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| How long till the redskins make the playoffs with RG3? |
| 2012 |
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26% |
[ 7 ] |
| 2013 |
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53% |
[ 14 ] |
| 2014 |
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15% |
[ 4 ] |
| Longer |
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0% |
[ 0 ] |
| Never |
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3% |
[ 1 ] |
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| Total Votes : 26 |
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turtle28
Joined: 21 Nov 2007
Posts: 59718
Location: MD/DC/VA depends on the hr!
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 Posted: Thu Apr 12, 2012 3:04 pm Post subject: The Redskins future and reasonable Expectations |
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http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/56895/the-redskins-and-reasonable-expectations
In exactly two weeks the Washington Redskins will likely draft Robert Griffin III, who will become the face of our franchise and hopefully turn the team around into a winner year in, year out for a 10 to 15 years. This is something this organization has not seen since the late 70's through the early 90s.
The question is, what is a reasonable expectation for Griffin to turn this franchise around?
Do people expect it to be immediate? A two year turn around? A three year turn around? Or longer? (gosh I hope not).
| Quote: | Of our four examples, the 2011 Bengals asked the most of their rookie quarterback. They averaged 33.4 pass attempts per game, which ranked 20th in the league, and threw for 209.2 passing yards per game, which also ranked 20th. The other three examples on our list? They flat-out coddled their rookie quarterbacks by comparison:
2009 Jets: 24.6 att/gm (32nd), 162.3 pass yds/gm (31st)
2008 Ravens: 27.1 att/gm (T-29th), 185.7 pass yds/gm (28th)
2008 Falcons: 27.1 att/gm (T-29th), 215.0 pass yds/gm (17th
Ryan Kerrigan is part of an improving defense the Redskins might have to lean on during their new quarterback's rookie season. Now, Shanahan is a better-regarded offensive coach than any of the men who coached those teams. Rex Ryan of the Jets, in particular, believed he could win it all with defense, and very nearly did. Shanahan will design an offense in which Griffin can flourish, utilizing his arm and accuracy as well as his athleticism, speed and mobility. He'll design an offense in which Griffin works in concert with the run game, and in which each needs the other to thrive. Shanahan is likely to ask more of his offense than Ryan did of his in 2009, or than John Harbaugh did of his in 2008.
But the Redskins might find themselves limited in how quickly they can make it all work. It's possible that Pierre Garcon, Josh Morgan, Leonard Hankerson and tight end Fred Davis will be a great young receiving corps. But it's likely that it will take some time before they can really be that. There are likely to be growing pains, especially as questions persist on the offensive line, in the running game and on the back end of the defense. The 2012 Redskins are not as finished a product as the teams into which Sanchez and Flacco and Ryan were dropped, and it's unreasonable to expect instant success. |
I think it is a three year time frame we are looking at here before RG3 has this team into the playoffs. I think this year we are a little better than last year but I think the entire division will be better. In 2013 I think we are over .500 but two of the other three will again be better than us. Then in 2014, I expect RG3 to be a seasoned QB in this offense and our offense will finally catch up to what the defense has been doing for almost a decade. I think in 2014 the teams offense will be top 10 along with the defense and we will win 11 or 12 games.
So here's my thoughts on redskins records:
2012: 7-9
2013: 9-7
2014: 11-5
What do others think about how long it will take us to be a playoff team and why? And also what our records will be the next three seasons or longer if you think it will take longer for this team to become a playoff team again?
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Thaiphoon
Joined: 03 Jan 2007
Posts: 13452
Location: Northern Virginia
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| Posted: Thu Apr 12, 2012 3:06 pm Post subject: Re: The Redskins future and reasonable Expectations |
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| turtle28 wrote: | http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/56895/the-redskins-and-reasonable-expectations
In exactly two weeks the Washington Redskins will likely draft Robert Griffin III, who will become the face of our franchise and hopefully turn the team around into a winner year in, year out for a 10 to 15 years. This is something this organization has not seen since the late 70's through the early 90s.
The question is, what is a reasonable expectation for Griffin to turn this franchise around?
Do people expect it to be immediate? A two year turn around? A three year turn around? Or longer? (gosh I hope not).
| Quote: | Of our four examples, the 2011 Bengals asked the most of their rookie quarterback. They averaged 33.4 pass attempts per game, which ranked 20th in the league, and threw for 209.2 passing yards per game, which also ranked 20th. The other three examples on our list? They flat-out coddled their rookie quarterbacks by comparison:
2009 Jets: 24.6 att/gm (32nd), 162.3 pass yds/gm (31st)
2008 Ravens: 27.1 att/gm (T-29th), 185.7 pass yds/gm (28th)
2008 Falcons: 27.1 att/gm (T-29th), 215.0 pass yds/gm (17th
Ryan Kerrigan is part of an improving defense the Redskins might have to lean on during their new quarterback's rookie season. Now, Shanahan is a better-regarded offensive coach than any of the men who coached those teams. Rex Ryan of the Jets, in particular, believed he could win it all with defense, and very nearly did. Shanahan will design an offense in which Griffin can flourish, utilizing his arm and accuracy as well as his athleticism, speed and mobility. He'll design an offense in which Griffin works in concert with the run game, and in which each needs the other to thrive. Shanahan is likely to ask more of his offense than Ryan did of his in 2009, or than John Harbaugh did of his in 2008.
But the Redskins might find themselves limited in how quickly they can make it all work. It's possible that Pierre Garcon, Josh Morgan, Leonard Hankerson and tight end Fred Davis will be a great young receiving corps. But it's likely that it will take some time before they can really be that. There are likely to be growing pains, especially as questions persist on the offensive line, in the running game and on the back end of the defense. The 2012 Redskins are not as finished a product as the teams into which Sanchez and Flacco and Ryan were dropped, and it's unreasonable to expect instant success. |
I think it is a three year time frame we are looking at here before RG3 has this team into the playoffs. I think this year we are a little better than last year but I think the entire division will be better. In 2013 I think we are over .500 but two of the other three will again be better than us. Then in 2014, I expect RG3 to be a seasoned QB in this offense and our offense will finally catch up to what the defense has been doing for almost a decade. I think in 2014 the teams offense will be top 10 along with the defense and we will win 11 or 12 games.
So here's my thoughts on redskins records:
2012: 7-9
2013: 9-7
2014: 11-5
What do others think about how long it will take us to be a playoff team and why? And also what our records will be the next three seasons or longer if you think it will take longer for this team to become a playoff team again? |
I'm with you on the minimum of 3 years scenario although I think it might take 4 years if RG3 is successful just given the state of our team and franchise bad luck. But let's assume we do it in 3. Here's the records I anticipate for a 3 year ramp up:
6-10
8-8
10-6
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PARROTHEAD
Joined: 08 Mar 2009
Posts: 4317
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| Posted: Thu Apr 12, 2012 3:11 pm Post subject: |
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I went with 2013.
The D is very solid. It was just point scoring and turnovers being the problem this year.
With a D that was in the top 5 for fewest TDs allowed. We dont need many more points to be successful. Especially if we can cut back on the TOs.
Kerrigan year 2, Jenks back, All those new guys brought in last year gelling better with the scheme.
The Jets made a deep playoff run with a rookie Sanchez and fantastic D. And our D might not be as stout as that, but our qb is sure has a helluva lot more promise to his abilities.
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DCRED
Joined: 07 Jun 2010
Posts: 3038
Location: USA
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| Posted: Thu Apr 12, 2012 3:52 pm Post subject: |
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I went with 2013. but I really believe it will likely be 2014 before we see playoffs.
The Defense is going to be hard-pressed to be even as good as last year with all the holes in the secondary and I think it will take another year or two ti get it straightened out.
But the Offense next year should be tremendous if they get the Oline sorted out. I'm getting excited about seeing all the young players they finally got in the skill positions hit the field! RG3 (Or Luck), Helu, Royster, Garcon, Hankerson, Morgan, Davis, - we got some flash out there finally
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turtle28
Joined: 21 Nov 2007
Posts: 59718
Location: MD/DC/VA depends on the hr!
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| Posted: Thu Apr 12, 2012 3:58 pm Post subject: |
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| DCRED wrote: | I went with 2013. but I really believe it will likely be 2014 before we see playoffs.
The Defense is going to be hard-pressed to be even as good as last year with all the holes in the secondary and I think it will take another year or two ti get it straightened out.
But the Offense next year should be tremendous. |
We had bigger holes in our secondary last year than this year IMO. Last year on paper our safety tandem looked better but they weren't healthy all year. If our new safeties stay healthy this year and Cedric Griffin rebounds from his knee surgeries this secondary will be better than last years. IMO. I also think if Fletch is back our front 7 is better. If healthy, I think is a top 10 D, possibly top 5 if our young players develop like we think they will and our vets play like they are capable of consistently.
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PSID412
Joined: 28 Feb 2010
Posts: 1242
Location: Bristol England
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| Posted: Thu Apr 12, 2012 4:30 pm Post subject: |
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I say 2013 cause this year it's going to be a learning year but still going to be awesome
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daboyle250
Joined: 29 Nov 2011
Posts: 3768
Location: My House
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| Posted: Thu Apr 12, 2012 4:30 pm Post subject: |
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2012: 10-6
2013: 10-6
2014: 11-5
RG3 is our savior!!!
(a guy can dream, right?)
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| DCRED wrote: | | MKnight82 wrote: | | turtle28 wrote: | I'm still cleaning up the stains in my pants!  |
Ewwww. |
worse thing is they've been there since Shanahan was fired |
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THESKINSFAN21
Joined: 14 Jul 2011
Posts: 4235
Location: West Palm Beach
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| Posted: Thu Apr 12, 2012 5:36 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | The key thing to remember is that, as excited as everyone is about Griffin, he still will be a rookie quarterback in 2012. Teams with rookie quarterbacks do not often reach the playoffs, though the past four seasons have offered several examples. Atlanta's Matt Ryan and Baltimore's Joe Flacco both reached the playoffs as rookies in 2008. The Jets made it all the way to the AFC Championship Game at the end of Mark Sanchez's 2009 rookie season. And last season's Bengals were a playoff team behind rookie quarterback Andy Dalton. |
| Quote: | The 2008 Ravens ranked second in the NFL in total team defense and fourth in rushing offense. The 2009 Jets ranked first in total team defense (by a stunning 32 yards per game) and first in rush offense. The 2008 Falcons were not a good defensive team, ranking 24th in the league. But they were second in the league in rushing yards, which means Ryan was not asked to carry the offense. Last season's Bengals ranked just 19th in the NFL in rushing yards, which put more of a burden on Dalton and his superstar rookie wide receiver, A.J. Green. But they did have that superstar rookie wide receiver. And they ranked seventh in the league in total defense.
Of our four examples, the 2011 Bengals asked the most of their rookie quarterback. They averaged 33.4 pass attempts per game, which ranked 20th in the league, and threw for 209.2 passing yards per game, which also ranked 20th. The other three examples on our list? They flat-out coddled their rookie quarterbacks by comparison:
2009 Jets: 24.6 att/gm (32nd), 162.3 pass yds/gm (31st)
2008 Ravens: 27.1 att/gm (T-29th), 185.7 pass yds/gm (28th)
2008 Falcons: 27.1 att/gm (T-29th), 215.0 pass yds/gm (17th) |
http://espn.go.com/blog/nfceast/post/_/id/38043/the-redskins-and-reasonable-expectations
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Thaiphoon
Joined: 03 Jan 2007
Posts: 13452
Location: Northern Virginia
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| Posted: Thu Apr 12, 2012 6:41 pm Post subject: |
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| THESKINSFAN21 wrote: | | Quote: | | The key thing to remember is that, as excited as everyone is about Griffin, he still will be a rookie quarterback in 2012. Teams with rookie quarterbacks do not often reach the playoffs, though the past four seasons have offered several examples. Atlanta's Matt Ryan and Baltimore's Joe Flacco both reached the playoffs as rookies in 2008. The Jets made it all the way to the AFC Championship Game at the end of Mark Sanchez's 2009 rookie season. And last season's Bengals were a playoff team behind rookie quarterback Andy Dalton. |
| Quote: | The 2008 Ravens ranked second in the NFL in total team defense and fourth in rushing offense. The 2009 Jets ranked first in total team defense (by a stunning 32 yards per game) and first in rush offense. The 2008 Falcons were not a good defensive team, ranking 24th in the league. But they were second in the league in rushing yards, which means Ryan was not asked to carry the offense. Last season's Bengals ranked just 19th in the NFL in rushing yards, which put more of a burden on Dalton and his superstar rookie wide receiver, A.J. Green. But they did have that superstar rookie wide receiver. And they ranked seventh in the league in total defense.
Of our four examples, the 2011 Bengals asked the most of their rookie quarterback. They averaged 33.4 pass attempts per game, which ranked 20th in the league, and threw for 209.2 passing yards per game, which also ranked 20th. The other three examples on our list? They flat-out coddled their rookie quarterbacks by comparison:
2009 Jets: 24.6 att/gm (32nd), 162.3 pass yds/gm (31st)
2008 Ravens: 27.1 att/gm (T-29th), 185.7 pass yds/gm (28th)
2008 Falcons: 27.1 att/gm (T-29th), 215.0 pass yds/gm (17th) |
http://espn.go.com/blog/nfceast/post/_/id/38043/the-redskins-and-reasonable-expectations |
Correct. Most rookie QBs can barely get their team past 6 wins. This is why I picked 6-10 this year.
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THESKINSFAN21
Joined: 14 Jul 2011
Posts: 4235
Location: West Palm Beach
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| Posted: Thu Apr 12, 2012 6:51 pm Post subject: |
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| Thaiphoon wrote: | | THESKINSFAN21 wrote: | | Quote: | | The key thing to remember is that, as excited as everyone is about Griffin, he still will be a rookie quarterback in 2012. Teams with rookie quarterbacks do not often reach the playoffs, though the past four seasons have offered several examples. Atlanta's Matt Ryan and Baltimore's Joe Flacco both reached the playoffs as rookies in 2008. The Jets made it all the way to the AFC Championship Game at the end of Mark Sanchez's 2009 rookie season. And last season's Bengals were a playoff team behind rookie quarterback Andy Dalton. |
| Quote: | The 2008 Ravens ranked second in the NFL in total team defense and fourth in rushing offense. The 2009 Jets ranked first in total team defense (by a stunning 32 yards per game) and first in rush offense. The 2008 Falcons were not a good defensive team, ranking 24th in the league. But they were second in the league in rushing yards, which means Ryan was not asked to carry the offense. Last season's Bengals ranked just 19th in the NFL in rushing yards, which put more of a burden on Dalton and his superstar rookie wide receiver, A.J. Green. But they did have that superstar rookie wide receiver. And they ranked seventh in the league in total defense.
Of our four examples, the 2011 Bengals asked the most of their rookie quarterback. They averaged 33.4 pass attempts per game, which ranked 20th in the league, and threw for 209.2 passing yards per game, which also ranked 20th. The other three examples on our list? They flat-out coddled their rookie quarterbacks by comparison:
2009 Jets: 24.6 att/gm (32nd), 162.3 pass yds/gm (31st)
2008 Ravens: 27.1 att/gm (T-29th), 185.7 pass yds/gm (28th)
2008 Falcons: 27.1 att/gm (T-29th), 215.0 pass yds/gm (17th) |
http://espn.go.com/blog/nfceast/post/_/id/38043/the-redskins-and-reasonable-expectations |
Correct. Most rookie QBs can barely get their team past 6 wins. This is why I picked 6-10 this year. |
Im praying 9-7, I dont want the rams to have our pick in the top 16 
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DCRED
Joined: 07 Jun 2010
Posts: 3038
Location: USA
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| Posted: Thu Apr 12, 2012 8:51 pm Post subject: |
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| turtle28 wrote: | | DCRED wrote: | I went with 2013. but I really believe it will likely be 2014 before we see playoffs.
The Defense is going to be hard-pressed to be even as good as last year with all the holes in the secondary and I think it will take another year or two ti get it straightened out.
But the Offense next year should be tremendous. |
We had bigger holes in our secondary last year than this year IMO. Last year on paper our safety tandem looked better but they weren't healthy all year. If our new safeties stay healthy this year and Cedric Griffin rebounds from his knee surgeries this secondary will be better than last years. IMO. I also think if Fletch is back our front 7 is better. If healthy, I think is a top 10 D, possibly top 5 if our young players develop like we think they will and our vets play like they are capable of consistently. |
I admire your optimism.
IF Fletch is back,
IF Griffin rebounds from surgeries AND plays better than he has in the past,
IF Merriweather plays up to his potential
OR IF Gomes steps up and beats one of them,
AND IF Wilson pans out as a starter (mixed results last year, but will be his second with the coaches so that's encouraging),
The Defense can be pretty solid. Haslett and Morris definitely have their work cut out for them.
Our front 7 is definitely really good, it's continuity and consistence with the back 4 that I'm worried about. I hope they surprise me and these offseason moves pan out- but you are right that OJ and Landry didn't contribute much on the field consistently even when they were healthy.
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Woz
Joined: 10 Mar 2006
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Location: in a land where the furniture folds to a much smaller size
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| Posted: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:25 pm Post subject: |
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I'm looking for a decent record improvement (say 7 wins), but what I really want to see is fewer turnovers and more red zone conversions. Given that, I'd be happy since it would mean the ship is turning even if the wins aren't there.
We've got a reasonably tough schedule this year: Falcons, Panthers, Ravens, Bengals and Vikings at home; Saints, Buccaneers, Browns, Steelers, and Buccaneers on the road. So, getting a winning record will be even tougher that normal.
Assuming they keep the schedule rotation the same, we'd get the AFC West and NFC North next year, and the AFC South and NFC West in 2014. Those look to be more doable. |
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turtle28
Joined: 21 Nov 2007
Posts: 59718
Location: MD/DC/VA depends on the hr!
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| Posted: Fri Apr 13, 2012 8:43 am Post subject: |
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Oh gosh Woz, I forgot about the tough schedule. Ughh
I think we will probably be around where we were the past two years then, to be honest. 5 or 6 wins.
What if we are worse? What if we only win 3 or 4 games because of the tough schedule?
Do people think Shanaham would survive the team getting less wins than it did last year?
I think he would survive even a 3 or 4 win season because he drafted RG3 and Snyder will give the Shanahans two to three years to develop him before moving on.
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mike23md
Joined: 21 Jan 2007
Posts: 7285
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| Posted: Fri Apr 13, 2012 8:52 am Post subject: |
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I feel Shanahan has a lot more lee way when it comes to his position. I dont think that Dan would let him go because its quite simple that Shanahan didnt really get his QB until his 3rd year. Now he has to develop him into the NFL QB he can be. Griffin has a higher ceiling than most for that, but as far as Shanahan losing his job, I feel that his seat has not reached the simmer point yet.
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midniterc
Joined: 19 Feb 2007
Posts: 6653
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| Posted: Fri Apr 13, 2012 9:28 am Post subject: |
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| We would have won the division in 2011 if not for injuries. If the team is healthy, it has a pretty good chance. I think RG3 will make a lot of mistakes in the offense, but I also think he will make up for some of those mistakes with his ability to run. Dallas and Philly are down and we seem to have the Giants' number. The division is winnable. |
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