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Ray Rice: 1000-1000?

 
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Can Rice be the third back to record 1,000/1,000 rush/rec?
Very likely
11%
 11%  [ 1 ]
I could see it happening
33%
 33%  [ 3 ]
Same chance as any other dual-threat back
22%
 22%  [ 2 ]
Not very likely
33%
 33%  [ 3 ]
Absolutely not happening
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
Total Votes : 9

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sp6488


Joined: 14 Mar 2005
Posts: 8842
Location: MD
PostPosted: Wed Jun 20, 2012 10:36 am    Post subject: Ray Rice: 1000-1000? Reply with quote

Figured I would post something to liven things up a bit around here. Every time I check in here it seems that there hasn't been any new posting in a while. Anyway, Ray Rice is one of my favorite Ravens and I really hope we lock him up long-term (that's a whole different discussion, though). I was wondering, what do you guys think his chances of being the 3rd back to have 1,000 yards rushing/receiving in the same year?

Past RB's to accomplish:
Roger Craig (1985): 1,050 Rushing/1,016 Receiving
Marshall Faulk (1999): 1,381 Rushing/1,048 Receiving

He's one of the best (THE best IMO) pass catching backs in the league. Conventional wisdom says that a better overall passing game will lead to lower receiving totals for a RB. I think in Rice's case, results may be different, though. I think that he is such a good route runner and has such good hands he is utilized on underneath routes moreso than as simply a safety valve. As Flacco gets better at connecting with Smith/Jones deep and TE's/Q in the intermediate space (hopefully with help from better use of talent by Cam), then we will see Rice abusing LB's underneath, easily racking up 10 yards a catch. Both Craig and Faulk were on incredibly efficient offenses, so I think an improved Ravens offense will actually inflate Rice's pass catching numbers.

Rice's last three seasons (receiving):
rec/yards/ypc/td/lng/rpg/ypg
78/702/9.0/1/63/4.9/43.9
63/556/8.8/1/34/3.9/34.8
76/704/9.3/3/52/4.8/44.0

Based on these numbers, using his ypc for the last three years (9.041), he would need ~111 catches to reach the 1,000 yard mark. So, Rice will probably need to have a boost to his per catch numbers to actually reach that milestone, which I don't think is too far-fetched considering that we see him split out wide and Flacco able to connect with him on deeper patterns (especially last season), rather than a short curl route or something in the flat. For comparison, here are the catches, yards, etc. for Craig and Faulk's 1,000 yard seasons:

Craig: 92/1016/11.0/6/73/5.8/63.5
Faulk: 87/1048/12.0/5/73/5.4/65.5

Thoughts?
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Flaccomania


Joined: 12 Aug 2008
Posts: 22617
Location: Parkville, MD
PostPosted: Wed Jun 20, 2012 11:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Possible? Sure. Likely? Not really. He'd need to take a few of them to the house for big plays which really isn't his forte -- he's more of a make 2 yards turn into 10 kind of guy.
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sp6488


Joined: 14 Mar 2005
Posts: 8842
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 20, 2012 12:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Flaccomania wrote:
Possible? Sure. Likely? Not really. He'd need to take a few of them to the house for big plays which really isn't his forte -- he's more of a make 2 yards turn into 10 kind of guy.


You're right in that he is more shifty and elusive (with some underrated strength) than outright fast. The one thing he has going for him, though, is that he is such a good receiver. His ability to run routes and catch the ball like a receiver allows him to beat some LB's and catch longer passes from Flacco.

http://youtu.be/Uf0yJDNzn_E?t=48s
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Flaccomania


Joined: 12 Aug 2008
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 20, 2012 1:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

sp6488 wrote:
Flaccomania wrote:
Possible? Sure. Likely? Not really. He'd need to take a few of them to the house for big plays which really isn't his forte -- he's more of a make 2 yards turn into 10 kind of guy.


You're right in that he is more shifty and elusive (with some underrated strength) than outright fast. The one thing he has going for him, though, is that he is such a good receiver. His ability to run routes and catch the ball like a receiver allows him to beat some LB's and catch longer passes from Flacco.

http://youtu.be/Uf0yJDNzn_E?t=48s


No doubt. My point was more to him needing to break a few more of them into homeruns than he has in the past if he wants to get up near 1000 yards receiving, which he's certainly capable of, but I question the likelihood.
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dcarey20


Joined: 15 Feb 2006
Posts: 7257
PostPosted: Wed Jun 20, 2012 8:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I really doubt it. Not because Rice wouldn't be capable, but because I just don't think he'll be utilized the way that he would have to be to get those numbers.

In regards to Faulk, that was a completely different offense from what the Ravens will show this coming year, and really completely different from any offense.

Faulk played in an offense where there were really only 4 pass catchers: himself, Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce, and Az Hakim. The tight ends weren't areas of concern, which is much different from ours as you can legitimately expect at least 80 catches from Dickson and Pitta combined.

And the Rams threw ALL the time. Faulk was really around something like 200-250 carries a year, and they'd throw to him over 100 times. Rice is likely a 300+ carry guy, and we just run the ball a lot more. Then you throw in Smith and Boldin who will probably both get at least 60 a piece, and maybe 20-30 for a guy like Jones.

Not to mention that the Rams split Marshall Faulk out wide a good amount. I've rarely if ever seen Rice motion out to the slot or the outside. Rice will probably have around his usual 70 catches, and for a running back, that's not nearly enough to get 1000.
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diamondbull424


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Location: Baltimore, MD
PostPosted: Thu Jun 21, 2012 9:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have to agree with consensus opinion on the results. Rice would need to have insane and career best production as a vertical receiving threat. I think his best bet would be to have a game like Torrey Smith had with the Rams, he'd need to have a game where he just completely dominates and everything goes his way in the receiving game with long receptions... That way assuming his stats are consistent with his past results, he'd be able to get close... Actually he'd probably need two games where he goes for solid buck-fifty or so..

If its true that we may be installing some wildcat looks into our offense for Tyrod Taylor to run, it could help Rice in that regard. A couple trick play passes to Rice deep could be just what he needs to inflate his numbers some.

Personally though, I'd rather Rice not reach that milestone.. Unless he's carrying the ball much less (because Bernard Pierce is excelling with his touches as a runner) and the reason being because too many touches for Rice- especially with how much weight he's been carrying over the years could adversely affect his ability to produce in the future.
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SnA ExclusiVe


Joined: 01 Jun 2011
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 22, 2012 4:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

No.

Why? Cam Cameron.
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