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AFC Playoff Picture

 
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cddolphin


Joined: 23 Mar 2009
Posts: 6659
Location: Gainesville, FL
PostPosted: Wed Oct 31, 2012 3:44 am    Post subject: AFC Playoff Picture Reply with quote

I'll probably get crucified for this thread but if anything it's just a place to discuss how the playoff picture is looking. I'll update it regularly.

Division Leaders
Team // Overall Record // Div Record // Conference Record
1. Houston Texans // 7 - 1 // 2 - 0 // 7 - 0
2. Baltimore Ravens // 6 - 2 // 3 - 0 // 5 - 1
3. New England Patriots // 5 - 3 // 2 - 0 // 4 - 1
4. Denver Broncos // 5 - 3 // 2 - 0 // 4 - 2

Wildcard Teams
5. Indianapolis Colts // 5 - 3 // 1 - 1 // 3 - 2
6. Pittsburgh Steelers // 5 - 3 // 1 - 0 // 2 - 3

In the Hunt
Miami Dolphins // 4 - 4 // 1 - 1 // 3 - 3
San Diego Chargers // 4 - 4 // 3 - 1 // 4 - 2


Relevant Tiebreakers
Dolphins own tiebreaker over Steelers (Conf record)

Chargers own tiebreaker over Dolphins (Conf record)
Colts own tiebreaker over Dolphins (Head-to-Head)


Last edited by cddolphin on Mon Nov 05, 2012 12:49 am; edited 1 time in total
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cddolphin


Joined: 23 Mar 2009
Posts: 6659
Location: Gainesville, FL
PostPosted: Wed Oct 31, 2012 3:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The game this week against the Colts is the last non-division game against an AFC opponent with playoff aspirations (other AFC opponents being Jacksonville and Tennessee).
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ukdolfan


Joined: 06 Jan 2008
Posts: 8976
PostPosted: Wed Oct 31, 2012 6:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This week and both the Bills games will be big for our playoff chances. Take all three games and there is a great shot of at least a WC spot.
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cddolphin


Joined: 23 Mar 2009
Posts: 6659
Location: Gainesville, FL
PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2012 12:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bad news is we lost to the Colts. Good news is most other mid-tier AFC teams lost as well.
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phinmun


Joined: 29 Dec 2007
Posts: 2231
Location: South Carolina
PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2012 1:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

If we're going to make the Play-Offs we're going to have to win 2 games out of 4 that I'm worried about:

Seahawks, Patriots (Home), Patriots (Away) & 49ers.

I could see us beating the Seahawks in Miami but I doubt we beat Brady and that offense considering what our weakness is (pass rush). The 49ers are a complete team that should beat us in all phases. I doubt we win more than 1 out of those 4 games considering we might be over-achieving to win 1 at all.

Plus, will we beat the Bills twice? I doubt it. We're probably looking at splitting with the Jets and Bills and winding up with a 2-4 divisional record as sad as that sounds.
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WaterBear56


Joined: 26 Jul 2010
Posts: 3154
PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2012 1:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Week 10, Week 11, Week 15, Week 16
Titans, @Bills, Jaguars, Bills
Four winnable games, 3 of which are played at home and each set of two is back to back.

Week 12, Week 13, Week 14, Week 17
Seahawks, Patriots, @49ers, @Patriots
Four lose-able games, three of which are played straight but two of those are back to back home games.

Ideally we would win three of the winnable ones and lose 3 of the lose-able ones making us 8-8. We need to win one game we are supposed to lose to go to the playoffs.
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cddolphin


Joined: 23 Mar 2009
Posts: 6659
Location: Gainesville, FL
PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2012 4:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Seahawks and Patriots at home seem the two most likely to win.
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SUG


Joined: 15 May 2007
Posts: 6810
Location: Alameda, Ca
PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2012 8:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

cddolphin wrote:
Seahawks and Patriots at home seem the two most likely to win.


I don't want to get to far ahead of myself with next wk ends gm comin up but...
My GF & I watch the 9ers & her Div every wk as she is a rabid SF fan.
I'll tell ya what, Seattle is a good football team, they remind me alot of us. (only better WRs)

They can run - pass - play great Deff & they are a very physical.

We would have to play lights out football in 2 of the 3 phases to beat those guys at home.

sug
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Deadeye


Joined: 07 Apr 2008
Posts: 5991
Location: A Nearby Dolphin Encounter
PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2012 9:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Miami has no business being in the playoffs, and if we make it we'll get stomped exactly like in 2008. We do have a strong run defense, good special teams, and pretty good production from our rookie QB. But that is not enough. We need pass rush, guards, WR and TE. And by the time we get all that we'll need more LBs all over again.

Can we dispense with the playoff talk?
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TheKillerNacho


Joined: 10 Feb 2008
Posts: 9751
Location: Pennsylvania
PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2012 11:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The loss vs the Colts hurt our chances severely. The Patriots will almost certainly win the division, which means we're playing for a wildcard spot this year. The loss put is 1.5 games behind the Colts and I think its obvious that the Steelers/Ravens will lock up the other wildcard spot.

Realistically we need a 10-6 season to make the playoffs this year. Which means we need to go 6-2 from here on out... I don't see that happening, sadly.

Still, as I keep saying - I never expected playoffs this season. I didn't even expect us to be 4-4. I'm happy watching Ryan Tannehill develop and the team improving under Joe Philbin this year. I think we'll be ready for a serious run in 2013.

Deadeye wrote:
Miami has no business being in the playoffs, and if we make it we'll get stomped exactly like in 2008. We do have a strong run defense, good special teams, and pretty good production from our rookie QB. But that is not enough. We need pass rush, guards, WR and TE. And by the time we get all that we'll need more LBs all over again.

Can we dispense with the playoff talk?


You should've just linked Herm Edwards' playoff speech. Laughing
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Fender


Joined: 30 Oct 2010
Posts: 904
PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2012 12:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Deadeye wrote:
Miami has no business being in the playoffs, and if we make it we'll get stomped exactly like in 2008. We do have a strong run defense, good special teams, and pretty good production from our rookie QB. But that is not enough. We need pass rush, guards, WR and TE. And by the time we get all that we'll need more LBs all over again.

Can we dispense with the playoff talk?


Nah... im still rooting for a playoff game, even away and a loss - so what? There are not moral victories in missing playoffs just because were 'rebuilding'.

You dont pass up a night with Jessica Alba just because you wouldnt last very long!
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Mercury22


Most Valuable Poster (1st Ballot)

Joined: 23 Feb 2005
Posts: 12818
Location: the 50 yard line
PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2012 2:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't think we are a playoffs team, but I love the fact that we are half way through the season and we are even having the discussion.

My sense is that our fan base, at least on these boards, swings widly between hope and desperation. On weeks that we win, we overstate how well the rebuild is going, and on weeks when we lose we overstate the deficiencies of this team.


We lost by 3 points to a club that has more pieces in place than we do. No big deal. We hung in there, we fought hard and we now have the OPPORTUNITY to rebound. When we start looking at failings as opportunities to rebound as opposed to simple failing, we will be on the right path. Every team faces adversity, its how you respond to adversity that defines who you are. In the past we crumbled when we faced adversity, if Philbin knows what he's doing, and I believe he does, he will be selling this loss as an opportunity to turn things around. Don't let the loss define us, lets the rebound define us.
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phinmun


Joined: 29 Dec 2007
Posts: 2231
Location: South Carolina
PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2012 2:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fender wrote:
Deadeye wrote:
Miami has no business being in the playoffs, and if we make it we'll get stomped exactly like in 2008. We do have a strong run defense, good special teams, and pretty good production from our rookie QB. But that is not enough. We need pass rush, guards, WR and TE. And by the time we get all that we'll need more LBs all over again.

Can we dispense with the playoff talk?


Nah... im still rooting for a playoff game, even away and a loss - so what? There are not moral victories in missing playoffs just because were 'rebuilding'.

You dont pass up a night with Jessica Alba just because you wouldnt last very long!


Good point!


(And that's what she said)
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cddolphin


Joined: 23 Mar 2009
Posts: 6659
Location: Gainesville, FL
PostPosted: Tue Nov 06, 2012 1:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I know the Dolphins don't strike us as a team that "deserves" a playoff spot. But if we get there, I think it'd be great. I don't expect us to, but I hope we do.

Besides, even if we get smacked around in the first playoff game (a la 2008) that's still playoff environment experience for our young team.
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