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Luck, Skill and Jim Harbaugh

 
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Jeebs


Joined: 18 Aug 2008
Posts: 2495
PostPosted: Thu Sep 20, 2012 1:07 pm    Post subject: Luck, Skill and Jim Harbaugh Reply with quote

This is an interesting read regarding many analysts citing historical statistics as the reasoning for them believing the the 49ers will regress to the mean this season - and why that isn't necessarily true (already proven 2 games in). It is a market analysis article, not football but good nonetheless.

http://rpseawright.wordpress.com/2012/09/18/luck-skill-and-jim-harbaugh/

Quote:
Luck (randomness) is a huge factor in investment returns, irrespective of manager. “Most of the annual variation in [one’s investment] performance is due to luck, not skill,” according to California Institute of Technology professor Bradford Cornell in a view shared by all experts (Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman talks about it in this video, for example). Even more troublesome is our perfectly human tendency to attribute poor results to bad luck and good results to skill. In investing, we generally underestimate luck.

Luck is really important in football too. There is no substantive difference from a performance standpoint when a throw is tipped by a receiver and lands harmlessly on the turf, when it hits a defender who drops it, when it hits a defender who intercepts it and when it hits another receiver for a touchdown. In those instances, luck is very important to the outcome of the game. Similarly, while fumbles relate to skill from a defensive standpoint (stripping the ball effectively, for example), recovering fumbles is largely a matter of luck (for example, where and how the ball bounces).

It is the element of luck that has had many football geeks forecasting difficulty this season for the San Francisco 49ers.
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rudyZ


Joined: 12 Mar 2007
Posts: 13709
Location: Québec
PostPosted: Thu Sep 20, 2012 2:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If luck is the only thing they can find to argue against our team, it means our team is VERY good.
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mrscottso


Joined: 09 Jan 2007
Posts: 10075
Location: NY
PostPosted: Thu Sep 20, 2012 4:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rudyZ wrote:
If luck is the only thing they can find to argue against our team, it means our team is VERY good.


I agree with you.
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4evera9er


Joined: 19 Sep 2011
Posts: 207
Location: Sydney, Australia
PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 2:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Either way, that was a really interesting read.

Thanks for sharing!
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Psychlone


Joined: 14 Mar 2008
Posts: 3969
Location: Marin County, CA.
PostPosted: Sat Dec 08, 2012 7:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Amazing how a couple of months changes things Laughing
Bill Barnwell of Grantland making a case for the "single most valuable asset in all of football"
The NFL's Most Valuable Person
Jim Harbaugh's work with the 49ers has made him the hottest property in the game — yes, RG3, even hotter than you
Quote:
In all, though, I think it's pretty clear that Harbaugh and elite coaches of his ilk are vastly underpaid and responsible for producing huge amounts of value for their respective organizations. Even if you don't value Harbaugh at the level of a player like RG3, it's pretty clear that his trade value is commensurate with that of a player who would make somewhere around three times his salary in a given year. One day, an enterprising owner who's sick of losing is going to realize that and snap up Harbaugh or Bill Belichick by promising them $15 million a year when their contract expires. Until then, Harbaugh's going to have to ply his trade as one of the league's most undervalued assets.

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8723176/jim-harbaugh-continues-biggest-bargain-football
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