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Keeping core together is KEY

 
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canyon1


Joined: 17 Feb 2007
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Location: Austin, TX
PostPosted: Tue Aug 28, 2012 3:50 pm    Post subject: Keeping core together is KEY Reply with quote

I am at work think how in the world are we going to get barwin, cushing and shaub signed so we keep building our core and i came up with and idea i dont think its going to take care of everything but it sure wouldnt hurt to try. After this season we release two guy Shaun Cody and Kevin Walter. If i remember correctly that will be saving aroun 6 to 7 million a year right there. Then the salary cap was suppose to jump up this year ... or so i thought. If i remember correctly the jump from year one to year two wasnt much much year two to three is suppose to be a goon one. My hope is that that it is enough to cover two of the three. doing this would mean we probably wouldnt resign Quin. To me thats ok bec next draft I already have my guy i am praying for now and will be watching every LSU game even though I cant stand LSU for my man Eric Reid. Dream scenario probably wont happen but save the money and cut walter who hasnt really done anything in awhile. NT is a position I wish we would address this year with someone in house or Kawann Short which i think is actually realistic bec of who our GM is and our recent man crush on BIG 10 players which doesnt bother me a bit as long as its not PAC12 (except USC) or BIG EAST i am ok with it. So what other plans does everyone have to try and retain these three men???
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canyon1


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 28, 2012 3:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Owe and I need a new SIG LOL BAD
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Wolf6151


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 28, 2012 4:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think Walter and Cody are both prime candidates for salary cap cuts. I think Antonio Smith and Rashad Butler are as well, and OD is a possibility too. I think Walter's replacement is possibly already on the team, Jean, and I think Cody's replacement could be Kawaan Short or Sylvester Williams-DT from N. Carolina. Butler's replacement is Newton, OD's replacement is Graham, but I don't see a replacement for A. Smith yet. I like Tim Jamison and Crick but neither is near as good as Antonio. Alot of money could be saved with those cuts thus allowing us to re-sign Schaub if good and healthy this year, Barwin, and Quin. I think we look for a new swing OT in the 3rd or 4th round of next years draft and a new DT/NT to work in rotation with Mitchell in the 2nd or 3rd rounds. The next offseason could be a bloody one with all the salary cap cuts.

Last edited by Wolf6151 on Tue Aug 28, 2012 5:12 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Marco79


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 28, 2012 4:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
I think Antonio Smith and Rashad Butler are as well, and OD is a possibility too.

Shocked Laughing Laughing Laughing

He is a top DE in this league. NO chance we cut him.

Also casey being a salary cap cut? He doesn't make a lot already...
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EliteTexan80


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 28, 2012 4:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Marco79 wrote:
Quote:
I think Antonio Smith and Rashad Butler are as well, and OD is a possibility too.

Shocked Laughing Laughing Laughing

He is a top DE in this league. NO chance we cut him.


...he's also making a lot of money and is on the wrong side of 30. Remember - this time last year, NONE of us would of ever figured that RT Eric Winston was bound to be cut. Heck, going INTO this offseason, nobody saw that coming (and he's arguably one of the top 5 RTs in the game, if not the #1 guy).

I doubt it comes to that - I'm sure the team will come to Smith and ask him to take a heavy restructure to stick with the team. Much like how we cut Winston to make the money open up for C Chris Myers, I can see the team renegotiate or cut Smith, in an effort to make money for OLB Connor Barwin.

Rick Smith is right now touting the 20-70-10 rule in our roster moves. Antonio Smith isn't quite a 20 guy, more a 70 guy. A very GOOD 70 guy, but a 70 guy nonetheless.
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Wolf6151


Joined: 11 Feb 2008
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 28, 2012 5:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Marco79 wrote:
Quote:
I think Antonio Smith and Rashad Butler are as well, and OD is a possibility too.

Shocked Laughing Laughing Laughing


Also casey being a salary cap cut? He doesn't make a lot already...


I meant Cody not Casey, fixed it. Thanks.

To me Antonio Smith is a bubble guy. I can see it going either way, it depends on all the other cuts made. He'd probably be one of the last cuts made but if he were cut it wouldn't surprise me. We probably still owe him some signing bonus money, not sure how much, so that would be a factor as well.
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Marco79


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 28, 2012 5:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just position wise a dominate DE is worth much more than a RT. Winston may have been one of the better RTs in the league but that is because there aren't many very good RTs. If they were really good they would be playing LT. DEs are hard to come by and are a commodity espeically in the 3-4. Smith play has not started to diminish, you can make a case that he's gotten better every year we had him. Winston was clearly past his prime and was not playing as good as we were paying him too. Smith on the otherhand is well worth the money he is getting. I just don't think you can compare the two.
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canyon1


Joined: 17 Feb 2007
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 28, 2012 6:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Smith to me is a core guy hands down he started the alot of the toughness our defense was lacking we had names but the attitude he brought in. Between him and pollard who i was so mad we let go always will be a pollard fan. Those two men alone did so much for this defense we need antonio... If we were to let him go then i would be want WERNER from Florida State .... i shouldnt have to worry about that bec we need the ninja assasin i think he can be good another three to four years... I hope he can at least that saves us alot of problems with him producing the way he does
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Apollo Stallion


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 28, 2012 6:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'll try to clean this up for you:

Rashad Butler, Shaun Cody, Glover Quin and James Casey are 2013 free agents along with Barwin and Schaub who need to stay healthy all season to cash in on big raises. You don't "cut" pending free agents.

Antoine Caldwell and Brice McCain are contributing pending 2013 FA's as well who will be due significant raises (although if I had my way we'd cut McCain on Friday).

Walter is under contract for $3.5 million in 2013 & 2014 and can be cut with no cap hit since he has already played thru his bonus/guarantee. Team is wise to keep him around until we have an actual alternative that outplays him which Jacoby never did.

Owen Daniels is under contract for $4 million in 2013 & $4.5 million in 2014, with a $3 million hit if we cut him in 2013 and $1.5 million if we cut him in 2014 (told you folks it was a terrible deal when we did it).

Antonio Smith is signed for 2013 for $6 million with a $2.5 million hit if we cut him. If you can find a vet that makes the kind of impact Antonio does for $3.5 million, show me.

Cushing is a 2014 free agent and given his PED history, they would be nuts to resign him a second early.

I've covered the myth of the giant 2013 cap growth ground elsewhere. It's less than an 7% escalator which is more than absorbed by inherent escalation in salaries built into existing contracts.

I haven't done the math, but I think at this point, Barwin and Schaub can be built into the 2013 salary cap even with spectacular seasons which is why Mario, Demeco, and Erik are no longer here. I wouldn't overestimate Quin's salary potential as a non-playmaking safety and Cody and Caldwell have logical replacements already on the roster. Butler's fate has already been sealed in losing the job to Newton and Casey is 28 years old with 331 career yards and 1 TD so he's not even pushing Dreessen status yet. Bradie James is pretty much a one year rental to bridge to see if Sharpton is the guy or if we need to address in 2013 draft.
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canyon1


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 28, 2012 6:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Id let everyone from that group walk except for some reason i think we should keep Casey .... Owen might be expendable depending on how Casey and Graham do this season ... I would rather have Casey for a lower cap hit then Owen because less of an injury risk ... Just my opinion
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canyon1


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 28, 2012 6:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Except for Barwin and Schaub of course
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Wolf6151


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2012 1:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Apollo Stallion wrote:

Owen Daniels is under contract for $4 million in 2013 & $4.5 million in 2014, with a $3 million hit if we cut him in 2013 and $1.5 million if we cut him in 2014 (told you folks it was a terrible deal when we did it).

Antonio Smith is signed for 2013 for $6 million with a $2.5 million hit if we cut him. If you can find a vet that makes the kind of impact Antonio does for $3.5 million, show me.


Thanks for posting the specifics of the contracts. I previously thought that Smith was prime for a salary cap cut at the end of this season and that OD was a possibility as well. With numbers like those I think it's pretty safe both will be back in 2013. I'm thinking McNair doesn't like paying dead money. It also takes 2 positions off the list of possible draft needs next year.
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Apollo Stallion


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2012 12:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wolf6151 wrote:
Apollo Stallion wrote:

Owen Daniels is under contract for $4 million in 2013 & $4.5 million in 2014, with a $3 million hit if we cut him in 2013 and $1.5 million if we cut him in 2014 (told you folks it was a terrible deal when we did it).

Antonio Smith is signed for 2013 for $6 million with a $2.5 million hit if we cut him. If you can find a vet that makes the kind of impact Antonio does for $3.5 million, show me.


Thanks for posting the specifics of the contracts. I previously thought that Smith was prime for a salary cap cut at the end of this season and that OD was a possibility as well. With numbers like those I think it's pretty safe both will be back in 2013. I'm thinking McNair doesn't like paying dead money. It also takes 2 positions off the list of possible draft needs next year.


There are some tricks you can play with the cap depending on when you cut players. If you cut before June 1, you take the entire hit in 2013. If you cut after June 1st, you only take the current year proration in 2013 and all remaining years in 2014. Doesn't effect Antonio since he only has one year remaining, but if you cut OD after June 1 2013 you take $1.3 hit in 2013 and $1.3 in 2014 which doesn't create too much dead space. We cut Jacoby and Winston and traded DeMeco in March to take the entire hit this season vs. creating dead space next year when we'll need everything we can for Schaub/Barwin.

It's also worth noting that player salaries are 100% guaranteed if they are on the week 1 roster and thus cutting them later results in dead space which is already significant this season with the trades/cuts. It would not shock me to see some borderline vets like Beck, Ball, Nolan, Norris, exposed to waivers for week 1 then resigned. It's a bit of a calculated risk, but it increases in season cap flexibility. I also do NOT expect us to sign any other Free Agents between cutdown day and week 1 as we have in the past like with Leinart.
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mse326


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2012 1:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Apollo Stallion wrote:
Antonio Smith is signed for 2013 for $6 million with a $2.5 million hit if we cut him. If you can find a vet that makes the kind of impact Antonio does for $3.5 million, show me.


That is a bit of a red herring. You don't have to find someone that has the SAME impact as him for only $3.5M.

The relevant question, from a value standpoint, is whether $2.5M+salary of replacement can get someone whose impact is greater than the difference between $6M and that salary.

For example. Let's just say Crick plays a decent amount and shows to be very good. Not quite Antonio's level, but still very good. You look at $2.5M (the amount for Smith commited regardless) + Crick's cap hit ($.578M) = a little more than $3M. So from value you'd have to ask is Antonio Smith $3M ($6M (what his cap hit would be)-$3M (what we committ to the position)) better than Crick. If he is then you keep him. If not then you can release him and are gaining value. You may not have quite the same impact but impact per cap hit is higher. Then you can committ that $3M saved to upgrade elsewhere.

Now don't take this to say that we should release him, or that I'm saying Crick will reach the level necessary to make this relevant. I'm simply giving an example to show that your statement isn't strictly true. Using the example we may only go back say $1.5M in value at the DE position while being able to increase the value of another position by $3M. So we ultimately come out ahead even if we are not "as strong" at the DE position.
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jargin


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2012 2:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mse326 wrote:
Apollo Stallion wrote:
Antonio Smith is signed for 2013 for $6 million with a $2.5 million hit if we cut him. If you can find a vet that makes the kind of impact Antonio does for $3.5 million, show me.


That is a bit of a red herring. You don't have to find someone that has the SAME impact as him for only $3.5M.

The relevant question, from a value standpoint, is whether $2.5M+salary of replacement can get someone whose impact is greater than the difference between $6M and that salary.

For example. Let's just say Crick plays a decent amount and shows to be very good. Not quite Antonio's level, but still very good. You look at $2.5M (the amount for Smith commited regardless) + Crick's cap hit ($.578M) = a little more than $3M. So from value you'd have to ask is Antonio Smith $3M ($6M (what his cap hit would be)-$3M (what we committ to the position)) better than Crick. If he is then you keep him. If not then you can release him and are gaining value. You may not have quite the same impact but impact per cap hit is higher. Then you can committ that $3M saved to upgrade elsewhere.

Now don't take this to say that we should release him, or that I'm saying Crick will reach the level necessary to make this relevant. I'm simply giving an example to show that your statement isn't strictly true. Using the example we may only go back say $1.5M in value at the DE position while being able to increase the value of another position by $3M. So we ultimately come out ahead even if we are not "as strong" at the DE position.
That was a brilliant post.
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