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49ers Road to the 2012 Playoffs (Week 16 Update)
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foreveryoung94


Joined: 29 Nov 2008
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 11:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

clarkfn2284 wrote:
foreveryoung94 wrote:
UofMfan909 wrote:
foreveryoung94 wrote:
UofMfan909 wrote:
27 points against the Dolphins was the third most they've allowed all year. More than the best offense in the league (New England) put up just last week, and more than another top ten offense (Cincinnati) put up earlier this year. I'm not going to go through and see how many points each team got off of turnovers, but it's an absolute fact that we put up 27 points directly as a result of the offense, without forcing a single turnover on defense.

I'll agree it was ugly at the beginning, but the results kind of speak for themselves.

Oh, and considering that both of the teams who scored more than us (Houston and Tennessee) both had three interceptions against Tannehill, plus one fumble recovery, (also a defensive touchdown for Tennessee)... yeah, I think it's pretty impressive.
Yeah except more than half of those came as a result of a turn over ( special teams turnovers are just as big ad defensive ones) and a big play that was caused by end of game desperation. If anyone watched this game and think that offense as it is is good enough to win in the next 2 weeks let alone the Superbowl. Ill just calmly decline to discuss football with them anymore.


I like how you cite a "big play" and then try and use it as an argument against the offense. Laughing

Fact: we forced one turnover against the Dolphins today that led to a score.
Fact: we had the third highest point production total of any team against Miami today.
Fact: the two teams who scored more than us against the Dolphins each had four turnovers.

Tennessee scored 37 points against Miami. 7 came on an interception touchdown. 13 came on drives that started in Miami territory. 20 without the help of the defense. Houston scored 24 points on drives that started in Miami territory, or a whopping SIX points without massive help from the defense.

Looking at the three highest scoring outputs (because I'm not going through all 13 of their games), it's pretty easy to see that we scored the most against Miami with the least help from field position thanks to the defense or special teams. Your argument is working against you.


please please stop comparing box scores they are worthless in this situation. yes more than half of our offensive production came on 1 play in which the phins used what amounts to the hail mary defense in desperation at the end of the game, and a 10 yard 2 play drive. they scored 13 points otherwise im going to complain about our offense it sucked today and no box score searching is going to prove to me other wise. In it self thats nbd but this is three straight weeks of the same thing really 15 quaters of really poor offense



what a ridiculous statement.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xm4dDYsI96E

in the link the phiins had 5 down linemen, 3 LB's, 1 DB and 2 safeties. They were in a single high safety, but they were in this formation because the niners were in a single WR set with 3 TE's(2 in the backfield) and single back set. It was a freaking running formation........ if they came out in a spread set you wouldnt find 9 in the box.

Even with that it's a read option play, look at the clip on the PA the dolphins line follows the blocking scheme up the hashes and Kaep makes a great read seeing the over pursuing DE and the rest is history.

it had little to do with your idea that they were going for broke on a 3rd and 5 to stop the run and more to do with the personnel and execution of the play.

Rhis might be the most mis informed post i have ever seen


Really?? uninformed huh?

The defense package is almost always based on the offenses personnel. obviously but thanks for pointing that out. Wink

What made this a hail mary defense was not the formation but the fact that everyone on the right side of the defense pinched in to have a better shot at stopping the run up the middle. Even the super stiff looking back up OLB pinched in making it impossible to make a play on the outside run. They gambled and got caught thats what happens when you are faced with a do or die situation. Kaep clearly has great speed and running ability but it was a perfect play call against the perfect desperate defense that made the play. 20 other QBs would have scored on that play including Alex. I just think that play (which is just about the same as an empty net goal in a hockey game) and the gift 7 points from the special teams masked another poor performance by our offense.

Im sure everyone knows I think our team would be better off with Alex starting. With that said Colin would probably still be a better choice to run out the clock when we have a lead late in games because of his abilities. and would be happy if he filled that role for us this year.
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y2lamanaki


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 1:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

foreveryoung94 wrote:
Really?? uninformed huh?

The defense package is almost always based on the offenses personnel. obviously but thanks for pointing that out. Wink

What made this a hail mary defense was not the formation but the fact that everyone on the right side of the defense pinched in to have a better shot at stopping the run up the middle. Even the super stiff looking back up OLB pinched in making it impossible to make a play on the outside run. They gambled and got caught thats what happens when you are faced with a do or die situation. Kaep clearly has great speed and running ability but it was a perfect play call against the perfect desperate defense that made the play. 20 other QBs would have scored on that play including Alex. I just think that play (which is just about the same as an empty net goal in a hockey game) and the gift 7 points from the special teams masked another poor performance by our offense.

Im sure everyone knows I think our team would be better off with Alex starting. With that said Colin would probably still be a better choice to run out the clock when we have a lead late in games because of his abilities. and would be happy if he filled that role for us this year.


If you think Alex would have scored on that run, you're absolutely crazy, as he doesn't have the pure speed and quickness Kaepernick does to run completely around the ROLB like Kaepernick does on that play. Still, it seems odd that you complain about the offense, praise the perfect playcall, say Alex would be able to make that play, and then wrap it all up with a giant complaint about it happening.

At some point, you're just going to have to realize that the team hasn't done any better or worse since Kaepernick took over, whether you agree with him starting or not. As I pointed out previously, Alex benefited from a short field against the Packers in a game we ultimately won by one score. Same thing happened in the Lions game. Same thing repeatedly happened in the Jets game. However, because it's the guy you prefer that was captaining the offense, you don't complain about it. In fact, you defend it.

Case and point:

http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?p=14883288#14883288

Kaepernick has never had a game as poor as that. And yet you went through and informed us how Alex Smith had 74.5 QBR, and how Vick, Brees, Stafford, Dalton, Cutler, Flacco, Romo, P. Manning, Newton, Freeman, Rivers, Schaub, and Ryan all had worse games, and you also pointed out how Tom Brady only did slightly better. Well all of those games were worse than Kaepernick's against the Dolphins by your measurement. Even better, Brady once again played the same team the week before, and while you defended Alex Smith's QBR as it being slightly less than Brady's, Brady's was considerably less than Kaepernick's. That was less than two months ago. Where is this incredible paradigm shift that's caused you to stop defending a quarterback who actually had a better performance coming from?

Further down that same page, in this post here:

http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?p=14883853#14883853

You say:

Quote:
That is exactly the way our offense is designed he doesnt take extra risks he does pull the ball back the team with superior talent doesnt need to take risks period Alex has also shown an ability to flip a switch and make very agressive throws when needed. But like is the case with any other QB the results are mixed when doing this however which is why we dont do it all the time, we let the other teams in the leage get the pretty passing #s with their 40 passing attempts a game.


So all of a sudden...with a different quarterback...we're supposed to? For the record, I wasn't the one who bolded that. You did.

You also said:

Quote:
This used to happen in every game of Brett Favres career. The scrutiny is just way too much people want a pro bowl performance every week now. and every negative play or any incompletion is blown up into this big deal.


http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?p=14888337#14888337

Then:

Quote:
thats just the thing what people are failing to realize is the first 2 weeks were "pro bowl play" as a matter of fact if he "just played like he did the first 2 weeks" every week he would be in the HOF and one of the greats of all time


http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?p=14889542#14889542

Which, you have Alex in his first two starts:

40 of 57 (70.2%), 457 total yards, 4 total TDs

And you have Kaepernick in his first two starts:

32 of 48 (66.7%), 511 total yards, 4 total TDs


So how is Kaepernick playing at a replaceable level, but Smith at a Pro Bowl level?

Also:

Quote:
Oh yeah the blinders comment thats a new one why is it when ever i get in these discussions with fans that want dismiss our QB I always get accused of wearing blinders when in fact they are blinded by their own desires. I use reason, objectivity, and statistics when making my judgements and I have been proven right pretty much every step of the way.


http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?p=14891301#14891301


And I could go on and on and on, how you agreed with a poster that we shouldn't be complaining when we were 5-2, and now of course under Kaepernick, we're 3-1 (with a pretty decent possibility of finishing 5-2 with him as a starter actually), etc. The question I have - what changed? Besides the quarterback? It's really hard to take what you're saying seriously when it changes based on who's behind center. I realize you're an Alex Smith fan, and I give you a ton of props for being one of the few who stuck behind him well before just last year. You know what? I can't say it. I can say I was wrong about him and that you literally look like a genius, because few could predict how well he has and was doing. But I've tried to remain fair to him since. But when I look at Alex Smith objectively and say I'd rate him as a top 8 QB this season, I look at all the arguments for him, and agree whole-heartedly with a lot of them, and then I just see this badgering by the same people who defended Alex to a quarterback who quite literally is doing no worse. Are there some things he can correct? Absolutely. He has to. But for those who argued for equal treatment of Alex for the past however long the debate has raged...seems kinda hypocritical to change viewpoints just because Alex is no longer the starter. That's my only point.
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rudyZ


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 8:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

y2lamanaki wrote:

If you think Alex would have scored on that run, you're absolutely crazy, as he doesn't have the pure speed and quickness Kaepernick does to run completely around the ROLB like Kaepernick does on that play.



Alex wouldn't have had to outrun the ROLB to get a score. Not him personally, but Delanie was wide open and would have scored easily. All Alex had to do was to suck in the ROLB and lob the ball over his head. Now, it wasn't a guaranteed score, because... Delanie still had to catch the ball...
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SoCalNiner


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 11:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

foreveryoung94 wrote:
20 other QBs would have scored on that play including Alex.


+1, there's no way Alex doesn't score there.


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rudyZ


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 11:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

SoCalNiner wrote:
foreveryoung94 wrote:
20 other QBs would have scored on that play including Alex.


+1, there's no way Alex doesn't score there.




Maybe by "other QBs" he didn't mean starting QBs. Add the Joe Webbs and Seneca Wallaces and Dennis Dixons of this world, and maybe we could get close to 20.
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SoCalNiner


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 12:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rudyZ wrote:
SoCalNiner wrote:
foreveryoung94 wrote:
20 other QBs would have scored on that play including Alex.


+1, there's no way Alex doesn't score there.




Maybe by "other QBs" he didn't mean starting QBs. Add the Joe Webbs and Seneca Wallaces and Dennis Dixons of this world, and maybe we could get close to 20.


You'd have to throw in retired players to get to 20.

He also said that one Kaep run counted for half of our offensive production. 50 is not half of 271....

I'm pretty sure he was just over exaggerating on both counts.
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rudyZ


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 1:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SoCalNiner wrote:
rudyZ wrote:
SoCalNiner wrote:
foreveryoung94 wrote:
20 other QBs would have scored on that play including Alex.


+1, there's no way Alex doesn't score there.




Maybe by "other QBs" he didn't mean starting QBs. Add the Joe Webbs and Seneca Wallaces and Dennis Dixons of this world, and maybe we could get close to 20.


You'd have to throw in retired players to get to 20.

He also said that one Kaep run counted for half of our offensive production. 50 is not half of 271....

I'm pretty sure he was just over exaggerating on both counts.



He also exaggerated about his user name. As he grows older, he'll only be young for a couple more years, max. Not forever.
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clarkfn2284


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 3:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

foreveryoung94 wrote:
clarkfn2284 wrote:
foreveryoung94 wrote:
UofMfan909 wrote:
foreveryoung94 wrote:
UofMfan909 wrote:
27 points against the Dolphins was the third most they've allowed all year. More than the best offense in the league (New England) put up just last week, and more than another top ten offense (Cincinnati) put up earlier this year. I'm not going to go through and see how many points each team got off of turnovers, but it's an absolute fact that we put up 27 points directly as a result of the offense, without forcing a single turnover on defense.

I'll agree it was ugly at the beginning, but the results kind of speak for themselves.

Oh, and considering that both of the teams who scored more than us (Houston and Tennessee) both had three interceptions against Tannehill, plus one fumble recovery, (also a defensive touchdown for Tennessee)... yeah, I think it's pretty impressive.
Yeah except more than half of those came as a result of a turn over ( special teams turnovers are just as big ad defensive ones) and a big play that was caused by end of game desperation. If anyone watched this game and think that offense as it is is good enough to win in the next 2 weeks let alone the Superbowl. Ill just calmly decline to discuss football with them anymore.


I like how you cite a "big play" and then try and use it as an argument against the offense. Laughing

Fact: we forced one turnover against the Dolphins today that led to a score.
Fact: we had the third highest point production total of any team against Miami today.
Fact: the two teams who scored more than us against the Dolphins each had four turnovers.

Tennessee scored 37 points against Miami. 7 came on an interception touchdown. 13 came on drives that started in Miami territory. 20 without the help of the defense. Houston scored 24 points on drives that started in Miami territory, or a whopping SIX points without massive help from the defense.

Looking at the three highest scoring outputs (because I'm not going through all 13 of their games), it's pretty easy to see that we scored the most against Miami with the least help from field position thanks to the defense or special teams. Your argument is working against you.


please please stop comparing box scores they are worthless in this situation. yes more than half of our offensive production came on 1 play in which the phins used what amounts to the hail mary defense in desperation at the end of the game, and a 10 yard 2 play drive. they scored 13 points otherwise im going to complain about our offense it sucked today and no box score searching is going to prove to me other wise. In it self thats nbd but this is three straight weeks of the same thing really 15 quaters of really poor offense



what a ridiculous statement.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xm4dDYsI96E

in the link the phiins had 5 down linemen, 3 LB's, 1 DB and 2 safeties. They were in a single high safety, but they were in this formation because the niners were in a single WR set with 3 TE's(2 in the backfield) and single back set. It was a freaking running formation........ if they came out in a spread set you wouldnt find 9 in the box.

Even with that it's a read option play, look at the clip on the PA the dolphins line follows the blocking scheme up the hashes and Kaep makes a great read seeing the over pursuing DE and the rest is history.

it had little to do with your idea that they were going for broke on a 3rd and 5 to stop the run and more to do with the personnel and execution of the play.

Rhis might be the most mis informed post i have ever seen


Really?? uninformed huh?

The defense package is almost always based on the offenses personnel. obviously but thanks for pointing that out. Wink

What made this a hail mary defense was not the formation but the fact that everyone on the right side of the defense pinched in to have a better shot at stopping the run up the middle. Even the super stiff looking back up OLB pinched in making it impossible to make a play on the outside run. They gambled and got caught thats what happens when you are faced with a do or die situation. Kaep clearly has great speed and running ability but it was a perfect play call against the perfect desperate defense that made the play. 20 other QBs would have scored on that play including Alex. I just think that play (which is just about the same as an empty net goal in a hockey game) and the gift 7 points from the special teams masked another poor performance by our offense.

Im sure everyone knows I think our team would be better off with Alex starting. With that said Colin would probably still be a better choice to run out the clock when we have a lead late in games because of his abilities. and would be happy if he filled that role for us this year.



The OLB did not pinch at all dude look at it again. he takes 2 steps upfield and a half a step inward. He only moved towards the middle of the field after the PA. He was supposed to contain the edge. He did a terrible job of that because the PA on the option froze him. how you say the Dolphins gambled is beyond me. There wasnt a single blitzer on that play. The had 3 down lineman who attempted to penetrate the center of the niners o line.(who btw was blocking right, causing the defense to follow) It was a misdirection play. Block right, run left off the PA. A gamble would have been bringing the house to the middle of the field.

This play happened because of a great play call and and even better PA to freeze the LB's.

So yes it's still mis informed.
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rice wasn't close to do as good as his stats would lead one to assume


okie dokie!!! He only had 1200 rec yards at 40, but he clearly isnt as good as it appears.
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 1:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

BEST REMAINING POSSIBILITY: Home Field Advantage Throughout Playoffs

BEST POSSIBILITY IN WEEK 16: Clinch First Round Bye



49ers Clinch Division in Week 16 if:

49ers win




Clinch division:

-1 49ers win

or

-1 Seahawks loss



Clinch 1st round bye:

-2 49ers wins

-1 49ers wins + 1 Packers loss or tie

-0 49ers win + 2 Packers losses (or 1 Packers loss + 1 Packers tie) + 1 Seahawks loss or tie



Home field advantage throughout playoffs:

-2 49ers wins + 2 Falcons losses
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