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justo's close games are lucky thread
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TheVillain112


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2012 11:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pack4life7 wrote:
Lol Justis wasn't it Waldo who postulated something very similar to this after our fluky 6-10 2008 season?


IIRC Waldo posted his analysis and Justo mentioned how he had a very similar formula in that thread. I know he's mentioned his formula before, so I don't get why people are jumping all over him claiming Packer bias.

justo wrote:
Bengals (50) @ Browns (30)


tbh, with Haden back I'm really worried about this game. For some reason Whitworth seems to play his worst against the Browns...
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Pack4life7


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2012 12:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

My mistake then.
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Flaccomania


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2012 12:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I love these types of threads. I miss Waldo's lists. Great job, justo.

As another poster mentioned, though, it does tend to favor more offensive teams than defensive teams, though I understand the emphasis on 8 points due to it being a 1 possession game. I wouldn't really know how to factor that out, though.
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Kellerman


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2012 12:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Interesting write-up, the final 'power ranking' you come up with seems pretty accurate.

That said, you should really find a way to incorporate strength of schedule. To me, it's one of the more telling stats in finding overrated/underrated teams. Like the 2010 Bucs that went from 10-6 to 4-12, from a weak to a strong schedule.

In the case of the Vikings, they have only played one really good team (49ers), so I'd hesitate to put them in the top-6, or even in the top-10 at this point.
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RainbowCarebear


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2012 12:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Interesting. But I believe, good teams find ways to win. And I like you better TAET.
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justo


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2012 1:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TheVillain112 wrote:
Pack4life7 wrote:
Lol Justis wasn't it Waldo who postulated something very similar to this after our fluky 6-10 2008 season?


IIRC Waldo posted his analysis and Justo mentioned how he had a very similar formula in that thread. I know he's mentioned his formula before, so I don't get why people are jumping all over him claiming Packer bias.

justo wrote:
Bengals (50) @ Browns (30)


tbh, with Haden back I'm really worried about this game. For some reason Whitworth seems to play his worst against the Browns...


I think Waldo did it during our SB run and stated that we hadn't lost a non-close game and were doing it at an amazing rate. Only the Ravens came close to us during that stretch. I'm not sure if he did it this way and I totally forgot the thread TBH. Me and Waldo have a lot of the same beliefs about football though and he's for sure influenced the way I see the game.

I don't want people to think that I'm doing this out of bias at all. I really like to think I'm an objective fan that roots for the Packers
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justo


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2012 1:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Flaccomania wrote:
I love these types of threads. I miss Waldo's lists. Great job, justo.

As another poster mentioned, though, it does tend to favor more offensive teams than defensive teams, though I understand the emphasis on 8 points due to it being a 1 possession game. I wouldn't really know how to factor that out, though.


Agreed. Like a lot of the problems people have brought up in this thread though...how am I going to fix that? You can't really. I think I'm going to try my hand in a SOS ranking today
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justo


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2012 2:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Strength of schedule (add all teams opponents' adjusted win % and divide by # of teams) Average will be around 50

1) Tennessee 68
2) Dallas 65
3) Jacksonville 63.5
4) Denver 61
5) Carolina 60
6) St. Louis 58
7) Green Bay 57.5, Indianapolis 57.5
9) San Diego 56, New York Jets 56, Kansas City 56, Arizona 56
13) Oakland 55
14) Washington 54
15) Cleveland 52, Philadelphia 52, San Francisco 52
18) Miami 49
19) Detroit 47.5
20) Tampa Bay 46.25
21) Buffalo 46, Atlanta 46, New Orleans 46
24) Seattle 45
25) New England 44, Baltimore 44
27) Cincinnati 42
28) Pittsburgh 41.25
29) Chicago 38.5
30) New York Giants 37
31) Houston 36
32) Minnesota 35.5
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justo


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2012 3:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Adjusted win percentage with added SOS (adjusted win % x adjusted win % of opponents) Average will be around 25

1) Denver 36.6
2) New England 35.2
3) Green Bay 34.5
4) San Diego 33.6
5) Atlanta 32.2
6) San Francisco 31.2
7) Chicago 30.8
8) St. Louis 29
9) Houston 28.8
10) Arizona 28
11) Washington 27, Seattle 27
13) Baltimore 26.4
14) New York Giants 25.9
15) Minnesota 24.85
16) Miami 24.5
17) Carolina 24
18) Detroit 23.75
19) Tampa Bay 23.125
20) New Orleans 23
21) New York Jets 22.4
22) Indianapolis 21.5625
23) Cincinnati 21
24) Philadelphia 20.8
25) Pittsburgh 20.625
26) Buffalo 18.4
27) Dallas 16.25
28) Cleveland 15.6
29) Oakland 13.75
30) Jacksonville 12.7
31) Kansas City 11.2
32) Tennessee 6.8
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El ramster


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2012 3:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

6th SOS Bawsss.
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justo


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2012 3:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Picks using Adjusted win % with SOS
Steelers (20.625) @ Titans (6.8)
Chiefs (11.2) @ Buccaneers (23.125)
Colts (21.5625) @ Jets (22.4)
Bengals (21) @ Browns (15.6)
Lions (23.75) @ Eagles (20.8)
Raiders (13.75) @ Falcons (32.2)
Rams (29) @ Dolphins (24.5)
Cowboys (16.25) @ Ravens (26.4)
Bills (18.4) @ Cardinals (28)
Patriots (35.2) @ Seahawks (27)
Giants (25.9) @ 49ers (31.2)
Vikings (24.85) @ Redskins (27)
Packers (34.5) @ Texans (28.8)
Broncos (36.6) @ Chargers (33.6)
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justo


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2012 3:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Basic win/loss stand alone: Colts, Eagles, Seahawks

Adjusted win/loss stand alone: Dolphins, Giants

SOS Adjusted win/loss stand alone: Redskins, Packers, Broncos

Basic win/loss and Adjusted win/loss Stand alone: Vikings, Texans, Chargers

Basic win/loss and SOS Adjusted win/loss stand alone: Rams, 49ers

Adjusted win loss and SOS Adjusted win/loss stand alone: Jets, Lions, Patriots

All three: Steelers, Buccaneers, Bengals, Falcons, Ravens, Cardinals
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khodder


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2012 3:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Does this not discount that a lot of the time good teams come through in close games?

For isntance Arizona is 11-6 over the past season plus 5 games in games decided by 7 or less points. That is 10-2 over their last 16 games.

They are 5-0 in their last 5 OT games.

Does that indicate that they are just the luckiest team ever known to man, or maybe, maybe they are just good in close games.
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justo


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2012 4:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Do I think some teams come through in big games because of talent? Not really unless you are the Patriots. Here are the head coaches of the AFC and their records in close games over their career:

Chan Gailey 4-3, 2-6, 3-6, 3-5, 0-0
Joe Philbin 1-2
Bill Belichek 4-7, 2-4, 3-5, 5-3, 3-5, 4-9, 4-3, 5-3, 9-1, 4-1, 5-2, 5-2, 4-0, 3-2, 3-5, 5-0, 4-3, 0-2
Rex Ryan 3-5, 6-2, 3-2, 1-1
John Harbaugh 1-3, 3-5, 8-4, 5-2, 4-1
Marvin Lewis 7-5, 4-5, 5-2, 3-6, 3-5, 2-3-1, 6-3, 2-8, 5-6, 2-1
Pat Shurmur 3-6, 0-3
Mike Tomlin 3-4, 6-2, 5-7, 6-2, 6-2, 1-1
Gary Kubiak 4-4, 2-4, 5-4, 5-6, 3-5, 4-4, 1-1
Chuck Pagano 1-1
Mike Mularkey 2-4, 1-5, 1-1
Mike Munchak 5-3, 1-0
John Fox 4-5, 9-3, 1-5, 4-3, 5-4, 4-3, 5-1, 3-2, 1-2, 8-2, 0-2
Romeo Crennel 4-5, 4-5, 8-5, 3-7, 2-1, 1-2
Dennis Allen 1-1
Norv Turner 1-9, 4-7, 4-4, 3-4-1, 4-4, 4-3, 4-6, 4-6, 2-4, 2-2, 2-7, 8-1, 3-5, 3-5, 1-1

While compiling this data you can see so many teams winning all the close games they had that year to start and then "crash" when their close game record evened out. (Ex: Jet's Favre season) You can see year to year "crashes" too like the Chargers team that went 8-1 in close games the year before to only total wins the next. I think close games are pretty much luck. If a team is good they don't win close games usually. They win by more than 8 points and if they lose they lose close. The last thing we should think is "hey he's good in close games so he's a good coach" TBH unless his name is Bill and he wears a hoodie.

EDIT: Also I might rename this the "Norv Turned isn't the worst coach in the history of the NFL thread" based on those numbers Shocked
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khodder


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2012 5:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

justo wrote:
Do I think some teams come through in big games because of talent? Not really unless you are the Patriots. Here are the head coaches of the AFC and their records in close games over their career:

Chan Gailey 4-3, 2-6, 3-6, 3-5, 0-0
Joe Philbin 1-2
Bill Belichek 4-7, 2-4, 3-5, 5-3, 3-5, 4-9, 4-3, 5-3, 9-1, 4-1, 5-2, 5-2, 4-0, 3-2, 3-5, 5-0, 4-3, 0-2
Rex Ryan 3-5, 6-2, 3-2, 1-1
John Harbaugh 1-3, 3-5, 8-4, 5-2, 4-1
Marvin Lewis 7-5, 4-5, 5-2, 3-6, 3-5, 2-3-1, 6-3, 2-8, 5-6, 2-1
Pat Shurmur 3-6, 0-3
Mike Tomlin 3-4, 6-2, 5-7, 6-2, 6-2, 1-1
Gary Kubiak 4-4, 2-4, 5-4, 5-6, 3-5, 4-4, 1-1
Chuck Pagano 1-1
Mike Mularkey 2-4, 1-5, 1-1
Mike Munchak 5-3, 1-0
John Fox 4-5, 9-3, 1-5, 4-3, 5-4, 4-3, 5-1, 3-2, 1-2, 8-2, 0-2
Romeo Crennel 4-5, 4-5, 8-5, 3-7, 2-1, 1-2
Dennis Allen 1-1
Norv Turner 1-9, 4-7, 4-4, 3-4-1, 4-4, 4-3, 4-6, 4-6, 2-4, 2-2, 2-7, 8-1, 3-5, 3-5, 1-1

While compiling this data you can see so many teams winning all the close games they had that year to start and then "crash" when their close game record evened out. (Ex: Jet's Favre season) You can see year to year "crashes" too like the Chargers team that went 8-1 in close games the year before to only total wins the next. I think close games are pretty much luck. If a team is good they don't win close games usually. They win by more than 8 points and if they lose they lose close. The last thing we should think is "hey he's good in close games so he's a good coach" TBH unless his name is Bill and he wears a hoodie.

EDIT: Also I might rename this the "Norv Turned isn't the worst coach in the history of the NFL thread" based on those numbers Shocked


Over his career as a Head Coach in Arizona Ken Whisenhunt is 31-19 in games decided by 8 or less points, a .620 winning percentage.

According to your theory over the next 5 seasons Ariozna will lose 12 more "close" games than they win?
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