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big_palooka


Joined: 30 Mar 2006
Posts: 22112
Location: ATL
PostPosted: Fri Sep 07, 2012 1:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

My prediction to be fair:

Posted: Fri Sep 07, 2012 10:04 am Post subject:
I posted this elsewhere, but here it is again.

Week 1: Chiefs v. Falcons L
Week 2: Chiefs v. Bills W
Week 3: Chiefs v. Saints L
Week 4: Chiefs v. Chargers L
Week 5: Chiefs v. Ravens L
Week 6: Chiefs v. Buccaneers W

Week 7: BYE

Week 8: Chiefs v. Raiders W
Week 9: Chiefs v. Chargers W
Week 10: Chiefs v. Steelers L
Week 11: Chiefs v. Bengals W
Week 12: Chiefs v. Broncos L
Week 13: Chiefs v. Panthers W
Week 14: Chiefs v. Browns W
Week 15: Chiefs v. Raiders L
Week 16: Chiefs v. Colts W
Week 17: Chiefs v. Broncos W

8-8
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DT58_lives_on


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 07, 2012 2:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Palooka, you didn't stump for Palmer no, but you did say "our" QB will cost us 5 games. I think that your predictions and mine line up actually fairly well. Though I wouldn't be shocked if we stole another game or 2, including I think we could sweep Oakland realistically. I think the Raiders are finally going to get on the right track though, and in the next 3 years I see the swing of power in the AFC West shifting to KC and Oakland rather than SD/Denver.
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kylecumberland


Joined: 04 Feb 2008
Posts: 1161
PostPosted: Fri Sep 07, 2012 6:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

[quote="big_palooka"]My prediction to be fair:

Posted: Fri Sep 07, 2012 10:04 am Post subject:
I posted this elsewhere, but here it is again.

Week 1: Chiefs v. Falcons L
Week 2: Chiefs v. Bills W
Week 3: Chiefs v. Saints L
Week 4: Chiefs v. Chargers L
Week 5: Chiefs v. Ravens L
Week 6: Chiefs v. Buccaneers W

Week 7: BYE

Week 8: Chiefs v. Raiders W
Week 9: Chiefs v. Chargers W
Week 10: Chiefs v. Steelers L
Week 11: Chiefs v. Bengals W
Week 12: Chiefs v. Broncos L
Week 13: Chiefs v. Panthers W
Week 14: Chiefs v. Browns W
Week 15: Chiefs v. Raiders L
Week 16: Chiefs v. Colts W
Week 17: Chiefs v. Broncos W

8-8[/quote]

I count 9 wins based on your projections.
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ArrowheadRage58


Joined: 31 Aug 2011
Posts: 3893
Location: Hate for the Donkeys is at a mile high
PostPosted: Fri Sep 07, 2012 11:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

big_palooka wrote:


Again, schedule. 2010, was about as easy a schedule as you'd find. The division alone has improved 10 fold since 2010. Then add in the like of ATL, Buf, NO, Pitt, Balt to name a few. Night and day the level of competition KC will face. KC will not go 5-1 in the division as you predict. You can be assured of that.


Again. You fail to acknowledge the changes from one year to the next. You just assume X player is better 'just because'. Moeaki a prime example. Had a nice rookie year, major knee injury last year and you just assume he's better today 'just because'. He could easily never regain form and who knows, never live up to his rookie season. It's happened to better rookies.


2010 schedule was a cake walk, but KC also won in a blow out SIX times...that is not the sign of a team who's just scraping by on having an easy schedule. The current team is vastly improved in every area except CB and QB and while Cassel has always sucked against top D's, there are only two or three of those on the 2012 schedule, so the rest of the team is now talented enough to compete and possibly win those games, regardless of Cassel.

I think you fail to realize how much better KC's roster is than it was in 2010...even if Moeaki doesn't return to form, this time we have another competent TE.

As far as the whole division being better...you guys and the Chargers are about the same (which isn't bad)...the Donkeys have added Manning, but the rest of the roster mostly sucks. Here are some of the player defections since 2010:

Chiefs-Carr, Waters
Raiders-Campbell.Bush,Z.Miller,Gallery,Wimbley,Routt,Scrabble
Donkeys- Gaffney,Lloyd,Orton,Tebow,Royal,Graham,R.Harris,J.Williams, Bannan,Haggan,Cox,Dawkins,Hill
Bolts-McNeil,Jackson,Sproles,Burnett,Tolbert
*not all those guys are a loss, but it also speaks to the continuity of each team. Waters is no longer a loss, Carr is the only negative and the only position we are now worse at since 2010 is RCB...not to mention all the depth is better. What about the Raiders?

The division is better, but only because of Manning and the fact the Chiefs have added quite a few pieces without losing hardly any. I'm more optimistic about a tougher schedule with better players than the other way around...10 or 11 wins seems about right and Cassel will rarely be a positive, but the only games where there's a chance he'll completely lose it by himself are Bal and Pitt. None of the other D's are good enough to make Cassel beat them and he'll have plenty of games like 2010 because the rest of the offense is so good. If you watch 2010, it was the offenses that made so many of the teams we played bad. Most of the D's were decent, but we had 6 blowouts cuz nobody could stop the run game (which could be even better now) and then PA fed off that even though we only had two quality receivers in Bowe and Moeaki...all Cassel has to do is find the open guy, which will be even easier this year since there are like 8 or 9 legit weapons instead of just two.
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onejayhawk


Joined: 14 Apr 2006
Posts: 5653
Location: Waco, Tx
PostPosted: Sat Sep 08, 2012 5:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

big_palooka wrote:
Last I will get into this with you, because it's like talking to a wall.

onejayhawk wrote:

2010 is the best basis we have. You need to start there. True, Weis is gone, but Daboll is a solid run oriented OC, and Carthon is still here. Even if you give an edge to Weis, it is not a big one. The concept of the offense is still the same.


Again, schedule. 2010, was about as easy a schedule as you'd find. The division alone has improved 10 fold since 2010. Then add in the like of ATL, Buf, NO, Pitt, Balt to name a few. Night and day the level of competition KC will face. KC will not go 5-1 in the division as you predict. You can be assured of that.

onejayhawk wrote:
Talentwise, it is not close. Bowe is Bowe. Breaston is better than Chambers, Moeaki is a year more experienced and we had nothing like Baldwin. Hillis is a huge step up from Thomas Jones. The OL is a bit of a concern. This group has more talent, but 2010 had Waters in one of his better years, plus good years from Lilja and Albert. OTOH RT was not good. Call it a push for now


Again. You fail to acknowledge the changes from one year to the next. You just assume X player is better 'just because'. Moeaki a prime example. Had a nice rookie year, major knee injury last year and you just assume he's better today 'just because'. He could easily never regain form and who knows, never live up to his rookie season. It's happened to better rookies.

onejayhawk wrote:
As much as it can be said to track anywhere, this season tracks 2010 for Cassel. Weis may not be here, but his old game plans are. Charles, Bowe, Albert, Moeaki are here, and with more experience. Remember Moeaki was a rookie. Albert and Charles were entering the 3rd year. Also you have to acknowledge 2008, which is Cassel's Pro Bowl year. The level of talent around him rivals that Patriot team. Cassel is dependent on his talent, but he can also use it.

J


You show me a situation where Cassel ever played a strong defense and played well. It's literally never happened. If KC falls behind in a game, it's over. He can't carry a team on his back and make plays against a good defense.

You have KC going 5-1 before the bye. Sig bet you they don't hit that mark.

2010 did not look like a cakewalk going in. We played some very good defenses. Offenses, not so much. In particular San Diego was #1. They played well against Seattle and SF. In any event, it is the best comparison available for Cassel. I never said it was a good one, though it is not a BAD one.

J
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big_palooka


Joined: 30 Mar 2006
Posts: 22112
Location: ATL
PostPosted: Sat Sep 08, 2012 10:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ArrowheadRage58 wrote:

2010 schedule was a cake walk, but KC also won in a blow out SIX times...that is not the sign of a team who's just scraping by on having an easy schedule. The current team is vastly improved in every area except CB and QB and while Cassel has always sucked against top D's, there are only two or three of those on the 2012 schedule, so the rest of the team is now talented enough to compete and possibly win those games, regardless of Cassel.


They were also blown out a number of times. They blew out some flat worthless teams in 2010. Teams in flux and were blown out by a couple so so teams like 2010 Denver and Oakland.

The rest of your comment is nothing more than speculation. Every team KC matches up w/ this season is improved on paper. Also, you are buying Crenell as being a competent HC when history shows he's not from 2010. That's a dynamic that will have to play out. How will he do w/ less attention to the D and more across the team? Can his 'extreme players coach' style that sank him in Cleveland take hold when losses pile up?

ArrowheadRage58 wrote:
I think you fail to realize how much better KC's roster is than it was in 2010...even if Moeaki doesn't return to form, this time we have another competent TE.


It obvious they are better. But so are a lot of teams on paper.

ArrowheadRage58 wrote:
As far as the whole division being better...you guys and the Chargers are about the same (which isn't bad)...the Donkeys have added Manning, but the rest of the roster mostly sucks. Here are some of the player defections since 2010:

Chiefs-Carr, Waters
Raiders-Campbell.Bush,Z.Miller,Gallery,Wimbley,Routt,Scrabble
Donkeys- Gaffney,Lloyd,Orton,Tebow,Royal,Graham,R.Harris,J.Williams, Bannan,Haggan,Cox,Dawkins,Hill
Bolts-McNeil,Jackson,Sproles,Burnett,Tolbert
*not all those guys are a loss, but it also speaks to the continuity of each team. Waters is no longer a loss, Carr is the only negative and the only position we are now worse at since 2010 is RCB...not to mention all the depth is better. What about the Raiders?


Broncos added a HOF QB and are well coached. The Raiders have remade their defense under a philosophy that is not from Al Davis. They've also added and grew talent same as KC or any other team since 2010. But then again, I'm not going 'homer' over the Raiders. I know they are a work in progress. But I also know they are miles better than the Tom Cable 'we are not losers anymore' bunch of 2010.

ArrowheadRage58 wrote:
The division is better, but only because of Manning and the fact the Chiefs have added quite a few pieces without losing hardly any. I'm more optimistic about a tougher schedule with better players than the other way around...10 or 11 wins seems about right and Cassel will rarely be a positive, but the only games where there's a chance he'll completely lose it by himself are Bal and Pitt. None of the other D's are good enough to make Cassel beat them and he'll have plenty of games like 2010 because the rest of the offense is so good. If you watch 2010, it was the offenses that made so many of the teams we played bad. Most of the D's were decent, but we had 6 blowouts cuz nobody could stop the run game (which could be even better now) and then PA fed off that even though we only had two quality receivers in Bowe and Moeaki...all Cassel has to do is find the open guy, which will be even easier this year since there are like 8 or 9 legit weapons instead of just two.


There are 8 defenses that will easily overwhelm Cassel in 4 quarters. Then there are teams like the Saints who can put up points that Cassel can't come back from.

And we will see if that offense is 'so good'. They were flat miserable a year ago. Added some talent, but let's see it in action before crowning it. Charlie Wies isn't calling it this go round.

Teams know Cassel is mediocre. These defense they will face will stack up and take away the run best they can and make Cassel beat them. It's a long shot to assume he can.

8 or 9 legit weapons? Come on. There are 2. Charles and Bowe. The rest are role players. That's like me saying Palmer has 8 or 9 legit weapons. He has 1, McFadden w/ Moore possibly growing into one.
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onejayhawk


Joined: 14 Apr 2006
Posts: 5653
Location: Waco, Tx
PostPosted: Sat Sep 08, 2012 12:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

[quote="big_palooka"]
ArrowheadRage58 wrote:
ArrowheadRage58 wrote:
I think you fail to realize how much better KC's roster is than it was in 2010...even if Moeaki doesn't return to form, this time we have another competent TE.


It obvious they are better. But so are a lot of teams on paper.


Not if you know how to evaluate talent. Very few allow for the decline of a starter who is on the downside. Predictions are constantly made based on a player's prime, when that is no longer appopriate. For example, look at the 49er fans that will tell you that Willis is the best ILB in football, when he is not the best ILB on his own team. Sometimes the players rise to the challange, eg Brady is at an age where HoF QBs often retire. Usually they lose a half step, get injured, and everyone blames the injury.

J
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TambaHawk


Joined: 19 Nov 2010
Posts: 210
Location: New Jersey
PostPosted: Sat Sep 08, 2012 12:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Atlanta Falcons (W) @ Kansas City Chiefs (L)
Kansas City Chiefs (L) @ Buffalo Bills (W)
Kansas City Chiefs (L) @ New Orleans Saints (W)
San Diego Chargers (L) @ Kansas City Chiefs (W)
Baltimore Ravens (L) @ Kansas City Chiefs (W)
Kansas City Chiefs (L) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (W)
Oakland Raiders (L) @ Kansas City Chiefs (W)
Kansas City Chiefs (W) @ San Diego Chargers (L)
Kansas City Chiefs (W) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (L)
Cincinnati Bengals (L) @ Kansas City Chiefs (W)
Denver Broncos (W) @ Kansas City Chiefs (L)
Carolina Panthers (W) @ Kansas City Chiefs (L)
Kansas City Chiefs (W) @ Cleveland Browns (L)
Kansas City Chiefs (L) @ Oakland Raiders (W)
Indianapolis Colts (L) @ Kansas City Chiefs (W)
Kansas City Chiefs (W) @ Denver Broncos (L)

9-7 win the division
Everyone will be healthy by this time and we make run to the Super Bowl to lose
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ArrowheadRage58


Joined: 31 Aug 2011
Posts: 3893
Location: Hate for the Donkeys is at a mile high
PostPosted: Sat Sep 08, 2012 10:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

big_palooka wrote:
ArrowheadRage58 wrote:

2010 schedule was a cake walk, but KC also won in a blow out SIX times...that is not the sign of a team who's just scraping by on having an easy schedule. The current team is vastly improved in every area except CB and QB and while Cassel has always sucked against top D's, there are only two or three of those on the 2012 schedule, so the rest of the team is now talented enough to compete and possibly win those games, regardless of Cassel.


They were also blown out a number of times. They blew out some flat worthless teams in 2010. Teams in flux and were blown out by a couple so so teams like 2010 Denver and Oakland.

The rest of your comment is nothing more than speculation. Every team KC matches up w/ this season is improved on paper. Also, you are buying Crenell as being a competent HC when history shows he's not from 2010. That's a dynamic that will have to play out. How will he do w/ less attention to the D and more across the team? Can his 'extreme players coach' style that sank him in Cleveland take hold when losses pile up?

ArrowheadRage58 wrote:
I think you fail to realize how much better KC's roster is than it was in 2010...even if Moeaki doesn't return to form, this time we have another competent TE.


It obvious they are better. But so are a lot of teams on paper.

ArrowheadRage58 wrote:
As far as the whole division being better...you guys and the Chargers are about the same (which isn't bad)...the Donkeys have added Manning, but the rest of the roster mostly sucks. Here are some of the player defections since 2010:

Chiefs-Carr, Waters
Raiders-Campbell.Bush,Z.Miller,Gallery,Wimbley,Routt,Scrabble
Donkeys- Gaffney,Lloyd,Orton,Tebow,Royal,Graham,R.Harris,J.Williams, Bannan,Haggan,Cox,Dawkins,Hill
Bolts-McNeil,Jackson,Sproles,Burnett,Tolbert
*not all those guys are a loss, but it also speaks to the continuity of each team. Waters is no longer a loss, Carr is the only negative and the only position we are now worse at since 2010 is RCB...not to mention all the depth is better. What about the Raiders?


Broncos added a HOF QB and are well coached. The Raiders have remade their defense under a philosophy that is not from Al Davis. They've also added and grew talent same as KC or any other team since 2010. But then again, I'm not going 'homer' over the Raiders. I know they are a work in progress. But I also know they are miles better than the Tom Cable 'we are not losers anymore' bunch of 2010.

ArrowheadRage58 wrote:
The division is better, but only because of Manning and the fact the Chiefs have added quite a few pieces without losing hardly any. I'm more optimistic about a tougher schedule with better players than the other way around...10 or 11 wins seems about right and Cassel will rarely be a positive, but the only games where there's a chance he'll completely lose it by himself are Bal and Pitt. None of the other D's are good enough to make Cassel beat them and he'll have plenty of games like 2010 because the rest of the offense is so good. If you watch 2010, it was the offenses that made so many of the teams we played bad. Most of the D's were decent, but we had 6 blowouts cuz nobody could stop the run game (which could be even better now) and then PA fed off that even though we only had two quality receivers in Bowe and Moeaki...all Cassel has to do is find the open guy, which will be even easier this year since there are like 8 or 9 legit weapons instead of just two.


There are 8 defenses that will easily overwhelm Cassel in 4 quarters. Then there are teams like the Saints who can put up points that Cassel can't come back from.

And we will see if that offense is 'so good'. They were flat miserable a year ago. Added some talent, but let's see it in action before crowning it. Charlie Wies isn't calling it this go round.

Teams know Cassel is mediocre. These defense they will face will stack up and take away the run best they can and make Cassel beat them. It's a long shot to assume he can.

8 or 9 legit weapons? Come on. There are 2. Charles and Bowe. The rest are role players. That's like me saying Palmer has 8 or 9 legit weapons. He has 1, McFadden w/ Moore possibly growing into one.


Arrow Yeah they blew out some flat worthless teams...I basically said the same thing, but bad or average teams do not have SIX blowout wins in one season no matter who they play.
Arrow Yeah, there might be 8 defenses that would overwhelm Cassel, but we only play 2 or 3 of em.
Arrow Of course the offense was flat miserable a year ago, but the 2010 offense wasn't. Common sense SHOULD tell even a Raider fan which version this year's team will be closer to. In fact it would be very difficult to not predict noticeable improvement from the 2010 offense. We haven't lost anybody, but have added Baldwin,Breaston,Hillis,Boss, and Winston. Weis/Daboll is too insignificant.
Arrow Yeah, the defenses will stack the run and we've seen good things happen against anything but a top 10 D, despite Bowe and Moeaki being the only viable targets.
Arrow yeah 8 or 9 legit weapons...not all pro bowlers or game breakers, but above average for their position: Charles,Hillis,Bowe,Breaston,Baldwin,McCluster,Moeaki,Boss...got a couple rookies in Gray and Wylie that would see playing on alot of teams.
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TambaHawk


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2012 5:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

woah! woah! My predictions are doing great! I want to predict that we fire Pioli after the BRUTAL lose at New Orleans
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big_palooka


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2012 7:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Raiders and Chiefs are in the same boat. 2 discouraging losses. KC's defense sucks when thought to be a strength and the Raiders O sucks when thought to be a strength.

Right now, the Raiders first 'chance at a win' is when they come to KC it looks like baring an upset.

KC seems to be in the same boat. Unless the worthless Romeo Crennel can right this ship, the Raiders/Chiefs game is going to be a battle for both teams first win.

Can't say I saw these teams being this bad.
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Piquel


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 28, 2012 1:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

big_palooka wrote:
There are 8 defenses that will easily overwhelm Cassel in 4 quarters. Then there are teams like the Saints who can put up points that Cassel can't come back from.


Cassel maybe not, but Charles can Laughing
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