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Players who get "overscouted"
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Hockey5djh


Joined: 08 Feb 2008
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 2:17 pm    Post subject: Players who get "overscouted" Reply with quote

So i've been doing a little mental research recently while going over some draft stuff. One thing that keeps popping up in my head are players that get "overscouted".

Off the top of my head I can think of players that in their junior years were considered "first round" locks if they left for the NFL but upond returning for their senior season were "overscouted" and fell in the draft due to more minor details like their opinons of their coach or maybe because of a character issue.

2009 - S - William Moore - I only remember me and Phire on this hype train but feel free to throw your name in there, I won't check if you actually were
2010 - LB - Brandon Spikes
2011 - DE - DaQuan Bowers
2012 - LB - Zach Brown
2012 - LB - Vontaze Burfict - I feel like the lead conductor on this train...and all it would have taken is a 7th rounder Evil or Very Mad

Honestly, most of these picks were off the top of my head and I had to go back and look up the years for some of them but they are all (Bowers is questionable) players who have had success in the NFL and were thought to be first round picks in ther Junior year but for some reason they were passed up by "more talented" underclassmen or more "safe" picks.

Is there any reason why this happens? or is it just when the spotlight is on something/someone long enough a defect will be found?
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Blahman88


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 2:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Someone always gets hyped up before the draft, then every analyst tries to pick out their flaws and they drop down everyone draft board.
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baconrad3


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 2:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I liked Zach Brown last year but people on here weren't too big on him. Said he was too much of a small, fast guy a la Ernie Sims. He's pretty good now with the Titans.


Also....I've always been a massive Vontaze supporter. Since his sophomore year of college when I was a freshmen at Arizona State..........I mean he was my favorite player on my school's football team....Obviously I was gonna love the guy. Just goes to show that the combine isn't always as telling as people think.

I actually believe that the only player on your list that hasn't turned out decent is Bowers. Pretty sure he has done OK....had 3 sacks this year. Nothing special just yet.


As for your question....That kind of ish happens. People do overscout someone.....some people overanalyze these guys and end up forgetting what made that player so special in the first place.

Like Vontaze....he was so amazing because he just had a nose for the ball.....hit mofos HARD....and was always flying all over the field. However, he wasn't the best athlete and had a few character issues, so people forgot about what he was so good at.
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Hockey5djh


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 2:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'll give you the Taze bandwagon as well because I forgot about you wearing the ASU trident thing in your avy until now but you were also there Laughing

baconrad3 wrote:
As for your question....That kind of ish happens. People do overscout someone.....some people overanalyze these guys and end up forgetting what made that player so special in the first place.


I guess the mission dollar question is when is enough scouting enough?

If the above players weren't scouted their senior year they probably would have been first rounders and continue to be productive NFL players.
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ninjapirate


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 2:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The more tape someone has on you the more they can break down your game and find flaws that might have gone unnoticed before.
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baconrad3


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 2:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Also, the combine isn't always some make or break thing like some people believe. Sometimes there are guys who are massively hyped for most of their college career, then get to the combine and don't really do anything impressive, so they drop in the draft. Vontaze is probably the best and most recent example of this.

Then you have guys like Russell Wilson.....Where he had everyhting scouts looked for but people completely overanalyzed his height issue.
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ninjapirate


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 2:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

baconrad3 wrote:
Also, the combine isn't always some make or break thing like some people believe. Sometimes there are guys who are massively hyped for most of their college career, then get to the combine and don't really do anything impressive, so they drop in the draft. Vontaze is probably the best and most recent example of this.

Then you have guys like Russell Wilson.....Where he had everyhting scouts looked for but people completely overanalyzed his height issue.



Vontaze had a history of being immature and then showed up to the combine out of shape. He at that point was a player that didn't get it and didn't care.
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baconrad3


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 2:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ninjapirate wrote:
baconrad3 wrote:
Also, the combine isn't always some make or break thing like some people believe. Sometimes there are guys who are massively hyped for most of their college career, then get to the combine and don't really do anything impressive, so they drop in the draft. Vontaze is probably the best and most recent example of this.

Then you have guys like Russell Wilson.....Where he had everyhting scouts looked for but people completely overanalyzed his height issue.



Vontaze had a history of being immature and then showed up to the combine out of shape. He at that point was a player that didn't get it and didn't care.


His character issues were overblown. He was a hot-head in college....but that's not some crime. He wasn't out getting arrested, he just was dumb by continuing to smoke marijuana up until the combine.

His combine numbers were definitely a part of why he went undrafted, though. Dude ran a 5.09 40 time and wasn't very good in any other drills, either.

He's just an instinctual player on the field....has a nose for the ball, is very physical, isn't afraid to lay the wood. Wish we had more guys like him on our team.
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oland11


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 2:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I also wanted us to draft Burfict.

And when Bowers kept falling I kept thinking are we going to draft him if he fell to us. He was drafted like 5 spots ahead of our pick though.
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Bednarik60


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ninjapirate wrote:
The more tape someone has on you the more they can break down your game and find flaws that might have gone unnoticed before.


This. Also you give a whole another year for medical concerns to pop up. Seems more times then not if a guy is lucky to say survive his junior season pretty healthy, then say he returns for his senior year, it just seems they run out of luck and get injured at some point, and from there the game tape begins to look really bad.

Example: William Moore, had caught a bad ankle early in his senior season and his weight got up and he looked slower/less effective. So suddenly people are using these clips of William Moore getting beat in the slot on a bad ankle against a healthy fast wide receiver and it just begins to snow ball from there.

There so many circumstances that have to come into effect when grading out these kids. Health is a big factor.

You made a interesting point with this when regarding Barett Jones and his foot injury. Like the reality of it is, is that you were right, this kid may of just cost him self money. With issues about his ceiling/athletic ability/frame, to not participate in the senior bowl, combine/pro day, individual team work outs, is big. Watch him fall to the 4th. and you will be like i told ya so!
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Bednarik60


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The draft works its self out pretty well, You just dont see to many great players fall through the cracks and when they do like a Tom Brady its just a "freak" thing that might not of happened with out the perfect circumstances of that team and player.

Burfict would of sucked for probably 28-29 other teams, if he would of even been able to get through training camp. Dont think Marvin Lewis got into that guys head like few could? Hes a WILL in the Bengals system, where Dhani Jones once lead the league in tackles from for the Bengals. He kinda lucked out by not getting drafted and landing in the right spot in Cinci.

If we drafted Burfict, he would of been cut by camp.
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Conquest8089


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Look at James Laurinaitis. Projected to be a top 10 pick if he had declared following his Junior Year, slides into Round 2 after his Senior Season. Pro Bowl Caliber MLB.

Three other examples of players whose flaws were overemphasized- Calais Campbell & Carlos Dunlap, & Michael Johnson. Campbell was the top DE after his Junior Year and fell to Pick 50. Dunlap had some question marks, but also was a Round 2 Prospect. Johnson with all that length and upside fell into Round 3. All were prototypical 4-3 Ends that FFs in particular loved.

The prospects that get overscouted are the ones where people focus too much on what they cannot do, rather then recognizing their abilities. Kam Chancellor is another example.
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Last edited by Conquest8089 on Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:33 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Hockey5djh


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bednarik60 wrote:
The draft works its self out pretty well, You just dont see to many great players fall through the cracks and when they do like a Tom Brady its just a "freak" thing that might not of happened with out the perfect circumstances of that team and player.

Burfict would of sucked for probably 28-29 other teams, if he would of even been able to get through training camp. Dont think Marvin Lewis got into that guys head like few could? Hes a WILL in the Bengals system, where Dhani Jones once lead the league in tackles from for the Bengals. He kinda lucked out by not getting drafted and landing in the right spot in Cinci.

If we drafted Burfict, he would of been cut by camp.


We had Akeem Jordan starting for a good portion of the year, I HIGHLY doubt that would ahve been the case.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hockey5djh wrote:
Bednarik60 wrote:
The draft works its self out pretty well, You just dont see to many great players fall through the cracks and when they do like a Tom Brady its just a "freak" thing that might not of happened with out the perfect circumstances of that team and player.

Burfict would of sucked for probably 28-29 other teams, if he would of even been able to get through training camp. Dont think Marvin Lewis got into that guys head like few could? Hes a WILL in the Bengals system, where Dhani Jones once lead the league in tackles from for the Bengals. He kinda lucked out by not getting drafted and landing in the right spot in Cinci.

If we drafted Burfict, he would of been cut by camp.


We had Akeem Jordan starting for a good portion of the year, I HIGHLY doubt that would ahve been the case.


Jordan is an excellent ST'er.

Did Bowers produce before his last year?
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RandyMossIsBoss


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You say "overscouted" like it's a bad thing...
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