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SoS's Fantasy Questions: New England Patriots

 
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SaveourSonics


Joined: 20 Apr 2008
Posts: 45415
Location: Sleepless in Seattle
PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2012 7:10 pm    Post subject: SoS's Fantasy Questions: New England Patriots Reply with quote

How's it going guys!? I'm sure many of you know me as the rambunctious Seattle homer that posts way too much.

Well in my spare time during this time of the season I usually run a Fantasy Football Advice thread for those of you that are into that kinda thing. Check out the 2012 thread I'll be making soon!

Anyways, I just had a few questions to ensure that I'm not ignorant with any advice I provide this offseason. That's why I've come up with a batch of clarifying questions for all 32 teams and getting my facts straight. Thanks to everyone that helps in advance!

Questions
1. Rob Gronkowski had a historically dominant season last year and is the buzz of many fantasy drafts. TEs usually aren't selected as high as his current ADP is and I'm simply wondering if you guys think he can realistically reproduce the numbers he did last year?

2. Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, Brandon Lloyd, Deion Branch, Aaron Hernandez, etc. With all of these weapons, is there an odd man out? How do all of these separate targets effect a guy like Welker who is used to commanding a lot of targets? Can we expect Hernandez to be a top 7 TE again with all of these guys presumable above him on the pecking order?

3. Perhaps the biggest question of all: is there even a RB worth owning on this Patriots roster and who is it? Ridley is a guy I really like and looked good last season but Vereen was the higher draft choice. Are these guys going to be stealing carries from one another rendering both useless as fantasy backs or will one come out on top? With how much Brady threw last season, will it even matter who comes out on top?
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Richter


Joined: 11 Feb 2010
Posts: 11750
PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2012 7:26 pm    Post subject: Re: SoS's Fantasy Questions: New England Patriots Reply with quote

SaveourSonics wrote:
How's it going guys!? I'm sure many of you know me as the rambunctious Seattle homer that posts way too much.

Well in my spare time during this time of the season I usually run a Fantasy Football Advice thread for those of you that are into that kinda thing. Check out the 2012 thread I'll be making soon!

Anyways, I just had a few questions to ensure that I'm not ignorant with any advice I provide this offseason. That's why I've come up with a batch of clarifying questions for all 32 teams and getting my facts straight. Thanks to everyone that helps in advance!

Questions
1. Rob Gronkowski had a historically dominant season last year and is the buzz of many fantasy drafts. TEs usually aren't selected as high as his current ADP is and I'm simply wondering if you guys think he can realistically reproduce the numbers he did last year?

2. Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, Brandon Lloyd, Deion Branch, Aaron Hernandez, etc. With all of these weapons, is there an odd man out? How do all of these separate targets effect a guy like Welker who is used to commanding a lot of targets? Can we expect Hernandez to be a top 7 TE again with all of these guys presumable above him on the pecking order?

3. Perhaps the biggest question of all: is there even a RB worth owning on this Patriots roster and who is it? Ridley is a guy I really like and looked good last season but Vereen was the higher draft choice. Are these guys going to be stealing carries from one another rendering both useless as fantasy backs or will one come out on top? With how much Brady threw last season, will it even matter who comes out on top?

Until Gronkowski emerged last year, the only Patriot worth owning was Brady, and not much has changed. Welker is good in PPR leagues, but generally, I like him better as trade bait than as one of my top two receivers if he ends up on my roster. His TD production isn't elite, although it did see a nice bump last year. Lloyd will probably be a solid WR3 or 4. Hernandez is a borderline starter in a 10 team league, and a definite starter or at least rotational player in bigger leagues. I rode Gronkowski to a league title last year (and parlayed a pre-Manning injury Dallas Clark into other players to fill out my roster in the offseason), and I'm not moving him this year. I don't expect him to hit 1300+ yards and 18 total touchdowns this year, but 1100+ and 13+ TDs seems like a good bet. He and Jimmy Graham are the class of the position, and one of the best places to get a mismatch in your favor this year. I'd strongly consider investing in Hernandez as a backup at some point if you did get him, simply because his value would spike if Gronk got hurt. As for running backs, stay away. There's nothing there, unless either Ridley or Vereen establishes himself as the starter and gets over 60% of the snaps (which isn't happening this year).
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Jaymun


Joined: 16 Jan 2010
Posts: 1170
PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2012 7:27 pm    Post subject: Re: SoS's Fantasy Questions: New England Patriots Reply with quote

SaveourSonics wrote:
How's it going guys!? I'm sure many of you know me as the rambunctious Seattle homer that posts way too much.

Well in my spare time during this time of the season I usually run a Fantasy Football Advice thread for those of you that are into that kinda thing. Check out the 2012 thread I'll be making soon!

Anyways, I just had a few questions to ensure that I'm not ignorant with any advice I provide this offseason. That's why I've come up with a batch of clarifying questions for all 32 teams and getting my facts straight. Thanks to everyone that helps in advance!

Questions
1. Rob Gronkowski had a historically dominant season last year and is the buzz of many fantasy drafts. TEs usually aren't selected as high as his current ADP is and I'm simply wondering if you guys think he can realistically reproduce the numbers he did last year?

2. Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, Brandon Lloyd, Deion Branch, Aaron Hernandez, etc. With all of these weapons, is there an odd man out? How do all of these separate targets effect a guy like Welker who is used to commanding a lot of targets? Can we expect Hernandez to be a top 7 TE again with all of these guys presumable above him on the pecking order?

3. Perhaps the biggest question of all: is there even a RB worth owning on this Patriots roster and who is it? Ridley is a guy I really like and looked good last season but Vereen was the higher draft choice. Are these guys going to be stealing carries from one another rendering both useless as fantasy backs or will one come out on top? With how much Brady threw last season, will it even matter who comes out on top?


I'd say gronk is still a top-2 fantasy tight end, but probably lower numbers than last year. Lloyd will take looks away from him, McDaniels has historically used tight ends less, and those numbers were absolutely HUGE, and would be hard to replicate even with a good season.

Branch is definitely the odd man out of that group, he'll probably have a few decent weeks in PPR, but without any consistency or predictability.

I plan on taking a late-round flier on Ridley in a few leagues, but as usual it's probably not worth it taking a shot on a pats RB.
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mcmurtry86


Joined: 02 Mar 2010
Posts: 22301
PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2012 7:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

1. No, Gronkowski would be hard pressed to replicate his numbers even in another great year because last year's numbers (specifically the TD's) are rare and nearly impossible to achieve. Still worth owning and taking highly though IMO

2. Branch is the odd man out, he might not make the roster. I wouldn't be surprised to see Hernandez's productivity slip, then again I could make a case for his productivity to increase (if used more off-line and out of the backfield as the Pats did in the playoffs)

3. No. Neither Ridley nor Vereen are worth having.
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Sciz


Joined: 19 Jan 2009
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Location: Iowa
PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2012 7:47 pm    Post subject: Re: SoS's Fantasy Questions: New England Patriots Reply with quote

The only stat line I'm confident in for this coming season is Brady's. On paper, this has to be one of the best top-4 receiving groups of all time. That's good for him in fantasy, not good for all of those options. Welker's yardage is going to come down. Gronk's will probably come down a little. Hernandez should be about the same. Lloyd will be far more productive than Branch was last season, and Gaffney will be more productive than Ochocinco, and that yardage has to come at the expense of another player unless Brady is having a 5,500 yard season.

As far as targets, I'd say that Welker is clearly #1, Gronk clearly #2, Hernandez and Lloyd 3 and 4 in either order, and Gaffney most likely #5. I wouldn't expect Branch to even be active on game days as the #4 WR if that is in fact his role (which I'm not convinced of).

The Pats RBs are going to have games where you'll be really upset that you passed on them the whole draft (I bet Vereen has a 150 total yard, 2 TD game sometime this season), but they'll be too inconsistent week to week. If the passing game is as ridiculously awesome as I expect, then Ridley should get a lot of "4th quarter lead" carries, but I expect Vereen to do more earlier in the game. Even as the #1 back for most of the past two seasons, BJGE was held under 20 yards 8 times the past two seasons. That could easily be the case with either Vereen or Ridley multiple times this season (although hopefully not both at the same time).
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ctpatsfan77


Joined: 19 Nov 2007
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 11:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mcmurtry86 wrote:
1. No, Gronkowski would be hard pressed to replicate his numbers even in another great year because last year's numbers (specifically the TD's) are rare and nearly impossible to achieve. Still worth owning and taking highly though IMO


Here's the way I see it: GRONK will probably have fewer targets, but I wouldn't be surprised to see an improvement in his YAC and YPC.
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Deadpulse


Joined: 16 Oct 2008
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 16, 2012 9:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

mcmurtry86 wrote:
1. No, Gronkowski would be hard pressed to replicate his numbers even in another great year because last year's numbers (specifically the TD's) are rare and nearly impossible to achieve. Still worth owning and taking highly though IMO

2. Branch is the odd man out, he might not make the roster. I wouldn't be surprised to see Hernandez's productivity slip, then again I could make a case for his productivity to increase (if used more off-line and out of the backfield as the Pats did in the playoffs)

3. No. Neither Ridley nor Vereen are worth having.


These would be my answers as well. However, there has been a lot of hype surrounding Lloyd and how well he is syncing with Brady. Some people have gone as far as to pick a Moss ala 2007 from him, which is absurd but such high praise shouldnt go unchecked. I would suggest Lloyd as a high risk high reward once you fall out of the surefire (as surefire can be in fantasy) elite ranks at WR to take a chance on Lloyd.
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JaguarCrazy2832


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 29, 2012 2:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm a little surprised you guys think no RB is worth having. Not even in a 12 team league? Everything I've seen lately is saying how Ridley should get close to 1000 yards? Confused
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mcmurtry86


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 29, 2012 3:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

JaguarCrazy2832 wrote:
I'm a little surprised you guys think no RB is worth having. Not even in a 12 team league? Everything I've seen lately is saying how Ridley should get close to 1000 yards? Confused


Since Belichick took over in 2000, the Pats have only had 3 1,000 yard rushers:

Antowain Smith (1157 in 2001)
Corey Dillon (1635 in 2004)
BenJarvus Green-Ellis (1008 in 2010)

The chances that Ridley gets near or past 1000 are very slim. Most years, the Pats leading rusher has been between 700-850 yards. I don't see that being unlikely to change. The Pats also haven't used the "feature" backs much in the receiving game and they throw so much in the red-zone that it's unlikely Ridley will pile up the TD's.

I'd stay away unless you have a deep roster and want to take a chance.
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Richter


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 29, 2012 3:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

JaguarCrazy2832 wrote:
I'm a little surprised you guys think no RB is worth having. Not even in a 12 team league? Everything I've seen lately is saying how Ridley should get close to 1000 yards? :?

Ridley might be worth having as a depth option if he gets all the vulture scores from the passing offense that BJGE used to get. Problem is, you're going to want to play him based on matchups, and they never seem to work out when it comes to the Patriots. He'll probably have a game where he gets 3 touchdowns against the Jets or another solid defense, and barely touch the ball against a creampuff like the Rams.
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Deadpulse


Joined: 16 Oct 2008
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 07, 2012 5:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Richter wrote:
JaguarCrazy2832 wrote:
I'm a little surprised you guys think no RB is worth having. Not even in a 12 team league? Everything I've seen lately is saying how Ridley should get close to 1000 yards? Confused

Ridley might be worth having as a depth option if he gets all the vulture scores from the passing offense that BJGE used to get. Problem is, you're going to want to play him based on matchups, and they never seem to work out when it comes to the Patriots. He'll probably have a game where he gets 3 touchdowns against the Jets or another solid defense, and barely touch the ball against a creampuff like the Rams.


From what has come out of camp, Ridley could be a risk/reward flier type late in drafts when you are picking your bench players. He could be anywhere from a committee back who sees 33% of the touches. He could see 50% of touches because of short yardage and goal line work ala Green-Ellis. He could be the workhorse with only Woody to contend with in obvious passing situations. I would take a flier in the later rounds, he could wind up with sneaky fantasy value.
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