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Joe Flacco vs Tony Romo
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Who is better?
Flacco
22%
 22%  [ 28 ]
Romo
77%
 77%  [ 98 ]
Total Votes : 126

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fortdetroit


Joined: 27 Dec 2011
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PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2012 1:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

clutch does not exist. all it is is fallacy made up mostly from using such a small sample size in an evaluation. given a large enough sample size, a player will statistically revert much closer to the type of player they really are. when it comes to Romo, looking at 4 games in the playoffs to prove a point is way to small of a sample size to be meaningful in anyway. every qb in the league has probably had a rough patch of 4 games at one point in their careers. difference is, when it comes to romo and being in the playoffs he hasn't had enough games in his sample size to offset those few bad games he has had.

look at eli manning. after his first SB everyone was saying he was super clutch. so what happened in his next playoff run? he had a game against the eagles that was worse than any playoff game romo has ever played. did eli forget how to be clutch for that game or what? So, now after this SB run he is clutch again. WHat if he comes out next year and bombs in the playoffs? is he unclutch again?

tom brady, after those first 3 SB wins was considered Mr. Clutch. he started off 10-0 (3-0 in SB) (14 TD/3 INT) in the playoffs. since then he is 6-6 (0-2 in SB) (24 TD/17 INT) in the playoffs with more bad games than good games. he didn't become "unclutch" since his 10-0 start...it's just the case of water finding it's level which is what happens when the sample size gets larger and larger.
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fortdetroit


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PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2012 1:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Three players who probably have large enough sample sizes in the playoffs for their stats to mean something. They are not drastically different than their regular season career stats. (Obviously there will/may be some variation that is inherently random and also due to higher quality of opponents in the playoffs vs. the regular season easy teams but the numbers are in the same ballpark more or less). The sample size is still small enough that for Brady/Manning a really good or really bad game could still sway the playoff numbers somewhat drastically.

Montana:
Regular season: 63.2%, 7.5 YPA, 1.96 TD/INT Ratio, 92 QBR
Playoffs: 62.7%, 7.86 YPA, 2.14 TD/INT Ratio, 95 QBR

Elway:
RS: 57%, 7.1 YPA, 1.33 TD/INT Ratio, 80 QBR
PO: 55%, 7.0 YPA, 1.29 TD/INT Ratio, 80 QBR

Brady:
RS: 63.8%, 7.5 YPA, 2.6 TD/INT Ratio, 96 QBR
PO: 62.9%, 6.66 YPA, 1.9 TD/INT Ratio, 88 QBR

Peyton Manning:
RS: 65%, 7.6 YPA, 2.01 TD/INT Ratio, 95 QBR
PO: 63%, 7.5 YPA, 1.52 TD/INT Ratio, 88 QBR


Last edited by fortdetroit on Thu May 31, 2012 2:08 am; edited 1 time in total
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Steelerspower


Joined: 13 Jun 2011
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PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2012 2:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

fortdetroit wrote:
clutch does not exist. all it is is fallacy made up mostly from using such a small sample size in an evaluation. given a large enough sample size, a player will statistically revert much closer to the type of player they really are. when it comes to Romo, looking at 4 games in the playoffs to prove a point is way to small of a sample size to be meaningful in anyway. every qb in the league has probably had a rough patch of 4 games at one point in their careers. difference is, when it comes to romo and being in the playoffs he hasn't had enough games in his sample size to offset those few bad games he has had.

look at eli manning. after his first SB everyone was saying he was super clutch. so what happened in his next playoff run? he had a game against the eagles that was worse than any playoff game romo has ever played. did eli forget how to be clutch for that game or what? So, now after this SB run he is clutch again. WHat if he comes out next year and bombs in the playoffs? is he unclutch again?

tom brady, after those first 3 SB wins was considered Mr. Clutch. he started off 10-0 (3-0 in SB) (14 TD/3 INT) in the playoffs. since then he is 6-6 (0-2 in SB) (24 TD/17 INT) in the playoffs with more bad games than good games. he didn't become "unclutch" since his 10-0 start...it's just the case of water finding it's level which is what happens when the sample size gets larger and larger.


Except for Michael Jordan, no player can be perfect in clutch situations

But he have players that they have more success in the big game and in clutch situations

watch this video

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-network-total-access/09000d5d828312a5/The-NFL-s-clutch-performers?module=HP11_content_stream
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fortdetroit


Joined: 27 Dec 2011
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PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2012 2:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Steelerspower wrote:
fortdetroit wrote:
clutch does not exist. all it is is fallacy made up mostly from using such a small sample size in an evaluation. given a large enough sample size, a player will statistically revert much closer to the type of player they really are. when it comes to Romo, looking at 4 games in the playoffs to prove a point is way to small of a sample size to be meaningful in anyway. every qb in the league has probably had a rough patch of 4 games at one point in their careers. difference is, when it comes to romo and being in the playoffs he hasn't had enough games in his sample size to offset those few bad games he has had.

look at eli manning. after his first SB everyone was saying he was super clutch. so what happened in his next playoff run? he had a game against the eagles that was worse than any playoff game romo has ever played. did eli forget how to be clutch for that game or what? So, now after this SB run he is clutch again. WHat if he comes out next year and bombs in the playoffs? is he unclutch again?

tom brady, after those first 3 SB wins was considered Mr. Clutch. he started off 10-0 (3-0 in SB) (14 TD/3 INT) in the playoffs. since then he is 6-6 (0-2 in SB) (24 TD/17 INT) in the playoffs with more bad games than good games. he didn't become "unclutch" since his 10-0 start...it's just the case of water finding it's level which is what happens when the sample size gets larger and larger.


Except for Michael Jordan, no player can be perfect in clutch situations

But he have players that they have more success in the big game and in clutch situations

watch this video

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-network-total-access/09000d5d828312a5/The-NFL-s-clutch-performers?module=HP11_content_stream


Yes, because given a large enough sample size the player's statistics will more or less be in line with their career stats. Has nothing to do with being able to be perfect or not. water always finds it's leve. I could flip a coin 10 times and get 8 heads and 2 tails but if I keep flipping that coin the more I flip it the closer I wil get to 50/50.
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Onyxmeth


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PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2012 5:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

MaddHatter wrote:
Onyx - I have no qualm with someone suggesting Romo has had injuries as its obvious he has. But they aren't related and don't suggest a proness to future injury so other than its impact on past performance I do.t know why it would matter in a discussion in abilities going into this season. What were you referring to that brought that into play?
I was comparing him to Flacco. Injury history came up. Just because injuries aren't related doesn't mean a player isn't prone to injury. Romo's what now? 3 of the last 4 years? It's becoming a thing. Don't you feel there were potentially missed opportunities for the Cowboys because of this?
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RAVINGMADD


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PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2012 7:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

fortdetroit wrote:
clutch does not exist. all it is is fallacy made up mostly from using such a small sample size in an evaluation. given a large enough sample size, a player will statistically revert much closer to the type of player they really are. when it comes to Romo, looking at 4 games in the playoffs to prove a point is way to small of a sample size to be meaningful in anyway. every qb in the league has probably had a rough patch of 4 games at one point in their careers. difference is, when it comes to romo and being in the playoffs he hasn't had enough games in his sample size to offset those few bad games he has had.

look at eli manning. after his first SB everyone was saying he was super clutch. so what happened in his next playoff run? he had a game against the eagles that was worse than any playoff game romo has ever played. did eli forget how to be clutch for that game or what? So, now after this SB run he is clutch again. WHat if he comes out next year and bombs in the playoffs? is he unclutch again?

tom brady, after those first 3 SB wins was considered Mr. Clutch. he started off 10-0 (3-0 in SB) (14 TD/3 INT) in the playoffs. since then he is 6-6 (0-2 in SB) (24 TD/17 INT) in the playoffs with more bad games than good games. he didn't become "unclutch" since his 10-0 start...it's just the case of water finding it's level which is what happens when the sample size gets larger and larger.

I totally agree. For every guy people like to consider "clutch" there are several cases where they faltered and were very "unclutch" or "choked". How can it be attributed to a player when they can go both ways. Gaining the title of "clutch", especially in the NFL, is more about circumstance and luck than having "ice in the veins" or being able to handle pressure better than the next guy.
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Onyxmeth


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PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2012 9:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

RAVINGMADD wrote:
I totally agree. For every guy people like to consider "clutch" there are several cases where they faltered and were very "unclutch" or "choked". How can it be attributed to a player when they can go both ways. Gaining the title of "clutch", especially in the NFL, is more about circumstance and luck than having "ice in the veins" or being able to handle pressure better than the next guy.
So just to clarify your stance, a player can't be clutch because they can have "unclutch moments", so to explain what's going on, you say they are instead possessing the mystical explain-it-all buzzword called luck. How can a player be lucky though if they can have "unlucky moments"?
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fortdetroit


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PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2012 10:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Onyxmeth wrote:
RAVINGMADD wrote:
I totally agree. For every guy people like to consider "clutch" there are several cases where they faltered and were very "unclutch" or "choked". How can it be attributed to a player when they can go both ways. Gaining the title of "clutch", especially in the NFL, is more about circumstance and luck than having "ice in the veins" or being able to handle pressure better than the next guy.
So just to clarify your stance, a player can't be clutch because they can have "unclutch moments", so to explain what's going on, you say they are instead possessing the mystical explain-it-all buzzword called luck. How can a player be lucky though if they can have "unlucky moments"?


luck and unluckiness plays a bigger factor than many would ever admit. a player can be both lucky and unlucky depending on the game.

If a player truly is "clutch" he should be clutch all the time. If we're going to say he's "clutch" when he makes a big time play we need to be willing to say he is "not clutch" when he fails to make a big time play. And over a large enough sample size those "clutch" and "not clutch" moments are more or less going to even/level out to caliber of player that QB is (ie Tom Brady is going to have more clutch moments than Mark Sanchez).

Like I mentioned before...Tom Brady is a great example. Started off 10-0 and never failed in a clutch situation. Since then is 6-6 with more bad games than good and more failings in big moments than successes in big moments. If Wes Welker catches that ball Brady is likely "clutch" again. But he dropped it so Brady wasn't considered "clutch" in the SB.
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MaddHatter


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PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2012 10:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Flaccomania wrote:
MaddHatter wrote:
Flaccomania wrote:
MaddHatter wrote:
So you want ne to go with the idea that Romo is something that you can't even define or measure and will vary by each and every person?

So if Eli converts at 42% and Brady converts at 38% and Romo converts at 40% - I'm supposed to believe that 2 are clutch but 1 isn't?


I don't want you to do anything, just making a statement. You trying to quantify exactly what denotes "clutch" as if it is black and white and then assign statistics to it isn't going to work. You want numbers so you can analyze, those you're arguing against want tape so they can interpret.


Well let's put it this way - all the FACTS say he's clutch.

40% conversion rate of 4QC
Top 10 ACE Rating
2nd highest 4th QTR QBR
Elite Final 2min QBR
Elite Nov/Dec QBR
Great Games in 3 of the 4 "Big Games" since 08

You name it and he has it - all that is left is misguided perceptions

If you still believe Romo chokes then nothing short of a Lombardi will convince you and even then he'd still probably not get credit.


I'm not sure where you've gotten the idea that I believe Romo is not clutch. Certainly not from anything I've said.


More of a general "you" to people who believe he chokes than anything directed at you personally
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Flaccomania


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PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2012 10:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

MaddHatter wrote:
Flaccomania wrote:
MaddHatter wrote:
Flaccomania wrote:
MaddHatter wrote:
So you want ne to go with the idea that Romo is something that you can't even define or measure and will vary by each and every person?

So if Eli converts at 42% and Brady converts at 38% and Romo converts at 40% - I'm supposed to believe that 2 are clutch but 1 isn't?


I don't want you to do anything, just making a statement. You trying to quantify exactly what denotes "clutch" as if it is black and white and then assign statistics to it isn't going to work. You want numbers so you can analyze, those you're arguing against want tape so they can interpret.


Well let's put it this way - all the FACTS say he's clutch.

40% conversion rate of 4QC
Top 10 ACE Rating
2nd highest 4th QTR QBR
Elite Final 2min QBR
Elite Nov/Dec QBR
Great Games in 3 of the 4 "Big Games" since 08

You name it and he has it - all that is left is misguided perceptions

If you still believe Romo chokes then nothing short of a Lombardi will convince you and even then he'd still probably not get credit.


I'm not sure where you've gotten the idea that I believe Romo is not clutch. Certainly not from anything I've said.


More of a general "you" to people who believe he chokes than anything directed at you personally


Got ya. Was gonna say, I'm actually probably one of the bigger Romo supporters on the site outside of Dallas fans. Smile
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MaddHatter


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PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2012 1:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

MaddHatter wrote:
Shockey1979 wrote:
With Romo we've seen multiple times where that added pressure has affected him on different levels. Against the Seahawks he bobbled the snap that hit him square in the hands, Against the Giants he scrambled around took sacks got called for grounding and eventually threw a game ending INT. In the regular season he seems to handle these situations well. However with the weight of the season being on the line he's exhibited skiddish performance.


You ignore the fact he drove Dallas down the entire field in the final minutes of both games to setup the GW scores - why didn't the "added pressure" affect him then?

Why does the failures of others fall on his shoulders?

Why do all the other big game successes go ignored?

Sadly sir I'm afraid there can't be a serious discussionn had about Romo with you which is dissappintimg because you are one of my favorite posters.

Can we cut the crap and get to the truth? Romohas came up big in big games and he has faltered in others. He is by no means perfect but he doesn't choke and converts in "clutch" situations at a rate as high as nearly anyone.

How can he be clutch many times and be called a choker? Because everyone harps on the Seattle game (notice how it was the entire storyline of his top 100 video?)


So lets make sure were on the same page Shock...

Romo has come up big in "clutch" situations during the regular season and his team has won and lost games in those instances. Agreed?

So were limiting this to solely playoffs (not "must win" just playoffs)

In the 4 games since 2006 he had SEA, NY, PHI and MN

SEA - Leads a last minute drive 60yds downfield including a "clutch" 3rd ddown throw to soften for a 1st down and another "clutch" 3rd down throw to Soften to setup the GW FG. The only "unclutch" part was the bobbled snap. So its your contention that as a QB with tons of reads, decisions, and responsibility he was clutch bur then magically became overwhelmed by the moment in a simple catch-and-hold role? I disagree because if he was going to choke it'd be as a QB not as a holder.

NYG - again leads a last minute drive 60yds downfield and makes a "clutch" throw on 3rd down to Crayton for the GWTD but he cuts his route off and the ball goes to the endzone. He then finds the only WR in single coverage on 4th and Goal with 8 men in coverage and you call it "unclutch" because despite a good decision and a good throw, the defender makes a good play and we lose. I disagree there as well because if he was going to choke they wouldn't have been within a few yards of winning. That's like saying McNair wasn't clutch because Dyson cane up a yard short.

PHI - He dominated and utterly destroyed Philly for the 2nd ttime in 2 weeks - obviously was big in a big game

MN - The entire team was obliterated as our D gave up nearly 40pts to Grandpa Favre and our OL was destroyed by Allen, Williams, Williams and Edwards. Romo had 3 snaps from Gurode get botched, was tackled by his OL twice as they were shoved into him at the snap, and Romo didn't okay well the entire game. Again you say he choked but you also claim choking comes on critical plays and he didn't play worse on those plays than he did on others. A player shouldn't have bad games but we all know they do... if Josh Hamilton goes 0-4 in the World Series Game 7 did he choke or just have a bad game?

Anyways Shock you are adament that Romo is a choker - I don't even believe in clutch but by your definition and your criteria I have proven he's actually "clutch". Now if you want to rank players within the "clutch" category that's up to you but he's certainly in that category now.
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BlackandBlue


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PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2012 2:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

MaddHatter wrote:
MaddHatter wrote:
Shockey1979 wrote:
With Romo we've seen multiple times where that added pressure has affected him on different levels. Against the Seahawks he bobbled the snap that hit him square in the hands, Against the Giants he scrambled around took sacks got called for grounding and eventually threw a game ending INT. In the regular season he seems to handle these situations well. However with the weight of the season being on the line he's exhibited skiddish performance.


You ignore the fact he drove Dallas down the entire field in the final minutes of both games to setup the GW scores - why didn't the "added pressure" affect him then?

Why does the failures of others fall on his shoulders?

Why do all the other big game successes go ignored?

Sadly sir I'm afraid there can't be a serious discussionn had about Romo with you which is dissappintimg because you are one of my favorite posters.

Can we cut the crap and get to the truth? Romohas came up big in big games and he has faltered in others. He is by no means perfect but he doesn't choke and converts in "clutch" situations at a rate as high as nearly anyone.

How can he be clutch many times and be called a choker? Because everyone harps on the Seattle game (notice how it was the entire storyline of his top 100 video?)


So lets make sure were on the same page Shock...

Romo has come up big in "clutch" situations during the regular season and his team has won and lost games in those instances. Agreed?

So were limiting this to solely playoffs (not "must win" just playoffs)

In the 4 games since 2006 he had SEA, NY, PHI and MN

SEA - Leads a last minute drive 60yds downfield including a "clutch" 3rd ddown throw to soften for a 1st down and another "clutch" 3rd down throw to Soften to setup the GW FG. The only "unclutch" part was the bobbled snap. So its your contention that as a QB with tons of reads, decisions, and responsibility he was clutch bur then magically became overwhelmed by the moment in a simple catch-and-hold role? I disagree because if he was going to choke it'd be as a QB not as a holder.

NYG - again leads a last minute drive 60yds downfield and makes a "clutch" throw on 3rd down to Crayton for the GWTD but he cuts his route off and the ball goes to the endzone. He then finds the only WR in single coverage on 4th and Goal with 8 men in coverage and you call it "unclutch" because despite a good decision and a good throw, the defender makes a good play and we lose. I disagree there as well because if he was going to choke they wouldn't have been within a few yards of winning. That's like saying McNair wasn't clutch because Dyson cane up a yard short.

PHI - He dominated and utterly destroyed Philly for the 2nd ttime in 2 weeks - obviously was big in a big game

MN - The entire team was obliterated as our D gave up nearly 40pts to Grandpa Favre and our OL was destroyed by Allen, Williams, Williams and Edwards. Romo had 3 snaps from Gurode get botched, was tackled by his OL twice as they were shoved into him at the snap, and Romo didn't okay well the entire game. Again you say he choked but you also claim choking comes on critical plays and he didn't play worse on those plays than he did on others. A player shouldn't have bad games but we all know they do... if Josh Hamilton goes 0-4 in the World Series Game 7 did he choke or just have a bad game?

Anyways Shock you are adament that Romo is a choker - I don't even believe in clutch but by your definition and your criteria I have proven he's actually "clutch". Now if you want to rank players within the "clutch" category that's up to you but he's certainly in that category now.


This is why I don't take your arguments seriously. In the NFC title game Eli was under the same kind of durress from the SF defense, got hit time after time, had O lineman shoved backwards into him, etc.- and still played well given the circumstances. It's understandable for Romo to play badly, but Eli gets NO credit for weathering the storm? This makes no sense.
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MaddHatter


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PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2012 2:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

BandB - what do you mean no credit? I've said he's a top 6 QB so that sounds like a ton of credit
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Shockey1979


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PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2012 2:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

MaddHatter wrote:
BandB - what do you mean no credit? I've said he's a top 6 QB so that sounds like a ton of credit


And I've not only maintained Romo is top 7 but have actually defended him numerous times on this board. The only thing he's lacking is playing well in those high pressure situations when the season is on the line. You can spin it anyway you like. Doesn't change the truth or his track record.

I'll get to the rest of your posts later.
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MaddHatter


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PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2012 3:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Maybe you will finally address the fact that he has performed well in several (not all) games with the season on the line.
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