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Woz
Joined: 10 Mar 2006
Posts: 19386
Location: in a land where the furniture folds to a much smaller size
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 Posted: Tue Nov 27, 2012 12:52 am Post subject: |
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Post Week 13.
NFC Wildcard: Again, three way draw between Minnesota, Seattle, and Tampa Bay. Minnesota is still eliminated because of Seattle and Tampa having beat them, and Seattle still owns a better conference record (5-4 vs. 4-4).
AFC Wildcard: Pittsburgh gets in ahead of Cincinnati due to head-to-head win in week 7. This is tenuous though, as the Bengals have a return date in week 16 (both have week division records: 1-2 for the Steelers, and 1-3 for the Bengals).
Incidentally, even though Minnesota was beaten by Tampa, the Bucs have a higher draft pick because the first tiebreaker for the draft order is strength of schedule. If those were tied, then the Vikings would pick first because of their loss to Tampa.
| Code: | # TEAM PCT SOS
1 KAN 0.091 0.506
2 JAC 0.182 0.551
3 OAK 0.273 0.460
4 CLE 0.273 0.506
5 PHI 0.273 0.511
6 CAR 0.273 0.523
7 SDG 0.364 0.455
8 BUF 0.364 0.477
9 NYJ 0.364 0.511
10 TEN 0.364 0.534
11 ARI 0.364 0.551
12 DET 0.364 0.574
13 STL 0.409 0.534
14 MIA 0.455 0.494
15 WAS 0.455 0.503 -> traded to STL
16 NOR 0.455 0.509
17 DAL 0.455 0.523
18 CIN 0.545 0.449
19 TAM 0.545 0.469
20 MIN 0.545 0.540
-------------------------------
21 PIT 0.545 0.455 PLAYOFF TEAMS
22 SEA 0.545 0.500
23 IND 0.636 0.466
24 NYG 0.636 0.509
25 GRB 0.636 0.534
26 DEN 0.727 0.466
27 CHI 0.727 0.500
28 NWE 0.727 0.506
29 SFO 0.773 0.494
30 BAL 0.818 0.477
31 ATL 0.909 0.409
32 HOU 0.909 0.506 |
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The Gnat
Joined: 23 Feb 2005
Posts: 35776
Location: Minneapolis
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Woz
Joined: 10 Mar 2006
Posts: 19386
Location: in a land where the furniture folds to a much smaller size
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| Posted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 12:51 am Post subject: |
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| The Gnat wrote: | http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=ycn-11011782
Vikings McNabb trade does not trip the conditional 6th round pick for this year, so the Vikings will not lose their 6th round pick. |
*grumbles something fierce*
You couldn't have played a few more snaps, McNabb? Really?!
Anyway, post week 13 draft order:
| Code: | # TEAM PCT SOS
1 KAN 0.167 0.505
2 JAC 0.167 0.552
3 OAK 0.250 0.464
4 PHI 0.250 0.510
5 CAR 0.250 0.516
6 SDG 0.333 0.464
7 CLE 0.333 0.516
8 TEN 0.333 0.536
9 ARI 0.333 0.552
10 DET 0.333 0.563
11 BUF 0.417 0.490
12 NOR 0.417 0.503
13 MIA 0.417 0.510
14 NYJ 0.417 0.516
15 STL 0.458 0.526
16 TAM 0.500 0.466
17 WAS 0.500 0.497 -> traded to STL
18 DAL 0.500 0.516
19 MIN 0.500 0.531
20 CIN 0.583 0.453
---------------------------
21 PIT 0.583 0.464
22 SEA 0.583 0.495
23 NYG 0.583 0.513
24 IND 0.667 0.469
25 CHI 0.667 0.495
26 GRB 0.667 0.510
27 SFO 0.708 0.495
28 DEN 0.750 0.469
29 BAL 0.750 0.500
30 NWE 0.750 0.510
31 ATL 0.917 0.396
32 HOU 0.917 0.500 |
Pittsburgh gets into the playoffs instead Cincinnati because of head-to-head win. |
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Woz
Joined: 10 Mar 2006
Posts: 19386
Location: in a land where the furniture folds to a much smaller size
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| Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 12:41 am Post subject: |
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After Week 14:
| Code: | # TEAM PCT SOS
1 KAN 0.154 0.500
2 JAC 0.154 0.538
3 OAK 0.231 0.457
4 PHI 0.308 0.510
5 CAR 0.308 0.510
6 TEN 0.308 0.529
7 ARI 0.308 0.563
8 DET 0.308 0.563
9 SDG 0.385 0.452
10 BUF 0.385 0.495
11 MIA 0.385 0.510
12 CLE 0.385 0.510
13 NOR 0.385 0.512
14 TAM 0.462 0.478
15 NYJ 0.462 0.510
16 STL 0.500 0.529
17 CIN 0.538 0.457
18 WAS 0.538 0.507 -> traded to STL
19 DAL 0.538 0.519
20 MIN 0.538 0.524
---------------------------
21 PIT 0.538 0.471
22 SEA 0.615 0.505
23 CHI 0.615 0.505
24 NYG 0.615 0.522
25 IND 0.692 0.457
26 BAL 0.692 0.505
27 GRB 0.692 0.505
28 SFO 0.731 0.500
29 DEN 0.769 0.457
30 NWE 0.769 0.505
31 ATL 0.846 0.404
32 HOU 0.846 0.495 |
Notes:
 Pittsburgh still gets in ahead of Cincinnati because of head-to-head win
Right now, Philadelphia would pick 4th ahead of Carolina. They are tied on record and strength of schedule, so it goes to conference tiebreaker. Since Carolina beat Philadelphia in week 12, the Eagles pick first. It does not go to a coin flip here because the tie can be broken by the conference tiebreaker. |
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Rrrrrrrams
Joined: 01 Oct 2011
Posts: 1186
Location: Germany
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| Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 2:28 pm Post subject: |
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you sure about some of the sos stats?
i guess its
7.detroit
8.arizona.
and
10.browns
11.bills
12.dolphins
and
18.vikings
19.cowboys
20.redskins
_________________
i hate the 49ers. i do. |
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stallyns
Joined: 02 Dec 2004
Posts: 23583
Location: 414
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| Posted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 8:25 am Post subject: |
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| Rrrrrrrams wrote: | you sure about some of the sos stats?
i guess its
7.detroit
8.arizona.
and
10.browns
11.bills
12.dolphins
and
18.vikings
19.cowboys
20.redskins |
I'm going to assume yours are based on opponents played to date? Woz has been basing his on every opponent, not just those already played.
**EDIT** - Also check back to the last page Woz put up a formula to calculate the adjustment for ties
_________________
Colts draft picks:
#59 - OL Jack Mewhort Ohio ST
#90 - WR Donte Moncrief Ole Miss
#166 - OLB Johnathan Newsome Ball ST
#203 - ILB Andrew Jackson Western Kentucky
#232 - OT Ulrick John Georgia ST |
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Rrrrrrrams
Joined: 01 Oct 2011
Posts: 1186
Location: Germany
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| Posted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 8:10 pm Post subject: |
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ah, ok.
thats nice.
in that case i don't get this complete off play-off standing.
patriots and broncos at 30 and 29 is impossible.
or seattle, chicago and giants at 22-24.
but i dig the work for the first 20 picks.
_________________
i hate the 49ers. i do. |
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Woz
Joined: 10 Mar 2006
Posts: 19386
Location: in a land where the furniture folds to a much smaller size
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| Posted: Sun Dec 16, 2012 12:21 am Post subject: |
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| Rrrrrrrams wrote: | ah, ok.
thats nice.
in that case i don't get this complete off play-off standing.
patriots and broncos at 30 and 29 is impossible.
or seattle, chicago and giants at 22-24.
but i dig the work for the first 20 picks. |
The playoff section just separates those teams from the rest of the field. Inside of the subsection, they are just organized by record and SOS just like the first twenty teams. Once the playoffs roll, they'll be categorized based on how they do. |
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Nobody
Joined: 02 Aug 2012
Posts: 2012
Location: Final Four and counting!
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| Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 7:59 pm Post subject: |
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http://www.thestarpress.com/article/BG/20121215/SPORTS03/212160342/Colts-notebook-GM-Ryan-Grigson-has-no-regrets-bringing-CB-Vontae-Davis?nclick_check=1
"To land Davis, Grigson sent the Dolphins a 2013 second-round draft pick along with a conditional sixth-rounder. The Colts regain the latter because Davis won't meet the play-time conditions."
"Along with recouping the conditional '13 sixth-round pick, Grigson said the Colts also regain the conditional seventh-rounder they sent to Philadelphia for linebackers Moise Fokou and Greg Lloyd. Lloyd didn't make the roster while Fokou, like Davis, won't meet the play-time benchmark."
We will be keeping the 6th rounder from the Vontae Davis trade and the 7th rounder from the Fokou/Lloyd trade, as Davis and Fokou have been injured and Lloyd was cut. For any of you making 7 rounders.
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stallyns
Joined: 02 Dec 2004
Posts: 23583
Location: 414
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| Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 9:02 pm Post subject: |
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| Nobody wrote: | http://www.thestarpress.com/article/BG/20121215/SPORTS03/212160342/Colts-notebook-GM-Ryan-Grigson-has-no-regrets-bringing-CB-Vontae-Davis?nclick_check=1
"To land Davis, Grigson sent the Dolphins a 2013 second-round draft pick along with a conditional sixth-rounder. The Colts regain the latter because Davis won't meet the play-time conditions."
"Along with recouping the conditional '13 sixth-round pick, Grigson said the Colts also regain the conditional seventh-rounder they sent to Philadelphia for linebackers Moise Fokou and Greg Lloyd. Lloyd didn't make the roster while Fokou, like Davis, won't meet the play-time benchmark."
We will be keeping the 6th rounder from the Vontae Davis trade and the 7th rounder from the Fokou/Lloyd trade, as Davis and Fokou have been injured and Lloyd was cut. For any of you making 7 rounders. |
sweet stealing this for the Colts forum
_________________
Colts draft picks:
#59 - OL Jack Mewhort Ohio ST
#90 - WR Donte Moncrief Ole Miss
#166 - OLB Johnathan Newsome Ball ST
#203 - ILB Andrew Jackson Western Kentucky
#232 - OT Ulrick John Georgia ST |
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Woz
Joined: 10 Mar 2006
Posts: 19386
Location: in a land where the furniture folds to a much smaller size
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| Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 1:15 am Post subject: |
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Post Week 15:
| Code: | # TEAM PCT SOS
1 KAN 0.143 0.500
2 JAC 0.143 0.540
3 OAK 0.286 0.455
4 PHI 0.286 0.513
5 DET 0.286 0.567
6 SDG 0.357 0.460
7 BUF 0.357 0.491
8 CLE 0.357 0.500
9* TEN 0.357 0.513 \___ requires a coin flip
9* CAR 0.357 0.513 /
11 ARI 0.357 0.558
12 TAM 0.429 0.493
13 MIA 0.429 0.504
14 NYJ 0.429 0.504
15 NOR 0.429 0.520
16 STL 0.464 0.536
17 PIT 0.500 0.469
18 DAL 0.571 0.513
19 CHI 0.571 0.518
20 NYG 0.571 0.529
--------------------------------
21 CIN 0.571 0.446
22 WAS 0.571 0.502 -> traded to STL
23 MIN 0.571 0.522
24 IND 0.643 0.455
25 BAL 0.643 0.500
26 SEA 0.643 0.509
27* GRB 0.714 0.504 \___ requires a coin flip
27* NWE 0.714 0.504 /
29 SFO 0.750 0.500
30 DEN 0.786 0.455
31 ATL 0.857 0.415
32 HOU 0.857 0.487 |
NOTES:
1. Strength of schedule is complete schedule, not played to date.
2. The TEN/CAR pick at #9 and GRB/NWE pick at #27 cannot be broken by any tiebreaker (neither pair played each other, and they are in opposite conferences). As such, they require a coin flip to determine their position.
3. MIA/NYJ pick at #13 and #14 can be broken. The Dolphins and Jets split in the regular season, but the Jets have a better division record right now (2-3 v. 1-3).
4. WAS wins the three-way tiebreaker for NFC East division based on head-to-head wins between the three teams (WAS: 2-1, NYG: 2-2, DAL: 1-2).
5. For the 2nd NFC Wild Card, we first need to simplify the teams in the divisions
a) NFC East: DAL and NYG split. Second tiebreaker is division record, where DAL is 3-2 versus NYG being 2-3 = DAL is #2 in the East
b) NFC North: CHI and MIN split. Second tiebreaker is division record, where MIN is 3-2 versus CHI being 2-3 = MIN is #2 in the East
c) DAL v. MIN: DAL and MIN did not play. Second tiebreaker is conference record, where MIN is 6-5 versus DAL being 5-5 = MIN is 2nd Wild Card
6. Order in playoffs is solely based on record and SOS. When they actually play, I will arrange them appropriately. |
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KC_Guy
Joined: 07 Jan 2008
Posts: 7095
Location: Brussels, Belgium
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| Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 4:36 pm Post subject: |
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Theoretical draft position windows posted here.
Does anyone have additional info on the conditional/undetermined trades (see bottom of OP)?? |
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stallyns
Joined: 02 Dec 2004
Posts: 23583
Location: 414
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| Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 5:45 pm Post subject: |
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| KC_Guy wrote: | Theoretical draft position windows posted here.
Does anyone have additional info on the conditional/undetermined trades (see bottom of OP)?? |
most conditional picks are either based on
1) making the roster
2) playing time
3) performance
I think most of the time it is too early to know most unless a GM like Grigson is asked a direct question about it especially from a reporter who has inside knowledge and already knows the answer but wants it on record
_________________
Colts draft picks:
#59 - OL Jack Mewhort Ohio ST
#90 - WR Donte Moncrief Ole Miss
#166 - OLB Johnathan Newsome Ball ST
#203 - ILB Andrew Jackson Western Kentucky
#232 - OT Ulrick John Georgia ST |
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Woz
Joined: 10 Mar 2006
Posts: 19386
Location: in a land where the furniture folds to a much smaller size
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| Posted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 4:03 pm Post subject: |
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Post Week 16 (sorry for the late post):
| Code: | # TEAM PCT SOS
1 KAN 0.133 0.508
2 JAC 0.133 0.538
3 OAK 0.267 0.467
4 PHI 0.267 0.508
5 DET 0.267 0.571
6 BUF 0.333 0.488
7 CLE 0.333 0.500
8 TEN 0.333 0.513
9 ARI 0.333 0.563
10 SDG 0.400 0.458
11 NYJ 0.400 0.504
12 TAM 0.400 0.506
13 CAR 0.400 0.517
14 PIT 0.467 0.467
15 MIA 0.467 0.496
16 NOR 0.467 0.519
17 STL 0.500 0.533
18 DAL 0.533 0.517
19 NYG 0.533 0.527
20 CHI 0.600 0.517
--------------------------------
21 CIN 0.600 0.442
22 WAS 0.600 0.498 -> traded to STL
23 MIN 0.600 0.521
24 IND 0.667 0.446
25 BAL 0.667 0.492
26 SEA 0.667 0.508
27 SFO 0.700 0.508
28 NWE 0.733 0.500
29 GRB 0.733 0.504
30 DEN 0.800 0.458
31 HOU 0.800 0.492
32 ATL 0.867 0.417 |
NOTES:
1. Strength of schedule is complete schedule, not played to date.
2. Order in playoffs is solely based on record and SOS. When they actually play, I will arrange them appropriately.
3. AFC Playoff teams are now completely set.
4. Four of the NFC Playoff teams are now set. The two remaining spots are open for: WAS, MIN, DAL, CHI, and NYG.
5. If Kansas City loses, they'll have the #1 overall pick. At worst, they'll have #2 overall if they win and Jacksonville loses. |
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Woz
Joined: 10 Mar 2006
Posts: 19386
Location: in a land where the furniture folds to a much smaller size
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| Posted: Mon Dec 31, 2012 12:56 am Post subject: |
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Post Regular Season:
| Code: | # TEAM PCT SOS
1 KAN 0.125 0.516
2 JAC 0.125 0.539
3 OAK 0.250 0.469
4 PHI 0.250 0.508
5 DET 0.250 0.566
6 CLE 0.313 0.508
7 ARI 0.313 0.559
8 BUF 0.375 0.480
9 NYJ 0.375 0.512
10 TEN 0.375 0.512
11 SDG 0.438 0.457
12 MIA 0.438 0.500
13 TAM 0.438 0.502
14 CAR 0.438 0.516
15 NOR 0.438 0.521
16 STL 0.469 0.539
17 PIT 0.500 0.465
18 DAL 0.500 0.523
19 NYG 0.563 0.521
20 CHI 0.625 0.512
-------------------------------
21 CIN 0.625 0.438
22 WAS 0.625 0.494 -> traded to STL
23 BAL 0.625 0.496
24 MIN 0.625 0.520
25 IND 0.688 0.441
26 SEA 0.688 0.504
27 GRB 0.688 0.508
28 SFO 0.719 0.504
29 HOU 0.750 0.496
30 NWE 0.750 0.496
31 ATL 0.813 0.422
32 DEN 0.813 0.457 |
NOTES:
1. Top 20 picks are now set.
2. The New York Jets are the 8th overall ahead of the Tennessee Titans because of the Titans head-to-head win (record and SOS is the same).
3. Order right now of the playoff teams is solely based on record and SOS. I'll update the numbers once they play.
4. In the event that the Texans and Patriots lose in the Divisional Round, the Texans would pick before New England due to the Patriots win over Houston.
Kansas City, you are now on the clock. |
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