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SaveourSonics
Joined: 20 Apr 2008
Posts: 45445
Location: Sleepless in Seattle
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 Posted: Tue Jun 12, 2012 10:23 pm Post subject: SoS's Fantasy Questions: Green Bay Packers |
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How's it going guys!? I'm sure many of you know me as the rambunctious Seattle homer that posts way too much.
Well in my spare time during this time of the season I usually run a Fantasy Football Advice thread for those of you that are into that kinda thing. Check out the 2012 thread I'll be making soon!
Anyways, I just had a few questions to ensure that I'm not ignorant with any advice I provide this offseason. That's why I've come up with a batch of clarifying questions for all 32 teams and getting my facts straight. Thanks to everyone that helps in advance!
Questions
1. The Packers are obviously a throwing team. Why should fantasy owners feel comfortable drafting James Starks as a #3 RB?
2. A big part of Nelson's fantasy success from last season came from his high TD total. Is it realistic to expect that from him again? If not, does he still deserve to be taken amongst the top 12 WRs?
3. I know how much we all love Jermichael Finley. Why should we expect him to produce where he fell short last year? How do you expect the targets to be divided between the top targets on this offense?
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Richard D!ck Sherman 4 Prez |
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incognito_man
Joined: 11 Jan 2007
Posts: 26369
Location: Madison
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| Posted: Tue Jun 12, 2012 10:26 pm Post subject: |
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| you guys play FF in france? |
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I Am Rodgers
Joined: 19 Jan 2009
Posts: 6394
Location: New Jersey
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| Posted: Tue Jun 12, 2012 10:56 pm Post subject: |
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1. You shouldn't. #4/5 at best.
2. He won't. Top15ish WR though. 8-9 TD's this year.
3. He gets more TD's this year and fixes the drops. 1100Yds and 14 TDs. Breakout we've all been waiting for.
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| ChaRisMa wrote: | | I thought I was the only one adding three inches. |
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Sandybaby716
Joined: 11 Mar 2007
Posts: 3526
Location: Rhode Island
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| Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 12:11 am Post subject: |
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I wouldn't trust Starks. In fact, I'd rather pass on him and his likely draft position and take a late flyer on Alex Green. You'll get better value that way.
Nelson should be able to continue to be a top ten fantasy WR. His size makes him an ideal redzone threat. His speed makes him a constant threat for big scores. We have a goal-line package with only one WR. He's the one. He also had 1100 yards last season, which should remain steady even if he drops down to ten TDs. I'd pass on Jennings in round two for Nelson in round 4.
Finley is tough. He obviously has the talent to warrant an early selection in fantasy. The problem is he was so disappointing last season, especially considering how high a percentage of his production came in the first Bears game. Play him by ear in the draft; if he starts falling too far, you could get great value. Take him too early and you could waste a 3rd round pick.
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| wgbeethree wrote: | | In all fairness it is kind of rude to just lay injured at their feet while the Lions defensive players are trying to hold a completely unrelated dance party. |
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USMC_PackFan
Joined: 27 Feb 2006
Posts: 2943
Location: Camp Lejeune, NC
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| Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 11:38 am Post subject: |
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| Sandybaby716 wrote: | I wouldn't trust Starks. In fact, I'd rather pass on him and his likely draft position and take a late flyer on Alex Green. You'll get better value that way.
Nelson should be able to continue to be a top ten fantasy WR. His size makes him an ideal redzone threat. His speed makes him a constant threat for big scores. We have a goal-line package with only one WR. He's the one. He also had 1100 yards last season, which should remain steady even if he drops down to ten TDs. I'd pass on Jennings in round two for Nelson in round 4.
Finley is tough. He obviously has the talent to warrant an early selection in fantasy. The problem is he was so disappointing last season, especially considering how high a percentage of his production came in the first Bears game. Play him by ear in the draft; if he starts falling too far, you could get great value. Take him too early and you could waste a 3rd round pick. |
^^^Pretty much how I feel about it. I'll let someone else take a chance on Starks (unless he falls WAY past his ADP). Nelson most likely will not match last years production. However, I believe the drop off will be minimal. I'm counting on Finley's ADP being lower than it should so I can swoop him up later on. 
Wait a cotton pickin' minute! SOS is in a league with Mendeleev & myself! Man, I gotta feelin' that this whole thing is a phishing scam!!! 
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PackerBacker87 on the Sig
| Thrillhouse wrote: | | I like being called a "hater.".....I do hate the Bears. |
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byzr
Joined: 31 Jan 2005
Posts: 2761
Location: Kentucky
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| Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 2:30 pm Post subject: Re: SoS's Fantasy Questions: Green Bay Packers |
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| SaveourSonics wrote: |
Questions
1. The Packers are obviously a throwing team. Why should fantasy owners feel comfortable drafting James Starks as a #3 RB?
2. A big part of Nelson's fantasy success from last season came from his high TD total. Is it realistic to expect that from him again? If not, does he still deserve to be taken amongst the top 12 WRs?
3. I know how much we all love Jermichael Finley. Why should we expect him to produce where he fell short last year? How do you expect the targets to be divided between the top targets on this offense? |
i wouldn' draft a RB till at least the 3rd round. the Packers aren't the only passing team in the NFL the entire league has gone airborne. Starks value won't be much.
i'd look at Nelson as solid 4th or 5th round WR. he's surrounded by emerging talent in Cobb and Borrel as well as the already established Jennings, Driver, Jones,
Finley could be flying a little lower on everyone's radar now with the emergence of J. Graham, Gronk, and A. Hernandez. i think he'll have a solid season for a TE but might not be as big as Gronks last year. dividing the targets doesn't happen on this team Rodgers finds the open guy and hits him. every WR including Finley has about a better than sixty percent chance of scoring a TD on any given sunday... haha
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SaveourSonics
Joined: 20 Apr 2008
Posts: 45445
Location: Sleepless in Seattle
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| Posted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 3:17 pm Post subject: |
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| USMC_PackFan wrote: | | Wait a cotton pickin' minute! SOS is in a league with Mendeleev & myself! Man, I gotta feelin' that this whole thing is a phishing scam!!! |
You've always been able to read me like a book 
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Richard D!ck Sherman 4 Prez |
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Bizzle
Joined: 04 Jan 2010
Posts: 199
Location: Eau Cleazy
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| Posted: Thu Jun 14, 2012 12:26 am Post subject: |
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Something to think about with Starks. If he's falling on your draft day and you could get him at decent value I would. He is going to be the guy early on in the year, while Alex Green is healing, and should produce decently. After his early success you could look to move him for someone who has stared slow, knowing that later in the year it will be a committee approach with Green and Starks.
I look for Nelson to drop off a bit. 900 yards and 9 tds. is my guess. I just feel like Finley's numbers will be up a little from last year, and so will Cobbs. Its so hard to predict the receiving numbers on this team. I expect for the Packers to work the the middle of the field early on this year until a team proves they can take it away. This would mean more targets for Finley and Cobb in particular.
Finley is an enigma by design, I really think some games teams just plan to take him away and Aaron makes decisions so quickly that he doesnt come back to him. Finley will get his this year if he's healthy, the emergence of a strong slot option opposite him can only help keep coverage off a little. I expect about a 15% increase in his numbers.
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Abalow7
Joined: 22 Mar 2010
Posts: 248
Location: New Richmond, WI
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| Posted: Wed Jun 27, 2012 3:07 am Post subject: |
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If your league has surpassed the dark ages and have done away with the horrible archaic snake draft yet, (all my re-draft leagues have gone to the auction format- yours should too!) I would put a max value on these guys working with a cap of 100 dollars
Assuming Passing TDs are 6 pts (the way it was meant to be!)
Aaron Rodgers - 55
James Starks - 5
Alex Green - 4
Brandon Saine - 3
Greg Jennings - 25
Jordy Nelson - 25
James Jones - 5
Randall Cobb - 5
Jermichael FInley - 15
Mason Crosby - 3 (The ONLY kicker that should be worth more than 2 dollars!)
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packabacka19
Joined: 17 Apr 2007
Posts: 1945
Location: US
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| Posted: Wed Jun 27, 2012 5:08 am Post subject: |
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| Abalow7 wrote: | If your league has surpassed the dark ages and have done away with the horrible archaic snake draft yet, (all my re-draft leagues have gone to the auction format- yours should too!) I would put a max value on these guys working with a cap of 100 dollars
Assuming Passing TDs are 6 pts (the way it was meant to be!)
Aaron Rodgers - 55
James Starks - 5
Alex Green - 4
Brandon Saine - 3
Greg Jennings - 25
Jordy Nelson - 25
James Jones - 5
Randall Cobb - 5
Jermichael FInley - 15
Mason Crosby - 3 (The ONLY kicker that should be worth more than 2 dollars!) |
What do you have against snake draft? Much more fun IMO. And just as fair.
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| Packman_Luke wrote: | | I ignored the Favre issue before ignoring the Favre issue was cool. Now that it's retro I debate Favre ironically. |
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