a delusional fan.
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rudyZ


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 02, 2013 3:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

neezy007 wrote:
y2lamanaki wrote:
neezy007 wrote:
I think we might be able to get higher than a 3rd. Seriously, the Kevin Kolb trade. Alex is better than him and this draft sucks.


Teams also know that Alex is bound to be released by 3 days after the league year, as that's when we have to pay him a roster bonus, so teams might be willing to risk not trading for him, especially a team like the Browns where they know mutual interest lies, in order to get him at whatever price they choose, as well as not losing any draft pick.

If the 49ers were thought to keep him rather than release him, then that's when he might be able to fetch a second.


Yeah I know but the thing I'm kind of hoping happens is a team trading for him because they don't want to have to pay him a big chunk of cash. It's wishful thinking but hey I'm a delusional fan.



I think a team will want to trade for him because of him having two years on his contract. If he is cut, I'm sure he and his agent will push for 3+ years. If a team is looking to draft a young QB and sit him for a couple of years, Alex's current contract is perfect for them. Also, by not re-signing him at the end of the two years (as opposed to signing him to a 3 -4 year deal and cutting him after the second year), they'd get a compensatory pick out of him. So, it's like we're trading Alex Smith and a 4th or 5th round comp pick, for what? A 3rd rounder would be a great deal for any team, at this point, and benificial to all parties.
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big9erfan


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 02, 2013 4:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rudyZ wrote:
xXFlyteXx wrote:
I know its not the popular vote but i hope we cut him and let him decide where to go the Niners owe him that.



First, I'd ask Alex which teams he wants to play for, then contact those teams and see if they're interested in trading for him. Only then would I release Alex. I honestly don't expect a high pick for him. The mere possibility that he could be released lowers his value, and if we're to show respect to him by offering him to the team he wants, that limits the market, therefore lowers his value again. So, IF we trade him, I expect something like a 4th-5th rounder, or maybe a 2nd-3rd next year, or a pick swap. Swapping 2nd rounder this year would be tremendous value, in my opinion. Imagine having the 32nd and 33rd pick in the draft. Wink


It seems to me that everyone here assumes we'll cut him. I've heard a few talkiing heads on tv this week say that we would keep him if we can't trade him. Sure it's a lot of money, but we pay next to nothing for Kap. So what we would pay our starter and our backup would still be less than most teams pay their starter and backup. Besides, we're playing at SB level now. Those times don't come often for a team. On the off chance Kap goes down with an injury would we want our SB chances to go down the tube with his injury. If you're a SB contender QB is one position where you can hardly afford to risk that opportunity to an injury to the only QB you've got on your roster.

Just look at what guys like Kolb, and Carson, and Cassell, and other guys like that have gone for. If we can get good trade value for him then that might make it worth getting rid of a backup who has already taken us once before to the brink of the SB. But for a low round pick, I'd just pay his salary and keep him around as insurance.
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