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SoS's Fantasy Questions: San Diego Chargers

 
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SaveourSonics


Joined: 20 Apr 2008
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Location: Sleepless in Seattle
PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2012 9:26 pm    Post subject: SoS's Fantasy Questions: San Diego Chargers Reply with quote

How's it going guys!? I'm sure many of you know me as the rambunctious Seattle homer that posts way too much.

Well in my spare time during this time of the season I usually run a Fantasy Football Advice thread for those of you that are into that kinda thing. Check out the 2012 thread I'll be making soon!

Anyways, I just had a few questions to ensure that I'm not ignorant with any advice I provide this offseason. That's why I've come up with a batch of clarifying questions for all 32 teams and getting my facts straight. Thanks to everyone that helps in advance!

Questions
1. Phillip Rivers had a down year in 2011 and has since lost Vincent Jackson. Where do you guys believe he'll end up this year and why?

2. Robert Meachem is currently the highest rated Chargers WR in fantasy circles but Malcolm Floyd may have something to say about that. Who do you envision having the better season and should Vincent Brown be brought into the discussion?

3. Ryan Mathews and Antonio Gates are two players that have injury flags against them. Tell me why a fantasy owner should feel comfortable taking either player early or if they shouldn't?
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lakeroy


Joined: 03 Apr 2011
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2012 10:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

1. I think he'll end up at or near the top of the league. I think his struggles last year were due to the bad Oline play but with a full season of Gaither he should play like his normal self. He didn't have VJ in 2010 and it didn't matter.

2. I envision Meachem having the better season because unlike Floyd he isn't injury prone and Norv has basically said that he is the #1 WR. I would rather have Brown than Floyd, but not Meachem.

3. I would feel comfortable taking Mathews because, while he may have an injury history, he still has got to be one of the top RB options this year; he has no one to challenge him for carries and has as much talent as anyone. It's not like he's made of glass or anything, he just might miss a game here and there. I'm not sure if I would feel comfortable taking Gates. It would depend on which round it is. He reportedly is healthy now, but that can always change.
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BoltsFan937


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 4:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

1. I would expect rivers to have somewhat of a bounce back year. However, I expect the chargers to lean more on mathews this year and pound around the goalline with mcclain. I would lump rivers in with the matt ryans, ben roethlisbergers, jay cutlers of the world. But not elite, like aaron rodgers, brady or brees numbers

2. I personally wouldn't touch the receivers. The ball gets spread around too much in this offense to rely on anyone. Floyds injuries will drive you mad. Go with meachem but only for bench depth, not a one or two imo

3. Gates injuries still scare me and I wouldn't waste an early pick on him. I feel strong about mathews breaking out this year. He can be on the field all three downs now and is in shape with more muscle this year. Hopefully his offseason work will pay dividends
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Stone85


Joined: 30 Jun 2010
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 11:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Don't worry about Rivers. He will definitely be better this year. He was playing through injury last year and his #1 WR wasn't trying very hard. This will be a bounce back year for him for sure. I would take Romo over Rivers in fantasy football, but Rivers is right behind, and in front of both Mannings.

Malcolm Floyd is a solid FF bench WR. I'd take him over Meachem in FF in a heart beat because he's proven here and he will score more touchdowns. Malcolm Floyd and Santana Moss are great bench WRs IMO, I have either one of them in all 4 of my leagues. (so far)

Gates is with out question the #3 tight end this year. Gronk is first by a mile, Graham is second, and Gates really isn't too far behind in my opinion. Gates will way outperform VD, the #4 TE.
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Frankie2Gunz


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 12:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I am going to touch only the Mathews question. I think the RM hype machine is in full effect and I can see why. I watched him play at Fresno State and have seen him play in SD. He has mad skills no denying that but I do have a few questions about him.

Everyone wants to believe that he will be a top 5 RB this season but as anyone who has watched football for any perisod of time knows that is no easy task. To consistantly take the gringing and beating an NFL back takes is hard, when the game is on the line and the team is relying on RM to tote the rock time after time can he do it? Has he proven that he can play through nagging injuries that other lead rushers have in the past. So far the answer is no and that would scare me if I was a SD fan. His ability to pick up the blitz and his pass blocking skills are unproven at best and was one of the main reasons that Tolbert was on the field so much last year. RM also never had to take the goal line beatings last year, the tough yards in the trencehs. Can he do it and not tap out?

I could go on and on with the questions but I would be a bit scared if I was a SD fan. You have no depth behind an unproven player at a key position on this team. If he goes down your team is in deep trouble considering how bad your reciving core is. Rivers is a very good QB but can only do so much considering the talent around him...
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Strawman Theory


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 12:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

1. The Wide Receiver corps built by AJ Smith in the offseason has a more diverse set of skills. This will hopefully lead to less long waits in the pocket for Rivers as the play develops. I expect Rivers to be in the top 10 point scorers for FF from the QB position.

2. I would not touch Malcom Floyd with a 10 round pole based on his injury history. Robert Meachem possesses a lot of the same qualities that made Vincent Jackson successful in this offense, question will be "can he have that instantaneous success?" and that is something that rarely happens at the WR position. Vincent Brown looks to me as having a niche role in the offense, potential for 400-500 yards.

3. Ryan Mathews is what everyone thought Adrian Peterson was going to be coming out of college. There are less risky options that will put up similar numbers, grab him if he slides.
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Duffman57


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 5:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Frankie2Gunz wrote:
I am going to touch only the Mathews question. I think the RM hype machine is in full effect and I can see why. I watched him play at Fresno State and have seen him play in SD. He has mad skills no denying that but I do have a few questions about him.

Everyone wants to believe that he will be a top 5 RB this season but as anyone who has watched football for any perisod of time knows that is no easy task. To consistantly take the gringing and beating an NFL back takes is hard, when the game is on the line and the team is relying on RM to tote the rock time after time can he do it? Has he proven that he can play through nagging injuries that other lead rushers have in the past. So far the answer is no and that would scare me if I was a SD fan. His ability to pick up the blitz and his pass blocking skills are unproven at best and was one of the main reasons that Tolbert was on the field so much last year. RM also never had to take the goal line beatings last year, the tough yards in the trencehs. Can he do it and not tap out?

I could go on and on with the questions but I would be a bit scared if I was a SD fan. You have no depth behind an unproven player at a key position on this team. If he goes down your team is in deep trouble considering how bad your reciving core is. Rivers is a very good QB but can only do so much considering the talent around him...


I was with you.....until the bolded. We may have the best 4 deep WR corps in the NFL, not including our primary target in Gates. When you have a battle of Eddie Royal and Vincent Brown for your 3rd WR spot, you're in REAL good shape. Eddie Royal is so underrated its crazy. Had he been in Denver 1 more year, he very well might've been a 1000 yd receiver. He's going to be crazy good this year.

We were known for having a top WR corps last year, and we traded Jackson (who was severely worse last year), and Crayton for Meachem and Royal is definitely nothing more than a wash, and then Brown gets his first full year in the NFL. In our system, there isn't really a true #1 WR, the #1 receivers Job is strictly to stretch the field deep, clearing the middle for the TE/slot/RB that we love to throw to and block well, 2 things that Meachem excels at. He's absolutely an upgrade from Jackson in that catagory, but doesn't bring the strength that Jackson did, which is the only reason he did well last year, VJ didn't look like he could seperate at all last year, which Meachem can VERY well. Floyd will have a mixture of going over the middle and going deep, something that Vincent Brown will absolutely be able to do if he goes down. And then you finally have Royal, as more or less a Sproles replacement, where he can kind of sit on those short routs and when he gets the ball short, he can turn them into big plays. Brown is a jack of all trades, great possession receiver, works the middle really well, with glue hands, but he surprised me last year getting deep a few times.

The big thing that we added this year is SPEED. Last year we were a big bulky offense that really didn't scare you because we couldn't stretch anything short into a long play, no long runs, no dumpoffs to big plays, and only 1 or 2 big pass plays with any YAC at all.

This receiving corps will be a top 5 unit by the end of the year at the least. Book it.

To get back on topic, in terms of fantasy value however, i wouldn't put a lot of stock in any Chargers receivier other than Gates because we're gonna spread the ball around so much that we're not really going to have one guy who's gonna rack up points.

As for the RB depth. We also now have Ronnie Brown, who may or may not have something left. We shall see. This is the first offseason that Mathews has had a real full offseason and has bulked up his lower body to cut out some of those niks and bumps that he cant seem to go with.

As for Rivers turnaround. Look no further than Eddie Royal. Last year we were missing any short dumpoff option. Thats why Sproles was so good, because we went deep so often, when we went deep Sproles was a perfect backup option. We didn't have that short dumpoff guy this year. Last year Rivers tried to do too much and made a lot of mistakes in forcing balls, on balls that he would've normally had faith in Sproles to dump off and get a solid play, i dont think he had faith in any of our short options last year. Add to the fact that VJ last year no longer commanded a S over the top last year (watch the film, teams weren't really threatened by him enough to put a S over top anymore, which really put a hurt on Rivers not having a wide open middle of the field. Meachem is a tougher cover at this point in his career than VJ was last year because of that speed, which does command S help over the top.

While we lost the big name guy here, we, overall, have a MUCH more talented group. Plain and Simple.
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The LBC


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2012 2:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rivers will rebound, I'm certain of that. Will that lead to a Highest-of-the-High QB tier performance... maybe, maybe not. It's really going to come down to the format of your league. He'll be more consistent than most in terms of production, but if your league is at all like my big money league and puts a major premium on TD's in the scoring then there are at least 6+ QB's I'd draft ahead of Philip (possibly 7 or Cool. He'll go as far as Gates goes until he clearly defines another red zone option past that (Tolbert gone, I wan to see if Landry, Royal, or Green can establish themselves as the short-screen guy that has typically garnered a lot of River's TD production of late... and the preseason will be telling). The INT's will go down this season, but I wouldn't be expecting a 2009 campaign unless our defense is complete crap (have to remember that we were throwing a TON because we had next to no running game that year and our defense was pretty blah until well past our bye week).

Floyd's biggest boon is going to be if he becomes Red Zone option #2 (beyond Gates) for Rivers. I might take a flier on him in a TD-heavy league, but past that I really wouldn't rate him that highly because ,as other have mentioned, the injury concerns aren't an "if" they're really a matter of "when". He will get injured, the guy simply hasn't played a fully 16 for us in his tenure. Brown might be worth a speculative look if Floyd or Meachem gets banged up in the preseason, but Royal's going to be used in a Sproles-ish role with a fair amount of designed screens and dumps going his way, so he could be a sneaky candidate to spend a last round bench spot on to see if he booms.

As far as Gates and Mathews, it really depends on what you consider "early". TD heavy leagues you might give them a bit earlier look, but Gates is likely going to come off the board after both Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham this year, so I'd keep an eye on him. I certainly wouldn't select him in the same round as those guys, but if he starts to slip because people are concerned about his injury concerns and you can get him 2-3 rounds after those guys... I'd certainly take the chance on him. I know some folks don't like to roster two TE's but if you draft from the the right teams, you can often end up with a 2nd TE that's just as consistent as your WR4. So it really depends on your philosophy - unless I can get a guy know is going to notch a ton of TD's from the position and who is his QB's primary or secondary look in the red zone I typically just opt to wait till the later rounds and work the speculative guys at the position (this has worked pretty well for me in past years as I've managed to get by just fine on the rookie Hernandez's and Jake Ballard's of the free agent pool). The fact is, even if he only plays 12-13 games, Gates is likely to produce in those games as much as your Tony Gonzalez's, Jermaine Gresham's, Brandon Pettigrew's, and Zach Miller's are. I'd probably move someone like Vernon Davis above Gates, but I'd still consider Gates and Witten to be a wash and I'd draft Gates ahead of a number of also-rans like Finley, Lewis, Winslow, Olsen, etc.

Mathews... I wouldn't draft in the 1st unless you've got the swing pick and you can effectively snag two borderline-#1's and have a #1-boy-committee in a 2+ RB team. He's going to get the carries, but he is likely to miss a game or two along the way, and still has some concerns in term of ball security. I have him in my Top 10 fantasy RB's but not Top 5 (guys like Foster - who is just a consistent beast, McCoy and Rice - for their dual-threat contributions, Lynch - Carroll's system means he's going to get red-zone touches and get fair amount of touches otherwise, and Jackson - two words... Jeff Fisher, are too difficult to displace and that's before we even get into the recovering Peterson and Charles, the questions of continuing in MJD and CJ2K, and the perennial dark horse (who is always available and makes a great handcuff to Mathews because his consistency balances out Mathews' booms in that swing-pick position) in Fred Jackson. I'd prefer to target Mathews in the 2nd or 3rd rounds, but wouldn't have an issue with targeting him at that swing pick in the 1st depending on league format (in TD-heavy leagues, you should be drafting an elite QB in the 1st if at all possible because they're far more likely to be worth the position picked in - a Brady, Brees, Rodgers, even Stafford's avg weekly output is likely to exceed that of any RB in that format).
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Frankie2Gunz


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 16, 2012 1:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The LBC wrote:
Rivers will rebound, I'm certain of that. Will that lead to a Highest-of-the-High QB tier performance... maybe, maybe not. It's really going to come down to the format of your league. He'll be more consistent than most in terms of production, but if your league is at all like my big money league and puts a major premium on TD's in the scoring then there are at least 6+ QB's I'd draft ahead of Philip (possibly 7 or Cool. He'll go as far as Gates goes until he clearly defines another red zone option past that (Tolbert gone, I wan to see if Landry, Royal, or Green can establish themselves as the short-screen guy that has typically garnered a lot of River's TD production of late... and the preseason will be telling). The INT's will go down this season, but I wouldn't be expecting a 2009 campaign unless our defense is complete crap (have to remember that we were throwing a TON because we had next to no running game that year and our defense was pretty blah until well past our bye week).

Floyd's biggest boon is going to be if he becomes Red Zone option #2 (beyond Gates) for Rivers. I might take a flier on him in a TD-heavy league, but past that I really wouldn't rate him that highly because ,as other have mentioned, the injury concerns aren't an "if" they're really a matter of "when". He will get injured, the guy simply hasn't played a fully 16 for us in his tenure. Brown might be worth a speculative look if Floyd or Meachem gets banged up in the preseason, but Royal's going to be used in a Sproles-ish role with a fair amount of designed screens and dumps going his way, so he could be a sneaky candidate to spend a last round bench spot on to see if he booms.

As far as Gates and Mathews, it really depends on what you consider "early". TD heavy leagues you might give them a bit earlier look, but Gates is likely going to come off the board after both Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham this year, so I'd keep an eye on him. I certainly wouldn't select him in the same round as those guys, but if he starts to slip because people are concerned about his injury concerns and you can get him 2-3 rounds after those guys... I'd certainly take the chance on him. I know some folks don't like to roster two TE's but if you draft from the the right teams, you can often end up with a 2nd TE that's just as consistent as your WR4. So it really depends on your philosophy - unless I can get a guy know is going to notch a ton of TD's from the position and who is his QB's primary or secondary look in the red zone I typically just opt to wait till the later rounds and work the speculative guys at the position (this has worked pretty well for me in past years as I've managed to get by just fine on the rookie Hernandez's and Jake Ballard's of the free agent pool). The fact is, even if he only plays 12-13 games, Gates is likely to produce in those games as much as your Tony Gonzalez's, Jermaine Gresham's, Brandon Pettigrew's, and Zach Miller's are. I'd probably move someone like Vernon Davis above Gates, but I'd still consider Gates and Witten to be a wash and I'd draft Gates ahead of a number of also-rans like Finley, Lewis, Winslow, Olsen, etc.

Mathews... I wouldn't draft in the 1st unless you've got the swing pick and you can effectively snag two borderline-#1's and have a #1-boy-committee in a 2+ RB team. He's going to get the carries, but he is likely to miss a game or two along the way, and still has some concerns in term of ball security. I have him in my Top 10 fantasy RB's but not Top 5 (guys like Foster - who is just a consistent beast, McCoy and Rice - for their dual-threat contributions, Lynch - Carroll's system means he's going to get red-zone touches and get fair amount of touches otherwise, and Jackson - two words... Jeff Fisher, are too difficult to displace and that's before we even get into the recovering Peterson and Charles, the questions of continuing in MJD and CJ2K, and the perennial dark horse (who is always available and makes a great handcuff to Mathews because his consistency balances out Mathews' booms in that swing-pick position) in Fred Jackson. I'd prefer to target Mathews in the 2nd or 3rd rounds, but wouldn't have an issue with targeting him at that swing pick in the 1st depending on league format (in TD-heavy leagues, you should be drafting an elite QB in the 1st if at all possible because they're far more likely to be worth the position picked in - a Brady, Brees, Rodgers, even Stafford's avg weekly output is likely to exceed that of any RB in that format).


Great feedback but I have a specific question for you. I am in a 16 team league where we can keep 2 players. I was part of an expansion draft last seaon and took Megatron and Mathews as my 2 picks. I received a ton of flack for drafting RM over players like Hillis, P. Manning, Moreno, Felix Jones etc. but I am the one who is laughing now. Those 2 would be my 2 keepers but I worked a early season trade for CJ2K. I am going to keep Megatron but am torn between the 2 backs. I see that RM is riding the hype train bigtime and I have seen enough of him in college and the pros to know the guy has the skills to be elite.

CJ2K is a proven stud who doesnt have injury concerns and has a major chip on his shoulder this year. RM is 2 years younger and has been promised he will get the rock a ton this year but has major injury concerns and fumbling problems. I also question his ability to take a 16 game beating espicially with all of the goal line touches he will see. Those take a major toll on the body and he has shown that he has a low pain threshold in the past. That being said I am leaning towards CJ2K because the potential for him to bust is less and his injury concerns are less than RM in my opinion and I see their upside being about the same. Who would you keep and why????
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 16, 2012 3:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Frankie2Gunz wrote:
The LBC wrote:
Rivers will rebound, I'm certain of that. Will that lead to a Highest-of-the-High QB tier performance... maybe, maybe not. It's really going to come down to the format of your league. He'll be more consistent than most in terms of production, but if your league is at all like my big money league and puts a major premium on TD's in the scoring then there are at least 6+ QB's I'd draft ahead of Philip (possibly 7 or Cool. He'll go as far as Gates goes until he clearly defines another red zone option past that (Tolbert gone, I wan to see if Landry, Royal, or Green can establish themselves as the short-screen guy that has typically garnered a lot of River's TD production of late... and the preseason will be telling). The INT's will go down this season, but I wouldn't be expecting a 2009 campaign unless our defense is complete crap (have to remember that we were throwing a TON because we had next to no running game that year and our defense was pretty blah until well past our bye week).

Floyd's biggest boon is going to be if he becomes Red Zone option #2 (beyond Gates) for Rivers. I might take a flier on him in a TD-heavy league, but past that I really wouldn't rate him that highly because ,as other have mentioned, the injury concerns aren't an "if" they're really a matter of "when". He will get injured, the guy simply hasn't played a fully 16 for us in his tenure. Brown might be worth a speculative look if Floyd or Meachem gets banged up in the preseason, but Royal's going to be used in a Sproles-ish role with a fair amount of designed screens and dumps going his way, so he could be a sneaky candidate to spend a last round bench spot on to see if he booms.

As far as Gates and Mathews, it really depends on what you consider "early". TD heavy leagues you might give them a bit earlier look, but Gates is likely going to come off the board after both Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham this year, so I'd keep an eye on him. I certainly wouldn't select him in the same round as those guys, but if he starts to slip because people are concerned about his injury concerns and you can get him 2-3 rounds after those guys... I'd certainly take the chance on him. I know some folks don't like to roster two TE's but if you draft from the the right teams, you can often end up with a 2nd TE that's just as consistent as your WR4. So it really depends on your philosophy - unless I can get a guy know is going to notch a ton of TD's from the position and who is his QB's primary or secondary look in the red zone I typically just opt to wait till the later rounds and work the speculative guys at the position (this has worked pretty well for me in past years as I've managed to get by just fine on the rookie Hernandez's and Jake Ballard's of the free agent pool). The fact is, even if he only plays 12-13 games, Gates is likely to produce in those games as much as your Tony Gonzalez's, Jermaine Gresham's, Brandon Pettigrew's, and Zach Miller's are. I'd probably move someone like Vernon Davis above Gates, but I'd still consider Gates and Witten to be a wash and I'd draft Gates ahead of a number of also-rans like Finley, Lewis, Winslow, Olsen, etc.

Mathews... I wouldn't draft in the 1st unless you've got the swing pick and you can effectively snag two borderline-#1's and have a #1-boy-committee in a 2+ RB team. He's going to get the carries, but he is likely to miss a game or two along the way, and still has some concerns in term of ball security. I have him in my Top 10 fantasy RB's but not Top 5 (guys like Foster - who is just a consistent beast, McCoy and Rice - for their dual-threat contributions, Lynch - Carroll's system means he's going to get red-zone touches and get fair amount of touches otherwise, and Jackson - two words... Jeff Fisher, are too difficult to displace and that's before we even get into the recovering Peterson and Charles, the questions of continuing in MJD and CJ2K, and the perennial dark horse (who is always available and makes a great handcuff to Mathews because his consistency balances out Mathews' booms in that swing-pick position) in Fred Jackson. I'd prefer to target Mathews in the 2nd or 3rd rounds, but wouldn't have an issue with targeting him at that swing pick in the 1st depending on league format (in TD-heavy leagues, you should be drafting an elite QB in the 1st if at all possible because they're far more likely to be worth the position picked in - a Brady, Brees, Rodgers, even Stafford's avg weekly output is likely to exceed that of any RB in that format).


Great feedback but I have a specific question for you. I am in a 16 team league where we can keep 2 players. I was part of an expansion draft last seaon and took Megatron and Mathews as my 2 picks. I received a ton of flack for drafting RM over players like Hillis, P. Manning, Moreno, Felix Jones etc. but I am the one who is laughing now. Those 2 would be my 2 keepers but I worked a early season trade for CJ2K. I am going to keep Megatron but am torn between the 2 backs. I see that RM is riding the hype train bigtime and I have seen enough of him in college and the pros to know the guy has the skills to be elite.

CJ2K is a proven stud who doesnt have injury concerns and has a major chip on his shoulder this year. RM is 2 years younger and has been promised he will get the rock a ton this year but has major injury concerns and fumbling problems. I also question his ability to take a 16 game beating espicially with all of the goal line touches he will see. Those take a major toll on the body and he has shown that he has a low pain threshold in the past. That being said I am leaning towards CJ2K because the potential for him to bust is less and his injury concerns are less than RM in my opinion and I see their upside being about the same. Who would you keep and why????

It's an interesting conundrum. Both players have the potential to either wallow in mediocrity (for different reasons) or blast into the stratosphere of performances.

CJ2K played exceedingly better with Locker in the starting lineup last season, but he is still running behind what is a pretty bleh OL outside of the tackles (Hutch is a shell of his former self, Amano is trash, and Leroy Harris and Kyle DeVan don't exactly blow anyone's skirts up either. What this means is that there's massive potential for CJ to do his dancing act behind the line a ton waiting for holes to open that never do. Yes, Mathews has the injury concerns that will leave you with questions as to how much he'll be on the field, but at least he isn't carrying the baggage of outlying factors that could limit his potential to produce even if he is on the field.

Straight up, the two are almost a wash. I'd personally weigh two factors into my decision if I were you: Schedule (IMO San Diego has a more favorable one for RB's) and the likelihood in your specific league of a quality player sliding/slotting to you (particularly if you do an auction draft) if you let one particular one of the two hit the open market. Also work the format of your league... if CJ's likely to offer you a bit mroe in terms of receiving (if that pays out similar or better than running stats do), but Mathews may present a better statistical payoff in terms of TD's (no guarantee on that, as I could definitely see Norv leaning on McClain if RM struggles to punch things in early).

For your sake, I hope you don't draft or have to make a decision until at least halfway through the preseason (as most of my leagues do). Because that's where we'll hopefully see these questions answered in at least a little.
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