justo's close games are lucky thread

[TheVillain112]

[Pack4life7]

My mistake then.
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Ted brought us Clay

[Flaccomania]

I love these types of threads. I miss Waldo's lists. Great job, justo.

As another poster mentioned, though, it does tend to favor more offensive teams than defensive teams, though I understand the emphasis on 8 points due to it being a 1 possession game. I wouldn't really know how to factor that out, though.
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Why not Michael Jordan?

[Kellerman]

Interesting write-up, the final 'power ranking' you come up with seems pretty accurate.

That said, you should really find a way to incorporate strength of schedule. To me, it's one of the more telling stats in finding overrated/underrated teams. Like the 2010 Bucs that went from 10-6 to 4-12, from a weak to a strong schedule.

In the case of the Vikings, they have only played one really good team (49ers), so I'd hesitate to put them in the top-6, or even in the top-10 at this point.
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sig by Jamison
#97 Everson Griffin: 0 tackles : 0 sacks : 0 FF

[RainbowCarebear]

Interesting. But I believe, good teams find ways to win. And I like you better TAET.
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"Of gold and silver and gemstones, it had none; bronze and iron were the metals of winter"
"He is part of you, Robb. To fear him is to fear you."
"These are northmen, Uncle. The north remembers."

[justo]

[justo]

[justo]

Strength of schedule (add all teams opponents' adjusted win % and divide by # of teams) Average will be around 50

1) Tennessee 68
2) Dallas 65
3) Jacksonville 63.5
4) Denver 61
5) Carolina 60
6) St. Louis 58
7) Green Bay 57.5, Indianapolis 57.5
9) San Diego 56, New York Jets 56, Kansas City 56, Arizona 56
13) Oakland 55
14) Washington 54
15) Cleveland 52, Philadelphia 52, San Francisco 52
18) Miami 49
19) Detroit 47.5
20) Tampa Bay 46.25
21) Buffalo 46, Atlanta 46, New Orleans 46
24) Seattle 45
25) New England 44, Baltimore 44
27) Cincinnati 42
28) Pittsburgh 41.25
29) Chicago 38.5
30) New York Giants 37
31) Houston 36
32) Minnesota 35.5
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[justo]

Adjusted win percentage with added SOS (adjusted win % x adjusted win % of opponents) Average will be around 25

1) Denver 36.6
2) New England 35.2
3) Green Bay 34.5
4) San Diego 33.6
5) Atlanta 32.2
6) San Francisco 31.2
7) Chicago 30.8
8) St. Louis 29
9) Houston 28.8
10) Arizona 28
11) Washington 27, Seattle 27
13) Baltimore 26.4
14) New York Giants 25.9
15) Minnesota 24.85
16) Miami 24.5
17) Carolina 24
18) Detroit 23.75
19) Tampa Bay 23.125
20) New Orleans 23
21) New York Jets 22.4
22) Indianapolis 21.5625
23) Cincinnati 21
24) Philadelphia 20.8
25) Pittsburgh 20.625
26) Buffalo 18.4
27) Dallas 16.25
28) Cleveland 15.6
29) Oakland 13.75
30) Jacksonville 12.7
31) Kansas City 11.2
32) Tennessee 6.8
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[El ramster]

6th SOS Bawsss.
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[justo]

Picks using Adjusted win % with SOS
Steelers (20.625) @ Titans (6.8)
Chiefs (11.2) @ Buccaneers (23.125)
Colts (21.5625) @ Jets (22.4)
Bengals (21) @ Browns (15.6)
Lions (23.75) @ Eagles (20.8)
Raiders (13.75) @ Falcons (32.2)
Rams (29) @ Dolphins (24.5)
Cowboys (16.25) @ Ravens (26.4)
Bills (18.4) @ Cardinals (28)
Patriots (35.2) @ Seahawks (27)
Giants (25.9) @ 49ers (31.2)
Vikings (24.85) @ Redskins (27)
Packers (34.5) @ Texans (28.8)
Broncos (36.6) @ Chargers (33.6)
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[justo]

Basic win/loss stand alone: Colts, Eagles, Seahawks

Adjusted win/loss stand alone: Dolphins, Giants

SOS Adjusted win/loss stand alone: Redskins, Packers, Broncos

Basic win/loss and Adjusted win/loss Stand alone: Vikings, Texans, Chargers

Basic win/loss and SOS Adjusted win/loss stand alone: Rams, 49ers

Adjusted win loss and SOS Adjusted win/loss stand alone: Jets, Lions, Patriots

All three: Steelers, Buccaneers, Bengals, Falcons, Ravens, Cardinals
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[khodder]

Does this not discount that a lot of the time good teams come through in close games?

For isntance Arizona is 11-6 over the past season plus 5 games in games decided by 7 or less points. That is 10-2 over their last 16 games.

They are 5-0 in their last 5 OT games.

Does that indicate that they are just the luckiest team ever known to man, or maybe, maybe they are just good in close games.
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Patrick Peterson - 92 targets, 40 catches allowed, 602 yards, 6 TD's, 7 INT's

The Big Brain am winning again, I am the Greetest.

[justo]

Do I think some teams come through in big games because of talent? Not really unless you are the Patriots. Here are the head coaches of the AFC and their records in close games over their career:

Chan Gailey 4-3, 2-6, 3-6, 3-5, 0-0
Joe Philbin 1-2
Bill Belichek 4-7, 2-4, 3-5, 5-3, 3-5, 4-9, 4-3, 5-3, 9-1, 4-1, 5-2, 5-2, 4-0, 3-2, 3-5, 5-0, 4-3, 0-2
Rex Ryan 3-5, 6-2, 3-2, 1-1
John Harbaugh 1-3, 3-5, 8-4, 5-2, 4-1
Marvin Lewis 7-5, 4-5, 5-2, 3-6, 3-5, 2-3-1, 6-3, 2-8, 5-6, 2-1
Pat Shurmur 3-6, 0-3
Mike Tomlin 3-4, 6-2, 5-7, 6-2, 6-2, 1-1
Gary Kubiak 4-4, 2-4, 5-4, 5-6, 3-5, 4-4, 1-1
Chuck Pagano 1-1
Mike Mularkey 2-4, 1-5, 1-1
Mike Munchak 5-3, 1-0
John Fox 4-5, 9-3, 1-5, 4-3, 5-4, 4-3, 5-1, 3-2, 1-2, 8-2, 0-2
Romeo Crennel 4-5, 4-5, 8-5, 3-7, 2-1, 1-2
Dennis Allen 1-1
Norv Turner 1-9, 4-7, 4-4, 3-4-1, 4-4, 4-3, 4-6, 4-6, 2-4, 2-2, 2-7, 8-1, 3-5, 3-5, 1-1

While compiling this data you can see so many teams winning all the close games they had that year to start and then "crash" when their close game record evened out. (Ex: Jet's Favre season) You can see year to year "crashes" too like the Chargers team that went 8-1 in close games the year before to only total wins the next. I think close games are pretty much luck. If a team is good they don't win close games usually. They win by more than 8 points and if they lose they lose close. The last thing we should think is "hey he's good in close games so he's a good coach" TBH unless his name is Bill and he wears a hoodie.

EDIT: Also I might rename this the "Norv Turned isn't the worst coach in the history of the NFL thread" based on those numbers
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[khodder]