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mistakebytehlak
Joined: 20 Nov 2005
Posts: 38704
Location: Brooklyn, NY
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 Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 8:27 am Post subject: |
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| TeHDruiD wrote: | 
As of right now, we'd be in a coin flip with the Saints for #12/#13. If we win next week and nothing else considered, we'd be picking right behind the Rams at #15 because they have a tie instead of a full loss. I'll take some time either tonight or tomorrow to factor in ties to get this more accurate. It hasn't happened since I started this so I never coded it in, but I'll get that taken care of. I think with a tie factor in, we are slightly behind the Saints (they faced the 49ers) so we are most likely #12 by a very small %
Other nuggets
#1: We're tied for the 9th strongest schedule so far this year
#2: If we win out, we leave ourselves a shot at the playoffs
We'll possibly be facing a RG3-less team on Sunday. The Redskins offense possess a lot of speed and a very good zone blocking scheme for Alfred Morris to run behind, but if RG3 can't go, we can really focus on the offense as a whole and won't be forced into having to contain RG3 which is huge |
you should just have to sort on # of wins and then .SOS and the tie should be factored in
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candyman93
Joined: 02 Dec 2009
Posts: 34842
Location: Adopt a Brownie 2012: TJ Ward
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| Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 4:06 pm Post subject: |
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Just thinking out loud. I wonder if Heckertt will take the same aggressive draft approach with the defense that he did with the offense last year? First three picks for defense and the rest goes to offense?
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nugpimpen
Joined: 18 Feb 2006
Posts: 12156
Location: Cleveland, Ohio
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| Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 4:11 pm Post subject: |
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| candyman93 wrote: | | Just thinking out loud. I wonder if Heckertt will take the same aggressive draft approach with the defense that he did with the offense last year? First three picks for defense and the rest goes to offense? |
I kind of hope so.
At this point, what is a dire need on offense?? TE? OG? FB? I mean, I honestly feel good about most of our offensive spots. Not to mention all 3 of those could be EASY FA pick ups.
DE, CB, FS and LB are bigger needs than any of those IMO.
If I had to choose 1 to wait another year to upgrade, it would probably be LB. Though Rucker is doing well on the line.
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LETSGOBROWNIES
Joined: 06 Feb 2006
Posts: 6845
Location: CINCINNATI
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| Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 4:12 pm Post subject: |
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| candyman93 wrote: | | Just thinking out loud. I wonder if Heckertt will take the same aggressive draft approach with the defense that he did with the offense last year? First three picks for defense and the rest goes to offense? |
I hope so.
Can't see too many holes on offense, TE and G maybe, and I don't think either of those positions warrant a high selection.
I'd love to see a trade down. If they can come away from this draft with a quality player at each level of the defense, they'll be in great shape.
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DawgSoldier
Joined: 30 Oct 2007
Posts: 5947
Location: Medina OH
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| Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 4:56 pm Post subject: |
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| nugpimpen wrote: | | candyman93 wrote: | | Just thinking out loud. I wonder if Heckertt will take the same aggressive draft approach with the defense that he did with the offense last year? First three picks for defense and the rest goes to offense? |
I kind of hope so.
At this point, what is a dire need on offense?? TE? OG? FB? I mean, I honestly feel good about most of our offensive spots. Not to mention all 3 of those could be EASY FA pick ups.
DE, CB, FS and LB are bigger needs than any of those IMO.
If I had to choose 1 to wait another year to upgrade, it would probably be LB. Though Rucker is doing well on the line. |
My thoughts exactly. +1
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FEARtheELF
Joined: 26 Jan 2008
Posts: 5331
Location: THE Ohio State University
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| Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 6:06 pm Post subject: |
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My big off season wish is starting to become draft defense and add a corner and FS in round 1 and 3, then DE in 4. Offensively if we can sign Danny Amendola it would be so huge. Weeden needs his slot guy. Then in 2014 if we can land Austin Seferian-Jenkins we can be scary good.
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DawgSoldier
Joined: 30 Oct 2007
Posts: 5947
Location: Medina OH
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| Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 6:15 pm Post subject: |
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| FEARtheELF wrote: | | My big off season wish is starting to become draft defense and add a corner and FS in round 1 and 3, then DE in 4. Offensively if we can sign Danny Amendola it would be so huge. Weeden needs his slot guy. Then in 2014 if we can land Austin Seferian-Jenkins we can be scary good. |
See I differ slightly but see where your coming from. I want FA to have at least two signings. A OG/OT and ether a FS or CB that can start.
WR: I think the 4 WR's under contract can get the job done Gordon Little Benjamin and Cooper. I think it would be easier to resign MoMass then bring in Amendola. But that s more of a preference I guess.
Then the 1st 3 picks go to the D like you said hitting all 3 levels of the D.
As for Jenkins TE issue there is enough depth to hit that with a 5th round pick IMO.
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FEARtheELF
Joined: 26 Jan 2008
Posts: 5331
Location: THE Ohio State University
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| Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 6:28 pm Post subject: |
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| DawgSoldier wrote: |
See I differ slightly but see where your coming from. I want FA to have at least two signings. A OG/OT and ether a FS or CB that can start.
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Dont get me wrong I would love to sign a FS or G too but we have seemed to do away with the FA idea. Delmas, Landry, or Kerry Rhodes would be nice.
| DawgSoldier wrote: |
As for Jenkins TE issue there is enough depth to hit that with a 5th round pick IMO. |
Jenkins is a Gronkowski, Graham, Witten, Gates type talent. He is a dominating athlete, receiver, and blocker. He would take our offense to the next level
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DawgSoldier
Joined: 30 Oct 2007
Posts: 5947
Location: Medina OH
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| Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 6:32 pm Post subject: |
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| FEARtheELF wrote: | | DawgSoldier wrote: |
See I differ slightly but see where your coming from. I want FA to have at least two signings. A OG/OT and ether a FS or CB that can start.
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1 Dont get me wrong I would love to sign a FS or G too but we have semed to do away with the FA idea. Delmas, Landry, or Kerry Rhodes would be nice.
| DawgSoldier wrote: |
As for Jenkins TE issue there is enough depth to hit that with a 5th round pick IMO. |
2 Jenkins is a Gronkowski, Graham, Witten, Gates type talent. He is a dominating athlete, receiver, and blocker. He would take our offense to the next level |
1 I think Haslam and the end of the year resurgence may make them a little more achievable.
2 Sign Watson 1 more year and draft a utility TE guy. In 2014 Watson retires and then you get your uber TE and still have great depth too. 
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pmk
Joined: 21 Jun 2007
Posts: 11658
Location: NYC
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| Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 7:18 pm Post subject: |
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| FEARtheELF wrote: | | My big off season wish is starting to become draft defense and add a corner and FS in round 1 and 3, then DE in 4. Offensively if we can sign Danny Amendola it would be so huge. Weeden needs his slot guy. Then in 2014 if we can land Austin Seferian-Jenkins we can be scary good. |
Little already looks impressive out of the slot when he can hold onto the damn ball. What they need at WR is a better MoMass. Someone who can play on the outside during 3rd and long and you know is always going to run a route past the marker and make the catch.
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DawgSoldier
Joined: 30 Oct 2007
Posts: 5947
Location: Medina OH
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| Posted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 4:33 pm Post subject: |
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| TeHDruiD wrote: |
As of right now, we'd be in a coin flip with the Saints for #12/#13. If we win next week and nothing else considered, we'd be picking right behind the Rams at #15 because they have a tie instead of a full loss. I'll take some time either tonight or tomorrow to factor in ties to get this more accurate. It hasn't happened since I started this so I never coded it in, but I'll get that taken care of. I think with a tie factor in, we are slightly behind the Saints (they faced the 49ers) so we are most likely #12 by a very small %
Other nuggets
#1: We're tied for the 9th strongest schedule so far this year
#2: If we win out, we leave ourselves a shot at the playoffs
We'll possibly be facing a RG3-less team on Sunday. The Redskins offense possess a lot of speed and a very good zone blocking scheme for Alfred Morris to run behind, but if RG3 can't go, we can really focus on the offense as a whole and won't be forced into having to contain RG3 which is huge |
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000109680/article/2013-nfl-draft-order
If the season ended today, this is a look at the order for the first round of the 2013 NFL Draft*.
No. 1 overall draft picks
Take a look back at the No. 1 picks in the NFL draft.
1. Kansas City Chiefs (2-11)
2. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11)
3. Oakland Raiders (3-10)
4. Philadelphia Eagles (4-9)
5. Carolina Panthers (4-9)
6. Tennessee Titans (4-9)
7. Detroit Lions (4-9)
8. Arizona Cardinals (4-9)
9. San Diego Chargers (5-
10. Cleveland Browns (5-
11. Buffalo Bills (5-
12. Miami Dolphins (5-
13. New Orleans Saints (5-
14. New York Jets (6-7)
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7)
16. St. Louis Rams (6-6-1)
17. Cincinnati Bengals (7-6)
18. Minnesota Vikings (7-6)
19. Dallas Cowboys (7-6)
20. St. Louis Rams (from Washington Redskins, 7-6)
21. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6)
22. Seattle Seahawks (8-5)
23. New York Giants (8-5)
24. Chicago Bears (8-5)
25. Indianapolis Colts (9-4)
26. Green Bay Packers (9-4)
27. Baltimore Ravens (9-4)
28. San Francisco 49ers (9-3-1)
29. Denver Broncos (10-3)
30. New England Patriots (10-3)
31. Houston Texans (11-2)
32. Atlanta Falcons (11-2)
* Strength of schedule is used to determine order between teams with matching win-loss records.
umm so who is wrong? Druids math looks right but....this is an NFL list 
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Estonianzulu
Joined: 11 Jan 2007
Posts: 19768
Location: Middle of Nowhere VA
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| Posted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 4:41 pm Post subject: |
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It might have to do with how the SoS is calculated
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TeHDruiD
Joined: 01 Jan 2010
Posts: 6738
Location: Canton, OH
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| Posted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 4:59 pm Post subject: |
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| DawgSoldier wrote: | If the season ended today, this is a look at the order for the first round of the 2013 NFL Draft*.
umm so who is wrong? Druids math looks right but....this is an NFL list |
You answered your own question 
My program calculates games that haven't been played because at the end of the year that's all that matters. For those calculations, they're only taking into account the games that have been played. For a week to week basis it's nice, but I'm only worried about the end result
Example: We have 3 games left
Redskins: 7-6
Broncos: 10-3
Steelers: 7-6
So that's 24 uncounted for wins that are factored into my program that aren't factored into the "if the season ended on week 14". See what I mean? Next year I plan to provide both weekly projections and end of the year projections, but I didn't get around to it this year, been extremely busy |
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Estonianzulu
Joined: 11 Jan 2007
Posts: 19768
Location: Middle of Nowhere VA
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| Posted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 6:17 pm Post subject: |
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| TeHDruiD wrote: | | DawgSoldier wrote: | If the season ended today, this is a look at the order for the first round of the 2013 NFL Draft*.
umm so who is wrong? Druids math looks right but....this is an NFL list |
You answered your own question
My program calculates games that haven't been played because at the end of the year that's all that matters. For those calculations, they're only taking into account the games that have been played. For a week to week basis it's nice, but I'm only worried about the end result
Example: We have 3 games left
Redskins: 7-6
Broncos: 10-3
Steelers: 7-6
So that's 24 uncounted for wins that are factored into my program that aren't factored into the "if the season ended on week 14". See what I mean? Next year I plan to provide both weekly projections and end of the year projections, but I didn't get around to it this year, been extremely busy |
Honestly the "if the season ended today" lists are kind of meaningless. Your's is superior.
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DawgSoldier
Joined: 30 Oct 2007
Posts: 5947
Location: Medina OH
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| Posted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 6:35 pm Post subject: |
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| TeHDruiD wrote: | | DawgSoldier wrote: | If the season ended today, this is a look at the order for the first round of the 2013 NFL Draft*.
umm so who is wrong? Druids math looks right but....this is an NFL list |
You answered your own question
My program calculates games that haven't been played because at the end of the year that's all that matters. For those calculations, they're only taking into account the games that have been played. For a week to week basis it's nice, but I'm only worried about the end result
Example: We have 3 games left
Redskins: 7-6
Broncos: 10-3
Steelers: 7-6
So that's 24 uncounted for wins that are factored into my program that aren't factored into the "if the season ended on week 14". See what I mean? Next year I plan to provide both weekly projections and end of the year projections, but I didn't get around to it this year, been extremely busy |
ahh. Hey wasn't calling you out Druid. I just was wondering where the difference was/what it was.
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The Dawgpounds new three headed monster!
Adopt a Brown: QB Brandon Weeden
247/433 57% 2820yds 6.5avg 13 TD 15 Int |
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