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Should he stay or should he go: Aqib Talib
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mcmurtry86


Joined: 02 Mar 2010
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 21, 2013 11:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Canadian_Patriot wrote:
mcmurtry86 wrote:
Canadian_Patriot wrote:


Well as long as he's not outside, because he's proven incapable of effectively covering #1 and #2 NFL wide outs. Teams with strong slot receivers would beat him like a drum as well. I realize we're talking nickel corners here, and they're obviously not all going to be terrific cover guys, but I'm fed up with seeing Arrington casing guys around outside the numbers. If Talib is healthy and Dennard is out their, sure, we can get by with Arrington inside. But both of those guys missed significant time this season so I don't feel very good about Arrington having to be bumped up the line up in the event someone goes down.


You're still really undervaluing him. He's proven he IS capable of covering #1 and #2 WR's (or do you not feel Stevie Johnson qualifies as such?). As for "strong slot receivers beating him like a drum" - that's true of most nickel CB's. Luckily there are about 5 "strong" slot receivers out there. Arrington - after Talib was brought in and he moved back to the slot - put up some of the best numbers in the NFL for a CB. He's a good slot CB. Period. Not great, and not a guy who you want forced into a long-term outside role. But I don't see many better alternatives out there and the idea that he is easily upgradable as a slot CB is totally crazy IMO.

Who are some guys who would be realistic #3 CB's that you'd prefer?


I'm in agreement that he's an okay NB, my problem is that there needs to be another CB on this roster closer to Talib's calibre ahead of Arrington, because that 3rd CB is going to inevitably see time outside when injury's occur and Arrington has for the most part, been brutal outside.

There's a handful of FA's out there this year that can come in and do everything Arrington provides and not be such a liability in coverage.

As for guys I'd like to see here?

DJ Moore
Jerraud Powers
Mike Jenkins

I'd rather see any of those guys here over Arrington. Not saying they are giant upgrades, but I view them all as safer in coverage than Arrington.


DJ Moore is so good that he was benched and inactivated down the stretch. Really don't understand what you see in him that Arrington doesn't have. If you lose your job to Kelvin Hayden you're not an upgrade.

Jerraud Powers has played 12, 10, 12 and 8 games in his 4 years. He might be a slight upgrade (though at 5'9 people would immediately bash him if/when he had to play outside) but he can't stay on the field

Mike Jenkins might be an upgrade but he's really done little to show he's a good slot player. He was a mediocre outside player the last 2 years and I don't know why we'd assume he could play inside at a high level other than he's a name player.

Sounds a lot like a "grass is greener" type situation. There simply aren't many DB's who can effectively play both inside and outside. They're pretty different skill sets - becoming even more so with the way offenses are evolving.
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Canadian_Patriot


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 21, 2013 11:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

For me it just boils down to, is it working now? Clearly the answer is no.

So I'd favour a shake up back there rather then sticking with the status quo. Because if we're not upgrading Arrington, that means we're obviously keeping our top 3 CB's from this season and rolling with them for 2013.

Personally don't want to see that happen.
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Pats#1


Joined: 19 Aug 2011
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2013 12:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I_GET_SAX wrote:
Tzimisce wrote:
nextsuperstar wrote:

He is not on the level of Nnamdi Asomugha.
That's a good thing, though. Nnamdi has completely crapped the bed in Philly.


Definitley has...even his last season in OAK was subpar for his history of being "shut down". I would give Tlib his pay day before Wes but that's prolly just me. I love Wes for everything but with the change of times/schemes and our ability or hopeful ability to replace an elite WR over a CB that changed the image of our D like Talib is worse. To me its easier to replace Wes via draft with the depth at pass catchers we have over finding a guy like Talib with all our troubles i nthe secondary in past years.


I completely agree....I think at this point in time Talib has proven to be that key piece our secondary has been missing. I also think it will be much harder to find someone to replace him than a Wes Welker type. There are a lot of good receivers out there, and this draft class is very deep receiver wise. We also have two of the best TEs in the game as well as a good #2 in Lloyd.

If it came down to Wes or Talib, I'd easily take Talib tbh.
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Pats#1


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2013 12:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

mcmurtry86 wrote:
24isthelaw wrote:
NextBigThing wrote:
mcmurtry86 wrote:
So pretty much the same exact defense?

And are you seriously advocating for both Arrington and Chung to be re-signed? Pretty sure this forum will explode if that happens.

Gregory, Love and Deaderick are low-end fill-ins and Dowling is a nobody. I don't qualify that as good, reliable depth. I'd like to see a few mid-range veteran pieces added to complement (or replace) some of the depth players they already have.


Dd our second half defense play pretty damn well when healthy, or did not? I wont be upset if our defense going into next season is the same as the post Talib trade defense was. I wouldn't complain if we add another defensive lineman or ss, but i wouldnt cry if we dont.

Judge players as to how they play within the unit. Arrington is an excellent nickel corner. We almost never heard his name during the games we played at full health. If we can hang onto Talib, I would love to bring Arrington back as the #3 nickel corner.

It's really going unnoticed, but no Gronk, no Talib, and no Jones are what killed us yesterday. I am surprised patriots injuries aren't getting more attention.


And last season we didn't have Gronk, and in 2009 we lost Welker, and in 2006 we lost Rodney and Seau, etc... To win you have to build a team that can weather injuries.


Yep. Can't make excuses for injuries in the NFL (outside of the QB). You can't expect to have all 22 starters healthy in the playoffs and the team has to be able to withstand the loss of a few top players.


Now I'm not making excuses....but this was much more than a few injuries to some top players.

We lost our:

Best Pass Rusher

Best Cornerback (early in the game so no time to gameplan for it)

Best Receiving threat

These weren't just a few key players...these were literally the players that made our offense truly elite and our defense pretty good.

Losing one of those guys I could understand expecting to fight through it....but losing all three of them was a practically a death penalty.
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mcmurtry86


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2013 12:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pats#1 wrote:
mcmurtry86 wrote:
24isthelaw wrote:
NextBigThing wrote:
mcmurtry86 wrote:
So pretty much the same exact defense?

And are you seriously advocating for both Arrington and Chung to be re-signed? Pretty sure this forum will explode if that happens.

Gregory, Love and Deaderick are low-end fill-ins and Dowling is a nobody. I don't qualify that as good, reliable depth. I'd like to see a few mid-range veteran pieces added to complement (or replace) some of the depth players they already have.


Dd our second half defense play pretty damn well when healthy, or did not? I wont be upset if our defense going into next season is the same as the post Talib trade defense was. I wouldn't complain if we add another defensive lineman or ss, but i wouldnt cry if we dont.

Judge players as to how they play within the unit. Arrington is an excellent nickel corner. We almost never heard his name during the games we played at full health. If we can hang onto Talib, I would love to bring Arrington back as the #3 nickel corner.

It's really going unnoticed, but no Gronk, no Talib, and no Jones are what killed us yesterday. I am surprised patriots injuries aren't getting more attention.


And last season we didn't have Gronk, and in 2009 we lost Welker, and in 2006 we lost Rodney and Seau, etc... To win you have to build a team that can weather injuries.


Yep. Can't make excuses for injuries in the NFL (outside of the QB). You can't expect to have all 22 starters healthy in the playoffs and the team has to be able to withstand the loss of a few top players.


Now I'm not making excuses....but this was much more than a few injuries to some top players.

We lost our:

Best Pass Rusher

Best Cornerback (early in the game so no time to gameplan for it)

Best Receiving threat

These weren't just a few key players...these were literally the players that made our offense truly elite and our defense pretty good.

Losing one of those guys I could understand expecting to fight through it....but losing all three of them was a practically a death penalty.


No, it's an excuse. Even without Gronkowski, the Pats man-for-man have more offensive talent than just about any team in the league. There's no reason it should be a "death penalty" not having him. Especially when they showed they were capable of putting up 40+ points without him.

Chandler Jones was a nearly total non-factor since initially getting hurt.

Talib played in 22 quarters of football with the team.

Are they better off with those guys? Absolutely. But it's ridiculous to think they couldn't win without them - they did just that many times this year.

Go back and think about the 2003 and 2004 Super Bowl Patriots teams and the guys those teams lost leading up to (or during) the Super Bowl.

If one or two guys are so vital to a team's success (excluding the QB) that you can't win without them- despite being at home with a halftime lead - then you have done a bad job in either building the roster or preparing the backups.
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Pats#1


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2013 12:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

mcmurtry86 wrote:
Pats#1 wrote:
mcmurtry86 wrote:
24isthelaw wrote:
NextBigThing wrote:
mcmurtry86 wrote:
So pretty much the same exact defense?

And are you seriously advocating for both Arrington and Chung to be re-signed? Pretty sure this forum will explode if that happens.

Gregory, Love and Deaderick are low-end fill-ins and Dowling is a nobody. I don't qualify that as good, reliable depth. I'd like to see a few mid-range veteran pieces added to complement (or replace) some of the depth players they already have.


Dd our second half defense play pretty damn well when healthy, or did not? I wont be upset if our defense going into next season is the same as the post Talib trade defense was. I wouldn't complain if we add another defensive lineman or ss, but i wouldnt cry if we dont.

Judge players as to how they play within the unit. Arrington is an excellent nickel corner. We almost never heard his name during the games we played at full health. If we can hang onto Talib, I would love to bring Arrington back as the #3 nickel corner.

It's really going unnoticed, but no Gronk, no Talib, and no Jones are what killed us yesterday. I am surprised patriots injuries aren't getting more attention.


And last season we didn't have Gronk, and in 2009 we lost Welker, and in 2006 we lost Rodney and Seau, etc... To win you have to build a team that can weather injuries.


Yep. Can't make excuses for injuries in the NFL (outside of the QB). You can't expect to have all 22 starters healthy in the playoffs and the team has to be able to withstand the loss of a few top players.


Now I'm not making excuses....but this was much more than a few injuries to some top players.

We lost our:

Best Pass Rusher

Best Cornerback (early in the game so no time to gameplan for it)

Best Receiving threat

These weren't just a few key players...these were literally the players that made our offense truly elite and our defense pretty good.

Losing one of those guys I could understand expecting to fight through it....but losing all three of them was a practically a death penalty.


No, it's an excuse. Even without Gronkowski, the Pats man-for-man have more offensive talent than just about any team in the league. There's no reason it should be a "death penalty" not having him. Especially when they showed they were capable of putting up 40+ points without him.

Chandler Jones was a nearly total non-factor since initially getting hurt.

Talib played in 22 quarters of football with the team.

Are they better off with those guys? Absolutely. But it's ridiculous to think they couldn't win without them - they did just that many times this year.

Go back and think about the 2003 and 2004 Super Bowl Patriots teams and the guys those teams lost leading up to (or during) the Super Bowl.

If one or two guys are so vital to a team's success (excluding the QB) that you can't win without them- despite being at home with a halftime lead - then you have done a bad job in either building the roster or preparing the backups.


I'm not saying losing one of these players was the reason we lost, I'm saying losing all 3 were.

We sorely missed Gronk in the redzone Sunday night.

While Chandler Jones def was only a shell of himself after his injury, losing him completely still hurt greatly. Our pass rush was a concern ever since he got injured initially, the main reason we weren't getting punished badly for it was because our coverage really improved once Talib got there and McCourty could settle in a Safety.

My main point was that us losing those 3 guys together was what did it for this team in the end IMO.

No Gronk, that's okay, we still have Hernandez and Welker.

No Jones, that's okay, cause our coverage is actually doing pretty good.

No Talib, bad news. He was our best CB and losing him made it impossible for the coverage to withhold the lack of pass rush. And losing Gronk in the redzonel, the other receivers were unable to make the plays to compensate for the lack of defense from losing Talib and having no pass rush.


I personally think these three guys were the worst possible players to lose for the Pats at the worst possible time. That's all I'm saying.

And I personally think that your last statement is true and completely applies to the pats. I don't think we have enough depth at DL/DE or at the secondary position.
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TomRalph


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2013 4:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

mcmurtry86 wrote:
TomRalph wrote:
mcmurtry86 wrote:
TomRalph wrote:
mcmurtry86 wrote:
TomRalph wrote:
cos God knows, the Pats can't draft a DB for s***.


Dennard and McCourty were both drafted and both played extremely well this year. Asante Samuel worked out pretty well too.


McCourty as a CB though, mcmurtry, was pretty dang terrible in Years 2 and 3.

Wheatley, Wilhite, Butler, Dowling, Wilson, Chung, Meriweather ...

If you wade through enough crap, you'll eventually come out with something worthwhile.


What are you talking about? McCourty was excellent as a CB this year.

Wheatley and Butler were total flops, I'll grant you that.

Dowling, we don't know about but it certainly doesn't look good.

Meriweather and Chung weren't huge successes but neither were they total flops.

Including Wilhite, a 4th round pick, is ridiculous.

And Wilson? Tavon Wilson? I'll be the first to say he didn't show a ton this year but writing him off now is absurd.

Here's my problem with what you said - you say the team can't draft DB's. Yet their 2 best DB's this year (over 18 games) were drafted. Yet, their hit/miss ratio on DB's isn't really much different than most teams'.

We have this same issue every year around draft time, people pan the Pats for drafting so many flops. Well, they do. But they also draft a lot of really good players. The thing is, they draft a much higher quantity of players than most teams, so of course they're going to have more flops. DB's, like WR's have really low success rates in the pros. How many teams draft DB's well?

If there is a valid criticism to be found here is that the Pats spend too much draft capital vs. free agency dollars in an exceedingly high variable market (DB's) and that they tend to take chances on guys with injury flags. I think those are far more arguable points than "they can't draft DB's well". Over the last 3 years they've drafted an excellent DB (McCourty) and a very promising CB (Dennard). Tough to criticize that.


You don't have to sell me on the Pats Quality/Quantity approach on draft picks. I'm firmly entrenched on that bandwagon. I've fought that battle many times in NFL Gen.

But the thing is we spend HIGH picks on these guys, and lots of them.

I like DMC, I like Dennard (we really pulled a rabbit out the hat there) but when you look at what we've spent on these guys - Dowling, Butler, Chung, Wilson, Meriweather - ALL taken in the Top 50 picks. I guess I just expect better than a 2/7 hit rate on these guys.


Right, but you're assuming Dowling and Wilson are total flops. I think it's also a bit disingenuous to qualify Chung as a miss (and I'm no fan of Chung).


You've changed your tune on both Dowling and Wilson then Confused

Whenever they've been mentioned before you've said they are positions that can be upgraded.

I, for one, am not saying that every 2nd Round pick needs to be Gronkowski, or every 4th Round pick has to be Geno Atkins or every 5th Round pick has to be Richard Sherman etc. but if a player can be 'upgraded' - no matter which round they are drafted in- then they haven't been as successful as you'd like.

You don't spend the 33rd or 48th Overall pick on a guy that can be upgraded within his first 2 years in the league (for injury reasons or ability reasons) and if you do then those picks have not worked out.

I'm still holding out hope for both these guys - I'm not a pessimist by any means - but I don't think anyone is expecting much in terms of serious PT or impact on the team and if that is the situation 2 years after you've drafted the guy, then that is not a good draft pick.

Ask anyone on FF what they expect out of the 33rd Overall pick, the 48th Overall pick, the 34th Overall pick and I can guarantee that the expectation would be that they are at least on the roster after 4 years - something that Dowling and Chung (and Wilson - based on what he's shown so far) may not achieve. That spells out bust or at least disappointment, which certainly aids my point that the Pats struggle to draft DB's.
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PatriotBeast


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2013 9:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I_GET_SAX wrote:
GoldenboyGB wrote:
We gotta keep him


YUP! Look at the before and after effect people. Not just on the season but last night. We continually say he "has" off field issues...he didnt in the what 8 games here. We can;t hold that over his head. As long as it doesn't kill us financially and he doesn't have the whole league as suitors there is no reason we don't bring him in on a 1 year "thank you" deal and then possibly have the following year be a Patriots option. But he drastically improved the secondary and helped with the McCourty transition. If we don't keep him than that is just another glaring hole to fill.


Agreed... If the price is right...
Based on Secondary draft history for the pats i would much rather sign a FA and draft Dline/WR then the other way around
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mcmurtry86


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2013 7:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TomRalph wrote:

You've changed your tune on both Dowling and Wilson then Confused

Whenever they've been mentioned before you've said they are positions that can be upgraded.


I haven't changed my tune at all. I'm a big Dowling fan and decidedly undecided about Wilson. Wilson didn't show much this year IMO but it's way too early to call him a bust. If they can upgrade that spot with a proven veteran, so be it. That doesn't mean that Wilson will end up being a flop.

Dowling, I love his ability but between his injuries and getting leapfrogged by just about everyone in camp, it's tough to count on him. If he can put it together, he has excellent starting ability. I don't think he's shown enough (specifically this summer) to warrant holding a de facto roster spot if an opportunity to upgrade presents itself.

Not categorizing guys as busts doesn't mean that they can't be upgraded or that I think they're going to be contributors. It's too early to tell.

Quote:

I, for one, am not saying that every 2nd Round pick needs to be Gronkowski, or every 4th Round pick has to be Geno Atkins or every 5th Round pick has to be Richard Sherman etc. but if a player can be 'upgraded' - no matter which round they are drafted in- then they haven't been as successful as you'd like.


That's just not true. You simply cannot expect to draft "unupgradeable" players at every pick. Ridley is a nice RB but he could be upgraded (obviously that would come at a high cost). I would definitely call Brandon Deaderick a success as a 7th round pick, but he could be upgraded. Unless you're drafting the top player in the NFL at a given position, you've picked a player who is upgradeable.

Finding a nice role player or quality special teamer in rounds 4-7 is a success. If you get a starter, you've done extremely well (and gotten lucky in most cases).

My expectations and the percent of picks IMO a team should hit or exceed expectations on in a given round over the long term

Round 1 - long term starter (90%)
Round 2 - short term starter or very valuable role player (50%)
Round 3 - decent role player or fringe starter (33%)
Round 4 - mediocre role player, high quality special teamer or specialist (25%)
Round 5 - fringe roster player, useful special teamer (20%)
Round 6 - Short term roster filler (15%)
Round 7/UDFA - Emergency depth player or major project (10%)

Quote:

You don't spend the 33rd or 48th Overall pick on a guy that can be upgraded within his first 2 years in the league (for injury reasons or ability reasons) and if you do then those picks have not worked out.


Again, you're missing my point. There is a chance Dowling proves to be worth the 33rd overall pick and Wilson proves worth the 48th overall pick. But as of right now, they are upgradable pieces. That doesn't make them busts. It makes them unknown. Those concepts can (and often do) exist in the same reality.

Quote:

I'm still holding out hope for both these guys - I'm not a pessimist by any means - but I don't think anyone is expecting much in terms of serious PT or impact on the team and if that is the situation 2 years after you've drafted the guy, then that is not a good draft pick.


Again, you're declaring it "not a good draft pick" without knowing how Dowling's Pats career is going to end up. For all you know, he could be a 16 game starter next year. Or maybe he's cut in August. What we do know is that he is a guy who looked excellent in 2011 camp and played well enough to be an opening day starter that year. To me, that indicates that - while there is plenty of reason to be skeptical - calling him "not a good draft pick" right now is a bridge too far. It's fair to say the pick hasn't yielded immediate results yet, but making definitive statements about it (and his career) is silly.

Quote:
Ask anyone on FF what they expect out of the 33rd Overall pick, the 48th Overall pick, the 34th Overall pick and I can guarantee that the expectation would be that they are at least on the roster after 4 years - something that Dowling and Chung (and Wilson - based on what he's shown so far) may not achieve. That spells out bust or at least disappointment, which certainly aids my point that the Pats struggle to draft DB's.


The average 2nd round pick is not on his drafting team after 4 years (the end of his rookie contract). That's a proven and demonstrable fact over a large sample size. If that is the FF community's expectation, then they're wrong. Simple as that. I don't operate in a world of others' misguided expectations and misunderstandings of the way the draft works. You and "anyone on FF" are free to believe the Pats are bad at drafting X,Y, and Z. But that doesn't really square with reality. Especially if you're categorically writing off Dowling and Wilson this early in their careers.

2nd round picks are at best a 50/50 proposition to be more than fodder. Pat Chung is a (for lack of a better term) what I would deem a "low end success". He pales in comparison to the really successful 2nd rounders but he's been useful enough to have been better than probably 50% of 2nd rounders over the last 30+ years.

Of that 50-55% of 2nd rounders who end up being quality contributors, a good share of them end up leaving their team after their rookie years (as we might see with Vollmer this year). That's just the way the league is and has been for 20 years.
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nextsuperstar


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 23, 2013 7:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here is the list of CB free agents.

Quote:
Aqib Talib
Brent Grimes
Sean Smith
Chris Houston
Cary Williams
Derek Cox
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
E.J. Biggers
Mike Jenkins
Bradley Fletcher
Keenan Lewis
Sheldon Brown
Quentin Jammer
Brice McCain
Leodis McKelvin
Terence Newman
Kyle Arrington
Tracy Porter
Antoine Cason
Rashean Mathis
Jacob Lacey
Pacman Jones
Jerraud Powers
Joselio Hanson
Darius Butler
Captain Munnerlyn
Stanford Routt
Marcus Trufant
Leigh Bodden
Chris Owens
Shawntae Spencer
Kelvin Hayden
William Middleton
Pat Lee
Cedric Griffin
Greg Toler
D.J. Moore
Michael Adams
Drayton Florence
Ryan Mouton
Zackary Bowman
Michael Coe
Alan Ball
Will Allen
Drew Coleman
Alphonso Smith
Chris Carr
Chris Johnson



http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/42077/309/nfl-free-agent-master-list-13?pg=4


There are some pretty good CBs on that list. Chis Houston for instance.
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FakingInjuries


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 23, 2013 5:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Take a long hard look at veteran Quentin Jammer as well.
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patsfan25


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 23, 2013 6:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't understand the notion that the defense went to crap after he left the game. Talib left early in the first quarter. Once the Ravens started coming out in spread in the second half, we got exploited and they started shredding us.
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24isthelaw


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 23, 2013 6:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

patsfan25 wrote:
I don't understand the notion that the defense went to crap after he left the game. Talib left early in the first quarter. Once the Ravens started coming out in spread in the second half, we got exploited and they started shredding us.


Fair point.

In the first half, the Ravens tried to run to set up the pass, and were thusly shooting themselves in the foot. The defense had gone to crap when Talib left the field, and the Ravens weren't taking advantage of it. When they realized they could just pass every down, instead of challenging the run defense on first downs, they exposed it.
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_Oypus


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 23, 2013 6:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If Talib leaves and Arrington is resigned...I will not be happy.

Arrington's bad. Could he be worse? Sure. Lots of teams have worse guys. But those teams aren't one of the "good" teams around the NFL.
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Sciz


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 23, 2013 7:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

_Oypus wrote:
If Talib leaves and Arrington is resigned...I will not be happy.

Arrington's bad. Could he be worse? Sure. Lots of teams have worse guys. But those teams aren't one of the "good" teams around the NFL.
Belichick's not stupid. If he resigns Arrington and lets Talib go, he's going to do everything in his power to get a CB to start over Arrington.
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