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Pre Combine Mock w/ Draft Thoughts

 
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Terranimal


Joined: 31 Oct 2011
Posts: 256
Location: Wisconsin
PostPosted: Sat Nov 17, 2012 1:24 am    Post subject: Pre Combine Mock w/ Draft Thoughts Reply with quote

For those who are familiar and those that aren't familiar with my mocks, tend to do things bit differently. Don't just go off players I like, but rather try to find players that fit the different criteria for the various positions using Thompson's tendencies and information gathered. Many times there are players I like that go on to have success in the NFL but didn't fit the Pack. Have had various success with this method. Much better results with the Big Board and the rounds they go in overall though. Of course better odds with more players tiered that way as well. Wink

At this time of the year never used to do Mocks and use to wait until after the All Star games and Combine/Pro days. Some years back my buddy's girlfriend got most of our Draft correct by picking player uniform colors and if that wasn't bad enough she also got all the teams right for the play-offs through the Super Bowl winner correct using the same system of team colors.....

Gone/Retired: Finley, Driver, Woodson (possible restructure & return?) Saturday.

50/50: Greg Jennings- A lot hinges on whether Jennings is re-signed or not. If Jennings gone would think it's no brainer would see the selection of a WR with-in the first 3 rounds. If re-signed, then maybe 50/50 on whether we draft one and if we do would think after round 3.

As for the tag and trade that so many fans are found of, am not so sure. The Franchise Tag is a lot of money tied up cap wise that could be used to re-sign other players and we might lose some players while trying to work out a trade. There is also no guarantee that there is trade partner just waiting and willing to not only pay our asking price for a trade, but also to commit that kind of money when Jennings is coming off a season of injuries and approaching the 30 age mark. That's a big gamble. And even if Thompson would tag and trade Jennings, don't see us getting a second rounder for him. Recent trends in the NFL would suggest that we would be very fortunate to get a 3rd.

So if we let Jennings hit the open market, we would most likely end up with a 3rd comp pick as compensation in the '14 Draft. Plus if Jennings doesn't find the market to what he's expecting there is a chance we could end up re-signing him for less than the Franchise Tag would guarantee him and cost us. And lastly, the league frowns on the use of the franchise tag and trading the player away.

For this Mock will play it straight w/o a trade and pick for Jennings

Re-Signed: Shields, Whalden, Crabtree, Benson

Unsure: Brad Jones, Francois

Now for some recent updates that might affect the Packers' Draft:

1.) For those following posts, then know of Aaron Rodgers thoughts and endorsement of EDS as the future Center of the Pack for years to come. Spoke of his dedication and "getting it" now. For more on this, check out Aaron Rodgers w/Jason Wilde on espnwisconsin from 10/13/12.

Since this came out, there is also talk of Greg Van Rotten as either back-up for Guard/Center or vying for the Center position himself.

2.) There has been much discussion over drafting either a big Corner or a Safety. Most of this has been in regards to replacing Woodson. While I don't discount improving the team if a Corner is too good to pass up, there has been much coming out of GB: On the improved play of Burnett as of late, McMillan doing a good job and how Hayward has impressed the coaching staff and doing good at Woodson's position. Plus we still have Richardson waiting in wings. So don't know how much of a real need a Safety/Corner is at this time. It took Collins around 3 seasons of growing pains before he turned it on and got it. Don't think the staff will be so quick to replace one of these young players, even though it's a deep draft for Safety. Unless one falls to them in round two,too good to pass up and is Thompson's highest rated player on the board.

3.) RB Benson: Most Pack fans have him wrote off for next year. I think he once again re-signs for the vet min. First RB in Rodgers time to spend time in with QBs to learn the system and play calls. Was getting close to breaking off one and then got injured. Have heard nothing but positive on him coming out of GB. Would also give Thompson some flexibility/insurance in the draft or free agency on running backs.

4.) Tackles: There is thought that Bulaga won't need surgery and that his injury isn't the same as Bo Jackson had, where Jackson torn his tendons. Sherrod is practicing off the PUP list and with-in the next two weeks will know if he gets activated or heads to IR. However this position of strength is a question mark right now and one we might not know the answer to until after the season. But if either or both look to be slow to return or futures in doubt, we might need to address OT early in the draft. Also Newhouse is a free agent in '14 and is entering his 4th year in '13. So a lot of uncertainty as of right now at OT.

On to the Mock:

Round 1: Currently the Pack select at 27, so am going with the assumption that the Pack will end up drafting near or at the end of every round. Not going with the popular trend here of taking an O-Line Center/Guard based off of Aaron and Silverstein. Then there is the other faction that think/want TE Eifert. Now Thompson could very well end up doing that, but going with trends of him here. Don't have any doubt that in the end it will be either O-Line, Corner (if one falls), but most likely at this time am along the lines that it will be D-Line. Two players that could very well be there are DE Sheldon Richardson (Mizz) or DL Jesse Williams. Another possible is DL Sharrif Floyd of Florida whose stock in on the rise.

Rd 1.) DL Jesse Williams Alabama 6-4 320 Can play all along the D-Line. But in GB would play LDE and NT filling in two positions. With Pickett getting up there and no one to spell Raji makes more sense than another pass rushing DE after the Pack spent two picks there last year. Williams is still a bit new, but has a high ceiling. Very powerful, with a thick frame, quick, agile, and athletic. Isn't in the elite status because of stat sheets, but stats don't tell the entire story, as the NFL has some great and good interior defensive linemen that don't show up on the stat sheet yet are invaluable to their teams. A wide bodied player capable of taking on multiple blockers. One thing I like is to see top talent going against top talent and liked Williams going against LSU.

Rd 2.) WR Da'Rick Rogers Tenn Tech 6-3 206 4.4 (40) (Caveat-This based off him passing one on one interviews with Pack staff). Everything have gathered have him as a good team mate, hard worker etc. His Tenn tech coach says he's a good kid, but we aren't privy to character information, thus the caveat.

There is no question when it comes to his on field talent. Good at rac, tough runner, can take the big hit, has speed to be a deep threat, very good hands. Played outside and slot when at Tenn. Rodgers has the talent to become a number 1 Go-To WR on the next level. Has drawn comparisons to the Falcon's Julio Jones. The Pack have a veteran team and good locker room chemistry to have a positive environment for Rogers. If not for the off-field at Tenn, he would be in discussion with the top 3 WRs for round 1. Was one of the top regarded prep prospects in the Country. Another possible is Louisiana Tech WR/KR Quiton Patton 6-2 200.

In any case, with Jennings gone, Jones a free agent in '14 and Nelson in '15, Thompson makes a pick and takes a chance before it becomes a major need. And we saw just how fast this season a position of strength can diminish.

Rd. 3.) OT Justin Pugh Syracuse 6-6 298 Some think he might be able to play Guard also, but has played LT. A player with quick feet, good body control and coordination, that mirrors rushers in space, and has a high ceiling. knock is he needs to spend more time on the weight room and fill out of his frame a bit more. Thompson seems to like to draft an OT almost every draft and with the uncertain future at this time of Bulaga and Sherrod, Newhouse a free agent in '14, and the team not overly happy with Datko, this pick makes sense. If we have good news on either/both Bulaga/Sherrod before the draft, then this opens this slot up for many other possibles and am thinking skill positions.

Rd 4.) C.J. Fiedorowicz Iowa 6-7 265 sticking with this player based off Palmy. Actually it's impossible time wise and everything else for me to watch and evaluate every player, so am reliant upon others for their opinions and net working. This is a case and point. Other: did think about a RB/DB here, but with Quarless a free agent in '14 and Finley gone, getting a TE that can be a complete package blocking and receiving makes sense.

Rd.4 comp pick for Flynn: RB Christine Michael Texas A&M 5-11 215 4.48 (40) The Good: Has good vision, can break tackles, uses spin and stiff arm moves, is quick to the hole and has lateral agility. The Bad: broke right leg in middle of 2010 and ACL on left knee halfway through 2011.

Rd.5.) Trey Millard Oklahoma 6-2 250 Possible he could go higher, but with teams using more one back sets these days, the value of the fullback has gone down over the past few years. With Kuhn approaching the 30 mark and after missing time due to injury this year, might be time to carry more than one FB and prepare for the future. Millard can catch, block and be a short yardage Back.

Rd.6.) CB Darius Slay Miss St. 6-1 4.5 (40) Has quietly been putting up a good year playing opposite Jonathan Banks. Slay can also play Man coverage. Hard to gauge where he goes right now as sites are all over the place from as high as rd 3 through rd 7. Might be that have to switch Slay and Michael around. But think most get the picture here.

Rd 7.) DE Kapron Lewis-Moore ND 6-4 306 Might have him too low for here, but as lately has been in the 6 to 7th round range. Another player also had here in a prior draft was DE Craig Roh. Both Neal and Wilson become free agents in '14. Time to add for depth and develop.

Rd 7 comp pick for Wells: QB Alex Carder Western Mich. 6-2 224 Another QB to groom and bring in to compete for the 3rd QB job. The kid has a good arm and has a good completion to interception ratio.
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CallMeBarrett


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 17, 2012 4:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote




My favorite by far.



Though I'd love to see the organization take Mike Gillislee.
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I Am Rodgers


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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 12:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought we'd get a higher comp pick from Wells since he got a larger contract with more guaranteed money. Also, think we lose a comp pick for signing Saturday.

As far as the prospects go I like Fiedoriwicz. I had him in a mock I was making, but I scrapped it after doing more research. Not a huge Williams fan. At least that high. Would gladly take him in the 2nd. In the 1st though I want someone with more 3rd down value, more pass rush ability. Darick Rogers, I don't know the whole story. I'm sure TT will though. Don't question his ability. Curious to know whats behind the scenes though. That's the toughest part when mocking for this packers team. They highly value moral/ethics/etc. A team like the Bengals it seems you don't need to worry too much about that.
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Terranimal


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 1:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I Am Rodgers wrote:
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought we'd get a higher comp pick from Wells since he got a larger contract with more guaranteed money. Also, think we lose a comp pick for signing Saturday.

As far as the prospects go I like Fiedoriwicz. I had him in a mock I was making, but I scrapped it after doing more research. Not a huge Williams fan. At least that high. Would gladly take him in the 2nd. In the 1st though I want someone with more 3rd down value, more pass rush ability. Darick Rogers, I don't know the whole story. I'm sure TT will though. Don't question his ability. Curious to know whats behind the scenes though. That's the toughest part when mocking for this packers team. They highly value moral/ethics/etc. A team like the Bengals it seems you don't need to worry too much about that.


You answered your own question.... Wink

This guy who is so accurate at predicting comp picks, said the reason why we will only get a 7th for Wells is because we signed Saturdays as a free agent.

Now for Williams. Those big guys are hard to come by. Though he is still a bit raw, he has a high ceiling imo. History and projections of drafts says that the DLs go fast. This draft is deep, but if we wait until round 2 and picking near end of round two, all those types will be off the board.

Pickett is getting older and Raji has been dinged up on and off this year, with no one really behind Raji. Having another big body eating up space will help the run game and hopefully free up the linebackers. A few seasons ago we had one of the biggest D-Lines and were near top in stopping the run. Capers likes to rotate the DLs and keep them fresh. Raji has played a huge number of snaps over the last couple of seasons and seemed to wear down a bit by season's end.
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MNPackfan32


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 2:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The only one that does anything for me is Fiedo. Otherwise, not so much.
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MNPackfan32 wrote:
Josh Sitton, Mike Daniels

Average at best
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I Am Rodgers


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 2:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Terranimal wrote:
I Am Rodgers wrote:
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought we'd get a higher comp pick from Wells since he got a larger contract with more guaranteed money. Also, think we lose a comp pick for signing Saturday.


You answered your own question.... Wink

This guy who is so accurate at predicting comp picks, said the reason why we will only get a 7th for Wells is because we signed Saturdays as a free agent.


I thought that signing Saturday would cancel out Flynn completely. I don't think it would decrease value, I thought it was just a straight sign one/lose one type scenario. Thus Wells giving us a 4th and Flynn netting us nothing.
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Good thing for talky-talk Harbaugh he has an outstanding citizen/player like Aldon Smith on his team and not a classless hooligan like Clay Matthews.
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spilltray


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 2:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I Am Rodgers wrote:
Terranimal wrote:
I Am Rodgers wrote:
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought we'd get a higher comp pick from Wells since he got a larger contract with more guaranteed money. Also, think we lose a comp pick for signing Saturday.


You answered your own question.... Wink

This guy who is so accurate at predicting comp picks, said the reason why we will only get a 7th for Wells is because we signed Saturdays as a free agent.


I thought that signing Saturday would cancel out Flynn completely. I don't think it would decrease value, I thought it was just a straight sign one/lose one type scenario. Thus Wells giving us a 4th and Flynn netting us nothing.


Its based off contract value. Saturday's closest contract value is Wells, but Wells is larger meaning it favors the Packers. Neither really comes close to Flynn's contract which is where the 4th comes on.
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RiotPunch


Joined: 14 Mar 2011
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 4:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

spilltray wrote:
Its based off contract value. Saturday's closest contract value is Wells, but Wells is larger meaning it favors the Packers. Neither really comes close to Flynn's contract which is where the 4th comes on.


That's my understanding as well.

I like this mock. Williams, after a little coaching, could be an absolute monster on the DL. HE has the potential to be the best DT in this class if he figures it out.

Da'Rick is a gamble, but I do like his skill-set and he has passed the "interview test" from what I've seen regarding his issues at Tennessee. He has WR1 potential.
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HyponGrey


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2012 6:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Christine Michael... Guess Starks taught us nothing

Also, I see Fiedo and Pugh switching rounds
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Terranimal


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 28, 2012 12:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

HyponGrey wrote:
Christine Michael... Guess Starks taught us nothing

Also, I see Fiedo and Pugh switching rounds


Might be. It's a bit unsettled lately with Mocks and Big Boards for slating and positioning the rounds. I said the same thing with CB Slay and RB Michael of possibly having to switch them around also. But am going for the basic idea here. Things will settle them self down and fall more into place once the Combine is done.
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