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big_palooka


Joined: 30 Mar 2006
Posts: 22677
Location: ATL
PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 10:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Silver&Black88 wrote:
big_palooka wrote:
I'm a Palmer supporter, but I agree with this. Palmer isn't going to be on this team in 3 years. His salary (I admittedly don't know his cap numbers for waiving him/keeping him, etc.) serves no purpose to the team that is not in position to compete right now.

Honestly, look at where the Raiders are at right now w/ the draft:

Chiefs 2-10
Jaguars 2-10
Panthers 3-9
Eagles 3-9
Raiders 3-9

The Raiders have the Panthers and Chiefs still to play. They are assured a top 5 pick IMO.

This brings the question. A bad team, rebuilding, should they draft a QB (the most important position on the field) to build around?

If not, can they find a cheaper alternative than Palmer? Answer, yes. And IMO, Moore is the best bet.

My preference, if Palmer doesn't fit into a long term plan, don't pay him expecting short term results. I personally like Moore a lot. He's a competitor and could be a stop gap while we wait for a better class of QBs and (hopefully) build up a talented roster.


I've always been a big Moore fan too. I thought he was the guy in Carolina but they went Newton. He's one of the few people I'd be alright with leaving Palmer for. IF he'd take a smaller salary than the difference between keeping Palmer and releasing him. Only problem is he'd be facing the same problems Palmer is. And the only thing he has on Palmer is better mobility. Just about everywhere else, I'd take Palmer.

Still, Moore lost out to Tannehil in TC. I realize they probably preferred giving their Franchise QB a shot since there wasn't a big difference in production, but that in itself implies he's about par with a raw rookie qb. And he was losing out to Garrard at first too before he got injured. A middle of the pack castoff coming off a year of no football and with back trouble.

In short, I could live with the move but I'd still probably keep Palmer if it were up to me and this was the best alternative.


Valid points.

The QB spot is an enigma for me right now. I see no future with it in Oakland. I've been on board drafting a QB since 2004 when I thought Big Ben should have been the pick (always favoring a trade down).

Since, it's been a string of QBs and the investment in one couldn't have been a worse #1 overall in a bad class.

It'd be nice to hang our hats on a QB for once since Gannon. We're the new Miami Dolphins right now still searching for that QB they haven't had since Marino.

When will the cycle end?
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Rolni


Joined: 08 Jun 2008
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 11:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

big_palooka wrote:
Silver&Black88 wrote:
big_palooka wrote:
I'm a Palmer supporter, but I agree with this. Palmer isn't going to be on this team in 3 years. His salary (I admittedly don't know his cap numbers for waiving him/keeping him, etc.) serves no purpose to the team that is not in position to compete right now.

Honestly, look at where the Raiders are at right now w/ the draft:

Chiefs 2-10
Jaguars 2-10
Panthers 3-9
Eagles 3-9
Raiders 3-9

The Raiders have the Panthers and Chiefs still to play. They are assured a top 5 pick IMO.

This brings the question. A bad team, rebuilding, should they draft a QB (the most important position on the field) to build around?

If not, can they find a cheaper alternative than Palmer? Answer, yes. And IMO, Moore is the best bet.

My preference, if Palmer doesn't fit into a long term plan, don't pay him expecting short term results. I personally like Moore a lot. He's a competitor and could be a stop gap while we wait for a better class of QBs and (hopefully) build up a talented roster.


I've always been a big Moore fan too. I thought he was the guy in Carolina but they went Newton. He's one of the few people I'd be alright with leaving Palmer for. IF he'd take a smaller salary than the difference between keeping Palmer and releasing him. Only problem is he'd be facing the same problems Palmer is. And the only thing he has on Palmer is better mobility. Just about everywhere else, I'd take Palmer.

Still, Moore lost out to Tannehil in TC. I realize they probably preferred giving their Franchise QB a shot since there wasn't a big difference in production, but that in itself implies he's about par with a raw rookie qb. And he was losing out to Garrard at first too before he got injured. A middle of the pack castoff coming off a year of no football and with back trouble.

In short, I could live with the move but I'd still probably keep Palmer if it were up to me and this was the best alternative.


Valid points.

The QB spot is an enigma for me right now. I see no future with it in Oakland. I've been on board drafting a QB since 2004 when I thought Big Ben should have been the pick (always favoring a trade down).

Since, it's been a string of QBs and the investment in one couldn't have been a worse #1 overall in a bad class.

It'd be nice to hang our hats on a QB for once since Gannon. We're the new Miami Dolphins right now still searching for that QB they haven't had since Marino.

When will the cycle end?

Really tough question for RM.

If he build the team up on a yearly basis, this is the highest pick he will have...ideal for QB, however this year's class is not that good IMO...
Will be interesting...I think we will go OL\DL early
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oakdb36


Joined: 02 Mar 2006
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 11:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Silver&Black88 wrote:

But starter money is at least 5 million, so with his cap hit plus what we'd pay for a new starter, we'd be in the same spot. Hell, worse. He's at least average and knows our system well. There aren't Many better FA QB prospects out there, much less any who'd take a salary less than the difference between Palmer's salary and dead money cap hit if cut. This is why I think it would be a bad decision to go in a different direction next year. We can't do better barring a blockbuster trade which won't happen. Unless you'd rather have a worse QB


In the end, the decision will be about Palmer's worth. If he stays, the Raiders have to spend 13M more. And they'd gain a bit over 9M in cap room for 2013 if he goes.
You also have to take into account that his base salary is 15M in 2014 and by getting rid of him now, you're clearing his full cap hit for 2014, which is close to 19M. Like Dante said, it's about commiting 28M (real money) over the next 2 years to Palmer.

I think it's a similar situation to Wimbley. It's not a player you can easily replace right away but long term, it helps. Plus his level of play isn't up to par with his salary.
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Roninho


Joined: 10 Feb 2009
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 11:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

big_palooka wrote:
I'm a Palmer supporter, but I agree with this. Palmer isn't going to be on this team in 3 years. His salary (I admittedly don't know his cap numbers for waiving him/keeping him, etc.) serves no purpose to the team that is not in position to compete right now.

Honestly, look at where the Raiders are at right now w/ the draft:

Chiefs 2-10
Jaguars 2-10
Panthers 3-9
Eagles 3-9
Raiders 3-9

The Raiders have the Panthers and Chiefs still to play. They are assured a top 5 pick IMO.

This brings the question. A bad team, rebuilding, should they draft a QB (the most important position on the field) to build around?

If not, can they find a cheaper alternative than Palmer? Answer, yes. And IMO, Moore is the best bet.

My preference, if Palmer doesn't fit into a long term plan, don't pay him expecting short term results. I personally like Moore a lot. He's a competitor and could be a stop gap while we wait for a better class of QBs and (hopefully) build up a talented roster.

For me it's quite simple if i'm GM: Draft a qb if you think/believe that the best QB available with your pick has a decent chance to develop in a year or 2-3 in a Cutler, Schaub, Romo like QB. If you don't think anybody who is available will ever be of that level i'd much rather select BPA, since we need an upgrade everywhere. A difference maker on defense is for example needed pretty badly.

So in the case of no available 'franchise qb' i'd keep Palmer and his big salary over dumping him for a 'cheaper' alternative. Yes he isn't the future, but he is by far the best QB available imo, and getting rid of him imo simply creates more holes then a few million in cap can solve.
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Roninho


Joined: 10 Feb 2009
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 12:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

oakdb36 wrote:
Silver&Black88 wrote:

But starter money is at least 5 million, so with his cap hit plus what we'd pay for a new starter, we'd be in the same spot. Hell, worse. He's at least average and knows our system well. There aren't Many better FA QB prospects out there, much less any who'd take a salary less than the difference between Palmer's salary and dead money cap hit if cut. This is why I think it would be a bad decision to go in a different direction next year. We can't do better barring a blockbuster trade which won't happen. Unless you'd rather have a worse QB


In the end, the decision will be about Palmer's worth. If he stays, the Raiders have to spend 13M more. And they'd gain a bit over 9M in cap room for 2013 if he goes.
You also have to take into account that his base salary is 15M in 2014 and by getting rid of him now, you're clearing his full cap hit for 2014, which is close to 19M. Like Dante said, it's about commiting 28M (real money) over the next 2 years to Palmer.

I think it's a similar situation to Wimbley. It's not a player you can easily replace right away but long term, it helps. Plus his level of play isn't up to par with his salary.

Jason Campbell had a $5 million contract for us, so net effect would in 2013 be 3-4 milion. A guy like curtis lofton signed a deal that paid him $5.5 million on average, so we wouldn't even be able to sign a good MLB with that savings.

In 2014 we could still cut Palmer, and spend the savings on a drafted QB.

Oh and imo it is a different situation compared to Wimbley. We are talking about a QB, not a linebacker. Imo replacing an average qb with an below average qb will impact our offense way more then replacing an average lb with a below average lb.
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oakdb36


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 12:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Roninho wrote:

So in the case of no available 'franchise qb' i'd keep Palmer and his big salary over dumping him for a 'cheaper' alternative. Yes he isn't the future, but he is by far the best QB available imo, and getting rid of him imo simply creates more holes then a few million in cap can solve.


I think it's bigger than just the QB position. You have to look at every position in FA and figure out if any of the guys available could be part of the long term future of this team and how much you'd be willing to spend on them. If what you can save by getting rid of Palmer can be used to bring those kind of guys in, how wouldn't we be further along in this re-building process? We'd still have to fix the QB position at some point but we will have to anyway.
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big_palooka


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 12:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The sad truth, you like to think the team will improve in 2013. But it's much to soon. They are likely picking top 10 again in 2014 unless something dramatic happens to the roster this offseason and the resources just aren't there.

So I go Palmer for another year. Take a hard look at Pryor because he's on the team (like it or not) then draft QB in 2014 (Carr is my choice projecting the class).
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oakdb36


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 12:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Roninho wrote:

Oh and imo it is a different situation compared to Wimbley. We are talking about a QB, not a linebacker. Imo replacing an average qb with an below average qb will impact our offense way more then replacing an average lb with a below average lb.


But somehow, our offense isn't better than when we had the below average QB starting. On the other hand, we can't pressure the QB at all and our defense is getting shredded.
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Silver&Black88


Joined: 24 Feb 2009
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 12:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

oakdb36 wrote:
Silver&Black88 wrote:

But starter money is at least 5 million, so with his cap hit plus what we'd pay for a new starter, we'd be in the same spot. Hell, worse. He's at least average and knows our system well. There aren't Many better FA QB prospects out there, much less any who'd take a salary less than the difference between Palmer's salary and dead money cap hit if cut. This is why I think it would be a bad decision to go in a different direction next year. We can't do better barring a blockbuster trade which won't happen. Unless you'd rather have a worse QB


In the end, the decision will be about Palmer's worth. If he stays, the Raiders have to spend 13M more. And they'd gain a bit over 9M in cap room for 2013 if he goes.
You also have to take into account that his base salary is 15M in 2014 and by getting rid of him now, you're clearing his full cap hit for 2014, which is close to 19M. Like Dante said, it's about commiting 28M (real money) over the next 2 years to Palmer.

I think it's a similar situation to Wimbley. It's not a player you can easily replace right away but long term, it helps. Plus his level of play isn't up to par with his salary.


I was under the impression he wouldn't be under contract after 2013....but he'd have a 19 mill cap hit in 2014? Ouch. How do you figure we'd gain 9 million in cap for next year if he goes after this year though? His cap hit was 7 million if we release him versus 13 if we keep him. Is there a bonus I'm unaware of?

I've clearly misunderstood the financial aspect of this decision.
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oakdb36


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 12:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Silver&Black88 wrote:

I was under the impression he wouldn't be under contract after 2013....but he'd have a 19 mill cap hit in 2014? Ouch. How do you figure we'd gain 9 million in cap for next year if he goes after this year though? His cap hit was 7 million if we release him versus 13 if we keep him. Is there a bonus I'm unaware of?

I've clearly misunderstood the financial aspect of this decision.


http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/oakland-raiders/carson-palmer/

13M is his base salary for 2013. To that, you must add the prorated signing bonus. His cap hit is 16.891M.
If he's released, the cap hit for 2013 is the sum of the prorated signing bonus for 2013 and 2014 (unless some of his base salary is guaranteed which we have no information about). That's 3.891 x 2 or 7.782M.

If he's cut post june 1st, he's carrying the prorated signing bonus for 2013 and 2014.
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big_palooka


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 12:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Silver&Black88 wrote:
oakdb36 wrote:
Silver&Black88 wrote:

But starter money is at least 5 million, so with his cap hit plus what we'd pay for a new starter, we'd be in the same spot. Hell, worse. He's at least average and knows our system well. There aren't Many better FA QB prospects out there, much less any who'd take a salary less than the difference between Palmer's salary and dead money cap hit if cut. This is why I think it would be a bad decision to go in a different direction next year. We can't do better barring a blockbuster trade which won't happen. Unless you'd rather have a worse QB


In the end, the decision will be about Palmer's worth. If he stays, the Raiders have to spend 13M more. And they'd gain a bit over 9M in cap room for 2013 if he goes.
You also have to take into account that his base salary is 15M in 2014 and by getting rid of him now, you're clearing his full cap hit for 2014, which is close to 19M. Like Dante said, it's about commiting 28M (real money) over the next 2 years to Palmer.

I think it's a similar situation to Wimbley. It's not a player you can easily replace right away but long term, it helps. Plus his level of play isn't up to par with his salary.


I was under the impression he wouldn't be under contract after 2013....but he'd have a 19 mill cap hit in 2014? Ouch. How do you figure we'd gain 9 million in cap for next year if he goes after this year though? His cap hit was 7 million if we release him versus 13 if we keep him. Is there a bonus I'm unaware of?

I've clearly misunderstood the financial aspect of this decision.


I'm right there with you.

Bottom line, if financially in makes sense to keep Palmer, do it. If not, don't.

Simple as that for me. The team isn't winning with or without him for a number of years.
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Silver&Black88


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 12:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

oakdb36 wrote:
Silver&Black88 wrote:

I was under the impression he wouldn't be under contract after 2013....but he'd have a 19 mill cap hit in 2014? Ouch. How do you figure we'd gain 9 million in cap for next year if he goes after this year though? His cap hit was 7 million if we release him versus 13 if we keep him. Is there a bonus I'm unaware of?

I've clearly misunderstood the financial aspect of this decision.


http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/oakland-raiders/carson-palmer/

13M is his base salary for 2013. To that, you must add the prorated signing bonus. His cap hit is 16.891M.
If he's released, the cap hit for 2013 is the sum of the prorated signing bonus for 2013 and 2014 (unless some of his base salary is guaranteed which we have no information about). That's 3.891 x 2 or 7.782M.

If he's cut post june 1st, he's carrying the prorated signing bonus for 2013 and 2014.


Now this makes sense to me. I mean, there are some caveats I'm unfamiliar with involved, but the explanation helped explain them.

big_palooka wrote:
if financially in makes sense to keep Palmer, do it. If not, don't.

Simple as that for me. The team isn't winning with or without him for a number of years.


I'm right there with you on this part too. I'm fine with letting Reggie decide this one. As far as on-the-field football goes though, I'd prefer to keep him.
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Chali21


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 1:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

big_palooka wrote:
The sad truth, you like to think the team will improve in 2013. But it's much to soon. They are likely picking top 10 again in 2014 unless something dramatic happens to the roster this offseason and the resources just aren't there.

So I go Palmer for another year. Take a hard look at Pryor because he's on the team (like it or not) then draft QB in 2014 (Carr is my choice projecting the class).


I really agree with this, we need to evaluate Palmer and Pryor both to see if they are part of the long term plans. If not I'm all for Carr in 2014 while holding on to Palmer.
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TiberiusRising


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 1:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I would want to see a lot of Pryor as well in these last couple games. If he looks just as good as any of the top QB's in this draft then no reason to waste a 1st round pick.

As others have said I am really not impressed with any of the QB's in this draft and Palmer is the best option at this point.
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LivingLegendWFC


Joined: 28 Oct 2009
Posts: 11081
PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 1:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think were in a situation where were going to have to continue to get worse so we can start fresh and move towards building a contender in two to four years. And as bad as it may hurt in the short term it is what we need to contend consistently in the long term.

That means possibly getting rid of Palmer assuming it doesn't mean we aren't really gaining anything financially and I'll be the first to tell you I know little about that stuff. The fact of the matter is that Reggie was brought into a situation with little talent and a huge payroll. The only way to fix an issue like that is to do what you have to do to get a clean slate. You have to weed out the overpaid guys and look to bring in new talent, the thing is its hard to bring in talent when your paying scrubs big bucks.

We can no longer try and put a band aid on a severed limb. Reggie is doing what he has to to get this team back to neutral. It sucks that after being so bad for so long were still looking at a lengthy rebuild, but its because Al always tried for the quick fix. Let Reggie weed out all the overpaid, and low level talent and bring in youth with room to grow. That means Seymour, Kelly, Huff, McClain, and possibly Palmer, but we also have to realize that financially that can't be done in one year. Hang in their Raider Nation, it sucks but this is what needs to be done in order to turn this franchise back into a team that was a threat to win it all year in and year out. I can't wait to see what Reggie is able to do in the draft because that is where we are going to bring in the youth and talent that we need to fix this mess.
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