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Redskins sign former Bucs Kicker Kai Forbath; Cut K Cundiff
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2012 9:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

RSkinGM wrote:
That kick he missed against New England at the end of the Playoff game --just read he said about 7 things went wrong and it was very rushed , unlike all his previous kicks in those situations.
Surely-- he could have called timeout himself and got things settled. Why didn't he - ?? He's like the QB in that situation ,,if all isn't correct --call the timeout !
I don't think they had a timeout if I remember correctly. If they did, Harbaugh should of.
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Thaiphoon


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2012 9:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

turtle28 wrote:
RSkinGM wrote:
That kick he missed against New England at the end of the Playoff game --just read he said about 7 things went wrong and it was very rushed , unlike all his previous kicks in those situations.
Surely-- he could have called timeout himself and got things settled. Why didn't he - ?? He's like the QB in that situation ,,if all isn't correct --call the timeout !
I don't think they had a timeout if I remember correctly. If they did, Harbaugh should of.


They did and he should have.
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2012 12:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thaiphoon wrote:
turtle28 wrote:
RSkinGM wrote:
That kick he missed against New England at the end of the Playoff game --just read he said about 7 things went wrong and it was very rushed , unlike all his previous kicks in those situations.
Surely-- he could have called timeout himself and got things settled. Why didn't he - ?? He's like the QB in that situation ,,if all isn't correct --call the timeout !
I don't think they had a timeout if I remember correctly. If they did, Harbaugh should of.


They did and he should have.
Harbugh should have sure. He's the coach. They didn't have the team ready. Harbugh blew it.

How often do kickers call time out? It's not even something they do, they'd refer to the head coach or Holder in that scenario. Cundiff was told to rush onto the field and rush a kick. A Kicker (unless told) has no idea on time outs.

It's all on the coaching staff
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Woz


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2012 12:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

turtle28 wrote:
Thaiphoon wrote:
turtle28 wrote:
RSkinGM wrote:
That kick he missed against New England at the end of the Playoff game --just read he said about 7 things went wrong and it was very rushed , unlike all his previous kicks in those situations.
Surely-- he could have called timeout himself and got things settled. Why didn't he - ?? He's like the QB in that situation ,,if all isn't correct --call the timeout !
I don't think they had a timeout if I remember correctly. If they did, Harbaugh should of.


They did and he should have.
Harbugh should have sure. He's the coach. They didn't have the team ready. Harbugh blew it.

How often do kickers call time out? It's not even something they do, they'd refer to the head coach or Holder in that scenario. Cundiff was told to rush onto the field and rush a kick. A Kicker (unless told) has no idea on time outs.

It's all on the coaching staff


At the same time, Cundiff needed to be aware of the game. If he wasn't fully ready to nail that kick, he should have said something. Someone has the responsibility for making sure the team lines up properly and everyone is on the field who is supposed to be there. If not Cundiff, then the holder. And the holder doesn't call for the snap unless Cundiff says go.
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2012 1:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Woz wrote:
turtle28 wrote:
Thaiphoon wrote:
turtle28 wrote:
RSkinGM wrote:
That kick he missed against New England at the end of the Playoff game --just read he said about 7 things went wrong and it was very rushed , unlike all his previous kicks in those situations.
Surely-- he could have called timeout himself and got things settled. Why didn't he - ?? He's like the QB in that situation ,,if all isn't correct --call the timeout !
I don't think they had a timeout if I remember correctly. If they did, Harbaugh should of.


They did and he should have.
Harbugh should have sure. He's the coach. They didn't have the team ready. Harbugh blew it.

How often do kickers call time out? It's not even something they do, they'd refer to the head coach or Holder in that scenario. Cundiff was told to rush onto the field and rush a kick. A Kicker (unless told) has no idea on time outs.

It's all on the coaching staff


At the same time, Cundiff needed to be aware of the game. If he wasn't fully ready to nail that kick, he should have said something. Someone has the responsibility for making sure the team lines up properly and everyone is on the field who is supposed to be there. If not Cundiff, then the holder. And the holder doesn't call for the snap unless Cundiff says go.
Easier said than done. Harbugh should have just called TO and it would have been fine.

Cundiff was rushing. He obviously wasn't briefed by his special teams coach on the situation. I remember a lot of confusion at that time of the game on the sidelines. They were focusing on I think challenging the Lee Evans drop which was almost a catch.

Love how everyone already wants to blame our new kicker and throw him under the bus for his coaches failures in a game this organization hasn't gotten to in 20 years... Rolling Eyes
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Woz


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2012 1:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

turtle28 wrote:
Woz wrote:
turtle28 wrote:
Thaiphoon wrote:
turtle28 wrote:
RSkinGM wrote:
That kick he missed against New England at the end of the Playoff game --just read he said about 7 things went wrong and it was very rushed , unlike all his previous kicks in those situations.
Surely-- he could have called timeout himself and got things settled. Why didn't he - ?? He's like the QB in that situation ,,if all isn't correct --call the timeout !
I don't think they had a timeout if I remember correctly. If they did, Harbaugh should of.


They did and he should have.
Harbugh should have sure. He's the coach. They didn't have the team ready. Harbugh blew it.

How often do kickers call time out? It's not even something they do, they'd refer to the head coach or Holder in that scenario. Cundiff was told to rush onto the field and rush a kick. A Kicker (unless told) has no idea on time outs.

It's all on the coaching staff


At the same time, Cundiff needed to be aware of the game. If he wasn't fully ready to nail that kick, he should have said something. Someone has the responsibility for making sure the team lines up properly and everyone is on the field who is supposed to be there. If not Cundiff, then the holder. And the holder doesn't call for the snap unless Cundiff says go.
Easier said than done. Harbugh should have just called TO and it would have been fine.

Cundiff was rushing. He obviously wasn't briefed by his special teams coach on the situation. I remember a lot of confusion at that time of the game on the sidelines. They were focusing on I think challenging the Lee Evans drop which was almost a catch.

Love how everyone already wants to blame our new kicker and throw him under the bus for his coaches failures in a game this organization hasn't gotten to in 20 years... Rolling Eyes


I'm not blaming him. I'm also not letting him off the hook. The whole lead-up to that kick was a ginormous screw up.

Where I am down on Cundiff is the idea he's going to be that much better of a kicker than what we had.
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footy_29


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2012 10:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Woz wrote:
Where I am down on Cundiff is the idea he's going to be that much better of a kicker than what we had.


Exactly where I am with this situation. I think this move was made when it was made because Shanahan thinks the team is going to make the playoffs and therefore wanted a kicker with playoff experience.

This is the definition of a short-term outlook, however kickers have typically been unappreciated and undervalued - only recently have kickers started to receive their due. Gano will have success elsewhere, and there are always going to be more kickers to choose from because of the nature of the position (aka. no job security).
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e16bball


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2012 4:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Woz wrote:
Basically: can a guy have a significant rebirth of his career after the age of 30? Sure, it's possible. Do we want to bet on this long-term? That's a dicey prospect in my mind. Was he better than Gano? Given that the coaching staff apparently had no confidence in Graham (bringing in Rackers and then immediately cutting Gano when Cundiff was available), I guess we'll find out.


Well, a few guys at least appear to have gone through substantial improvement after struggling initially in their careers.

Sebastian Janikowski: 179/233 (76.8%) through age 29; 114/135 (84.4%) since
Neil Rackers: 75/108 (69.4%) through age 28; 189/222 (85.1%) since
Rian Lindell: 75/102 (73.5%) through age 26; 187/222 (84.2%) since
Matt Stover: 174/221 (78.7%) through age 30; 297/342 (86.6%) since
Joe Nedney: 101/138 (73.8%) through age 28; 155/181 (85.6%) since
Jay Feely: 98/127 (77.2%) through age 28; 176/207 (85.0%) since

Each of those guys struggled to some degree early in their career, but in their late 20s or 30s figured it out to the point that they were elite kickers for a number of years. Cundiff was basically out of the league by age 25, but his 61/83 (73.5%) performance is pretty much in line with what Lindell, Rackers, and Nedney did over longer periods in their career --- before putting it together.

The thing that leads me to believe Cundiff really is a different kicker is that he had a total of 8 TBs on 155 KOs during his "first career." Even if we eliminate last season, due to the rules change, he has 43 TBs in 133 KOs since returning. Personally, I suspected hGH use when he started banging all those long KOs for the Ravens. But it doesn't really matter to me if he IS using, at least until they start implementing testing.

Whatever the reason, he appears to be a different player since coming back. It's not necessarily LIKELY that he'd break out when he's 30, but there are plenty of similar cases to show it's not a major aberration either.
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2012 4:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Woz wrote:
Where I am down on Cundiff is the idea he's going to be that much better of a kicker than what we had.


Well, sure. I don't think that can be clearly demonstrated. But I think what you've hit on here is the fungibility of kickers.

How many players are you convinced will be that much better than Cundiff in 2012? Beyond? Keeping in mind the clear advantage indoor kickers have over their outdoor counterparts, the only guys I would put any sort of money on at all are Rob Bironas, Nate Kaeding, Sebastian Janikowski, David Akers, and Robbie Gould. To me, those are the 5 best outdoor kickers in the known world (and let's not forget that 3 of them just so happen to kick in California where the weather is a little less of a factor). Beyond that, I think it's all a crapshoot.

As I noted before, Cundiff evidently is not very proficient at kicking 50+ yarders. It's possible that this could change or could even be a statistical fluke, but 1/9 is pretty damning evidence that his true talent is not league average or anything close. Pretty slim odds that this would be just random chance (there's something like a 1-2% chance that even a 50/50 kicker would go 1/9). But if you don't waste your time kicking 50 yard FGs and just use him on kicks from within that distance, how does he compare to the elite? Over the past 3 seasons:

Nate Kaeding: 77/86 (89.5%)
Rob Bironas: 67/72 (93.1%)
Sebastian Janikowski: 73/80 (91.3%)
David Akers: 99/112 (88.4%)
Robbie Gould: 66/77 (85.7%)
Billy Cundiff: 71/80 (88.8%)

He's no Bironas --- easily the best K in the NFL, and it's sort of odd actually that he doesn't get more credit than he does --- but otherwise this guy the Ravens just cut is right in the middle of the "elite" pack from within 49 yards over the past 3 seasons. And the thing is, there are probably some 15 other guys who are just as competent as he is, overall. How much difference is there really between these guys?

I think there are two important things to note. First, these guys are bunched so closely together and the raw number of kicks in a season is so small that it's really hard to notice any major difference between kickers of even marginally equal talent. For example, let's say you've got a very accurate indoor kicker like Ryan Longwell, who was 4th in the league over the past 3 years (87.8%), and a decent outdoor kicker like Dan Carpenter, who was 19th in the league (81.6%). Between the two of them, they averaged about 30 FGA per season. Assuming their true talent level is equal to those 3-year averages and that the makes/misses would be evenly distributed (not really a safe assumption, but it works for the example), you would expect Longwell to make 26-27 and Carpenter to make 24-25. So over the course of an average season, the difference between a top 5 kicker (say, the Ben Roethlisberger of kickers) and a guy who's basically in the bottom 3rd (the Josh Freeman of kickers) is 3-9 points, or less than half a point per game.

Moreover, that assumes FGMs are evenly distributed. And like most things in this world, they aren't. If you flip a coin 10 times, you aren't always going to get 5 heads. Sometimes you'll get 4, sometimes you'll get 7, etc. It isn't until you flip the coin MANY times that the 50% probability will be certain to emerge in the results. Same thing with a baseball hitter. Send a .300 hitter to the plate, he isn't going to get you 3 hits in every 10 AB stretch --- the hits and outs will bunch together in short samples like that. Except in sports, we call these things "slumps" or "hot streaks." Only over the course of perhaps a full season (600 ABs) will you see that .300 probability emerge in the results.

Same thing with a kicker, then. His makes and misses are going to bunch together, and it's only going to be after MANY kicks that you'll see his actual probability (in this case, his true talent FG%) emerge. Because there are so few attempts in any given season, you're going to have a hard time knowing from those few kicks whether the guy went 24/30 because he's an 80% kicker --- or if he's a 75% kicker who had a good run or an 85% kicker who had a bad run.

All of which is a long way of saying: (1) at the NFL level, it's kind of hard to tell with a great deal of certainty what a kicker's true talent is unless you have numerous seasons of data on him and (2) even if you could know this with certainty, it doesn't make a huge difference. As long as you have a guy you can feel comfortable is in the average (read: Dan Carpenter-esque) range, you're not really going to be hurting. And you'll probably give yourself the upside of an elite season, along with the potential downside of a below-average season.

With Cundiff, they can feel pretty comfortable that as long as they use him properly (i.e., don't extend him out too far), they're going to have a guy who fits comfortably in the "good enough" range. He has the talent to give you a Pro Bowl season (see 2010) and he's not immune to struggles (see 2011). But there's not much reason to believe, based on what he's done since his return, that he will flat-out stink. For as much potential as Gano has, and for as much as some of the misses haven't been his fault, he's been 31st out of 32 qualified kickers since he came into the league. That's down there in "stink" range. And that's without the excuse that he was deployed improperly (as Cundiff was by the Ravens last season). I think they did want experience, but I think they also wanted to make sure they raised the "floor" for the performance they get from the K position this year. Gano has the potential and the upside to be just as good as Cundiff --- but Cundiff doesn't show much reason to believe he has the potential to be as BAD as Gano has shown he can be.
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2012 8:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I heard on 980 from Rich Campbell another reason they went with Cundiff was confidence. Actually, he said Cundiff is down right cocky.

With Gano he never seemed like a vey confident kicker. I guess call it the Jason Campbell effect. He's got the talent but it's more mental for him than anything. Like campbell, Gano never showed real confidence out there.

I don't think Shanahan and Smith had much confidence in him after last season and I don't think Gano had much confidence that he would definitely make it either.

Now Cundiff. It seems from wht Rich Campbell was saying, that he as a Robert Griffin type attitude. When Cundiff steps on the field, he knows he will get the job done.
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2012 8:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It wouldn't surprise me if this is Danny Smith's last season in Washington.
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2012 8:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

AntiSuperstar wrote:
It wouldn't surprise me if this is Danny Smith's last season in Washington.
People have thought that for 5 years...
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 31, 2012 12:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

AntiSuperstar wrote:
It wouldn't surprise me if this is Danny Smith's last season in Washington.


It should be.
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2012 2:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

***Update***
Quote:
Reacting to the struggles of former Pro Bowl kicker Billy Cundiff, the Washington Redskins are signing former UCLA kicker Kai Forbath today, according to a league source.

Forbath tried out for the Redskins today along with Olindo Mare and Josh Brown.

Cundiff is expected to be released today. He was cut by the Baltimore Ravens during the preseason after being beaten out by rookie kicker Justin Tucker.


http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/ravens/ravens-insider/bal-source-redskins-signing-kai-forbath-cutting-billy-cundiff-20121009,0,7443705.story
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2012 2:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Man, I like it -- seems to have aTON of potential..Anyone read what his non-football injury was that put him on I R.. ??
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