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ZoomWaffle


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2012 11:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Baggabonez wrote:
ZoomWaffle wrote:
EDITED: for length

Pass rush > CBs


You are comparing the play of a unit which is affected by numerous variables v. the play of an individual. When a CB shuts his side of the field down his value is intrinsic. Just because his play doesn't produce tangible stats he wasn't easily "taken out of the game". Similar to the way a true NT doesn't produce tangible stats yet he makes everyone around him better if he does his job correctly.

That being said pass rush is always greater than CBs. However, what do you do when there isn't an edge rusher available? Reach on an edge rusher and pass on a transcendent player at CB? Stats are just a tool and rule of thumb is just a guideline. There are exceptions to the rule.

I'll try to make a better argument tomorrow as my wino alter ego has taken over.


LOL

Oh, you are absolutely right about individual CB stats. You cant use them to determine their impact, just look at Nnamdi all those years, but thats why I was using team stats. When Aso shut down one WR, the QBs just threw to everyone else- you'd think the predictability factor would work in our favor, but it never did and the team stats I provided show that. QBs completed like 53% of their passes with a 7.1 YPA when they stayed away from Nnamdi, but once he left QBs had the same exact level of success - the only difference is they threw to both sides. If you lock one guy down, the QB will just look for the greatest mismatches and advantages. When their other WRs are being covered by the likes of Lito Sheppard, they are going to go to those guys a lot because he cant even cover a #3 WR.

Look at some of the top CBs compared to their 2011 team pass defense rankings (in terms of QB rating):

Revis- 3rd
Aso- 19th
Samuel- 19th
Bailey- 28th
Talib- 29th

The Jets were the only team that had a top CB and a top pass defense. They are also the only one of those teams with a good #2 CB, so QBs cant just throw the ball to the other side all day long. NOTE- IDK what the hell Philly's excuse was- Nnamdi, Samuel and DRC and they still had a crap pass defense.

Thats not to say I dont want a shutdown CB, who wouldnt? But my point is we just wont get maximum value from a CB until we either get a decent CB on the other side, or a good pass rush. You can say thats not true, but we've already seen it for years. Now, you asked about passing on a transcendent CB in favor of a lower-caliber pass rusher. I agree with you there, never pass on a player you feel can become great, but if we pick top-10 odds are we can have a shot at an elite pass rusher and according to current rankings (its early, I know), no CBs come close to the top couple pass rushers in terms of value.
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oakdb36


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2012 11:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ZoomWaffle wrote:
oakdb36 wrote:
ZoomWaffle wrote:

Then why has nothing changed from when Aso was here?


The Raiders are a terrible example. They never used a dfiferent scheme to take advantage of their elite CB. They never rolled coverage opposite of him. They just left their FS right in the middle and let the other CB handle his WR one on one. They didn't even match him up with the opponent #1 WR (note that most teams play sides with their CBs but most teams don't have an Aso).
The Jets, for example, did and they got results from it.


I realize this, and thats why I made mention of it in my post. Obviously, you want your top CB on the top WR all game to limit his impact. However, look at the game logs from the past couple seasons- it was most often the #2 or slot WRs, TEs or RBs that did the most damage in the pass game. Even if the #1 was completely taken out, it seemed like we always gave up 80+ yards to a guy who has never cracked 500 in a season. Even if the top WR is locked down, you NEED someone who can at least hold their own on the other side. If I'm a QB and my top guy is covered by the best CB in the league, why throw to him when I can go after their other CB, who is awful? Thats what QBs do, they exploit your weaknesses.


That was the rest of my post. We didn't give help to our other players, we let them on an island just like our elite CB. Opponents regularly found a favorable one on one matchup and we let those matchups happen with our predictable defense.
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ZoomWaffle


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2012 11:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

oakdb36 wrote:
ZoomWaffle wrote:
oakdb36 wrote:
ZoomWaffle wrote:

Then why has nothing changed from when Aso was here?


The Raiders are a terrible example. They never used a dfiferent scheme to take advantage of their elite CB. They never rolled coverage opposite of him. They just left their FS right in the middle and let the other CB handle his WR one on one. They didn't even match him up with the opponent #1 WR (note that most teams play sides with their CBs but most teams don't have an Aso).
The Jets, for example, did and they got results from it.


I realize this, and thats why I made mention of it in my post. Obviously, you want your top CB on the top WR all game to limit his impact. However, look at the game logs from the past couple seasons- it was most often the #2 or slot WRs, TEs or RBs that did the most damage in the pass game. Even if the #1 was completely taken out, it seemed like we always gave up 80+ yards to a guy who has never cracked 500 in a season. Even if the top WR is locked down, you NEED someone who can at least hold their own on the other side. If I'm a QB and my top guy is covered by the best CB in the league, why throw to him when I can go after their other CB, who is awful? Thats what QBs do, they exploit your weaknesses.


That was the rest of my post. We didn't give help to our other players, we let them on an island just like our elite CB. Opponents regularly found a favorable one on one matchup and we let those matchups happen with our predictable defense.


Thats true, but if you look at other teams that didnt use that ancient defense, their results were the same. They allowed just as many yards, YPA, and completion % with a shutdown CB as they did they year prior to acquiring him. I'm sure with a non-Al Davuis scheme we would be in for better results, but I still think we would have a poor pass defense until we either get multiple good CBs, or a good pass rush. The Jets, for example, have 2 CBs capable of being left one-on-one almost every play, which leaves more options for the safeties and the rest of their D.
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oakdb36


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2012 12:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ZoomWaffle wrote:
They allowed just as many yards, YPA, and completion % with a shutdown CB as they did they year prior to acquiring him.


I just looked at the Jets and they were the best pass defense in the league in 2009. In 2008, they were 29th. What happened between 2008 and 2009 that could explain the improvement? Did they get more pressure? They had less sacks in 09 than in 08. Did they get better players in their secondary? They went from Ty Law to Lito Sheppard. The rest was basically the same.
Did Revis have his first "shutdown" year? Yes. Did they hire a new HC known for his creative defensive scheme? Yes.

PS: they had more sacks in 08 than they've had in any season since and yet they've never finished worse than 6th in the league in pass D.
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ZoomWaffle


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2012 1:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

oakdb36 wrote:
ZoomWaffle wrote:
They allowed just as many yards, YPA, and completion % with a shutdown CB as they did they year prior to acquiring him.


I just looked at the Jets and they were the best pass defense in the league in 2009. In 2008, they were 29th. What happened between 2008 and 2009 that could explain the improvement? Did they get more pressure? They had less sacks in 09 than in 08. Did they get better players in their secondary? They went from Ty Law to Lito Sheppard. The rest was basically the same.
Did Revis have his first "shutdown" year? Yes. Did they hire a new HC known for his creative defensive scheme? Yes.

PS: they had more sacks in 08 than they've had in any season since and yet they've never finished worse than 6th in the league in pass D.


Revis was a Pro-Bowler in 2008- he was already one of the better CBs in the league at that point. However, the Jets had no good #2 CB. Their #2 was Dwight Lowery- Ty Law was not only at the end of his career, but he only started 6 games that year. He was near-useless in 2008, so really they had nobody opposite Revis.

In 2009, they got Lito Sheppard who wasnt great but still better than Law at that point, and was just 2 years removed from the Pro-Bowl. They also replaced Abram Elam with Jim Leonhard- another upgrade. Bringing in Rex Ryan no doubt made a big difference, and so did Revis, but they also upgraded the #2 CB and FS spots.

IMO, Ryan had the biggest impact. He had long been a defensive guru with a history of leading great pass defenses. As the DC in Baltimore, his pass defenses ranked well. Here are the ranks and the starting CB:

2005- 8th Chris McCallister/Samari Rolle: Both good CBs
2006- 6th Chris McCallister/Samari Rolle: Both good CBs
2007- 20th Chris McCallister/Corey Ivey: One good CB, one bad CB.
2008- 2nd Fabian Washington/Samari Rolle: 2 decent CBs.

His best years came when he either had 2 good CBs, or two decent ones. His worst year by far came when he had a good CB and a bad one. Then in 2008, he had his best year with Washington, who was OK and Samari Rolle, who was past his prime, but both could hold their own and QBs couldnt exploit one or the other. Like the Jets in 2008, the Ravens in 2008 had the fewest sacks of Ryan's tenure, but their pass D ranked 2nd. I think that speaks volumes about Ryan's defenses and the value of two good CBs more so than the value of having a shut down CB without a decent option on the other side.

You can use Champ Bailey as an example, too. Look at the years when the #2 CB was someone like Perrish Cox or Andre Goodman- their pass D ranked 28th and 30th in terms of QB rating. To say this theory is completely wrong is innacurate. In terms of (theoretcially) taking the most dangerous WR out of the game it is valuable. But not when QBs avoid the top CBs, and instead throw those passes to the targets being covered by inferior defenders. Whether Dwayne Bowe gets 100 yards or those 100 yards get split up amongst Baldwin and McCluster, there is no difference in the amount of yards we are giving up.
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NickButera


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2012 1:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ZoomWaffle wrote:

Look at some of the top [b] CBs compared to their 2011 team pass defense rankings (in terms of QB rating):

Revis- 3rd
Aso- 19th
Samuel- 19th
Bailey- 28th
Talib- 29th

The Jets were the only team that had a top CB and a top pass defense. They are also the only one of those teams with a good #2 CB, so QBs cant just throw the ball to the other side all day long. NOTE- IDK what the hell Philly's excuse was- Nnamdi, Samuel and DRC and they still had a crap pass defense.


Not that I don't disagree with you... but this is flawed. That list is very carefully selected list of who's considered a "top cornerback". Flowers, Jonathan Joseph, Ike Taylor, Finnegan, maybe even Brent Grimes and Patrick Peterson nowadays.

However also, Revis is by himself, he is pretty much the undisputed best Corner in the league, and it shoes with their pass defense. Everyone else has to be grouped together.

Pitt, Houston and the Jets all had "top CB's" and had top 5 passing defenses. Kansas City was up there as well. Not sure that opponents QB Ranking is the best way to measure a teams pass defense, that's very selective towards your argument and doesn't tell the whole story, ie: Philly had a pretty decent passing offense last year too in yards but not so much in TD's..... and why do Samuel and Aso have different "2011 team passing defense" ranks? They were both on the Eagles in 2011.
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JTagg7754


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2012 2:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NickButera wrote:


However also, Revis is by himself, he is pretty much the undisputed best Corner in the league, and it shoes with their pass defense. Everyone else has to be grouped together.


This is true. And he went down and the defense didn't miss a beat. I don't see how there's any other evidence to show that the value of a CB is all it's cracked up to be.

Like someone said earlier last page, we don't need "great" CBs. We need a couple good ones. We can find those all over the draft board and save some money and get good results.
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ZoomWaffle


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2012 2:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NickButera wrote:
ZoomWaffle wrote:

Look at some of the top [b] CBs compared to their 2011 team pass defense rankings (in terms of QB rating):

Revis- 3rd
Aso- 19th
Samuel- 19th
Bailey- 28th
Talib- 29th

The Jets were the only team that had a top CB and a top pass defense. They are also the only one of those teams with a good #2 CB, so QBs cant just throw the ball to the other side all day long. NOTE- IDK what the hell Philly's excuse was- Nnamdi, Samuel and DRC and they still had a crap pass defense.


Not that I don't disagree with you... but this is flawed. That list is very carefully selected list of who's considered a "top cornerback". Flowers, Jonathan Joseph, Ike Taylor, Finnegan, maybe even Brent Grimes and Patrick Peterson nowadays.

However also, Revis is by himself, he is pretty much the undisputed best Corner in the league, and it shoes with their pass defense. Everyone else has to be grouped together.

Pitt, Houston and the Jets all had "top CB's" and had top 5 passing defenses. Kansas City was up there as well. Not sure that opponents QB Ranking is the best way to measure a teams pass defense, that's very selective towards your argument and doesn't tell the whole story, ie: Philly had a pretty decent passing offense last year too in yards but not so much in TD's..... and why do Samuel and Aso have different "2011 team passing defense" ranks? They were both on the Eagles in 2011.


Right, but Taylor and Joseph are on teams with a great pass rush, which plays a huge factor. Flowers was tag teamed with Carr (same argument I'm using for Revis), and the Cardinals were 13th and Titans 18th, so its not like that proves against my point by leaving Peterson or Finnegan off the list. Peterson is a shutdown CB but without another decent CB, their pass defense is nothing special. The CBs I listed were on teams w/o another good CB to man the other side (aside from the Jets, which I listed as a reference to that point).

Aso and Samuel have the same ranking- 19th. I just listed them seperately since they are both top CBs. They are an anomolly anyway (and neither support nor contradict my argument). How can a team colect 50 sacks, and have 3 good CBs and still perform so bad?

I actually think QB rating is the absolute best stat to use. I chose QB rating because that gives the best picture of how well opposing QBs faired against them, as it combines yards, YPA, TD, INT and completion % all in one neat number. If I used only yards, that could be totally skewed by how much teams threw based on run game effectiveness, were they winning or losing in a blowout, etc. If I used only completion percentage, it wouldnt take yards, TDs or INTs into consideration. I honestly think QB rating tells the most of any other stat you can find for this argument.
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Last edited by ZoomWaffle on Wed Oct 10, 2012 2:20 pm; edited 2 times in total
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ZoomWaffle


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2012 2:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

JTagg7754 wrote:
NickButera wrote:


However also, Revis is by himself, he is pretty much the undisputed best Corner in the league, and it shoes with their pass defense. Everyone else has to be grouped together.


This is true. And he went down and the defense didn't miss a beat. I don't see how there's any other evidence to show that the value of a CB is all it's cracked up to be.

Like someone said earlier last page, we don't need "great" CBs. We need a couple good ones. We can find those all over the draft board and save some money and get good results.


+1

Going by QB rating, teams with "shutdown CBs" ranked 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 7th, 13th, 14th, 18th, 19th, 28th, and 29th in 2011. Thats a wide range. Look at the top 3 of those- those defenses are all-around some of the best in the league- HOU, PIT, NYJ. The #3 and #7 teams had a second good CB to pair with their shutdown guy. After that, you are left with the 13th, 14th, 18th, 19th, 28th and 29th as teams with shutdown CBs that lack either a second good CB or a good all-around D to help out.
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2012 10:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ZoomWaffle wrote:

Thats not to say I dont want a shutdown CB, who wouldnt? But my point is we just wont get maximum value from a CB until we either get a decent CB on the other side, or a good pass rush. You can say thats not true, but we've already seen it for years. Now, you asked about passing on a transcendent CB in favor of a lower-caliber pass rusher. I agree with you there, never pass on a player you feel can become great, but if we pick top-10 odds are we can have a shot at an elite pass rusher and according to current rankings (its early, I know), no CBs come close to the top couple pass rushers in terms of value.


For me this is progress because I absolutely agree with the majority of what you wrote. Where we differ is that I don't a 43 OLB that can put his hand in the dirt on passing downs a la Wimbley except Mingo. Mingo is having a down season and he is severely undersized but he does possess ridiculous quickness. I've seen some of his rSo tape and it is impressive. Provided he is healthy he could he a worthy gamble but other than him I would probably trade back a few spots and draft Milliner and either Carradine or Gholston. Same difference, imo. Mingo or Milliner/Carradine
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ZoomWaffle


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2012 10:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Baggabonez wrote:
ZoomWaffle wrote:

Thats not to say I dont want a shutdown CB, who wouldnt? But my point is we just wont get maximum value from a CB until we either get a decent CB on the other side, or a good pass rush. You can say thats not true, but we've already seen it for years. Now, you asked about passing on a transcendent CB in favor of a lower-caliber pass rusher. I agree with you there, never pass on a player you feel can become great, but if we pick top-10 odds are we can have a shot at an elite pass rusher and according to current rankings (its early, I know), no CBs come close to the top couple pass rushers in terms of value.


For me this is progress because I absolutely agree with the majority of what you wrote. Where we differ is that I don't a 43 OLB that can put his hand in the dirt on passing downs a la Wimbley except Mingo. Mingo is having a down season and he is severely undersized but he does possess ridiculous quickness. I've seen some of his rSo tape and it is impressive. Provided he is healthy he could he a worthy gamble but other than him I would probably trade back a few spots and draft Milliner and either Carradine or Gholston. Same difference, imo. Mingo or Milliner/Carradine


Mingo would be nice, if Jones can play 4-3 OLB then he would be great, too. I'm not totally against CB in the 1st, just if we are picking top-10 in which case I want QB, pass rusher, or trade back. If we do trade back and go CB, I would be OK as long as the dude is a playmaker. We haven't had a ballhawking CB in ages.
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2012 8:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ZoomWaffle wrote:
Baggabonez wrote:
ZoomWaffle wrote:

Thats not to say I dont want a shutdown CB, who wouldnt? But my point is we just wont get maximum value from a CB until we either get a decent CB on the other side, or a good pass rush. You can say thats not true, but we've already seen it for years. Now, you asked about passing on a transcendent CB in favor of a lower-caliber pass rusher. I agree with you there, never pass on a player you feel can become great, but if we pick top-10 odds are we can have a shot at an elite pass rusher and according to current rankings (its early, I know), no CBs come close to the top couple pass rushers in terms of value.


For me this is progress because I absolutely agree with the majority of what you wrote. Where we differ is that I don't a 43 OLB that can put his hand in the dirt on passing downs a la Wimbley except Mingo. Mingo is having a down season and he is severely undersized but he does possess ridiculous quickness. I've seen some of his rSo tape and it is impressive. Provided he is healthy he could he a worthy gamble but other than him I would probably trade back a few spots and draft Milliner and either Carradine or Gholston. Same difference, imo. Mingo or Milliner/Carradine


Mingo would be nice, if Jones can play 4-3 OLB then he would be great, too. I'm not totally against CB in the 1st, just if we are picking top-10 in which case I want QB, pass rusher, or trade back. If we do trade back and go CB, I would be OK as long as the dude is a playmaker. We haven't had a ballhawking CB in ages.

MIA looks like the best trade partner. Maybe get 2nd, 3rd and something else. As at stands now not many blue chip players anyways that we would be able to get. They will likely want to move up to get some playmakers around Tannehill. They have a ton of picks.
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2012 8:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

JTagg7754 wrote:
NickButera wrote:


However also, Revis is by himself, he is pretty much the undisputed best Corner in the league, and it shoes with their pass defense. Everyone else has to be grouped together.


This is true. And he went down and the defense didn't miss a beat. I don't see how there's any other evidence to show that the value of a CB is all it's cracked up to be.

Like someone said earlier last page, we don't need "great" CBs. We need a couple good ones. We can find those all over the draft board and save some money and get good results.


It was one week. Is it sustainable? Plenty of teams have gotten by with a star player going down, but it's only a matter of time before teams figure out how to expose the void. But let's not pretend the Jets don't have depth at the position. Kyle Wilson was a 1st round pick and highly touted out of Boise.
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2012 9:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

big_palooka wrote:
JTagg7754 wrote:
NickButera wrote:


However also, Revis is by himself, he is pretty much the undisputed best Corner in the league, and it shoes with their pass defense. Everyone else has to be grouped together.


This is true. And he went down and the defense didn't miss a beat. I don't see how there's any other evidence to show that the value of a CB is all it's cracked up to be.

Like someone said earlier last page, we don't need "great" CBs. We need a couple good ones. We can find those all over the draft board and save some money and get good results.


It was one week. Is it sustainable? Plenty of teams have gotten by with a star player going down, but it's only a matter of time before teams figure out how to expose the void. But let's not pretend the Jets don't have depth at the position. Kyle Wilson was a 1st round pick and highly touted out of Boise.


But this is the "best defensive player in the league" by some. This isn't just some "great player" this is the elite, top tier by some.. and the Texans have a pretty good passing attack. Hell, the Jets might've played their best game on pass D all season after Revis left. I like Wilson too but let's be serious, he's not Revis in terms of coverage ability.

Revis = overrated in terms of what he does for his team and the CB position itself is extremely overrated. I'm having trouble finding an argument that supports it even after a year of me throwing this down people's throats. Some are starting to realize it though Smile
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2012 9:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

JTagg7754 wrote:
big_palooka wrote:
JTagg7754 wrote:
NickButera wrote:


However also, Revis is by himself, he is pretty much the undisputed best Corner in the league, and it shoes with their pass defense. Everyone else has to be grouped together.


This is true. And he went down and the defense didn't miss a beat. I don't see how there's any other evidence to show that the value of a CB is all it's cracked up to be.

Like someone said earlier last page, we don't need "great" CBs. We need a couple good ones. We can find those all over the draft board and save some money and get good results.


It was one week. Is it sustainable? Plenty of teams have gotten by with a star player going down, but it's only a matter of time before teams figure out how to expose the void. But let's not pretend the Jets don't have depth at the position. Kyle Wilson was a 1st round pick and highly touted out of Boise.


But this is the "best defensive player in the league" by some. This isn't just some "great player" this is the elite, top tier by some.. and the Texans have a pretty good passing attack. Hell, the Jets might've played their best game on pass D all season after Revis left. I like Wilson too but let's be serious, he's not Revis in terms of coverage ability.

Revis = overrated in terms of what he does for his team and the CB position itself is extremely overrated. I'm having trouble finding an argument that supports it even after a year of me throwing this down people's throats. Some are starting to realize it though Smile


I hear what you are saying and agree for the most part. I will take a disruptive pass rusher any day over the 'elite' CB.

But you can't argue with a guy like Charles Woodson who is a disruptive CB. He's a rare breed of CB who has that nose for the ball not just in the air. He's a turnover creator. But again, rare quality at CB.

I also look at the Giants who can rush the passer, but have issues in the secondary.

So what's the right blend? Give me an example of what you would look for in a CB given a strong pass rush.
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