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Sandybaby Offseason Mock 1 - Number Crunching

 
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Sandybaby716


Joined: 11 Mar 2007
Posts: 3645
Location: Rhode Island
PostPosted: Thu Nov 29, 2012 1:01 am    Post subject: Sandybaby Offseason Mock 1 - Number Crunching Reply with quote

So last season a lot of my mocks included team salaries and how the cap was effected by my projected moves. Here's my first one with such figures.

Using Rotoworld, I added up the anticipated salaries of our top 53 players under contract for next season. 47 players and 6 open spots at $400k for minimum wage. I am anticipating a cap of $120m and $5m needed for draft picks, so pre-draft we need to be under $115m.

Team Payroll: $106.2m
Room: $8.8m

Releases:
We need to clear some space if we want to have any room for re-signings this offseason. Some tough decisions are made

Jeff Saturday - Cap Hit: $3.75m, Cap Savings $3.35m
Underwhelming and older than we need, he could retire.

Charles Woodson - Cap Hit: $10m, Cap Savings: $9.6m
A fan favorite and team leader, he is not worth the money he's being payed. Another who may retire.

Jermichael Finley - Cap Hit: $8.3m, Cap Savings: $7.9m
A polarizing figure who has a big anticipated pay spike. It was said last offseason that it was the perfect contract for the team and for Finley; if he's great he makes this and eventually gets a long contract. If he plays like he is this season he can be released.

Payroll: $85.35m
Space: $29.65m

Re-signings:
The space we have gives us some flexibility to reward some of our impending free agents.

Greg Jennings: 1yr, $11.2m (Franchise Tag)
Cap Hit: $11.2m, Cap Used: $10.8m
I averaged the top five WR contracts as I found them on the internet and that's what I came up with.

Tom Crabtree: 1yr, $1.26m (RFA Low)
Cap Hit: $1.26m, Cap Used: $0.86m.
If someone makes him an offer we match. I doubt anyone tries to pry him away, however. We need him following the release of Finley.

Sam Shields: 1yr, $1.93m (RFA 2nd)
Cap Hit: $1.93m, Cap Used: $1.53m
We put a second round tender on Shields to make sure that, if we do lose him, we get compensated for it.

Evan Deitrich-Smith: 2yr, $5m
Cap Hit: $2m, Cap Used: $1.6m
A contract friendly on both sides. If EDS emerges as the starting center he'd be able to sign an extension next season. If he doesn't he won't kill us in terms of pay.

Brad Jones: 3yr, $9m
Cap Hit: $3m, Cap Used: $2.6m
He re-signs to be a valuable backup for us. He can back up every position among our linebackers and is often the first off the bench. A good situation for him where he knows he is a valuable part of a team that is committed to him.

Payroll: $102.75m
Space: $12.25m

Releases:

Donald Driver: Retires, most likely.
Cedric Benson: Just not a fan of his style or fit in this offense. We can do better elsewhere.
Erik Walden: He's having a pretty decent season, but it will cost a couple million to bring him back and Moses and Perry have shown enough promise to have us get by without him.
Rob Francois (RFA): not worth the low tender.
Frank Zombo (RFA) not worth the low tender.

Extensions:
With the amount of money saved, we can start looking towards the growing list of free agents next season (currently at 16).

Greg Jennings: 4 yrs, $44m
Cap hit: $9m, Cap used: $-1.8m
We save so money this season on Jennings. The amount goes down in the second and third seasons before a balloon season in the final year put in to support another extension.

Clay Matthews: 5 yrs, $60m
Cap Hit: $13m, Cap used: $11.5m
Since he makes $1.5m next season these are the figures. We lock up our second best player for a long time.

Payroll: $112.05m
Space: $2.95m

With $3m left to spend besides our draft choices we move on to the draft.

The Draft

We select late round one. We also get two fourths for comps.

1. Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma
6'6", 303 pounds

Overview: Athletic player who is raw since he has shifted from QB to TE to DE to RT and now to LT this season. Rises to the occasion against his toughest matchups. Known for his mean streak, something that's been missing from our starting linemen.

Analysis: Insurance in case Bulaga's injury takes long to heal or if Sherrod never fully recovers/becomes a bust. Regardless, he keeps our options open. We have very poor depth at tackle with undrafted free agents as our top backups. Protecting Aaron is our top priority, and giving him extra time will only improve our offenses efficiency. Could gohigher if some underclassmen don't come out and a team reaches a bit on him.

2. Ryan Otten, TE, San Jose State
6'5, 248 lbs

Overview: I anticipate his draft stock to rise significantly from his current 4th round grade. Very smooth, fast, great hands. Natural pass catcher, much like Finley before the injury in this regard. Not much production this season, so he's going off of talent with this pick.

Analysis: Between Otten, Crabtree, Quarless, and Williams, we have a solid trio of players to cycle in and out. I anticipate Quarless is named the starter, but Otten is taken because we really don't know for sure how good Q will be following a significant injury.

3. Tony Jefferson, DB, Oklahoma
5'11, 212 lbs

Overview: Profiles best as a safety. Very versatile player; he is a solid blitzer and is good in run support, though he needs to work on tackling technique. Great instincts and solid ball skills, can develop into a true star if in the right system.

Analysis: With Woodson gone, I see the safety position being a free for all for the two spots. Jefferson sticks his nose right into the mix with Burnett, Dr, and Million. His potential in this scheme is limitless as his versatility is arguably his best attribute.

4. Braxton Cave, C, Notre Dame
6'3, 305

Overview: Currently rising up boards, so he may not be available here. Cave is tough, and this season has proven he can handle the pressure of touching the ball every play in the spotlight.

Analysis: The late selection of a center implies that the job is EDS' to lose. Cave is talented enough to step in should EDS fall on his face and handle the position.

4. (Comp) Christine Michael, RB, Texas A&M
5'11, 220 lbs

Overview: Great vision. Now that I've sold you, he has good quickness and speed, great size. Some character and injury concerns are the only things holding him back from being an early second rounder.

Analysis: He'll be given a chance to usurp the starting running back spot from Starks or Green in TC. Whether he does or doesn't isn't much of a factor, but getting a fresh face in the battle can't hurt.

4. (Comp) Anthony White, NT, Michigan State
6'2, 330 lbs

Overview: Has gained a lot of muscle mass over the past couple of seasons and is now a solid mid-round NT prospect. The combine will answer some questions about his strength. Comfortable in the 0, 1, and 3 techniques. Good leadership skills.

Analysis: With how tight money should be, there is no guarantee that Pickett gets a contract extension. We've seen what happens when CJ Wilson misses time, losing Pickett could be a catastrophe for our defense. White could play either NT or LE in rotation for us.

5. Cody Hoffman, WR, BYU
6'3, 212

Overview: I've seen him all over the place in draft rankings but he could be a steal in this spot. He's big, fast, and has soft hands, and he plays well against the best defenses he's faced (including 8 catches for 86 yards and a TD against Notre Dame). Improved throughout the season and has 8 TDs in his last 3 games. 8. That's a lot for three games.

Analysis: We re-signed Jennings and have Jones, Cobb, and Nelson, but Jones is a FA after next season and his stock may have risen to the point that we let him walk. Hoffman gives us an option, especially considering the shaky injury histories of Jennings and Nelson. Similar player to Jones and would be able to replace him effectively should we lose him.

6. Theo Riddick, RB, Notre Dame
5'10, 200

Overview: Tough runner, pushes through would be tacklers to fight for the extra yard. Also has excellent quickness and can juke and spin to avoid tackles too. Lacks elite high end speed and size which is why he falls to the 6th. Was a WR last season before moving back to RB and has excellent hands for a back.

Analysis: Another name to throw in the RB hat this season. I would not be shocked if he came away with the gig over Michael, Starks, and Green. Profiles as an excellent option as a third down back if he continues to work on his pass blocking skills. Adds a lot of versatility as he can line up wide or in the backfield.

7. Jordan Rodgers, QB, Vanderbilt
6'1, 212

Overview: Has gotten better and better as his college career has progressed, and plays in a conference with several tough defenses. Shorter than most preferred QBs but Wilson and Brees have reset some of the previous standards. Has the family's work ethic to improve. Not a laser arm right now. Good athleticism to extend plays with his feet.

Analysis: My homerist pick, I think that the work ethic his brother has runs in the family. Aaron also had a weak arm coming out of school, also required the spend time in JUCO. After throwing 3 TDs in his first 6 games, he has thrown for 10 in his last five. Has also thrown for at least 200 yards in each of those last five games and has become more and more comfortable. Aaron will put in the good word and the staff has shown in the past that they are willing to listen to his judgement, even when it could be biased.
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In all fairness it is kind of rude to just lay injured at their feet while the Lions defensive players are trying to hold a completely unrelated dance party.

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justo


Joined: 05 Aug 2012
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 29, 2012 1:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

First three picks make me clap loudly at you. Probably would switch the 2nd and 3rd rounders though...
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Sandybaby716


Joined: 11 Mar 2007
Posts: 3645
Location: Rhode Island
PostPosted: Thu Nov 29, 2012 1:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

justo wrote:
First three picks make me clap loudly at you. Probably would switch the 2nd and 3rd rounders though...


It's tough since I wanted to include both but I feel by the time of the draft neither will be available late third. Almost switched them but it would have been too much work and I am le tired.

Thanks for the kind words.
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wgbeethree wrote:
In all fairness it is kind of rude to just lay injured at their feet while the Lions defensive players are trying to hold a completely unrelated dance party.

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AlexGreen#20


Joined: 13 Jun 2012
Posts: 6479
PostPosted: Thu Nov 29, 2012 1:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not sure how anybody is pitching Cave in the 4th round. There's a reason that so few true college Centers are drafted. Being a pretty good college Center is a one way ticket to UDFAville. Only the elite guys get slotted, look at last year's class for an example. Cave isn't a special player.
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jfinley88


Joined: 08 Feb 2010
Posts: 11466
PostPosted: Thu Nov 29, 2012 2:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nice. I like the fresh faces.

Love the bulk and mean streak of Lane Johnson, with only two years on the line he looks impressive. Seems like a Packer lineman as well.

Big fan of Otten as well, haven't seen him go this high, but no reason he couldn't wind up around here. Very Greg Olsen-esque.

Not high on Jefferson. Like the physical style of play, but don't see him as a starter in today's NFL.

Never heard of Cave, but I'd love to get a piece of that ND line.

Michael's another good pick-up. Love the hard controlled running. Could probably be a starter if this would be the only guy we add to the back field.

Know nothing about White or Hoffman. Nice to another NT though. And if we re-sign Jennings then I do like picking a receiver up in the 5th or later, but no higher.

Only saw Riddick in that USC game, so now I'm super high on him. If he's there in the 6th I'd be ecstatic

Don't think Rodgers should be on any NFL team on this point, but It'd be cool.

Like this mock a lot. Very TT like.
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HyponGrey


Joined: 23 Jun 2012
Posts: 3736
Location: Down the road from NFL Films
PostPosted: Thu Nov 29, 2012 4:29 am    Post subject: Re: Sandybaby Offseason Mock 1 - Number Crunching Reply with quote

Sandybaby716 wrote:
mock

When I saw Michael I was going to say he and Starks can split reps while the other is injured, but Riddick covers the rear there. CBSSports has Jefferson going in the 2-3, but wouldn't mind him falling to us in the 4. I'm not sold on EDS, but even if I was, I wouldn't take my chances. We may have Sat, but his age is really showing, and Aaron is entirely too valuable. Good job on this!
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gizmo2012


Joined: 11 Mar 2007
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 29, 2012 10:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The RB disaster still is not addressed in this drat - its the only real problem I have with it. Quantity doesn't mean crap if they can't land a feature RB and they don't in your draft.
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Kenrik


Joined: 15 Dec 2011
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 29, 2012 11:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I honestly don't think RB is the issue. The problem is our oline. I would rather put more money towards a top LT than RB or oline coach Smile
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PackFan4Life


Joined: 05 Dec 2006
Posts: 4112
Location: De Pere, WI
PostPosted: Thu Nov 29, 2012 12:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

gizmo2012 wrote:
The RB disaster still is not addressed in this drat - its the only real problem I have with it. Quantity doesn't mean crap if they can't land a feature RB and they don't in your draft.


RBs emerge that were not great prospects out of college. Often times the quantity approach does work. Arian Foster is just one example. I would not be too quick to judge this approach just because you may not initially agree with it. Bottom line, there do not appear to be any RB prospects that are going to project as a team's feature back out of college, but a good bet is one or a few do end up emerging once given an opportunity.
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rbens06


Joined: 07 Jan 2008
Posts: 794
PostPosted: Thu Nov 29, 2012 2:11 pm    Post subject: Re: Sandybaby Offseason Mock 1 - Number Crunching Reply with quote

Sandybaby716 wrote:
So last season a lot of my mocks included team salaries and how the cap was effected by my projected moves. Here's my first one with such figures.

Using Rotoworld, I added up the anticipated salaries of our top 53 players under contract for next season. 47 players and 6 open spots at $400k for minimum wage. I am anticipating a cap of $120m and $5m needed for draft picks, so pre-draft we need to be under $115m.


Another thing that could/will help us is the rollover cap space we have. Now, we may not want to dip into this all at once and save some until the cap increases start occurring, but it is something that can/will add more flexibility. I think I remember somewhere saying we will have an anticipated 2013 salary cap of about $132 million. Basically it is the $11 million or so we are under the cap now (our 2012 adjusted cap is about $128 million) plus the expected $121 million 2013 cap.

Now if we maxed that $132 million out for next season the 2014 season would have to see some cuts because we would have to get down to whatever that cap number is. However, say for example we only use $6 million of it giving us a cap of $127 million for 2013 then we could rollover the remaining $5 million and have a 2014 cap of about $126 million (assuming the cap still remains flat).

Overall, you made it work just fine with the $120 million cap, but this adjusted cap would give us some flexibility and not have to cut as many people.
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rbens06


Joined: 07 Jan 2008
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 29, 2012 2:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

gizmo2012 wrote:
The RB disaster still is not addressed in this drat - its the only real problem I have with it. Quantity doesn't mean crap if they can't land a feature RB and they don't in your draft.


This is not a very good draft for runningbacks. This year there is a good chance no runningback is taken in the first round, especially if some of the top underclassman decide to go back.
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HyponGrey


Joined: 23 Jun 2012
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 29, 2012 2:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There were questions about Aaron's arm because of an injury, He had a cannon in JuCo (packers.com) but point is moot because Harrell did show an increase in arm strength
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Sandybaby716


Joined: 11 Mar 2007
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 01, 2012 7:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

HyponGrey wrote:
There were questions about Aaron's arm because of an injury, He had a cannon in JuCo (packers.com) but point is moot because Harrell did show an increase in arm strength


As did Flynn too. This staff is really good at getting the maximum velocity out of the arms on the team.

As per the running back issue, I feel like the quantity plan at the position would work well this draft. Two drafts ago the Pats took Vereen and Ridley. Vereen went first. Ridley is the starter. Taking two could cover our butts so we don't have to worry as much about the position.

rbens, I did not take the roll over cap into account because I wanted to be certain that I could fit everything under the cap. That way any mathematical errors on my behalf would be covered by that. But it should be something to be considered as we look at the offseason.
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In all fairness it is kind of rude to just lay injured at their feet while the Lions defensive players are trying to hold a completely unrelated dance party.

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