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TedThompson
Joined: 01 Aug 2011
Posts: 802
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 Posted: Sat Mar 03, 2012 11:59 am Post subject: Joe Philbin & Matt Flynn "A PACKage deal" for |
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We might know very soon, but I have heard some "smart" people say that this has been "a given" as soon as Miami decided to bring Joe Philbin down to Miami.
Think about this:
When drafting a QB, it's almost always a crapshoot how they will transition from playing in college, against college defenses, to the NFL.
Almost every year, there are scrub QBs who teams desperately draft in the first round with expectations that they will become a franchise QB for them.
There are too many to mention, but just last year we saw teams pin their hopes on Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, Jake Locker. Time will tell how they will pan out, but Gabbert's coach already lost his job.
Meanwhile, Joe Philbin has watched Matt Flynn develop behind the scenes over the past few years. He's helped him, and he's known he is ready to start in the NFL and can succeed.
The whole league saw it late in the 2010 season in Foxboro, on primetime.
Then the whole world saw it week 17 vs the Lions.
Doubters will say those 2 defenses were crappy. Well the fact of the matter is the 2010 Pats defense and the Lions 2011 defenses are basically "typical" defenses in today's NFL.
Both of those games were outdoors in cold weather. Both games were meaningful games for the opponents, as well as for us somewhat.
He did one of them without Jennings and Cobb dressed.
Anyway, Philbin knows what he has in Flynn. More than anyone knows.
Why would he gamble on a rookie? The price tag to trade up for Griffin is way too high, plus he has a little of Akili Smith in him. He's no more "certain" than Matt Flynn is anyway. Plus Flynn knows Joe's offense.
Why would he go after a guy on his last leg (neck) who might be a Favre-like solution, if he can even play again?
Matt Flynn will end up in Miami, and it will be a tag & trade, for a modest deal. Not a boatload haul. These 2 teams are on good terms.
I hope and expect to see this start to be scrolling on the tickers soon........
Who's gonna break it?
Shefter?
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"It's the same old Jay," Woodson told ESPN afterward. "We just need to be in position. Jay will throw us the ball." |
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gizmo2012
Joined: 11 Mar 2007
Posts: 2339
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| Posted: Sat Mar 03, 2012 12:13 pm Post subject: |
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| I am sure there is some serious interest in Miami for Matt Flynn, but to think Philbin would give up a high draft pick and still have to negotiate 14.4 million in a guaranteed contract if the Packers franchise Flynn is a serious reach. Joe Philbin knows the first GM Flynn's agent will call is Miami. Flynn would love to continue to play in the Packers system and that's where he knows he can be successful, so Philbin doesn't need to chase Matt to get him to talk with Miami. |
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jbeltmann
Joined: 13 Sep 2011
Posts: 45
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| Posted: Sat Mar 03, 2012 12:23 pm Post subject: |
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I have been saying this for quite a while regarding the tag n trade. I don't know exactly where he'll end up but I will be asbsolutely floored if he doesn't get traded to someone for at least a 2nd.
Not sure where all the haters are pouring out from like they are the holy rollers of nfl transactions or something. Probably bitterness I guess.
Nothing will happen til at least tomorrow due to how much will need to be worked out(paperwork). I just don't buy this smoke and mirrors act people are trying to put out there like this isn't allowed. Well if they don't like it go to church all day tomorrow or something til its official. Then they will all look like idiots saying how could this happen?
Remember, there is more to this than just Flynn, the other team, and comp. Not sure if Woodsons and Drivers money needs to be fiqured out before hand but could be another thing to drag it all out. Either way, its going to be a fun draft! |
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jbeltmann
Joined: 13 Sep 2011
Posts: 45
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| Posted: Sat Mar 03, 2012 12:29 pm Post subject: |
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| gizmo2012 wrote: | | I am sure there is some serious interest in Miami for Matt Flynn, but to think Philbin would give up a high draft pick and still have to negotiate 14.4 million in a guaranteed contract if the Packers franchise Flynn is a serious reach. Joe Philbin knows the first GM Flynn's agent will call is Miami. Flynn would love to continue to play in the Packers system and that's where he knows he can be successful, so Philbin doesn't need to chase Matt to get him to talk with Miami. |
Giz, I don't mean to seem like im picking on you but I don't understand why you are fighting this. Like its unfathomable to wrap your head around it. Like the earth is flat or something. Why do you always bring up the 14.4 mil? Forget that number cause the number you should be thinking about is 50. No not Reuben Pheffer style but MILLION. He's getting paid for a long time. Why do you get hung up over just one year?
One other thing to remember is the team trading for Flynn is guaranteed to get him. Thats why they are giving up comp. Don't understand why so many think this cant or wont be done. Really thought it would be quite obvious by now TBH |
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gizmo2012
Joined: 11 Mar 2007
Posts: 2339
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| Posted: Sat Mar 03, 2012 1:25 pm Post subject: |
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| jbeltmann wrote: | | gizmo2012 wrote: | | I am sure there is some serious interest in Miami for Matt Flynn, but to think Philbin would give up a high draft pick and still have to negotiate 14.4 million in a guaranteed contract if the Packers franchise Flynn is a serious reach. Joe Philbin knows the first GM Flynn's agent will call is Miami. Flynn would love to continue to play in the Packers system and that's where he knows he can be successful, so Philbin doesn't need to chase Matt to get him to talk with Miami. |
Giz, I don't mean to seem like im picking on you but I don't understand why you are fighting this. Like its unfathomable to wrap your head around it. Like the earth is flat or something. Why do you always bring up the 14.4 mil? Forget that number cause the number you should be thinking about is 50. No not Reuben Pheffer style but MILLION. He's getting paid for a long time. Why do you get hung up over just one year?
One other thing to remember is the team trading for Flynn is guaranteed to get him. Thats why they are giving up comp. Don't understand why so many think this cant or wont be done. Really thought it would be quite obvious by now TBH |
You make it seem like Green Bay has 14.4 million lying aound under the cap right now, they don't. So you can't just say forget the 14.4 million because its money that will tie up all free agent investments until Flynn is traded if he is tagged. It is a big deal. I understand there are 2 school's of thought and I think mine is the more likely than just assuming the Packers tag Flynn and there be all kinds of teams willing to give up a high draft pick for him. I just don't buy it because there are cheaper options out there and Flynn is not a guarateed success story. I also don't see a huge market for Flynn considering RGIII, Luck and Tannehill will be round 1 picks, and Cousins and Weeden are likely 2nd round picks. Forget Peyton Manning who is the wild card in all of this. I have said this before that I hope I am wrong but I just don't see TT taking that risk knowing he will likely get a 3rd round compensation for Flynn next year. We will know by Monday and I will be glad to come back in here and bow to all of you that predict Flynn will be tagged. |
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Sandybaby716
Joined: 11 Mar 2007
Posts: 3526
Location: Rhode Island
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| Posted: Sat Mar 03, 2012 1:30 pm Post subject: |
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| jbeltmann wrote: | | gizmo2012 wrote: | | I am sure there is some serious interest in Miami for Matt Flynn, but to think Philbin would give up a high draft pick and still have to negotiate 14.4 million in a guaranteed contract if the Packers franchise Flynn is a serious reach. Joe Philbin knows the first GM Flynn's agent will call is Miami. Flynn would love to continue to play in the Packers system and that's where he knows he can be successful, so Philbin doesn't need to chase Matt to get him to talk with Miami. |
Giz, I don't mean to seem like im picking on you but I don't understand why you are fighting this. Like its unfathomable to wrap your head around it. Like the earth is flat or something. Why do you always bring up the 14.4 mil? Forget that number cause the number you should be thinking about is 50. No not Reuben Pheffer style but MILLION. He's getting paid for a long time. Why do you get hung up over just one year?
One other thing to remember is the team trading for Flynn is guaranteed to get him. Thats why they are giving up comp. Don't understand why so many think this cant or wont be done. Really thought it would be quite obvious by now TBH |
Yep, if he's a free agent then he'd be getting a heck of a lot more than 14.4m guaranteed. The 14.4 is not guaranteed for this season, but it is guaranteed throughout the course of the deal. I'm sure he's more likely to get about 20m guaranteed.
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| wgbeethree wrote: | | In all fairness it is kind of rude to just lay injured at their feet while the Lions defensive players are trying to hold a completely unrelated dance party. |
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AmishMafia
Joined: 07 Apr 2011
Posts: 222
Location: Las Vegas
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| Posted: Sat Mar 03, 2012 1:50 pm Post subject: |
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| gizmo2012 wrote: | | jbeltmann wrote: | | gizmo2012 wrote: | | I am sure there is some serious interest in Miami for Matt Flynn, but to think Philbin would give up a high draft pick and still have to negotiate 14.4 million in a guaranteed contract if the Packers franchise Flynn is a serious reach. Joe Philbin knows the first GM Flynn's agent will call is Miami. Flynn would love to continue to play in the Packers system and that's where he knows he can be successful, so Philbin doesn't need to chase Matt to get him to talk with Miami. |
Giz, I don't mean to seem like im picking on you but I don't understand why you are fighting this. Like its unfathomable to wrap your head around it. Like the earth is flat or something. Why do you always bring up the 14.4 mil? Forget that number cause the number you should be thinking about is 50. No not Reuben Pheffer style but MILLION. He's getting paid for a long time. Why do you get hung up over just one year?
One other thing to remember is the team trading for Flynn is guaranteed to get him. Thats why they are giving up comp. Don't understand why so many think this cant or wont be done. Really thought it would be quite obvious by now TBH |
You make it seem like Green Bay has 14.4 million lying aound under the cap right now, they don't. So you can't just say forget the 14.4 million because its money that will tie up all free agent investments until Flynn is traded if he is tagged. It is a big deal. I understand there are 2 school's of thought and I think mine is the more likely than just assuming the Packers tag Flynn and there be all kinds of teams willing to give up a high draft pick for him. I just don't buy it because there are cheaper options out there and Flynn is not a guarateed success story. I also don't see a huge market for Flynn considering RGIII, Luck and Tannehill will be round 1 picks, and Cousins and Weeden are likely 2nd round picks. Forget Peyton Manning who is the wild card in all of this. I have said this before that I hope I am wrong but I just don't see TT taking that risk knowing he will likely get a 3rd round compensation for Flynn next year. We will know by Monday and I will be glad to come back in here and bow to all of you that predict Flynn will be tagged. |
Other than Luck and RGIII, Flynn is probably the better option. So if you need a QB like the Browns and you have a late first, who do you take? Tannehill at a $ savings or Flynn who will probably help your team more but cost more $? Most GMs go with the Flynn in this case - better job security as Flynn is more of a sure thing than a rookie.
I think you are in the minority in your pessimism. Not sure why you feel the need to post this a hundred times and in every thread that mentions Flynn. We will find out on Tuesday if you are right. Me? The only thing holding this back was Finley. Now that he is signed, I would be shocked if Flynn wasn't tagged.
As far as having the cap space, they can make the space with one move. Cutting Clifton will get us there. When we tag Flynn, we don't have to write a check immediately. When the trade is consumated we get the space back. Not a big deal. Losing our FAs like Wells, Grant, etc isn't that big of a deal. I'd like to keep Wells, but only at a good price anyway. More space needed? We just restructure Woodson - not a big deal anyway. |
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PackFan4Life
Joined: 05 Dec 2006
Posts: 3530
Location: De Pere, WI
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| Posted: Sat Mar 03, 2012 3:53 pm Post subject: |
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He just wants to be able to say see I told you so. Some posters still live for that like it immediately gives them more cred than any other poster. It is hollow thinking. It could go either way and the only people that do know are the Titletown front office.
Me? I root for the best possible outcome for the Pack and I'm not afraid to hope for it either. The best possible outcome is the Pack gets a lucrative tag and trade comp for Flynn that is in excess of a 3rd round comp pick next year. |
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th87
Joined: 04 Aug 2008
Posts: 317
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| Posted: Sat Mar 03, 2012 3:54 pm Post subject: |
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I'd find it hard to believe that some team wouldn't risk at least a second. The upside is crazy - a potential franchise changer. A number of teams could take that risk, including the Dolphins, Jets, Browns, Chiefs, Redskins, and Seahawks.
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byzr
Joined: 31 Jan 2005
Posts: 2759
Location: Kentucky
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| Posted: Sat Mar 03, 2012 4:03 pm Post subject: |
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| th87 wrote: | | I'd find it hard to believe that some team wouldn't risk at least a second. The upside is crazy - a potential franchise changer. A number of teams could take that risk, including the Dolphins, Jets, Browns, Chiefs, Redskins, and Seahawks. |
i'll second that and add that a high picking team like the Browns might be willing to give up a second 1st if they were to take a WR high in the draft. having a veteran QB to throw to a rookie wideout can make things easier for the young wideout.
as soon as Flynn is traded then the 14.4 is going to come off the books right? what would worry me is that if Wells signs a FA contract with another team we need to push hard for Myers in order to keep our o-line solid.
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JustisM
Joined: 13 Jan 2007
Posts: 16605
Location: Hood River, Oregon
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| Posted: Sat Mar 03, 2012 4:03 pm Post subject: |
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I would think that he would be giving good words of Flynn to the GM, but I'm not sure if that really affects him going to the Phins or anywhere else. It's going to come down to who is willing to take the biggest risk on a guy with two starts, albeit great games, and build their franchise around him.
How I think things shake out
Indianapolis-Lose Manning, draft Luck #1
Cleveland-Moves up to #2 (Rams) and drafts RG3 (they can pretty much match anything the Redskins are offering and they are a pick before)
It could be a draft day decision by the Redskins to pick him up. Maybe they send us a early 2nd for him and maybe a conditional 2nd in 2013. I'd be okay with that. |
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pack4to84
Joined: 05 Dec 2005
Posts: 360
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| Posted: Sat Mar 03, 2012 4:51 pm Post subject: |
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| Here is something you guy's are forgetting. If we don't sign/trade Flynn then we can't be players in the FA market. We would lose the 3rd pick if we are players in FA. So, Wells would know this so he would hold the upper hand in contract talks. TT knows it is a lose lose situation if we don't tag and trade. |
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BrettFavre004
Joined: 08 Feb 2007
Posts: 18702
Location: Galesville, WI
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| Posted: Sat Mar 03, 2012 5:00 pm Post subject: |
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| JustisM wrote: | I would think that he would be giving good words of Flynn to the GM, but I'm not sure if that really affects him going to the Phins or anywhere else. It's going to come down to who is willing to take the biggest risk on a guy with two starts, albeit great games, and build their franchise around him.
How I think things shake out
Indianapolis-Lose Manning, draft Luck #1
Cleveland-Moves up to #2 (Rams) and drafts RG3 (they can pretty much match anything the Redskins are offering and they are a pick before)
It could be a draft day decision by the Redskins to pick him up. Maybe they send us a early 2nd for him and maybe a conditional 2nd in 2013. I'd be okay with that. |
There is no way we should be holding on to Matt Flynn's rights until the draft.
| pack4to84 wrote: | | Here is something you guy's are forgetting. If we don't sign/trade Flynn then we can't be players in the FA market. We would lose the 3rd pick if we are players in FA. So, Wells would know this so he would hold the upper hand in contract talks. TT knows it is a lose lose situation if we don't tag and trade. |
If we lose Flynn and Wells to FA, my guess is our offer to Wells is fair, and if he signs elsewhere, it will be for a lot. Those two would negate any FA center we would get to replace him and we would still get our third from that.
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gizmo2012
Joined: 11 Mar 2007
Posts: 2339
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| Posted: Sat Mar 03, 2012 6:24 pm Post subject: |
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| pack4to84 wrote: | | Here is something you guy's are forgetting. If we don't sign/trade Flynn then we can't be players in the FA market. We would lose the 3rd pick if we are players in FA. So, Wells would know this so he would hold the upper hand in contract talks. TT knows it is a lose lose situation if we don't tag and trade. |
I don't get the logic. What 3rd pick? Who are we going to sign to lose compensation picks and if the Packers do then great - an established player rated that high is worth a draft pick. The Packers will sign a free agent center and the question is will it be Wells or someone else. You don't want to put a rookie in as the starting center unless its perhaps Konz and he might not be there at pick 28. |
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TedThompson
Joined: 01 Aug 2011
Posts: 802
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| Posted: Sat Mar 03, 2012 7:04 pm Post subject: |
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We won't be getting Miami's #1. I expect it will be more of a bargain like their high #2.
It's a lot better for us than a 3-comp in 2013, and it allows Miami to A) get their QB who is more ready for that system NOW, and B) allows them the premium pick to add another stud to their club right now.
I'll be shocked if he's not a Dolphin, and I will be extremely disappointed in #RealTed if he loses him.
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"It's the same old Jay," Woodson told ESPN afterward. "We just need to be in position. Jay will throw us the ball." |
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