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vike daddy
Joined: 12 Mar 2005
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 Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 2:17 am Post subject: |
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| Lil Uno wrote: | To me, based on the last years and Spielman's comments on the draft I'd have to think that our first round pick will be used on either a G, ILB, or WR.
Spielman has shown a tendency to hit needs depending on how strong the position is in the draft. In 2011, QB was a huge need. After an early run on QBs, Spielman knew the rest of the class was weak so he took Ponder. Then in the 2nd round, we knew Shiancoe was on his way out so they took Rudolph in a very weak class. It was so weak, the only other starter from that class is Lance Kendricks and he isn't anything to write home about.
Then last year, our LT spot had a major hole. There was no other prospect that could come in and start from day 1, which is why we went with Matt. Then we move back into the 1st for Harrison, because after Barron and Smith the rest of the class was very uninspiring. CB was a need as well but the draft was deep, which is why we waited until the 3rd round to address it.
Spielman attacks the weaker positions early in the draft, which leads me to believe the first selection will come down to the aforementioned positions. The draft is strong at the top with Guards, ILB's and WR's but it drops off significantly after round 2. Corner, Defensive Tackle, and Outside Linebacker are deep throughout the draft, which is why I have a hard time seeing Rhodes as our first pick. |
^ that's one hell of an analysis.
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Kellerman
Joined: 16 May 2010
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Location: Amsterdam
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| Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 7:31 am Post subject: |
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| Lil Uno wrote: | To me, based on the last years and Spielman's comments on the draft I'd have to think that our first round pick will be used on either a G, ILB, or WR.
Spielman has shown a tendency to hit needs depending on how strong the position is in the draft. In 2011, QB was a huge need. After an early run on QBs, Spielman knew the rest of the class was weak so he took Ponder. Then in the 2nd round, we knew Shiancoe was on his way out so they took Rudolph in a very weak class. It was so weak, the only other starter from that class is Lance Kendricks and he isn't anything to write home about.
Then last year, our LT spot had a major hole. There was no other prospect that could come in and start from day 1, which is why we went with Matt. Then we move back into the 1st for Harrison, because after Barron and Smith the rest of the class was very uninspiring. CB was a need as well but the draft was deep, which is why we waited until the 3rd round to address it.
Spielman attacks the weaker positions early in the draft, which leads me to believe the first selection will come down to the aforementioned positions. The draft is strong at the top with Guards, ILB's and WR's but it drops off significantly after round 2. Corner, Defensive Tackle, and Outside Linebacker are deep throughout the draft, which is why I have a hard time seeing Rhodes as our first pick. |
I don't see Spielman going guard in the 1st. Apart from Kalil, the Vikings have shown they can develop interior OL (Sullivan, Fusco). A guard does not require the elite athleticism of a tackle like Kalil, and can be found later.
In the case of Kalil, the positional value was there. I mostly agree with your post(s), but I think that positional value will drop guard from consideration with our first pick.
1/2) ILB/WR 3) OG seems a likely route given Spielman's tendencies.
Btw, I wouldn't be surprised either if we wait until late to pick a lineman.
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Patv
Joined: 14 Mar 2009
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| Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 12:47 pm Post subject: |
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| Kellerman wrote: | | Lil Uno wrote: | To me, based on the last years and Spielman's comments on the draft I'd have to think that our first round pick will be used on either a G, ILB, or WR.
Spielman has shown a tendency to hit needs depending on how strong the position is in the draft. In 2011, QB was a huge need. After an early run on QBs, Spielman knew the rest of the class was weak so he took Ponder. Then in the 2nd round, we knew Shiancoe was on his way out so they took Rudolph in a very weak class. It was so weak, the only other starter from that class is Lance Kendricks and he isn't anything to write home about.
Then last year, our LT spot had a major hole. There was no other prospect that could come in and start from day 1, which is why we went with Matt. Then we move back into the 1st for Harrison, because after Barron and Smith the rest of the class was very uninspiring. CB was a need as well but the draft was deep, which is why we waited until the 3rd round to address it.
Spielman attacks the weaker positions early in the draft, which leads me to believe the first selection will come down to the aforementioned positions. The draft is strong at the top with Guards, ILB's and WR's but it drops off significantly after round 2. Corner, Defensive Tackle, and Outside Linebacker are deep throughout the draft, which is why I have a hard time seeing Rhodes as our first pick. |
I don't see Spielman going guard in the 1st. Apart from Kalil, the Vikings have shown they can develop interior OL (Sullivan, Fusco). A guard does not require the elite athleticism of a tackle like Kalil, and can be found later.
In the case of Kalil, the positional value was there. I mostly agree with your post(s), but I think that positional value will drop guard from consideration with our first pick.
1/2) ILB/WR 3) OG seems a likely route given Spielman's tendencies.
Btw, I wouldn't be surprised either if we wait until late to pick a lineman. |
You're exactly right. I do not think we take a guard in the first unless Warmack drops considerably. I really think Lil Uno is exactly right saying that we'll go WR and ILB in the 1st and 2nd rounds.
I do not see CB as big of a need as WR and ILB and there can be corners found later in the draft. This draft is very deep on D lineman and I think that we can get a 2nd round prospect (in most drafts) in the 4th round this year. |
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CriminalMind
Joined: 25 Aug 2011
Posts: 2965
Location: Toronto, CA
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| Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 1:04 pm Post subject: |
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My feeling is I dont think Rick takes CB at pick 23 unless Dee/Banks is there.
My feeling is also that we wont take OG at pick 23 unless Warmack is there
I think FA is going to determine what position we take in the draft in the 1st and 2nd round.
Did we cut K-Will, and they dont want to go with a Griffen-Evans rotation
Did we lose Erin at LB?
Did we sign anyone of significance at the WR spot.
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LoverInTheCold
Joined: 27 Feb 2005
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Location: Piscataway, NJ
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| Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 1:29 pm Post subject: |
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| Lil Uno wrote: | For informational purposes, I'd like to know how you determined Xaiver Rhodes would be our 1st pick.
To me, based on the last years and Spielman's comments on the draft I'd have to think that our first round pick will be used on either a G, ILB, or WR.
Spielman has shown a tendency to hit needs depending on how strong the position is in the draft. In 2011, QB was a huge need. After an early run on QBs, Spielman knew the rest of the class was weak so he took Ponder. Then in the 2nd round, we knew Shiancoe was on his way out so they took Rudolph in a very weak class. It was so weak, the only other starter from that class is Lance Kendricks and he isn't anything to write home about.
Then last year, our LT spot had a major hole. There was no other prospect that could come in and start from day 1, which is why we went with Matt. Then we move back into the 1st for Harrison, because after Barron and Smith the rest of the class was very uninspiring. CB was a need as well but the draft was deep, which is why we waited until the 3rd round to address it.
Spielman attacks the weaker positions early in the draft, which leads me to believe the first selection will come down to the aforementioned positions. The draft is strong at the top with Guards, ILB's and WR's but it drops off significantly after round 2. Corner, Defensive Tackle, and Outside Linebacker are deep throughout the draft, which is why I have a hard time seeing Rhodes as our first pick. |
Great analysis, Uno. Definitely some very good points. But to answer your question, I simply stick to the formula: Spielman schools, positions of need, CBS rankings.
Both Manti T'eo and Keenan Allen are ranked too high by CBS to slip to #23. That leaves us with a pool of the following players:
Xavier Rhodes, CB, FSU (#18 overall)
John Jenkins, DT, Georgia (#29 overall)
Matt Elam, SS, Florida (#30 overall)
Robert Woods, WR, USC (#31 overall)
Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida (#39 overall)
Of those players, Rhodes is far and away the best value for the slot. And with the exception of perhaps the Ponder pick, Spielman (like most GMs) has a track record of drafting for value. We also have an outgoing or nearly outgoing starter at CB in Winfield. And while Josh Robinson may indeed fill that role yet, CB is a position that seemingly always needs a constant refill.
As far as dropoff, my personal feelings are that the dropoff at CB is rather steep after Rhodes.
At any rate, that's where I was at when I put this together.
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vike daddy
Joined: 12 Mar 2005
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| Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 2:38 pm Post subject: |
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absolutely top shelf discussion going on in this thread. a pleasure to read.
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disaacs
Joined: 13 Dec 2005
Posts: 19972
Location: Brownbackistan
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| Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:23 pm Post subject: |
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| Patv wrote: | | Kellerman wrote: | I don't see Spielman going guard in the 1st. Apart from Kalil, the Vikings have shown they can develop interior OL (Sullivan, Fusco). A guard does not require the elite athleticism of a tackle like Kalil, and can be found later.
In the case of Kalil, the positional value was there. I mostly agree with your post(s), but I think that positional value will drop guard from consideration with our first pick.
1/2) ILB/WR 3) OG seems a likely route given Spielman's tendencies.
Btw, I wouldn't be surprised either if we wait until late to pick a lineman. |
You're exactly right. I do not think we take a guard in the first unless Warmack drops considerably. I really think Lil Uno is exactly right saying that we'll go WR and ILB in the 1st and 2nd rounds.
I do not see CB as big of a need as WR and ILB and there can be corners found later in the draft. This draft is very deep on D lineman and I think that we can get a 2nd round prospect (in most drafts) in the 4th round this year. |
I don't see any reason why he wouldn't consider taking a guy like Cooper in the 1st (if he's still there), as it's a late 1st rd pick. We are talking about a guy who took Vernon Carey #1 in his only year as Dolphins' GM. He played most of his career at tackle certainly, but he also did play guard.
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CriminalMind
Joined: 25 Aug 2011
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| Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 4:26 pm Post subject: |
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Warmack is a solid tier about the other OGs.
In regards to Cooper, I have a hard tme seeing his impact being that much better then some of the OGs slotted after him.
I would prefer a more skilled position.
At the end of the day, MIN/Rick has not taken OGs high in drafts, and I dont think that is going to change.
Its also likely that no OG outside of Warmack will even be in the top 5 Best Player Available board when we reach our 23rd pick.
I really like Xavier Rhodes. I agree that the drop off starts after him, but I'm starting to think they would try and pick up a Safety instead of the CB in the 2nd/3rd round to address Secondary beside Harrison Smith.
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Purple Faithful
Joined: 11 Mar 2009
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| Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 7:35 pm Post subject: |
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Don't like it. Center of the defense is where we're not getting it done. A pass rush from the middle and a decent MLB fixes nearly everything. Dallas would be the example of a defense drafting high on the outside all the time. Never works. we have zero DT's imo, and zero MLB's. we have nfl level corners and edge rushers.
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