Solving the QB question

[AnafiWhat]

With the change to Marrone from Gailey, which likely means the ditch of Fitz, the #1 question for this club, as it has been since the end of the 1996 season is who will be our QB next season.

This is the most important position in football, and maybe even all of team sports. The great ones win championships, the bad ones can kill you.

Therefore I believe it is the position that requires the most investment as well. And not only in the franchise player, but the position as a whole. Too often teams face injuries/retirements/FA losses at the QB position that can lead to a 5-20yr tailspin. For this reason, I believe a team needs to carry 3 QB's per season, and draft at least one every year, without question, especially a team like Buffalo, who should be taking an "analytical" "moneyball" approach to free agency and the draft as much as possible.

This year there are a variety of ways to get new QB's:

1. Trade-
-Joe Flacco
-Kirk Cousins
-Matt Flynn
-Alex Smith
-Michael Vick
-TJ Yates

-Flacco will almost 100% be franchised or re-signed, and will stay in Baltimore. Smith, Vick and probably Flynn will be cut as well, so we'll digress as they will be debated further. That leaves Cousins and Yates. Cousins has shown potential, and could be a good pickup, but Washington would probably require a lot in return, and even moreso considering the injury to RGIII.

Yates seems to be the most reasonable option if we went this route. He'll only be 26yrs. old this season, has NFL and playoff experience (not much, but it's there) has 3yrs. left on a rookie contract (as a 5th round pick) and likely could be had with a 4th-6th this season and a conditional 2nd-3rd next season based on his performance.

This would be my perfect scenario. It has moneyball written all over it. The guy is an under the radar type player. It's a move that doesn't kill your future in terms of money or talent, and has a huge potential payoff. He might not start a game (like Flynn in Seattle), but I'd rather pay a 3rd and a 5th for a guy who's a decent back-up and on a good contract as opposed to signing a guy for $10M/yr. with even less experience (Flynn) or is an older player who is still relatively unproven (Fitz).


2. Free Agency-
-Michael Vick
-Alex Smith
-Matt Flynn
-Carson Palmer
-Matt Moore
-Jason Campbell

-Campbell, Moore and Palmer too (if he's cut, which I imagine he will be) are not quality starters. Flynn has yet to prove that he is. Vick seems to be proving he isn't, and with his age and injury history, is just not what this team needs to grow with their young core of players.
Alex Smith is the only realistic option here in my opinion. But with that being said, he was bad, but has been good, but has never been great. He's already 29 years old, and while not ancient, that's what we said when Bledsoe came to town. It will cost a good chunk of change, and seems to be an option that "puts all of our eggs in one basket". This is not how we should be operating. We should not be limiting ourselves as an organization. The Bills should be keeping as many possible avenues open as possible, and Alex Smith doesn't do that. But on the other hand, he's not good enough to say "OK, this IS my guy, 100%, now I just want to get a decent back-up in case trouble arises and maybe sign some undrafted kid to bring along".

This hasn't worked, it doesn't work, and it will continue to not work for us. If we are to succeed, we need keep the quarterback stable FULL, at ALL TIMES. And this is why I'm against signing a guy like Smith, Vick, or Flynn.


3. Draft

-Smith
-Wilson
-Glennon
-Barkley
-Nassib
-Boyd*
-Jones
-Bray
-Manuel
-Dysert

-Any of these guys could become studs, or duds. At the end of the day, it's a crap shoot. What we need to do is limit our chances of messing it up, and hence, increase our chances of getting it right. This year we have the 8th pick. I don't believe any of these quarterbacks is worth trading up for (that's my opinion, and in general my draft philosophy unless it's for a generational talent such as RGIII, or John Elway, etc.). I do believe in trading down. If the Bills really, truly believe that their guy is worth the 8th overall pick, then take him there. Whether it be Wilson, Barkley, Smith, Glennon or Nassib, take him.

Personally I believe there is a process of elimination in my choosing of these players. And please realize this is all just based on personal opinion.

Smith- System QB who put up huge numbers with great weapons against bad defenses.

Wilson- Quirky side-arm reminds me too much of David Carr, and everyone saying he's 6'1" or 6'2" or might be 6'0", kind of scares me into thinking that in the NFL his motion will get a lot of passes batted down, and he might already have a little nervous pocket syndrome, again, similar to Carr.

Glennon- He's got a cannon, but if a guy is that big, and that immobile, he better at least have good mechanics in his upper AND lower body. Yes this can be taught, but I just think looking at guys like Rodgers, RGIII, Russell Wilson, etc. that this is becoming a mobile QB league. Yes, you have your Brady and Manning, but they also have an amazing presence in the pocket knowing exactly when to step up a bit, or back or to the side in order to maximize their protection inside the pocket. Glennon to me just doesn't have that.


-Therefore to me, the top 2 choices for the Bills would be Nassib and Barkley. Barkley has all the pedigree, but to me, I just don't want a guy with any questions to his arm strength throwing downfield on Sunday's at the Ralph. For me it's Nassib. It is weird because he's the Syracuse guy, and his head coach and OC are now with Buffalo, and it scares the S*** outta me, but I think this is the right move for the Bills. Especially if they got Yates. The Bills could trade down from 8 and get Nassib in the middle of the 1st, or trade back into the 1st to get him, or take him at 8 if his stock is rising high enough.

-Let's assume Nassib does well at the Senior Bowl and really makes a big jump, and Buffalo takes him at 8.

-But that's not the end. I said 3 quarterbacks. We only have 2. And I don't feel it's of ANY use at all to spend a roster spot or practice squad spot on some undrafted FA who will likely never play a regular season snap, even to just kneel the ball. So, out of the guys mentioned above, one is likely to fall, as is per usual. Between Bray, Jones, Manuel, and Dysert (along with Boyd if he declares), one will likely fall into the later (4th-5th) round range. If the Bills are picking in the 4th and 3 of those guys are still there, then wait a little while, move up if you have to, and pluck one.

He might not start. He might not even make second string in his entire time with the team. But he might, and he might do well and increase his trade value. Maybe at the end of the season, Yates did well, but got hurt, and Nassib performed well enough to look like the following season's starter. At that point, Yates should be dealt, because in this league, someone is always looking for a QB (usually a lot of someones), and if you deal him, your late-round guy (I would prefer Manuel), gets a shot at the backup spot the next season... after battling the 3rd QB we pick up the next season.

This is how the QB position SHOULD be handled...

At least in my opinion. Please post your comments. I know it was a long read, but I appreciate it.

[NIKEJWN]

Hey man great read and good stuff but I have to disagree with your thinking.

With what you are saying. Trade for Yates which will be I dont know a third and maybe more will say 1 pick.

Drafting Nassib- 1 pick

Drafting another QB in the middle rounds

and remember we traded a pick for T Jack

so basically your saying use 4-5 picks on a QB.

If that is the case I just completely hate it. We have way to many needs and yes I know QB is that important but I just dont like risking that many picks on question marks and every QB you have mention will have question marks. We still have glaring holes at LB CB WR positions that needs fixing to. I would much rather go the free agent route in finding a couple QB's maybe bringing back T Jack and adding their guy in the draft.
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Max's 2010 Annual Draft Contest Winner


Adopt a Bill 2011- SS George Wilson
CB Drayton Florence

[Yibbyl]

As said above, great read...though I am biased because we think alike on the skills of the majority of the QB's you mentioned.

I am not totally opposed to this strategy of dealing with the QB position, however, like Nike, I have a real problem dedicating that many draft picks to this position. You also posted elsewhere another lengthy and interesting post on the LB corps. (Thanks for taking the time to do so BTW.) The main problem I have with both of these posts of yours is that though there are some terrific ideas in them, they logically cannot be completely implemented in just 1 off-season. So, back to this post, while I like the strategy, it would make mores sense to accept that we can only do a portion of this in this off-season and try to fully commit to the ideology after a 2nd off-season. So, for example, we might try to hang onto either Jackson or even Fitz for 1 more year or sign Yates (if we can't keep one of those), then draft a 1st or 2nd round rookie for the future, and finally go the UFA route this year for sure to fill the 3rd QB spot. Also, in the future, I'm not opposed to using UFA's for the 3rd string spot because I really don't want to commit too many resources (draft picks or $$$) to someone who is likely not going to even be given very many snaps in practice, let alone in the actual regular season games.
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[Tk3]

I still think you take your lumps for one more year with Fitz (or a 1 year Vick signing if it turns out more advantageous to our cap).. Meanwhile you draft the most skilled QB in the draft (yes, I am pimping Tyler Bray once again), then give it over to Bray in 2014 season..

I dont want any QB that has questionable arm strength.. Bray is the man..
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[jsnydes]

[Maxmw22]

Even before today, even though it is a high price, if Flacco gets franchised, we should sign him long term, poison pill the contract, and forfeit two 1st's
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[BillsGuy82]

[Yibbyl]

I haven't taken the time to investigate this and still don't feel like doing it, so why do so many people think Flacco will be leaving? Someone like the 49ers Smith I understand, but Flacco?
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[bigbadbuff23835]

[cdavls17]

Realistic move for the bills, cut Fitzpatrick. Sign Matt Moore or Matt Flynn for a 2 years 5 million contract and draft a QB with the 2nd or 3rd round picks.

Not saying I want these 2 guys I just think they want to get a veteran qb that can get the transition process going by alleviating the bills from fitzpatricks contract, and bringing in a rookie who will need a year under his belt.

Everyone thinks that keeping fitzpatrick is the smart move because they don't get much in cap space however, by cutting him frees the team of a $7.45 million burden on the books in 2013. More importantly it gets him off the cap sheets in 2014, where he would carry a $7 million dollar dead money charge. Keeping him would be more harmful then helpful
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Thanks Max

[Maxmw22]

[Yibbyl]

[cdavls17]

Its dead money in 2014 if he stays on with the team in 2013. It will be dead cap this year if cut this offseason. I think a veteran qb for cheap money would be the best bet because the bills have alot of issues and the draft offers zero starting qbs. By having a bridge with a low veteran amount this will be cap friendly and the bills can hit other needs. By signing a guy like Matt moore, or even Chase Daniels ( he has been in Marrones system when he was OC with Saints and he is a FA) he sat behind one of the best QBs in the league. Then draft a qb in the 2nd or 3rd and give him time to learn the system and not rush on the field right away. Best Case scenario is the QB the bills draft is a steal and actually can start if he out beats the vet QB
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Thanks Max

[BBIB]

Step 1) Sign Vick

Step 2) Install the Pistol Offense

Step 3) Party like it's 1999 and make the playoffs

Step 4) Don't sign Vick to $100 million dollar contract after one post season appearance in the off-season

Step 5-7) Come back with adding more pieces around him and drafting a QB of the future, and be a legitimate title contender

[AnafiWhat]

I just feel that the league is moving to more mobile QB's, more read/option, things of that nature which will eventually lead to more injuries and a greater need for better backups at the position. I also believe that when you look at trading for a guy like Yates, if he's not your starter, you can likely deal him away in 2 seasons and get back the picks you dealt for him and then some. As for the draft, I have no idea what they're thinking, but really, I might even consider signing Alex Smith or even Vick, drafting a guy like Manuel and waiting till next years draft to get our guy.

So many possibilities for this team right now I admit I'm very excited to see how it develops.