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49ers receivers with highest drop rate in the league..again
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oldman9er


Joined: 24 Oct 2006
Posts: 39986
PostPosted: Sat Oct 06, 2012 12:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

big9erfan wrote:

I don't get why people are reluctant to accept this, or looking for odd explanations.


People want Ck7 in real bad... and will color things however they need to in a pointless attempt to get everyone in their corner on this. You know this.

Props to YOU, sir.. because I remember well how much you liked Ck7... but you are choosing to be intellectually honest about the situation despite that. Cool
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SoCalNiner


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 06, 2012 1:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

oldman9er wrote:
Same old same old. Those that never liked Alex will make a thousand excuses for why he is at fault. Those on the other side will put the blame on the others. Back and forth.. perspective is fascinating. Honesty is lacking.

Anyway, MY perspective after watching every damn play over and over and on slo-mo... Rio ran a sloppy route and stuck his paw out lazily for one down the right sideline. No excuse for a pro receiver to do that. Wasted motion on his route and still didn't get off the ground or stick both hands out for the ball. There was another deep left sideline to Rio.. and he was more interested in fighting the CB and trying to get a PI call than to just focus on the damn ball.

The deep left sideline to Crabtree? Yeah.. straight up.. Alex just missed him by about a foot and a half. Kaboom. Oldman holds Alex responsible for that one... minds are exploding.


Not sure if you meant me, but not once did I say it's Alex's fault. Just trying to seeing if there could be another reason for our high drop rate, other than our guys just suck.

oldman9er wrote:
big9erfan wrote:

I don't get why people are reluctant to accept this, or looking for odd explanations.


People want Ck7 in real bad... and will color things however they need to in a pointless attempt to get everyone in their corner on this. You know this.

Props to YOU, sir.. because I remember well how much you liked Ck7... but you are choosing to be intellectually honest about the situation despite that. Cool


People have already said, many times, that all they would like to see Alex to improve and to take a shot when he sees a small window. Do I think CK would be exciting to watch? Of course, but I'm fine with Alex for now and have accepted the type of QB he is. There's nothing wrong with wanting improvement from the most important position on your team.
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big9erfan


Joined: 26 Feb 2007
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 06, 2012 1:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SoCalNiner wrote:


I am curious as to why we continue to lead in drops. We add two pretty good WR's.



Well, here's a different approach. How do you see our team's overall receiving skills. In particular how do you rank our receivers in pass catching ability compared to other guys at their positions? Not overall skill, or value, just their ability to catch a ball and their demonstrated ability not to drop simple passes.

Moss, Manningham and Crabtree - I'm going to lump these guys together because there is something "special", in a bad way, about them. Profootball Focus did a review of drops rates over several seasons for WRs. All three of these guys were in the top 15. (No, Moss and Mario did not just start dropping balls when they got here). These guys are all capable of making eye-popping catches. But we all know that there are guys who can make great plays but for some reason just fail to make the simple play more than other guys. Just for the record, James Jones, Donald Driver, TO, and DeSean Jackson were all high on that list. And also, just for thre recond, we had no one on their list lowest drop rates. Last year Ginn played a lot and I think everyone here would agree his patch catching skills are not great either.

VD and DW - My guess is that no one here will argue that VD has anything other than pretty bad hands. For the record he had the 6th highest drop rate amoung TEs. He actually had the highest number of drops since we target him so much. Delanie has better hands, but even before his drops this year he would still occasionally make the bad drop of an easy catch. I wouldn't rate him as anything other than about average.

Gore - Yeah, he's not a "receiver" but he is contributing to the drop rate for the team. He's 9th worst in drop rate among RBs. And it seems to me he was even worse last year than in past years, and is doing it again this year.

So, there you have it. Two TEs that between them probably rank down in the lower end of all TE duos on teams in the league, our top 3 WRs all in the top 15 in drop rates, and our primary receiving back with a propensity to look upfield before hauling in the pass and thus adding to the team's drop rate.

Do you see the team's receiving skills any better than this?
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big9erfan


Joined: 26 Feb 2007
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 06, 2012 1:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

oldman9er wrote:
big9erfan wrote:

I don't get why people are reluctant to accept this, or looking for odd explanations.


People want Ck7 in real bad... and will color things however they need to in a pointless attempt to get everyone in their corner on this. You know this.

Props to YOU, sir.. because I remember well how much you liked Ck7... but you are choosing to be intellectually honest about the situation despite that. Cool


Yes, I love CK and expect to see him take over for Smith some time. Not this year, but maybe as soon as next year. And I do hope we find ways to keep using him in the mix this year. It will help us win games, and help get him the experience he needs so there is no drop off when he eventually takes over.
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oldman9er


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 06, 2012 1:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

big9erfan wrote:
Moss, Manningham and Crabtree - I'm going to lump these guys together because there is something "special", in a bad way, about them. Profootball Focus did a review of drops rates over several seasons for WRs. All three of these guys were in the top 15. (No, Moss and Mario did not just start dropping balls when they got here).


https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/07/02/three-years-of-drop-rate-wide-receivers/

Quote:
49ers fans (and Alex Smith) may want to look away when he sees the drop percentage of some of his receivers (new and old) as Crabtree, Mario Manningam and Randy Moss all rated poorly.

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SoCalNiner


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 06, 2012 2:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

big9erfan wrote:
SoCalNiner wrote:


I am curious as to why we continue to lead in drops. We add two pretty good WR's.



Well, here's a different approach. How do you see our team's overall receiving skills. In particular how do you rank our receivers in pass catching ability compared to other guys at their positions? Not overall skill, or value, just their ability to catch a ball and their demonstrated ability not to drop simple passes.

Moss, Manningham and Crabtree - I'm going to lump these guys together because there is something "special", in a bad way, about them. Profootball Focus did a review of drops rates over several seasons for WRs. All three of these guys were in the top 15. (No, Moss and Mario did not just start dropping balls when they got here). These guys are all capable of making eye-popping catches. But we all know that there are guys who can make great plays but for some reason just fail to make the simple play more than other guys. Just for the record, James Jones, Donald Driver, TO, and DeSean Jackson were all high on that list. And also, just for thre recond, we had no one on their list lowest drop rates. Last year Ginn played a lot and I think everyone here would agree his patch catching skills are not great either.

I wouldn't rank them high, probably somewhere in the middle of the pack. Like I said with Crabtree, it's typically the same pass that I see him drop, anything else he's pretty good. Which is why I question the coaching here, wouldn't you want your top WR to succeed? Then put him in a situation where he can, move him around to where his has a much better chance at making a play. I think Moss's hands are much better than many give him credit for. With Manningham on the other hand, I can't say for sure because I haven't watched him his entire career, but him and Alex just aren't on the same page, that's for sure.

VD and DW - My guess is that no one here will argue that VD has anything other than pretty bad hands. For the record he had the 6th highest drop rate amoung TEs. He actually had the highest number of drops since we target him so much. Delanie has better hands, but even before his drops this year he would still occasionally make the bad drop of an easy catch. I wouldn't rate him as anything other than about average.

Davis's are far from good, but I do think they've improved. Not by leaps and bounds, but they have gotten better. Walker is just horrid, and you can also blame the staff for putting him in so much. If we cut him out, our drop rate gets much better.

Gore - Yeah, he's not a "receiver" but he is contributing to the drop rate for the team. He's 9th worst in drop rate among RBs. And it seems to me he was even worse last year than in past years, and is doing it again this year.

I've noticed a fair amount of Gore's drops have come from plays that broke down and required him to run out for the check down. However, those are ones he should catch.

So, there you have it. Two TEs that between them probably rank down in the lower end of all TE duos on teams in the league, our top 3 WRs all in the top 15 in drop rates, and our primary receiving back with a propensity to look upfield before hauling in the pass and thus adding to the team's drop rate.

Do you see the team's receiving skills any better than this?


Response in red.

I'm not saying they're good, but they're not horrid. And they have shown improvement with their hands, but still we continue to lead in drop rate. Does that mean we should just cut our WR's and TE's and start from scratch then?

Why not put them in a better position to succeed? Alex ranks 20th in YPA (6.9), so obviously a majority of his passes are short. This isn't knocking Alex; I'm just stating that a majority of our play calls result in short yardage, and a good amount in the middle where it can get pretty difficult to catch the ball. Why not spread it out more and see if the problems persist, rather than keep doing the same thing.
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big9erfan


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 06, 2012 3:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, I do agree with this part of what you're saying. I'd sure like to see us throw longer more often. I don't know that it will improve our drop rate, but I think it will help our offense.

Crabs seems to "flinch" a bit when he's coming across the middle - like he's looking to see where the big hit might be coming from. He's "alligator-armed" a few and dropped some. On the other hand, I think that despite that he's still a pretty good weapon coming on a slant. For me, I just have to accept the bad with the good. Kind of like VD. He has bad hands but is still one of the best TEs in the league. Crabs might drop a few, but he's still a darn good receiver. I wouldn't stop throwing the slant to him.

I guess I'm done here. I think our drop rate is so high because we have a bunch of guys with bad hands or who lack consistent concentration. I don't want to get rid of them. I wish there was a way for them to develop better hands or better concentration. Maybe there's something coaching could do. But in the end for me it just represents an area that is not a killer for us, just an area where some improvement would be welcomed.
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Gridirongreat#9


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 06, 2012 3:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wasnt there a post some time back when we added Moss, and MM to the mix that stated that we had 3 of the highest drop rate people in VD, Moss and Mario?
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rudyZ


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 06, 2012 4:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Gridirongreat#9 wrote:
Wasnt there a post some time back when we added Moss, and MM to the mix that stated that we had 3 of the highest drop rate people in VD, Moss and Mario?



Look 3 posts up.
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SoCalNiner


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 06, 2012 4:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

big9erfan wrote:
Well, I do agree with this part of what you're saying. I'd sure like to see us throw longer more often. I don't know that it will improve our drop rate, but I think it will help our offense.

Crabs seems to "flinch" a bit when he's coming across the middle - like he's looking to see where the big hit might be coming from. He's "alligator-armed" a few and dropped some. On the other hand, I think that despite that he's still a pretty good weapon coming on a slant. For me, I just have to accept the bad with the good. Kind of like VD. He has bad hands but is still one of the best TEs in the league. Crabs might drop a few, but he's still a darn good receiver. I wouldn't stop throwing the slant to him.

I guess I'm done here. I think our drop rate is so high because we have a bunch of guys with bad hands or who lack consistent concentration. I don't want to get rid of them. I wish there was a way for them to develop better hands or better concentration. Maybe there's something coaching could do. But in the end for me it just represents an area that is not a killer for us, just an area where some improvement would be welcomed.


Well if pre-season is an indicator of the future, good thing it's not, then we're in for some more inconsistency with A.J. Jenkins. Who knows, maybe Moss teaching our guys a thing or two will kick in soon. We're looking at Crabtree/Jenkins/Manningham/Williams as the future, which is the same group as we have now, minus Jenkins. So we definitely have to get something done in the drop department or we could be in trouble.

I highly doubt we draft a WR in the first, but I'm not ruling anything out. This guy would make my dreams come true.....


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