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bobdevine


Joined: 24 Jan 2008
Posts: 2232
Location: Wisconsin
PostPosted: Wed Nov 28, 2012 4:19 pm    Post subject: Playoff Picture Reply with quote

With 5 more games remaining, what are the scenarios of the Broncos in the playoffs?

Making the playoffs - nearly 100%.
(They are guaranteed a playoff spot with another win or a Charger loss.)

Bye week for wild-card playoff - 50%

Based on the current team records, the AFC playoff seedings could end up as:
1. Houston Texans
2. Denver Broncos
3. New England Patriots
4. Baltimore Ravens
5. Indianapolis Colts
6. Pittsburgh Steelers

Broncos and Patriots are currently tied at 8-3. The Broncos look like they have an easier schedule than the Patriots so I put the Broncos as the #2 seed but that is probably 50/50.

Ravens are 9-2 but they will probably finish with at least two more losses. Broncos go to Baltimore on Dec 16th. This will be a big game.
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jsthomp2007


Joined: 11 Jan 2008
Posts: 7387
Location: USA
PostPosted: Thu Nov 29, 2012 11:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Patriots won't be a three seed. If the Broncos can, and have a chance to do, in beating the Ravens, I think the Broncos could be a three.
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AnAngryAmerican


Joined: 23 Apr 2006
Posts: 18547
Location: Loveland, CO
PostPosted: Thu Nov 29, 2012 4:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't think there's a chance we can get the #1 seed, but the anywhere between 2 and 4 is possible.

I'd almost prefer to the 3 to the 2 so long as New England is the 4. The only place I don't want to travel to in the playoffs is Foxboro. I'm not nearly as worried going to Houston or Baltimore as I am there. If we get the 3 we get either the Steelers or the Colts at home in the WC round, that's a win. Then we go to Baltimore who will have just played a four weeks prior.
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broncospride95


Joined: 04 Feb 2010
Posts: 2336
Location: Chicago to Boulder
PostPosted: Thu Nov 29, 2012 7:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

AnAngryAmerican wrote:
I don't think there's a chance we can get the #1 seed, but the anywhere between 2 and 4 is possible.

I'd almost prefer to the 3 to the 2 so long as New England is the 4. The only place I don't want to travel to in the playoffs is Foxboro. I'm not nearly as worried going to Houston or Baltimore as I am there. If we get the 3 we get either the Steelers or the Colts at home in the WC round, that's a win. Then we go to Baltimore who will have just played a four weeks prior.

Agreed. No team in the playoffs scare me more than the Patriots. I've been saying this for quite some time, we just don't match up well against them.
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bobdevine


Joined: 24 Jan 2008
Posts: 2232
Location: Wisconsin
PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 6:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Latest odds:
http://www.coolstandings.com/football/playoff_picture.asp?sn=2012

Quote:
1 seed Houston (85.4%) , New England (12.1%) , Denver (1.5%)
2 seed Denver (32.5%) , New England (29.1%) , Baltimore (26.5%)
3 seed Denver (34.9%) , New England (34.8%) , Baltimore (26.4%)
4 seed Denver (31.2%) , Baltimore (29.1%) , New England (24.0%)
5 seed Indianapolis (44.0%) , Pittsburgh (28.0%) , Cincinnati (14.6%)
6 seed Pittsburgh (32.5%) , Indianapolis (31.1%) , Cincinnati (25.3%)
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MileHighNuck


Joined: 14 Nov 2012
Posts: 341
PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 9:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm thinking we play the Pats again in the divisional round in Fox.
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bobdevine


Joined: 24 Jan 2008
Posts: 2232
Location: Wisconsin
PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 10:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If the Broncos don't get the #2 seed, there's a possibility that they play the Colts in a wild-card round. That would be a game with an easy media story-line -- old gun vs new gun, etc.

There's also a possibility of playing Pittsburgh this year. If that happens, the TV networks will dust off video tape of last year's Tebow win.

Regardless of the wild-card games, the road to the Super Bowl goes through Houston this year.
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BroncoinGermany


Joined: 09 Mar 2012
Posts: 2497
Location: Bad Nauheim
PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 5:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here is a nice tool to get an interactive overview in an instant:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

I agree with you, the 1st seed is unlikely.

The Broncos have to win all of their games remaining for us to have a chance at NE's current 2nd seed. I only see the Patriots potentially losing the Houston game, and even that is not all that realistic. The SF game is against a mostly injury free defense, yet also against a Kaepernick led team, which to me indicates on first glance that Brady is going to score a couple and that was that then. So all we have to focus on is that 2nd or 3rd seed.

- - - - - - - - - -
Race for a Broncos 2nd seed:

- Patriots have to lose at least 1 game during the next four weeks (vs. Hou/vs. SF/@ Jax/vs. Miami) (3-1)
- Broncos have to win all four games (@ Oak/@ Bal/vs. Cle/vs. Chiefs) (4-0)

Race for a Broncos 3rd seed and avoidance of NE until the AFC CCG (3rd seed does not play 2nd seed in the Divisional Round, does it?):

- Patriots win all four games (4-0)
- Broncos lose (not more than) 1 game (3-1)
- Ravens have to lose at least 2 games (@ Wash/vs. Den/vs. NYG/@ Cinci) (2-2)
- - - - - - - - - -
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PredomntlyOrnge


Joined: 27 Jan 2011
Posts: 252
Location: Loveland
PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 11:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

With the Patriots most likely getting the 2 seed - we are better off getting the 4 seed. I dont want us to lose obviously - but we would travel to Foxboro if we are the 3 after the wildcard game - and I just dont see us winning that game. Any other team/field and we are going to the super bowl. Heres hoping we can get the 2 seed.......
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RazorStar


Joined: 12 Sep 2010
Posts: 1218
PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 1:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

3rd seed would always play the second seed in the divisional round, provided the 3rd seed moved on. 3 is the worst spot to be, I'd be happy with either the 4th seed or the 2nd, but the 3rd is aan awful place since we'll probably be playing some really hot sneaker team, and if we survive that we face the Patriots... not down.
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MileHighNuck


Joined: 14 Nov 2012
Posts: 341
PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 2:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

We may very well end up playing the Steelers in the Wildcard then the Pats in Foxborough again. As many seem to feel, I think the end result would be the same. We may be better off playing the Texans.
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BroncoinGermany


Joined: 09 Mar 2012
Posts: 2497
Location: Bad Nauheim
PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 2:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Okay... then the 3rd seed scenario is nothing to go for. My bad that I was not spot on in terms of playoff schedule. Anyways...

I know it is completely ridiculous to think that what I am about to suggest may actually come across Fox's mind BUT how about we purposefully tank a game or two in order to be the 4th seed?

I know playing the game Italian style is wrong yet the way the next for weeks are set up this could indeed work. On the one hand, play hard against Oakland and Baltimore to potentially go 4-0, on the other hand observe how the Patriots play against Houston and Cisco. If New England actually loses a game of those two, the Broncos have a shot at the 2nd seed. However, if the Patriots go 2-0 against the two best teams left on their schedule, Denver can probably assume that they go 4-0 and a Broncos sweep of the last quarter of the season is not only futile but also bad concerning the playoff divisonal round and with that not good for a Super Bowl run.

Beating Oakland and Baltimore to then see how the Patriots have fared and go grom there... this would be the smart albeit unethical way to go.
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MileHighNuck


Joined: 14 Nov 2012
Posts: 341
PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 2:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

No way Fox or Peyton would buy into a loss for a lower seeding. Not only is it not guaranteed, but just a pansy move. For a fan it's no big deal to hope for a favorable match-up, but no matter what we have to beat the best. No point in getting PFM if we are just gonna avoid the Pats. Brady is 35 to Peytons 36, he's not going anywhere. Im still worried about the Steelers if we face them, top passing D and can never count out Ben.
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JerseysFinest27


Joined: 07 Jan 2010
Posts: 8323
Location: New Jersey... Props to inDENguise on the sig
PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 3:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It doesnt matter who we play in the playoffs. We have Peyton Freaking Manning playing excellent football. As long as guys stay healthy we'll do damage. Things are very different now.
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bobdevine


Joined: 24 Jan 2008
Posts: 2232
Location: Wisconsin
PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 5:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Next 4 games for AFC teams that might be in the playoffs:

Broncos: @Raiders @Ravens Browns Chiefs
Patriots: Texans 49ers @Jaguars Dolphins
Ravens: @Redskins Broncos Giants @ Bengals
Steelers: Chargers @Cowboys Bengals Browns
Colts: Titans @Texans @Chiefs Texans
Texans: @Patriots Colts Vikings @Colts

The schedule for the Broncos looks like the easiest. The team should win at least 3 of the remaining games. The Texans have the hardest schedule but they'll remain the #1 seed unless they lose all 4 games (Broncos lost to them so if the Texans finish with 1-3 and the Broncos have the same record, Texans have the tie-breaker and will remain the #1 seed.)
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