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2012 In Depth QB Throwing Stats
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RandyMossIsBoss


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 31, 2012 8:44 pm    Post subject: 2012 In Depth QB Throwing Stats Reply with quote

2011 In Depth QB Stats

In parentheses I give the % of the specified stat out of the total intentional attempts. The "Bad Throw" stat is just the number of passes that were more to blame on the QB (overthrow, underthrown, wide) rather than the skill of a CB. The "adjusted QBR," is that players passer rating not including attempts and INTs that weren't his arms fault or were intentionally thrown away (throw aways, spikes, drops, batted, miscommunications, etc.). The Adjusted QBR is more to show how good of a thrower they were, of course it ignores questionable intangibles. Expect adjusted QBRs to be fairly high because they basically are favoring the QB in every instance. (I'm just using QBR as abbreviation here, not at all related to ESPNs total QBR.) Here are an initial 20 QB's stats, I'll add more later. QBs are listed in order of their adjusted QBR


Russell Wilson
20 Passes Dropped
25 Overthrown (6.8%), 1 INT
5 Underthrown (1.4%)
14 Thrown Wide (3.8%), 1 INT
44 "Bad Throws" (12%), 2 INTs
9 Passes Batted At Line (2.5%)
Adjusted QBR: 126.3

Aaron Rodgers
35 Passes Dropped
30 Overthrown (5.6%)
13 Underthrown (2.4%), 1 INT
25 Thrown Wide (4.7%)
68 "Bad Throws" (12.8%), 1 INT
4 Passes Batted At Line (0.8%)
Adjusted QBR: 124.3

Robert Griffin III
28 Passes Dropped
20 Overthrown (5.2%), 2 INTs
10 Underthrown (2.6%)
16 Thrown Wide (4.2%), 1 INT
46 "Bad Throws" (12%), 3 INTs
6 Passes Batted At Line (1.6%)
Adjusted QBR: 120.1

Peyton Manning
35 Passes Dropped
30 Overthrown (5.2%), 2 INTs
13 Underthrown (2.2%), 1 INT
23 Thrown Wide (4.0%), 1 INT
66 "Bad Throws" (11.5%), 4 INT
8 Passes Batted At Line (1.4%)
Adjusted QBR: 118.2

Alex Smith
14 Passes Dropped
17 Overthrown (8.1%), 1 INT
2 Underthrown (1.0%)
7 Thrown Wide (3.3%), 1 INT
26 "Bad Throws" (12.4%), 2 INTs
3 Passes Batted At Line (1.4%)
Adjusted QBR: 117.1

Tom Brady
36 Passes Dropped
43 Overthrown (7%), 2 INTs
20 Underthrown (3.3%)
41 Thrown Wide (6.7%)
104 "Bad Throws" (17%), 2 INTs
8 Passes Batted At Line (1.3%)
Adjusted QBR: 114.9

Drew Brees
36 Passes Dropped
23 Overthrown (3.6%), 2 INTs
19 Underthrown (3%), 1 INT
26 Thrown Wide (4.1%), 3 INTs
68 "Bad Throws" (10.7%), 6 INTs
15 Passes Batted At Line (2.4%)
Adjusted QBR: 114.3

Matt Ryan
28 Passes Dropped
28 Overthrown (4.6%), 2 INTs
10 Underthrown (1.7%)
24 Thrown Wide (4.0%)
62 "Bad Throws" (10.3%), 2 INTs
8 Passes Batted At Line (1.3%)
Adjusted QBR: 113.6

Ben Roethlisberger
19 Passes Dropped
28 Overthrown (6.5%), 2 INTs
7 Underthrown (1.6%)
12 Thrown Wide (2.8%)
47 "Bad Throws" (10.9%), 2 INTs
12 Passes Batted At Line (2.8%)
Adjusted QBR: 113.0

Colin Kaepernick
14 Passes Dropped
14 Overthrown (6.7%)
3 Underthrown (1.4%)
11 Thrown Wide (5.3%)
28 "Bad Throws" (13.4%)
0 Passes Batted At Line (0%)
Adjusted QBR: 111.9

Tony Romo
31 Passes Dropped
41 Overthrown (6.5%)
10 Underthrown (1.6%)
36 Thrown Wide (5.7%), 2 INTs
87 "Bad Throws" (13.8%), 2 INTs
9 Passes Batted At Line (1.4%)
Adjusted QBR: 105.8

Matt Schaub
25 Passes Dropped
33 Overthrown (6.4%), 2 INTs
13 Underthrown (2.5%), 1 INT
29 Thrown Wide (5.5%), 1 INT
75 "Bad Throws" (14.4%), 5 INTs
9 Passes Batted At Line (1.7%)
Adjusted QBR: 104.9

Cam Newton
18 Passes Dropped
48 Overthrown (10.3%), 1 INT
8 Underthrown (1.7%)
26 Thrown Wide (5.6%), 1 INT
82 "Bad Throws" (17.7%), 2 INTs
11 Passes Batted At Line (2.4%)
Adjusted QBR: 104.1

Andy Dalton
23 Passes Dropped
44 Overthrown (8.6%), 3 INTs
2 Underthrown (0.4%)
29 Thrown Wide (5.7%), 2 INTs
75 "Bad Throws" (14.6%), 5 INTs
16 Passes Batted At Line (3.1%)
Adjusted QBR: 103.4

Carson Palmer
34 Passes Dropped
31 Overthrown (5.6%) 1 INT
16 Underthrown (2.9%), 2 INTs
32 Thrown Wide (5.7%), 1 INT
79 "Bad Throws" (14.1%), 4 INTs
13 Passes Batted At Line (2.3%)
Adjusted QBR: 102.6

Philip Rivers
15 Passes Dropped
24 Overthrown (5.0%)
15 Underthrown (3.1%)
35 Thrown Wide (7.2%)
74 "Bad Throws" (15.3%)
4 Passes Batted At Line (0.8%)
Adjusted QBR: 102.4

Josh Freeman
28 Passes Dropped
57 Overthrown (10.6%), 2 INTs
18 Underthrown (3.4%), 2 INTs
34 Thrown Wide (6.3%), 2 INTs
109 "Bad Throws" (20.3%), 6 INTs
15 Passes Batted At Line (2.8%)
Adjusted QBR: 101.6

Joe Flacco
17 Passes Dropped
57 Overthrown (11.1%), 1 INT
5 Underthrown (1%)
34 Thrown Wide (6.6%)
96 "Bad Throws" (18.7%), 1 INT
9 Passes Batted At Line (1.8%)
Adjusted QBR: 101.3

Eli Manning
28 Passes Dropped
35 Overthrown (6.7%) 1 INT
14 Underthrown (2.7%), 1 INT
26 Thrown Wide (5.0%), 1 INT
75 "Bad Throws" (14.4%), 3 INTs
10 Passes Batted At Line (1.9%)
Adjusted QBR: 101.1

Ryan Fitzpatrick
27 Passes Dropped
41 Overthrown (8.2%) 1 INT
17 Underthrown (3.4%), 2 INTs
28 Thrown Wide (5.6%)
86 "Bad Throws" (17.3%), 3 INTs
13 Passes Batted At Line (2.6%)
Adjusted QBR: 99.8

Sam Bradford
23 Passes Dropped
33 Overthrown (6.3%)
7 Underthrown (1.3%)
32 Thrown Wide (6.1%)
72 "Bad Throws" (13.7%)
12 Passes Batted At Line (2.3%)
Adjusted QBR: 99.2

Ryan Tannehill
22 Passes Dropped
33 Overthrown (7.2%), 1 INT
7 Underthrown (1.5%)
31 Thrown Wide (6.7%), 1 INT
71 "Bad Throws" (15.4%), 2 INTs
17 Passes Batted At Line (3.7%)
Adjusted QBR: 95.9

Jay Cutler
27 Passes Dropped
32 Overthrown (7.4%), 2 INTs
14 Underthrown (3.3%)
18 Thrown Wide (4.2%), 1 INT
64 "Bad Throws" (14.9%), 3 INTs
12 Passes Batted At Line (2.8%)
Adjusted QBR: 95.8

Christian Ponder
18 Passes Dropped
33 Overthrown (7.1%), 3 INTs
8 Underthrown (1.7%), 2 INTs
28 Thrown Wide (6.1%), 1 INT
69 "Bad Throws" (14.9%), 6 INTs
3 Passes Batted At Line (0.6%)
Adjusted QBR: 93.9

Matthew Stafford
42 Passes Dropped
44 Overthrown (6.3%), 3 INTs
8 Underthrown (1.1%)
56 Thrown Wide (8.0%), 1 INT
108 "Bad Throws" (15.4%), 4 INTs
11 Passes Batted At Line (1.6%)
Adjusted QBR: 93.6

Michael Vick
13 Passes Dropped
20 Overthrown (6.0%), 2 INTs
11 Underthrown (3.3%), 1 INT
16 Thrown Wide (4.8%), 2 INTs
47 "Bad Throws" (14.2%), 5 INTs
7 Passes Batted At Line (2.1%)
Adjusted QBR: 91.9

Andrew Luck
33 Passes Dropped
53 Overthrown (8.8%), 2 INTs
17 Underthrown (2.8%), 3 INTs
38 Thrown Wide (6.3%), 3 INT
108 "Bad Throws" (17.9%), 8 INTs
13 Passes Batted At Line (2.2%)
Adjusted QBR: 91.6



QBs required a minimum adjusted QBR of 100 and must have attempted 300 or more passes to qualify for the following lists.


"Bad Throw" % (Lowest to Highest)
1. Matt Ryan (So Matt Ryan throws the least amount of "Bad Throws," being higher on these lists are a good thing)
2. Drew Brees
3. Ben Roethlisberger
4. Peyton Manning
5. Russell Wilson
6. Robert Griffin III
7. Aaron Rodgers
8. Tony Romo
9. Carson Palmer
10. Matt Schaub
11. Eli Manning
12. Andy Dalton
13. Philip Rivers
14. Tom Brady
15. Cam Newton
16. Joe Flacco
17. Josh Freeman


Overthrow % (Lowest to Highest)
1. Drew Brees
2. Matt Ryan
3. Philip Rivers
4. Peyton Manning
5. Robert Griffin III
6. Aaron Rodgers
7. Carson Palmer
8. Matt Schaub
9. Tony Romo
10. Ben Roethlisberger
11. Russell Wilson
12. Eli Manning
13. Tom Brady
14. Andy Dalton
15. Cam Newton
16. Josh Freeman
17. Joe Flacco


Thrown Wide % (Lowest to Highest)
1. Ben Roethlisberger
2. Russell Wilson
3. Matt Ryan
4. Peyton Manning
5. Drew Brees
6. Robert Griffin III
7. Aaron Rodgers
8. Eli Manning
9. Matt Schaub
10. Cam Newton
11. Tony Romo
12. Carson Palmer
13. Andy Dalton
14. Josh Freeman
15. Joe Flacco
16. Tom Brady
17. Philip Rivers


Underthrow % (Lowest to Highest)
1. Andy Dalton
2. Joe Flacco
3. Russell Wilson
4. Tony Romo
5. Ben Roethlisberger
6. Matt Ryan
7. Cam Newton
8. Peyton Manning
9. Aaron Rodgers
10. Matt Schaub
11. Robert Griffin III
12. Eli Manning
13. Carson Palmer
14. Drew Brees
15. Philip Rivers
16. Tom Brady
17. Josh Freeman


Batted At Line % (Lowest to Highest)
1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Philip Rivers
3. Tom Brady
4. Matt Ryan
5. Peyton Manning
6. Tony Romo
7. Robert Griffin III
8. Matt Schaub
9. Joe Flacco
10. Eli Manning
11. Carson Palmer
12. Drew Brees
13. Cam Newton
14. Russell Wilson
15. Ben Roethlisberger
16. Josh Freeman
17. Andy Dalton

These stats were compiled using STATS LLC data which can be found on SI.com
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Tzimisce


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 31, 2012 8:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Seems a bit strange that the majority of all these QBs' interceptions come on throws not categorized as 'bad'. Something's off about these numbers.

I wonder if they make a distinction for covered receivers v. open receivers. Hard to believe Brady made that many 'bad' throws to guys who were open.

If you make an on-target throw to a covered receiver, does that not count as a 'bad throw'? Even if it gets picked off?

I've seen these numbers in the past and I think might have even used them in some arguments, but I never really felt comfortable with the way bad throws were characterized.
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johndeere1707


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 31, 2012 9:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So much for Andy Dalton under throwing receivers
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FirstDownFaulk


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 31, 2012 9:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tzimisce wrote:
Seems a bit strange that the majority of all these QBs' interceptions come on throws not categorized as 'bad'. Something's off about these numbers.

I wonder if they make a distinction for covered receivers v. open receivers. Hard to believe Brady made that many 'bad' throws to guys who were open.

If you make an on-target throw to a covered receiver, does that not count as a 'bad throw'? Even if it gets picked off?

I've seen these numbers in the past and I think might have even used them in some arguments, but I never really felt comfortable with the way bad throws were characterized.

He didn't....these in-depth numbers are flawed because how are you able to distinguish between a ball overthrown high, short, or wide from one that's intentionally thrown away ??
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Bobikus


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 31, 2012 9:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tzimisce wrote:
Seems a bit strange that the majority of all these QBs' interceptions come on throws not categorized as 'bad'. Something's off about these numbers.

I wonder if they make a distinction for covered receivers v. open receivers. Hard to believe Brady made that many 'bad' throws to guys who were open.

If you make an on-target throw to a covered receiver, does that not count as a 'bad throw'? Even if it gets picked off?

I've seen these numbers in the past and I think might have even used them in some arguments, but I never really felt comfortable with the way bad throws were characterized.


The Bad throws is literally just the sum of the wide, under, and over thrown.
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 31, 2012 9:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Peyton is MVP how again? Laughing


Aaron Rodgers is still the best QB in the league.
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Tzimisce


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 31, 2012 9:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bobikus wrote:
Tzimisce wrote:
Seems a bit strange that the majority of all these QBs' interceptions come on throws not categorized as 'bad'. Something's off about these numbers.

I wonder if they make a distinction for covered receivers v. open receivers. Hard to believe Brady made that many 'bad' throws to guys who were open.

If you make an on-target throw to a covered receiver, does that not count as a 'bad throw'? Even if it gets picked off?

I've seen these numbers in the past and I think might have even used them in some arguments, but I never really felt comfortable with the way bad throws were characterized.


The Bad throws is literally just the sum of the wide, under, and over thrown.
Yeah, I get that, but there's apparently no distinction for intentional throwaways when all receivers are covered [or appear covered].
A throw that's technically on-target can still be a bad throw if the receiver is covered.
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 31, 2012 9:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bobikus wrote:
Tzimisce wrote:
Seems a bit strange that the majority of all these QBs' interceptions come on throws not categorized as 'bad'. Something's off about these numbers.

I wonder if they make a distinction for covered receivers v. open receivers. Hard to believe Brady made that many 'bad' throws to guys who were open.

If you make an on-target throw to a covered receiver, does that not count as a 'bad throw'? Even if it gets picked off?

I've seen these numbers in the past and I think might have even used them in some arguments, but I never really felt comfortable with the way bad throws were characterized.


The Bad throws is literally just the sum of the wide, under, and over thrown.

Yes....but like I inquired above....how can we distinguish between passes that are actually over thrown, under thrown, or thrown wide and ones intentionally over, under and widely thrown ??
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RandyMossIsBoss


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 31, 2012 9:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tzimisce wrote:
Seems a bit strange that the majority of all these QBs' interceptions come on throws not categorized as 'bad'. Something's off about these numbers.

I wonder if they make a distinction for covered receivers v. open receivers. Hard to believe Brady made that many 'bad' throws to guys who were open.

If you make an on-target throw to a covered receiver, does that not count as a 'bad throw'? Even if it gets picked off?

I've seen these numbers in the past and I think might have even used them in some arguments, but I never really felt comfortable with the way bad throws were characterized.


A majority of their interceptions are in a category called "pass defensed." Which makes sense, so why even bother including that stat? A bad throw does not necessarily equal a "Bad Throw" (you have to understand that for these statistics I made up "Bad Throw" and "Bad Throw"=Overthrow+Underthrow+Thrown Wide). I thought the quotations made it pretty clear that I'm not just referring to bad throws in general, because for example throwing the ball into triple coverage would be a bad throw but if it's on-target then it's not a "Bad Throw."
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 31, 2012 9:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

What I have a hard time understanding is how Ben's WRs are only credited with 19 drops this season.
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Tzimisce


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 31, 2012 9:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

RandyMossIsBoss wrote:
Tzimisce wrote:
Seems a bit strange that the majority of all these QBs' interceptions come on throws not categorized as 'bad'. Something's off about these numbers.

I wonder if they make a distinction for covered receivers v. open receivers. Hard to believe Brady made that many 'bad' throws to guys who were open.

If you make an on-target throw to a covered receiver, does that not count as a 'bad throw'? Even if it gets picked off?

I've seen these numbers in the past and I think might have even used them in some arguments, but I never really felt comfortable with the way bad throws were characterized.


A majority of their interceptions are in a category called "pass defensed." Which makes sense, so why even bother including that stat? A bad throw does not necessarily equal a "Bad Throw" (you have to understand that for these statistics I made up "Bad Throw" and "Bad Throw"=Overthrow+Underthrow+Thrown Wide). I thought the quotations made it pretty clear that I'm not just referring to bad throws in general, because for example throwing the ball into triple coverage would be a bad throw but if it's on-target then it's not a "Bad Throw."


You should probably include the 'passes defensed' numbers, too.
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 31, 2012 9:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I didn't show you guys all the data or the processes I went through to come out with the final results because that'd just be unnecessary, I explained it in the post though. Scroll to the bottom of this page to see the exact same stats I used to compile everything.
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 31, 2012 9:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

RandyMossIsBoss wrote:
I didn't show you guys all the data or the processes I went through to come out with the final results because that'd just be unnecessary, I explained it in the post though. Scroll to the bottom of this page to see the exact same stats I used to compile everything.

We understand.....but who determines if a pass was intentionally thrown away or not ?? If you ask me...only the quarterback knows for sure....
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 31, 2012 9:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tzimisce wrote:
RandyMossIsBoss wrote:
Tzimisce wrote:
Seems a bit strange that the majority of all these QBs' interceptions come on throws not categorized as 'bad'. Something's off about these numbers.

I wonder if they make a distinction for covered receivers v. open receivers. Hard to believe Brady made that many 'bad' throws to guys who were open.

If you make an on-target throw to a covered receiver, does that not count as a 'bad throw'? Even if it gets picked off?

I've seen these numbers in the past and I think might have even used them in some arguments, but I never really felt comfortable with the way bad throws were characterized.


A majority of their interceptions are in a category called "pass defensed." Which makes sense, so why even bother including that stat? A bad throw does not necessarily equal a "Bad Throw" (you have to understand that for these statistics I made up "Bad Throw" and "Bad Throw"=Overthrow+Underthrow+Thrown Wide). I thought the quotations made it pretty clear that I'm not just referring to bad throws in general, because for example throwing the ball into triple coverage would be a bad throw but if it's on-target then it's not a "Bad Throw."


You should probably include the 'passes defensed' numbers, too.


Why? Please reread my original post if you still don't understand the point of this thread... I'm trying to take away as much outside influence as possible to a QBs numbers (pass defense, WRs dropping balls, miscommunications etc.)
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 31, 2012 9:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

RandyMossIsBoss wrote:
Tzimisce wrote:
RandyMossIsBoss wrote:
Tzimisce wrote:
Seems a bit strange that the majority of all these QBs' interceptions come on throws not categorized as 'bad'. Something's off about these numbers.

I wonder if they make a distinction for covered receivers v. open receivers. Hard to believe Brady made that many 'bad' throws to guys who were open.

If you make an on-target throw to a covered receiver, does that not count as a 'bad throw'? Even if it gets picked off?

I've seen these numbers in the past and I think might have even used them in some arguments, but I never really felt comfortable with the way bad throws were characterized.


A majority of their interceptions are in a category called "pass defensed." Which makes sense, so why even bother including that stat? A bad throw does not necessarily equal a "Bad Throw" (you have to understand that for these statistics I made up "Bad Throw" and "Bad Throw"=Overthrow+Underthrow+Thrown Wide). I thought the quotations made it pretty clear that I'm not just referring to bad throws in general, because for example throwing the ball into triple coverage would be a bad throw but if it's on-target then it's not a "Bad Throw."


You should probably include the 'passes defensed' numbers, too.


Why? Please reread my original post if you still don't understand the point of this thread... I'm trying to take away as much outside influence as possible to a QBs numbers (pass defense, WRs dropping balls, miscommunications etc.)

What???

This entire concept is based on "outside influence" and someone's perception of incomplete passes Laughing Laughing
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