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Woz


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 26, 2012 11:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Post Week 13.

NFC Wildcard: Again, three way draw between Minnesota, Seattle, and Tampa Bay. Minnesota is still eliminated because of Seattle and Tampa having beat them, and Seattle still owns a better conference record (5-4 vs. 4-4).

AFC Wildcard: Pittsburgh gets in ahead of Cincinnati due to head-to-head win in week 7. This is tenuous though, as the Bengals have a return date in week 16 (both have week division records: 1-2 for the Steelers, and 1-3 for the Bengals).

Incidentally, even though Minnesota was beaten by Tampa, the Bucs have a higher draft pick because the first tiebreaker for the draft order is strength of schedule. If those were tied, then the Vikings would pick first because of their loss to Tampa.

Code:
 #    TEAM    PCT      SOS
 1    KAN    0.091    0.506
 2    JAC    0.182    0.551
 3    OAK    0.273    0.460
 4    CLE    0.273    0.506
 5    PHI    0.273    0.511
 6    CAR    0.273    0.523
 7    SDG    0.364    0.455
 8    BUF    0.364    0.477
 9    NYJ    0.364    0.511
10    TEN    0.364    0.534
11    ARI    0.364    0.551
12    DET    0.364    0.574
13    STL    0.409    0.534
14    MIA    0.455    0.494
15    WAS    0.455    0.503 -> traded to STL
16    NOR    0.455    0.509
17    DAL    0.455    0.523
18    CIN    0.545    0.449
19    TAM    0.545    0.469
20    MIN    0.545    0.540
-------------------------------
21    PIT    0.545    0.455      PLAYOFF TEAMS
22    SEA    0.545    0.500
23    IND    0.636    0.466
24    NYG    0.636    0.509
25    GRB    0.636    0.534
26    DEN    0.727    0.466
27    CHI    0.727    0.500
28    NWE    0.727    0.506
29    SFO    0.773    0.494
30    BAL    0.818    0.477
31    ATL    0.909    0.409
32    HOU    0.909    0.506
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The Gnat


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 28, 2012 9:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=ycn-11011782

Vikings McNabb trade does not trip the conditional 6th round pick for this year, so the Vikings will not lose their 6th round pick.
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Woz


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 11:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Gnat wrote:
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=ycn-11011782

Vikings McNabb trade does not trip the conditional 6th round pick for this year, so the Vikings will not lose their 6th round pick.


*grumbles something fierce*
You couldn't have played a few more snaps, McNabb? Really?!

Anyway, post week 13 draft order:
Code:
#    TEAM     PCT      SOS
 1    KAN    0.167    0.505
 2    JAC    0.167    0.552
 3    OAK    0.250    0.464
 4    PHI    0.250    0.510
 5    CAR    0.250    0.516
 6    SDG    0.333    0.464
 7    CLE    0.333    0.516
 8    TEN    0.333    0.536
 9    ARI    0.333    0.552
10    DET    0.333    0.563
11    BUF    0.417    0.490
12    NOR    0.417    0.503
13    MIA    0.417    0.510
14    NYJ    0.417    0.516
15    STL    0.458    0.526
16    TAM    0.500    0.466
17    WAS    0.500    0.497 -> traded to STL
18    DAL    0.500    0.516
19    MIN    0.500    0.531
20    CIN    0.583    0.453
---------------------------
21    PIT    0.583    0.464
22    SEA    0.583    0.495
23    NYG    0.583    0.513
24    IND    0.667    0.469
25    CHI    0.667    0.495
26    GRB    0.667    0.510
27    SFO    0.708    0.495
28    DEN    0.750    0.469
29    BAL    0.750    0.500
30    NWE    0.750    0.510
31    ATL    0.917    0.396
32    HOU    0.917    0.500


Pittsburgh gets into the playoffs instead Cincinnati because of head-to-head win.
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Woz


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 10, 2012 11:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

After Week 14:

Code:
 #    TEAM    PCT      SOS
 1    KAN    0.154    0.500
 2    JAC    0.154    0.538
 3    OAK    0.231    0.457
 4    PHI    0.308    0.510
 5    CAR    0.308    0.510
 6    TEN    0.308    0.529
 7    ARI    0.308    0.563
 8    DET    0.308    0.563
 9    SDG    0.385    0.452
10    BUF    0.385    0.495
11    MIA    0.385    0.510
12    CLE    0.385    0.510
13    NOR    0.385    0.512
14    TAM    0.462    0.478
15    NYJ    0.462    0.510
16    STL    0.500    0.529
17    CIN    0.538    0.457
18    WAS    0.538    0.507 -> traded to STL
19    DAL    0.538    0.519
20    MIN    0.538    0.524
---------------------------
21    PIT    0.538    0.471
22    SEA    0.615    0.505
23    CHI    0.615    0.505
24    NYG    0.615    0.522
25    IND    0.692    0.457
26    BAL    0.692    0.505
27    GRB    0.692    0.505
28    SFO    0.731    0.500
29    DEN    0.769    0.457
30    NWE    0.769    0.505
31    ATL    0.846    0.404
32    HOU    0.846    0.495


Notes:
Arrow Pittsburgh still gets in ahead of Cincinnati because of head-to-head win
Arrow Right now, Philadelphia would pick 4th ahead of Carolina. They are tied on record and strength of schedule, so it goes to conference tiebreaker. Since Carolina beat Philadelphia in week 12, the Eagles pick first. It does not go to a coin flip here because the tie can be broken by the conference tiebreaker.
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Rrrrrrrams


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 1:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

you sure about some of the sos stats?

i guess its

7.detroit
8.arizona.

and

10.browns
11.bills
12.dolphins

and

18.vikings
19.cowboys
20.redskins
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stallyns


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 7:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rrrrrrrams wrote:
you sure about some of the sos stats?

i guess its

7.detroit
8.arizona.

and

10.browns
11.bills
12.dolphins

and

18.vikings
19.cowboys
20.redskins
I'm going to assume yours are based on opponents played to date? Woz has been basing his on every opponent, not just those already played.

**EDIT** - Also check back to the last page Woz put up a formula to calculate the adjustment for ties
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Rrrrrrrams


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 7:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ah, ok.
thats nice.

in that case i don't get this complete off play-off standing.
patriots and broncos at 30 and 29 is impossible.
or seattle, chicago and giants at 22-24.

but i dig the work for the first 20 picks.
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Woz


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PostPosted: Sat Dec 15, 2012 11:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rrrrrrrams wrote:
ah, ok.
thats nice.

in that case i don't get this complete off play-off standing.
patriots and broncos at 30 and 29 is impossible.
or seattle, chicago and giants at 22-24.

but i dig the work for the first 20 picks.


The playoff section just separates those teams from the rest of the field. Inside of the subsection, they are just organized by record and SOS just like the first twenty teams. Once the playoffs roll, they'll be categorized based on how they do.
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Nobody


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 6:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.thestarpress.com/article/BG/20121215/SPORTS03/212160342/Colts-notebook-GM-Ryan-Grigson-has-no-regrets-bringing-CB-Vontae-Davis?nclick_check=1

"To land Davis, Grigson sent the Dolphins a 2013 second-round draft pick along with a conditional sixth-rounder. The Colts regain the latter because Davis won't meet the play-time conditions."

"Along with recouping the conditional '13 sixth-round pick, Grigson said the Colts also regain the conditional seventh-rounder they sent to Philadelphia for linebackers Moise Fokou and Greg Lloyd. Lloyd didn't make the roster while Fokou, like Davis, won't meet the play-time benchmark."

We will be keeping the 6th rounder from the Vontae Davis trade and the 7th rounder from the Fokou/Lloyd trade, as Davis and Fokou have been injured and Lloyd was cut. For any of you making 7 rounders.
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stallyns


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 8:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nobody wrote:
http://www.thestarpress.com/article/BG/20121215/SPORTS03/212160342/Colts-notebook-GM-Ryan-Grigson-has-no-regrets-bringing-CB-Vontae-Davis?nclick_check=1

"To land Davis, Grigson sent the Dolphins a 2013 second-round draft pick along with a conditional sixth-rounder. The Colts regain the latter because Davis won't meet the play-time conditions."

"Along with recouping the conditional '13 sixth-round pick, Grigson said the Colts also regain the conditional seventh-rounder they sent to Philadelphia for linebackers Moise Fokou and Greg Lloyd. Lloyd didn't make the roster while Fokou, like Davis, won't meet the play-time benchmark."

We will be keeping the 6th rounder from the Vontae Davis trade and the 7th rounder from the Fokou/Lloyd trade, as Davis and Fokou have been injured and Lloyd was cut. For any of you making 7 rounders.
sweet stealing this for the Colts forum
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Woz


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 12:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Post Week 15:

Code:
 #    TEAM    PCT      SOS
 1    KAN    0.143    0.500
 2    JAC    0.143    0.540
 3    OAK    0.286    0.455
 4    PHI    0.286    0.513
 5    DET    0.286    0.567
 6    SDG    0.357    0.460
 7    BUF    0.357    0.491
 8    CLE    0.357    0.500
 9*   TEN    0.357    0.513 \___ requires a coin flip
 9*   CAR    0.357    0.513 /
11    ARI    0.357    0.558
12    TAM    0.429    0.493
13    MIA    0.429    0.504
14    NYJ    0.429    0.504
15    NOR    0.429    0.520
16    STL    0.464    0.536
17    PIT    0.500    0.469
18    DAL    0.571    0.513
19    CHI    0.571    0.518
20    NYG    0.571    0.529
--------------------------------
21    CIN    0.571    0.446
22    WAS    0.571    0.502 -> traded to STL
23    MIN    0.571    0.522
24    IND    0.643    0.455
25    BAL    0.643    0.500
26    SEA    0.643    0.509
27*   GRB    0.714    0.504 \___ requires a coin flip
27*   NWE    0.714    0.504 /
29    SFO    0.750    0.500
30    DEN    0.786    0.455
31    ATL    0.857    0.415
32    HOU    0.857    0.487



NOTES:
1. Strength of schedule is complete schedule, not played to date.
2. The TEN/CAR pick at #9 and GRB/NWE pick at #27 cannot be broken by any tiebreaker (neither pair played each other, and they are in opposite conferences). As such, they require a coin flip to determine their position.
3. MIA/NYJ pick at #13 and #14 can be broken. The Dolphins and Jets split in the regular season, but the Jets have a better division record right now (2-3 v. 1-3).
4. WAS wins the three-way tiebreaker for NFC East division based on head-to-head wins between the three teams (WAS: 2-1, NYG: 2-2, DAL: 1-2).
5. For the 2nd NFC Wild Card, we first need to simplify the teams in the divisions
a) NFC East: DAL and NYG split. Second tiebreaker is division record, where DAL is 3-2 versus NYG being 2-3 = DAL is #2 in the East
b) NFC North: CHI and MIN split. Second tiebreaker is division record, where MIN is 3-2 versus CHI being 2-3 = MIN is #2 in the East
c) DAL v. MIN: DAL and MIN did not play. Second tiebreaker is conference record, where MIN is 6-5 versus DAL being 5-5 = MIN is 2nd Wild Card
6. Order in playoffs is solely based on record and SOS. When they actually play, I will arrange them appropriately.
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KC_Guy


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 3:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Theoretical draft position windows posted here.

Does anyone have additional info on the conditional/undetermined trades (see bottom of OP)??
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stallyns


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 18, 2012 4:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

KC_Guy wrote:
Theoretical draft position windows posted here.

Does anyone have additional info on the conditional/undetermined trades (see bottom of OP)??
most conditional picks are either based on
1) making the roster
2) playing time
3) performance

I think most of the time it is too early to know most unless a GM like Grigson is asked a direct question about it especially from a reporter who has inside knowledge and already knows the answer but wants it on record
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Woz


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PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 3:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Post Week 16 (sorry for the late post):

Code:
#    TEAM     PCT      SOS
 1    KAN    0.133    0.508
 2    JAC    0.133    0.538
 3    OAK    0.267    0.467
 4    PHI    0.267    0.508
 5    DET    0.267    0.571
 6    BUF    0.333    0.488
 7    CLE    0.333    0.500
 8    TEN    0.333    0.513
 9    ARI    0.333    0.563
10    SDG    0.400    0.458
11    NYJ    0.400    0.504
12    TAM    0.400    0.506
13    CAR    0.400    0.517
14    PIT    0.467    0.467
15    MIA    0.467    0.496
16    NOR    0.467    0.519
17    STL    0.500    0.533
18    DAL    0.533    0.517
19    NYG    0.533    0.527
20    CHI    0.600    0.517
--------------------------------
21    CIN    0.600    0.442
22    WAS    0.600    0.498 -> traded to STL
23    MIN    0.600    0.521
24    IND    0.667    0.446
25    BAL    0.667    0.492
26    SEA    0.667    0.508
27    SFO    0.700    0.508
28    NWE    0.733    0.500
29    GRB    0.733    0.504
30    DEN    0.800    0.458
31    HOU    0.800    0.492
32    ATL    0.867    0.417


NOTES:
1. Strength of schedule is complete schedule, not played to date.
2. Order in playoffs is solely based on record and SOS. When they actually play, I will arrange them appropriately.
3. AFC Playoff teams are now completely set.
4. Four of the NFC Playoff teams are now set. The two remaining spots are open for: WAS, MIN, DAL, CHI, and NYG.
5. If Kansas City loses, they'll have the #1 overall pick. At worst, they'll have #2 overall if they win and Jacksonville loses.
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Woz


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 30, 2012 11:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Post Regular Season:

Code:
#    TEAM     PCT      SOS
 1    KAN    0.125    0.516
 2    JAC    0.125    0.539
 3    OAK    0.250    0.469
 4    PHI    0.250    0.508
 5    DET    0.250    0.566
 6    CLE    0.313    0.508
 7    ARI    0.313    0.559
 8    BUF    0.375    0.480
 9    NYJ    0.375    0.512
10    TEN    0.375    0.512
11    SDG    0.438    0.457
12    MIA    0.438    0.500
13    TAM    0.438    0.502
14    CAR    0.438    0.516
15    NOR    0.438    0.521
16    STL    0.469    0.539
17    PIT    0.500    0.465
18    DAL    0.500    0.523
19    NYG    0.563    0.521
20    CHI    0.625    0.512
-------------------------------
21    CIN    0.625    0.438
22    WAS    0.625    0.494 -> traded to STL
23    BAL    0.625    0.496
24    MIN    0.625    0.520
25    IND    0.688    0.441
26    SEA    0.688    0.504
27    GRB    0.688    0.508
28    SFO    0.719    0.504
29    HOU    0.750    0.496
30    NWE    0.750    0.496
31    ATL    0.813    0.422
32    DEN    0.813    0.457


NOTES:
1. Top 20 picks are now set.
2. The New York Jets are the 8th overall ahead of the Tennessee Titans because of the Titans head-to-head win (record and SOS is the same).
3. Order right now of the playoff teams is solely based on record and SOS. I'll update the numbers once they play.
4. In the event that the Texans and Patriots lose in the Divisional Round, the Texans would pick before New England due to the Patriots win over Houston.

Kansas City, you are now on the clock.
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