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Could Lamar Miller unseat Daniel Thomas?
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Warpticon


Joined: 21 May 2010
Posts: 1561
PostPosted: Tue Sep 18, 2012 12:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fins20??SBChamp wrote:
Warpticon wrote:
Bush is not signing for 12 million total, and it's pretty ridiculous to even suggest. He signed for almost that exactly that coming off an 8-game, 36-carry season. It would be lunacy to expect to resign him at close to that coming off back-to-back career years, as he appears poised to post.


If Bush has a season similar to last year's (1086 rush yds 6 TD, 295 Rec yds 1 TD) 6 mil per year seems appropiate. If he wants more than that he better finish off with Ray Rice numbers. If he did, I would have zero issues with the Phins paying him 8 mil per year.


You're looking at raw cumulative numbers, which only kind of matter. I honestly don't care about that. I believe you sign a player for what he can do for you, not for what he did before. Usage patterns and scheme fit matter.

But, for what it's worth, Bush is already 185 yards up on where he was this time last year. 854 of his yards and all 6 TDs came in his last 9 games last year, and he missed the last game. In his last 11 games, including the first two this year, he has rushed for 1095 yards and 8 TDs at a 6.3 YPC average. I'd say that qualifies as better than "Ray Rice numbers."

It's less about the top end dollar number and more about the years. If you're only offering 2 years to a running back at this level of production without a lot of career carries (and hence low wear and tear), still in his prime years, on what is likely to be his last big contract, you will get beaten, period. Frank Gore is 29 and has over twice as many career carries as Bush, and he got 3 years. DeAngelo Williams got 5 years @ age 28. Arian Foster got 5 years @26. Matt Forte got 4 years @26. Marshawn Lynch got 4 years @ 26. Chris Johnson got six years @ 25. Hell, Fred Jackson got 3 years @ 31. Basically, there is no precedent for a back with his level of production and fresh legs getting less than 3 years.
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WaterBear56


Joined: 26 Jul 2010
Posts: 3136
PostPosted: Tue Sep 18, 2012 4:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

He will be 28. I would offer 4 years covering up to 32 years of age. 6M per season should be great for him. Front loaded that should be about 9M the first two, up to 30 years old, and 3M the final two, up to 32 years old. Front load the deal because once he hits 30 we will be lucky to have a two down back, but his leadership role will be worth keeping. He doesn't have much wear and tear but he is still an injury risk so his guaranteed amount should be minimal. He won't be too happy about the small guarantee but he won't get anything better elsewhere with his history and age.
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bpastermack


Joined: 17 Feb 2009
Posts: 13116
PostPosted: Tue Sep 18, 2012 7:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think he gets 5 year and 40 mil. I just think it will be designed like this...

Signing bonus - 18 mil
Year 1 - 1 mil
Year 2 - 2 mil
Year 3 - 3 mil
Year 4 - 7 mil
Year 5 - 9 mil

That's 8 mil a season, which is about where his value is. Lots of up front money, which he deserves, and if we cut him after 3 years when he is 31years old, then it will have only been 8 mil a season for 3 years. If he outlives the typical running back, then he gets paid 7 mil more for the 4th year and 9 mil for the final season. Those numbers would likely be restructured after year 3 if we want to keep him unless he is still playing at a very high level.

Like I have said, at this point I would much rather pay Bush 8 mil a season that he is worth than pay Long 16 mil a season.
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Fins20??SBChamp


Joined: 30 Dec 2010
Posts: 567
Location: Tampa
PostPosted: Tue Sep 18, 2012 8:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Warpticon wrote:
In his last 11 games, including the first two this year, he has rushed for 1095 yards and 8 TDs at a 6.3 YPC average.


Fair enough.
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ViolentMonk71


Joined: 06 May 2005
Posts: 3766
Location: Don Shula's front porch
PostPosted: Tue Sep 18, 2012 9:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I am all for the Dolphins dumping players and planning for the future....especially with the lack of overall talent on this roster. With that said I would love to see them extend Bush and keep him a Dolphin....having a running back that can be productive, catch and break off some big runs will only further Tannehills development by taking some of the pressure off of him to win games.
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Clutch


Joined: 04 Nov 2004
Posts: 2240
PostPosted: Tue Sep 18, 2012 1:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The answer to the question is no. Daniel Thomas is a better blocker than Lamar Miller, at this time.

Miller almost got RT killed on one pass play. Jake went lunging back to his right but couldn't pick up Shaunessy in time. The kid needs to get better at that aspect, then he will easily be able to replace Thomas.

Teams will blitz everytime Miller enters the game if they know he can't block.
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