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lavar703


Joined: 12 Jan 2009
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 01, 2013 6:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mike23md wrote:
lavar703 wrote:
Marcus21 wrote:
When Devin Hester was at the U, he was a corner....Im pretty sure people thought he was the second comming of Deion Sanders. He switched to wide out by the Bears because they were horrible at that position. That is a very different set of circumstances then Denard Robinson....


Devin Hester was a decent corner/slash wide receiver in college who was an amazing kick returner. The Bears picked him for that reason.


And they tried to convert him to WR, which is what he plays now. He at least had some WR experience in college, unlike Robinson who is going to be learning the route tree and a whole myriad of components into becoming a WR.

Hester at least had some coaching from Isaac Bruce to become a better WR. Robinson is going off of pure instinct. Again, just dont see him being a productive addition to what he have all ready.


He's a talent that you would be risking very little on in the 5th round...
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 01, 2013 6:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

lavar703 wrote:
mike23md wrote:
lavar703 wrote:
Marcus21 wrote:
When Devin Hester was at the U, he was a corner....Im pretty sure people thought he was the second comming of Deion Sanders. He switched to wide out by the Bears because they were horrible at that position. That is a very different set of circumstances then Denard Robinson....


Devin Hester was a decent corner/slash wide receiver in college who was an amazing kick returner. The Bears picked him for that reason.


And they tried to convert him to WR, which is what he plays now. He at least had some WR experience in college, unlike Robinson who is going to be learning the route tree and a whole myriad of components into becoming a WR.

Hester at least had some coaching from Isaac Bruce to become a better WR. Robinson is going off of pure instinct. Again, just dont see him being a productive addition to what he have all ready.


He's a talent that you would be risking very little on in the 5th round...
I'd still rather have Briscoe. Proven NFL talent that has nfl size as a wr and caught 6 TDs as a second year player in 2011. He will only be 24 next season.

Next year Briscoe gets a full offseason to be on this team, learn the offense and all. He won't be playing catch up as he was in the 2012 offseason.

We don't need to draft a return specialist we have several guys who can do returns. I'd rather us take a real wr who also has speed or not address the wr position in the draft.

We need to focus on the secondary, rt and other positions before we go drafting a guy who will just be replacing what banks did for us and almost everyone hated keeping Banks last year.

Drafting Robinson really doesn't make much sense for us considering the log jam we have at wr and the options we already have to be kick off and punt returners.
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Woz


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 01, 2013 7:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

lavar703 wrote:
mike23md wrote:
Woz wrote:
turtle28 wrote:
i totally get what you are saying but we are talking about a 7th round pick. Almost all 7 round picks don't play a down in the NFL. So why not take a chance on a punter who may have pro bowl talent in the 7th round?

Sure, we could take a position player but most likely that player won't make the team.


I'm a bit surprised to see this coming from a fan of a team that has seen Rob Jackson, Maurice Hurt, and Richard Crawford become valuable role guys.

We've actually done quite well for ourselves finding gems in the seventh relative to the NFL as a whole.


Touche Woz. Thank you for backing up my point.

Kickers and Punters should not be drafted, they should go as UDFA because they are not an every down player, and I would rather take my chances on a player who is, then one who is not, when their only job is to kick a ball through goal posts or kick the ball as far and high downt he field as you can. We have found the kicker, that was not drafted, we just need to find that punter.

THe last time we drafted a punter, was Durant Brooks in the 6th round. And how did that work out? It didnt. He was replaced midway through the season.

Hell, if there is one sitting in FA that is say, 30 years old, pick him up. But by no means do you look the fool by drafting a punter. I think that is just as bad as drafting a KR/PR when they have NO other position to play.


So Chicago looks foolish for selecting Devin Hester?


Yes, somewhat.

Hester had 11 TD returns in his first two years ('06 and '07). He barely played on offense. However, in order to keep him around (and give him a bigger contract like he wanted), they needed him to play more on the offense. Since 2008, he's only had 6 TDs returned. While he is still a threat on special teams, he is no longer the threat; that ended five years ago.

So, what has he done on offense?

His best overall season was 2009, when he had 57 catches for 757 yards (13.3 YPC) and three touchdowns (he had 4 TDs in 2009, and better YPC in 2007 (15.0) and 2011 (14.2)).

For that performance, he was given a 4 year/$40M/$15M guaranteed ($5M signing bonus; two $5M roster bonuses in 2011 and 2012).

Now, I'll admit that Hester's rookie season helped the Bears reach the Super Bowl that year. However, you have to ask yourself: would the Bears have been better off taking Maurice Jones-Drew (went three picks later) over the long haul? Yes, they had taken Cedric Benson the year before and still had Thomas Jones. However, it would be Jones last season with the Bears and Benson was a head case (he had only played in nine games, starting one, his rookie season). If you don't think that was credible, what about Eric Winston who went 10 picks later? Don't you think the Bears could use a capable offensive lineman?

So, outside of one spectacular rookie season, was Devin Hester worth a 2nd round pick?
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Woz


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 01, 2013 7:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

turtle28 wrote:
Woz wrote:
turtle28 wrote:
i totally get what you are saying but we are talking about a 7th round pick. Almost all 7 round picks don't play a down in the NFL. So why not take a chance on a punter who may have pro bowl talent in the 7th round?

Sure, we could take a position player but most likely that player won't make the team.


I'm a bit surprised to see this coming from a fan of a team that has seen Rob Jackson, Maurice Hurt, and Richard Crawford become valuable role guys.

We've actually done quite well for ourselves finding gems in the seventh relative to the NFL as a whole.
Chris Neild also. Lets see here though, out of the last 5 drafts we've had what 8 or 9 7th round picks. We've had 4 guys turn into role players a good percentage no doubt, 50%, but you're telling me you wouldn't take a chance on a rookie punter?

You'd rather pay a veteran punter 2 or 3 times as much money as a rookie punter would make and that veteran is older and doesn't have possibly a 15 to 20 year career in front of him?

Come on guys work with me here. Wink

We are talking about one late round draft pick on a punter. It's worth it. d'oh!


http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/washington-redskins/sav-rocca/

2 years/$3.5M/$0.6M guaranteed ... that's not really breaking the bank, now is it?
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Woz


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 01, 2013 7:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

lavar703 wrote:
He's a talent that you would be risking very little on in the 5th round...


I don't think anyone is questioning whether he's athletic or not.

However, talent is not just raw skill. It is applied skill and training. It's why some guys are great 4-3 defensive ends, but are horrid when moved to a 3-4 OLB (see: Carter, Andre). It's a different set of instincts and reactions.

So, it's not just forgoing taking another player at a different position. It's also training Robinson from the ground up. He's going to have to learn whole new skills and reactions from what he's used to. Instead of being able to make the defense react to him when he snaps the ball, he's got to be patient enough to trust his return team so he can field the ball. After that, he's got fractions of a second to decide which way to go in the face of guys going full tilt while he's standing still.

So, the question becomes: how much investment are you willing to put in? There's the money (trivial amount, comparatively), there's the draft pick (not trash, but not top value either) ... and then there's the training time. Every second a coach is teaching Robinson completely new to him, he's not coaching another player.

Coaching time matters. Especially when you're as young as we are (weird to say, I know). Experience of our wide receivers: Moss (12), Garcon (5), Morgan (5), Banks (3), Briscoe (2), Hankerson (2), Robinson (1), Hanks (0). Putting Denard with those guys means a guy like Briscoe or Aldrick will miss a series of reps.
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 01, 2013 9:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Woz wrote:
turtle28 wrote:
Woz wrote:
turtle28 wrote:
i totally get what you are saying but we are talking about a 7th round pick. Almost all 7 round picks don't play a down in the NFL. So why not take a chance on a punter who may have pro bowl talent in the 7th round?

Sure, we could take a position player but most likely that player won't make the team.


I'm a bit surprised to see this coming from a fan of a team that has seen Rob Jackson, Maurice Hurt, and Richard Crawford become valuable role guys.

We've actually done quite well for ourselves finding gems in the seventh relative to the NFL as a whole.
Chris Neild also. Lets see here though, out of the last 5 drafts we've had what 8 or 9 7th round picks. We've had 4 guys turn into role players a good percentage no doubt, 50%, but you're telling me you wouldn't take a chance on a rookie punter?

You'd rather pay a veteran punter 2 or 3 times as much money as a rookie punter would make and that veteran is older and doesn't have possibly a 15 to 20 year career in front of him?

Come on guys work with me here. Wink

We are talking about one late round draft pick on a punter. It's worth it. d'oh!


http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/washington-redskins/sav-rocca/

2 years/$3.5M/$0.6M guaranteed ... that's not really breaking the bank, now is it?
no but drafting a punter late thats the best in college is cheaper than that and it's someone who could be on our team for nearly two decades. If we can save $1 million in cap room for an upgrade in the secondary or RT, that's worth it.
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Woz


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PostPosted: Sun Feb 03, 2013 2:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

turtle28 wrote:
no but drafting a punter late thats the best in college


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Durant_Brooks
Quote:
As a senior, Brooks received the Ray Guy Award, ranking second in the ACC (and fourth in the nation) in punting average while only allowing his opponents to return 19 of his 65 punts. That year, he was also named to the All-American second team by AP (first team by Sports Illustrated and Rivals) and the All-ACC first team


Brooks was the the best punter in college that year.

turtle28 wrote:
is cheaper than that and it's someone who could be on our team for nearly two decades.


I challenge you: find a punter who has been on his team for ONE decade beyond Shane Lechler. Heck, open it up to the entirety of the free agency era (1994-current). I'll even allow a guy who straddles the cutover provided he's on the team for more than 4 years after 1994.

turtle28 wrote:
If we can save $1 million in cap room for an upgrade in the secondary or RT, that's worth it.


Are we honestly worrying about contracts on the margins?
Brad Nortman's contract from last year (2012 6.37 (207)):
Quote:
5/10/2012: Signed a four-year, $2.09 million contract. The deal included a $78,680 signing bonus. 2013: $480,000, 2014: $570,000, 2015: $660,000, 2016: Free Agent


Do you really think we're going to pay that much more for a street free agent punter?

Here are all of the punters drafted since 2008 (last five drafts) and last year's average and net average (with rankings)
Code:
2012 3.07 ( 70) - Bryan Anger:     47.8 ( 7th) / 40.8 (7th-T)
2012 6.37 (207) - Brad Nortman:    43.0 (31st) / 36.5 (33rd-T)
[no punters drafted in 2011]
2010 5.19 (150) - Zoltan Mesko:    43.1 (30th) / 37.9 (27th)
2010 6.03 (172) - Brent Bowden:    OOL (never played a down)
2010 7.14 (221) - Matt Dodge:      OOL (lasted a season)
2009 5.06 (142) - Kevin Huber:     46.6 (15th) / 42.0 (4th)
2009 5.28 (164) - Thomas Morstead: 50.1 ( 2nd) / 43.2 (1st-T)
2009 7.13 (222) - Pat McAfee:      48.2 ( 5th) / 40.3 (15th)
2008 6.02 (168) - Durant Brooks:   OOL (lasted half of a season)


So, we have three guys who lasted a year or less, which is a total bust even for a 6th or 7th rounder. We have two guys who are near the worst in the league in terms of punting, but are still on their respective teams; I'd argue that Nortman has a chance to perhaps turn it around, but Mesko is basically a bust (43.2 in 2010 and 46.5 in 2011). Two of our best punters, Morstead and McAfee, have the wonderful advantage of eight games a year in a dome (but Morstead also managed to do it consistently and got paid accordingly; we'll see what the Colts do with McAfee (I'd be stunned if they let him walk)). Realistically, only Huber and Anger look like they would be solid picks ... except Anger went way too high and allowed the Seahawks to draft a franchise QB in front of the desperate Jaguars.

That's why you don't draft a punter. Yes, there are Andy Lee's and Shane Lechler's, even Mike Scifres'. However, there a lot more bombs than hits.
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Marcus21


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2013 12:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wow I cant believe how much energy you guys are putting into drafting a punter.........lol

This is a skins only Mock I found on Bleache Report. I realize most of you guys dont respect the information on BR, but they brought up some different names and wanted to get an idea of what you guys thought.

http://bleacherreport.com/washington-redskins

2) Jordan Poyer CB Oregon State
3) Zavier Gooden ILB Missouri
4) Jonathon Cyprien S Florida International
5) Travis Kelce TE Cincinnati
5) B.W. Webb CB W&M
6) Omoregie Uzzi G Georgia Tech
7) Ray Ray Armstrong S Miami
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Marcus21


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 05, 2013 6:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I realize I have changed this 4 times now, but the more I learn the more I change my mind...so here goes 4.0

2) Tonyy Jefferson FS OKL
3) Kevin Reddick ILB UNC
4) Travis Kelce TE Cinncinnati
5) Tyrann Mathieu KR/CB/S LSU
5) B.W. Webb CB W&M
6) Marcus Davis WR VT
7) Ray Ray Armstrong S Miami

I think this is pretty realistic
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 05, 2013 9:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Marcus21 wrote:
I realize I have changed this 4 times now, but the more I learn the more I change my mind...so here goes 4.0

2) Tonyy Jefferson FS OKL
3) Kevin Reddick ILB UNC
4) Travis Kelce TE Cinncinnati
5) Tyrann Mathieu KR/CB/S LSU
5) B.W. Webb CB W&M
6) Marcus Davis WR VT
7) Ray Ray Armstrong S Miami

I think this is pretty realistic
i could live with it. Gives us a possible starting FS, a ILB who can eventually take over for Fletch. A great TE prospect who is good in all areas of the game from what I've seen of him. Two cbs who will give us more depth at that position, another late round wr to develop and a SS to develop as well.

I like both the mocks you did.
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Woz


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 05, 2013 11:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Marcus21 wrote:
I realize I have changed this 4 times now, but the more I learn the more I change my mind...so here goes 4.0

2) Tonyy Jefferson FS OKL
3) Kevin Reddick ILB UNC
4) Travis Kelce TE Cinncinnati
5) Tyrann Mathieu KR/CB/S LSU
5) B.W. Webb CB W&M
6) Marcus Davis WR VT
7) Ray Ray Armstrong S Miami

I think this is pretty realistic


Would we really want to take on two head cases in the same draft? Does the 2011 Lions draft not give us pause?
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Marcus21


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 06, 2013 12:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Woz wrote:
Marcus21 wrote:
I realize I have changed this 4 times now, but the more I learn the more I change my mind...so here goes 4.0

2) Tonyy Jefferson FS OKL
3) Kevin Reddick ILB UNC
4) Travis Kelce TE Cinncinnati
5) Tyrann Mathieu KR/CB/S LSU
5) B.W. Webb CB W&M
6) Marcus Davis WR VT
7) Ray Ray Armstrong S Miami

I think this is pretty realistic


Would we really want to take on two head cases in the same draft? Does the 2011 Lions draft not give us pause?


I agree Mathieu is a risk, and has serious Character issues.... Armostrong has never to my knowledge been in trouble with the law or linked to drugs in any way. He was droped by Miami because he violated NCAA rules by accepting gifts. Tons of players have done the same thing and gone on to have great trouble free NFL careers. Newton, Bush etc. Read up on this guy. He is a stud and would be a huge upgrade for what we have, and would have great value in the 7th round. Lets face it, we dont have a FS on the roster, and need a starter and a back up.
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 06, 2013 12:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Marcus21 wrote:
Woz wrote:
Marcus21 wrote:
I realize I have changed this 4 times now, but the more I learn the more I change my mind...so here goes 4.0

2) Tonyy Jefferson FS OKL
3) Kevin Reddick ILB UNC
4) Travis Kelce TE Cinncinnati
5) Tyrann Mathieu KR/CB/S LSU
5) B.W. Webb CB W&M
6) Marcus Davis WR VT
7) Ray Ray Armstrong S Miami

I think this is pretty realistic


Would we really want to take on two head cases in the same draft? Does the 2011 Lions draft not give us pause?


I agree Mathieu is a risk, and has serious Character issues.... Armostrong has never to my knowledge been in trouble with the law or linked to drugs in any way. He was droped by Miami because he violated NCAA rules by accepting gifts. Tons of players have done the same thing and gone on to have great trouble free NFL careers. Newton, Bush etc. Read up on this guy. He is a stud and would be a huge upgrade for what we have, and would have great value in the 7th round. Lets face it, we dont have a FS on the roster, and need a starter and a back up.
agreed. I read up on Armstrong and what he did wasn't horrible. He also went back and made sure he graduated from Miami in one article I read. I think he's be a solid late round pick. He's not an off the field problem.

Mathieu in the 5th could be a steal, I'm not for taking him before the 5th but in the 5th the risk is definitely worth it because its not a big risk with a late pick.
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lavar703


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2013 11:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Woz wrote:
Marcus21 wrote:
I realize I have changed this 4 times now, but the more I learn the more I change my mind...so here goes 4.0

2) Tonyy Jefferson FS OKL
3) Kevin Reddick ILB UNC
4) Travis Kelce TE Cinncinnati
5) Tyrann Mathieu KR/CB/S LSU
5) B.W. Webb CB W&M
6) Marcus Davis WR VT
7) Ray Ray Armstrong S Miami

I think this is pretty realistic


Would we really want to take on two head cases in the same draft? Does the 2011 Lions draft not give us pause?


Not to mention Ray Ray just isn't very good.
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lavar703


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2013 12:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Marcus21 wrote:
I realize I have changed this 4 times now, but the more I learn the more I change my mind...so here goes 4.0

2) Tonyy Jefferson FS OKL
3) Kevin Reddick ILB UNC
4) Travis Kelce TE Cinncinnati
5) Tyrann Mathieu KR/CB/S LSU
5) B.W. Webb CB W&M
6) Marcus Davis WR VT
7) Ray Ray Armstrong S Miami

I think this is pretty realistic


BW Webb is by far my favorite pick in this draft.
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