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justo's close games are lucky thread
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justo


Joined: 05 Aug 2012
Posts: 12950
PostPosted: Tue Nov 13, 2012 11:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tom Shean wrote:
Uhhh... Colts are 6-3 right now, you have them finishing 5-11?
Crap I worked backwards on those numbers but I double checked the rest now. Should be 7-9.
49ersfan wrote:
Falcons out of the playoffs? That's certainly a bold prediction (i know its mathematical, not your own personal prediction).
Right? Shocked Yeah I think they still make it in. They would have to have everything fall in place for not only them but the Buccaneers to pull that through.
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El ramster


Joined: 13 May 2008
Posts: 41116
PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2012 1:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts...for support rather than illumination.
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justo


Joined: 05 Aug 2012
Posts: 12950
PostPosted: Fri Nov 16, 2012 1:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Jacksonville (24.04) Houston (92.80) 68.76
Green Bay (100.57) Detroit (51.75) 48.82
Cincinnati (61.95) Kansas City (22.76) 39.19
Philadelphia (37.34) Washington (73.09) 35.75
Cleveland (49.23) Dallas (77.43) 28.20
Arizona (55.24) Atlanta (65.26) 10.02
New York Jets (58.67) St. Louis (67.40) 8.73
Miami (48.09) Buffalo (47.91) 00.18
Tampa Bay (75.53) Carolina(75.63) 00.10

0-1
Total: 48-23-1 (67.36%)
Decisive: 28-8 (77.78%)
Close: 20-15-1 (56.94%)
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justo


Joined: 05 Aug 2012
Posts: 12950
PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 6:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Jacksonville (24.04) Houston (92.80) 68.76
San Diego (47.07) Denver (105.24) 58.17
Indianapolis (44.29) New England (100.01) 55.72
Green Bay (100.57) Detroit (51.75) 48.82
Cincinnati (61.95) Kansas City (22.76) 39.19
Philadelphia (37.34) Washington (73.09) 35.75
Cleveland (49.23) Dallas (77.43) 28.20
New Orleans (67.21) Oakland (40.24) 26.97
Arizona (55.24) Atlanta (65.26) 10.02
New York Jets (58.67) St. Louis (67.40) 8.73
Miami (48.09) Buffalo (47.91) 00.18
Tampa Bay (75.53) Carolina(75.63) 00.10


6-3

Total: 54-25-1 (67.50%)
Decisive: 30-9 (76.93%)
Close: 24-16-1 (58.53%)
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iknowcool


Joined: 15 Apr 2009
Posts: 13165
PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 6:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Close games certainly don't seem to be all that lucky for us.
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justo


Joined: 05 Aug 2012
Posts: 12950
PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 8:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

iknowcool wrote:
Close games certainly don't seem to be all that lucky for us.

Lo siento. I know. It sucks. I have you guys favored like every week Laughing
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justo


Joined: 05 Aug 2012
Posts: 12950
PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 8:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Jacksonville (24.04) Houston (92.80) 68.76
San Diego (47.07) Denver (105.24) 58.17
Indianapolis (44.29) New England (100.01) 55.72
Green Bay (100.57) Detroit (51.75) 48.82
Cincinnati (61.95) Kansas City (22.76) 39.19
Philadelphia (37.34) Washington (73.09) 35.75
Cleveland (49.23) Dallas (77.43) 28.20
New Orleans (67.21) Oakland (40.24) 26.97
Arizona (55.24) Atlanta (65.26) 10.02
New York Jets (58.67) St. Louis (67.40) 8.73
Baltimore (60.31) Pittsburgh (55.47) 4.84
Miami (48.09) Buffalo (47.91) 00.18
Tampa Bay (75.53) Carolina(75.63) 00.10


9-3

Total: 57-25-1 (69.27%)
Decisive: 33-9 (78.57%)
Close: 24-16-1 (59.76%)
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justo


Joined: 05 Aug 2012
Posts: 12950
PostPosted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 1:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Jacksonville (24.04) Houston (92.80) 68.76
San Diego (47.07) Denver (105.24) 58.17
Indianapolis (44.29) New England (100.01) 55.72
Green Bay (100.57) Detroit (51.75) 48.82
Cincinnati (61.95) Kansas City (22.76) 39.19
Philadelphia (37.34) Washington (73.09) 35.75
Cleveland (49.23) Dallas (77.43) 28.20
New Orleans (67.21) Oakland (40.24) 26.97
Arizona (55.24) Atlanta (65.26) 10.02
New York Jets (58.67) St. Louis (67.40) 8.73
Chicago (77.25) San Francisco (82.19) 4.94
Baltimore (60.31) Pittsburgh (55.47) 4.84
Miami (48.09) Buffalo (47.91) 00.18
Tampa Bay (75.53) Carolina(75.63) 00.10


10-3

Total: 58-25-1 (69.64%)
Decisive: 33-9 (78.57%)
Close: 25-16-1 (60.71%)
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GaTechRavens


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Joined: 25 Nov 2006
Posts: 17493
Location: Madison, WI
PostPosted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 1:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Something is very wrong with this formula if Carolina is being favored over Tampa Bay.
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justo


Joined: 05 Aug 2012
Posts: 12950
PostPosted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 4:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

GaTechRavens wrote:
Something is very wrong with this formula if Carolina is being favored over Tampa Bay.


It was one of the closest "favors" so far this year and they took that game to OT...
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justo


Joined: 05 Aug 2012
Posts: 12950
PostPosted: Tue Nov 20, 2012 12:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Jacksonville (24.04) Houston (92.80) 68.76
San Diego (47.07) Denver (105.24) 58.17
Indianapolis (44.29) New England (100.01) 55.72
Green Bay (100.57) Detroit (51.75) 48.82
Cincinnati (61.95) Kansas City (22.76) 39.19
Philadelphia (37.34) Washington (73.09) 35.75
Cleveland (49.23) Dallas (77.43) 28.20
New Orleans (67.21) Oakland (40.24) 26.97
Arizona (55.24) Atlanta (65.26) 10.02
New York Jets (58.67) St. Louis (67.40) 8.73
Chicago (77.25) San Francisco (82.19) 4.94
Baltimore (60.31) Pittsburgh (55.47) 4.84
Miami (48.09) Buffalo (47.91) 00.18
Tampa Bay (75.53) Carolina(75.63) 00.10


11-3

Total: 59-25-1 (70.00%)
Decisive: 34-9 (79.07%)
Close: 25-16-1 (60.71%)
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justo


Joined: 05 Aug 2012
Posts: 12950
PostPosted: Tue Nov 20, 2012 1:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Adjusted Win Rate
1-2) 75.00 Green Bay, New England
3-6) 70.00 Denver, Houston, New York Giants, Tampa Bay
7-9) 65.00 Atlanta, Chicago, Seattle
10-11) 60.00 Baltimore, San Francisco
12-15) 55.00 Cincinnati, New Orleans, Pittsburgh, Washington
16-19) 50.00 Detroit, Miami, Minnesota, San Diego
20-21) 45.00 Dallas, New York Jets
22-26) 40.00 Arizona, Carolina, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Buffalo
27) 35.00 St. Louis
28-29) 30.00 Oakland, Tennessee
30) 25.00 Philadelphia
31) 20.00 Jacksonville
32) 15.00 Kansas City

Opponent Adjusted SOS
1) 30.82 Carolina
2) 29.18 St. Louis
3) 27.80 San Francisco
4) 27.76 Dallas
5) 27.31 Seattle
6) 26.86 Arizona
7) 26.47 New York Jets
8) 26.36 Denver
9) 26.13 Philadelphia
10) 26.10 Jacksonville
11) 25.85 New England
12) 25.74 Tennessee
13) 25.47 New York Giants
14) 25.46 Washington
15) 25.45 Buffalo
16) 25.44 Kansas City
17) 25.25 Green Bay
18) 24.99 Cleveland
19) 24.84 New Orleans
20) 24.47 Chicago
21) 24.31 Detroit
22) 24.17 Minnesota
23) 24.01 Oakland
24) 23.68 Houston
25) 23.66 Tampa Bay
26) 23.48 Cincinnati
27) 23.41 Indianapolis
28) 23.16 Pittsburgh
29) 23.12 San Diego
30) 22.62 Atlanta
31) 22.59 Baltimore
32) 22.03 Miami

SOS Adjusted Win Rate 2
1) 100.57 Denver
2) 97.94 New England
3) 94.70 Green Bay
4) 91.76 San Francisco
5) 91.45 Seattle
6) 87.37 New York Giants
7) 78.75 Houston
8) 77.68 Carolina
9) 74.54 Tampa Bay
10) 73.96 Chicago
11) 72.84 Washington
12) 71.20 Dallas
13) 67.64 New Orleans
14) 64.33 New York Jets
15) 62.51 Atlanta
16) 61.35 Cincinnati
17) 61.01 Baltimore
18) 59.24 St. Louis
19) 58.03 Arizona
20) 58.02 Minnesota
21) 57.98 Pittsburgh
22) 57.74 Detroit
23) 53.19 San Diego
24) 51.50 Cleveland
25) 50.91 Buffalo
26) 47.37 Miami
27) 44.02 Indianapolis
28) 42.09 Tennessee
29) 36.74 Oakland
30) 34.96 Philadelphia
31) 28.45 Jacksonville
32) 20.80 Kansas City

No promises that I will be able to update these live on Thanksgiving. I'll put what they are right now and edit them later. The team favored shouldn't change, only the number they are favored by. (Maybe Dallas/Washington?)
Quote:
New England (97.94) New York Jets (64.33) 33.61
Houston (78.75) Detroit (57.74) 11.01
Washington (72.84) Dallas (71.20) 00.64
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justo


Joined: 05 Aug 2012
Posts: 12950
PostPosted: Tue Nov 20, 2012 2:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

New England Patriots 7-3 (6-0) (13-3)
New York Jets 4-6 (5-1) (9-7)
Buffalo Bills 4-6 (3-3) (7-9)
Miami Dolphins 4-6 (1-5) (5-11)

Baltimore Ravens 8-2 (2-4) (10-6)
Cincinnati Bengals 5-5 (5-1) (10-6)
Pittsburgh Steelers 6-4 (3-3) (9-7)
Cleveland Browns 2-8 (2-4) (4-12)

Houston Texans 9-1 (5-1) (14-2)
Indianapolis Colts 6-4 (2-4) (8-8)
Tennessee Titans 4-6 (2-4) (6-10)
Jacksonville Jaguars 1-9 (0-6) (1-15)

Denver Broncos 7-3 (6-0) (13-3)
San Diego Chargers 4-6 (1-5) (5-11)
Oakland Raiders 3-7 (1-5) (4-12)
Kansas City Chiefs 1-9 (0-6) (1-15)

New York Giants 6-4 (5-1) (11-5)
Dallas Cowboys 5-5 (4-2) (9-7)
Washington Redskins 4-6 (5-1) (9-7)
Philadelphia Eagles 3-7 (0-6) (3-13)

Green Bay Packers 7-3 (6-0) (13-3)
Chicago Bears 7-3 (4-2) (11-5)
Minnesota Vikings 6-4 (0-6) (6-10)
Detroit Lions 4-6 (1-5) (5-11)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6-4 (5-1) (11-5)
Atlanta Falcons 9-1 (1-5) (10-6)
Carolina Panthers 2-8 (6-0) (8-8)
New Orleans Saints 5-5 (1-5) (6-10)

San Francisco 49ers 7-2-1 (5-1) (12-3-1)
Seattle Seahawks 6-4 (5-1) (11-5)
St. Louis 3-6-1 (3-3) (6-9-1)
Arizona 4-6 (1-5) (5-11)

AFC
1 Houston
2 New England
3 Denver
4 Baltimore
5 Cincinnati
6 Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh @ Denver
Cincinnati @ Baltimore

Cincinnati @ Houston
Denver @ New England

Denver @ Houston

NFC
1 Green Bay
2 San Francisco
3 New York Giants
4 Tampa Bay
5 Seattle
6 Chicago

Chicago @ New York Giants
Seattle @ Tampa Bay

Seattle @ Green Bay
New York Giants @ San Francisco

San Francisco @ Green Bay

SUPERB OWL:
Green Bay @ Denver
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UofMfan909


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Joined: 14 Feb 2007
Posts: 28500
Location: Michigan
PostPosted: Tue Nov 20, 2012 2:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Really would have a hard time seeing GB getting by SF and Seattle in back to back weeks. Other than that, looking pretty solid to me.
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Bears Are Legit


Joined: 24 Jan 2011
Posts: 677
Location: Super Bowl
PostPosted: Tue Nov 20, 2012 2:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is so cool, thanks for sharing. People keep trying to find ways to contest it but your weekly records are too telling to ignore.
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