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cards czar
Joined: 27 Jan 2006
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Location: Alton, Ill
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 Posted: Mon Jan 30, 2012 9:36 am Post subject: Re: Our 2012 Salary Cap Situation.....And Peyton Manning |
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| stchamp98 wrote: | After a couple of weeks of trying to pin down,"my buddy" on a number of salary related questions that I have had for some time, I was finally able to do so and I got the necessary information. Adding in some personal thoughts and research of my own, I was able to pin an estimate of what our 2012 salary cap was. In doing so, however, I did not take my numbers out to the low thousands or hundreds or dollars. When I reached "my buddy" this morning and gave him my figures, he responsed, and I quote, "That's a little low". I asked him to tell me what the actual number was and he said, "You're within 500,000". Now,I could have pressed him for the actual on the dot number and I could have easily went back and just did the numbers over again, this time to the penny, and gotten it myself but I know in my heart of hearts and I know everyone here would agree that Rod Graves and co. would NEVER, EVER let our cap get within 500,000 of the edge, so I said to hell with it, I'll just work 500,000 or so dollars on the low side. Now, and this is big, the number I'm about to give you guys DOES NOT include Levi Brown. I don't have any sort of new inside information on whether or not Levi will return to the team in 2012 but I do know for certain that he will not return to the team at his projected 2012 cost. Therefore, I felt it irresponsible of me to include him here. I'll have more on this later in this post but just make yourselves aware that this number is Levi Brown vacant.
So, within 500,000 dollars and EXCLUDING Levi Brown, our current 2012 cap number is:
$97,227,000 dollars
"My buddy" did not know the current 2012 league salary cap projections but highly credible, well known website footballoutsiders.com projects it somewhere between 120-125 million. The pros and cons of this raw number is where it gets interesting. The big pro is that we have, as of right now, approximately 23-28 million dollars in cap room available to the naked eye, with plenty of room to maneuver. The big con, something that isn't available to the naked eye, is that this raw cap number only includes 40 under contract players(Reserve/future contract players were not included, exclusive rights free agents are included) and does not include a number of expensive team free agents. Let's first analyze the pros.
Pros
-23-28 million dollars is good. Damn good. It's actually higher than the 18-22 million dollars I projected us at in the "Manning" thread. For that mistake, I apologize. Even more exciting than that 23-28 million available dollars is the additional monies to be freed up via player cuts. I see 4 players who had either minimal 2011 contributions to the team or no contribution at all that could/should be on the butchers table. Chansi Stuckey, Todd Heap, Floyd Womack, Joey Porter. Releasing these 4 players alone would save this team approximately 8.25 million cap dollars. We lose 1 touchdown and 1 sack while gaining 8.25 million. Incredible. Our next big pro just so happens to be my next big mistake: Kevin Kolb. I railed against a few people here saying that a Kevin Kolb release did not help our 2012 cap, it hurt it. THAT WAS WRONG!!! For that mistake, again I apologize. Releasing Kevin Kolb would actually free up an additional 1 million cap dollars. That's not much to write home about but it's certainly a far cry from the significant cap hit I claimed it to be. Add this to the 4 cuts we made above, and our available cap room would skyrocket 32-37 million dollars. Pre-cons, that's unreal. Unfortunately, there are a number of cons.
Cons
First off, Levi Brown. As stressed in my opening paragraph, he was not included. If he returns to the team, if will be at a significantly lower cost than is currently projected but that cost is still EASILY going to run us between 3.5-6 million dollars against the 2012 cap. Any decent free agent we could sign on the open market should we decide to go away from Levi would do the same. Even the low end, 3.5 million is over 33% of the savings we made from the 5 cuts above. Not good. People will say, "forget the free agents, look towards the draft for a tackle" and that's a viable option. Unfortunately, that too carries problems. 1-It handcuffs us on draft day. 2-It likely forces us to re-sign and start Brandon Keith(2011 salary, 1.2 million cap dollars). Whiz won't start 2 rookie tackles. In the word of my good friend DJ, something has to give. Something at the tackle position has to give. Next con, Calais Campbell. I have made 2 massive reporting mistakes from the "Manning" thread but after triple checking, my reportings on Calais are correct, a decision on his status must be made nearly 2 full weeks before a decision on Peyton's status must be made. That leads us down 1 of 2 paths, both of which are fairly dark. If we re-sign Calais to the large, long term extension he's worth, he's GUARANTEED to charge us somewhere between 6-9 million against the cap. If we are unable to come to terms on an extension and we choose to use the franchise tag to retain him, he's GUARANTEED to charge us between 10.5-11 million. That takes our available cap room, LOW END TACKLE NUMBER INCLUDED, from 32-37 million to 17.5-22.5 million. If we choose to let Calais hit the open market and retain our cap space, we're doing so with NO ASSURANCE that the Colts will do likewise with Manning. None whatsoever. All told, not good. Next con, as stated previously, we have only 40 players under contract, 35 if you take into account the 5 cuts from the pros section. That leaves us 18 players(16 against the cap) short of a league approved team. The draft will help here but even if you factor in all of our rookie draft picks making the final 53 man roster, which is highly unlikely, that's only 7 players. That leaves us 11(9 against the cap) short. Those players cost money. Our other unrestricted free agents, Richard Marshall among them, cost money. Our restricted free agents cost money(All are, REGARDLESS OF TENDER, guaranteed substantials raises from 2011). Even if we could get all of our players for the 4-6 year veteran minimum, WHICH WE ABSOLUTELY COULD NOT, that's 700,000 per player(685,000 to be exact). 9 players against the cap, 700,000 a pop, that's roughly 6.3 million cap dollars. Nevermind the reality that that can't happen, 6.3 million takes our available cap dollars from 17.5-22.5 to 11.5-16.5, just like that(And I state again, THIS CAN'T HAPPEN). Just by building a fieldable NFL team(Keep in mind, a poor NFL team), you've lowered your available cap dollars by some 30%.
All of this is important team cap information that applies to the entire team in general but now, it's time for the big question. Can we afford Peyton Manning? In my honest opinion, being perfectly reasonable in my judgements of how our front office will operate, the answer is.........YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Yes, we can afford Peyton Manning. It's going to be EXTREMELY, I MEAN, EXTREMELY RISKY, but we can do it. Reasonable judgement says Calais Campbell isn't going anywhere. To this, every Arizona authority agrees. Acquiring Peyton in addition to Calais would result in an extremely poor depth chart for a number of other positions but it can be done. In order get it done, 1-2 of the following 3 things will have to happen:
1. We're going to have to give Peyton Manning a large sum of up front money, via a prorated signing bonus.
2. If #1 is not applicable, we're going to have to get Peyton Manning to play ball with the organization.
3. We're going to have to get one of our current key, high paid players to play ball with the organization.
Nobody, and I do mean NOBODY, knows if any of those 3 things will happen but rest assured, I've done tireless research, it can be done.
Bring on the questions/concerns/criticisms. |
It also looks like we will get a few Mil back in 2012.
Ok here is the Link from Ask the Commish: Question 1.14
What changes were made in the most recent extension to the CBA and what affect does that have on the Salary Cap?Answer: As stated, the latest (and 6th) CBA was passed by the NFLPA and owners in August, 2011. Listed below are the changes that were made:
For 2011, time-based roster bonuses and other incentives (e.g. “Player must be on the roster on April 15th to receive bonus”), the contractual date is amended to July 29.
If a player is released prior to July 29, the team must pay all of his workout bonus if it is $50,000 or less, $50,000 if it it between $50,000 and $100,000, and 50% of the bonus if it is over $100,000 (up to $100,000). If the player is released AFTER 4:00 PM on July 29, then he is due the full amount of his workout bonus.
For 2011, each team may designate up to 3 of their highest paid players (who must have at least 5 accrued seasons and make at least $1 M more than the league minimum salary for that year), toward whom the team will will receive $1 M cap credit. Repayment of this credit will be applied toward the 2014-2017 league years.
For 2012, each team may designate up to 3 of their highest paid players (who must have at least 5 accrued seasons and make at least $500,000 more than the league minimum salary for that year), toward whom the team will will receive $500,000 cap credit. Repayment of this credit will be applied toward the 2014-2017 league years.
Proration for signing bonuses for contracts signed during the 2011 league year (after July 25) will begin cap acceleration in 2012.
http://www.askthecommish.com/salarycap/faq.asp |
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younggun1273
Joined: 14 Jan 2007
Posts: 6892
Location: Tallahassee
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| Posted: Mon Jan 30, 2012 2:51 pm Post subject: |
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Does anyone else get the feeling that Peyton will probably retire? When was the last time you heard a report of how Petyon's neck was healing up? We all know he is rehabbing and training to get ready, but we have not heard of any actual progress being made towards him being able to return to the field. Peter King said that Manning is struggling to get healthy, and it is fair to wonder if Peyton could pass a physical. It certainly does not seem like it.
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JohnnyV
Joined: 04 Jan 2008
Posts: 2205
Location: Chicago, Illinois
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| Posted: Tue Jan 31, 2012 10:39 am Post subject: |
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| younggun1273 wrote: | | Does anyone else get the feeling that Peyton will probably retire? When was the last time you heard a report of how Petyon's neck was healing up? We all know he is rehabbing and training to get ready, but we have not heard of any actual progress being made towards him being able to return to the field. Peter King said that Manning is struggling to get healthy, and it is fair to wonder if Peyton could pass a physical. It certainly does not seem like it. |
Everything I'm hearing is that he's most likely done, which is extremely sad and I'm not just talking in reference to whether or not the Cardinals pick him up.
He's carried that Indy franchise and deserved a better ending than this.
I wish him well no matter what happens, but I have a feeling this thread could be dead and buried here REAL shortly.
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cards czar
Joined: 27 Jan 2006
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Location: Alton, Ill
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cards czar
Joined: 27 Jan 2006
Posts: 146
Location: Alton, Ill
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| Posted: Wed Feb 01, 2012 12:27 am Post subject: |
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Here is the minimun cap figures for 1-4 yr players.
CS 2011 2012 2013 2014
0 375 390 405 420
1 450 465 480 495
2 525 540 555 570
3 600 615 630 645
4-6 685 700 715 730
7-9 810 825 840 855
10+ 910 925 940 955 |
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stchamp98
Joined: 11 Apr 2005
Posts: 52947
Location: Havre, Montana
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| Posted: Wed Feb 01, 2012 9:34 am Post subject: |
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Yeah, all I had was what footballoutsiders estimated. That's why my numbers are all "between this and this". Can't pin the exact cap down.
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JohnnyV
Joined: 04 Jan 2008
Posts: 2205
Location: Chicago, Illinois
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| Posted: Wed Feb 01, 2012 10:57 am Post subject: |
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This information was just posted on Twitter via ESPNs Andrew Brandt, but I completely forgot that once Manning is released, he is free to sign with any team RIGHT AWAY. He doesn't have to wait for free agency to begin in early March.
Pretty interesting, especially if he and Irsay meet next week like Peyton said they will.
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cards czar
Joined: 27 Jan 2006
Posts: 146
Location: Alton, Ill
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| Posted: Wed Feb 01, 2012 9:57 pm Post subject: |
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| stchamp98 wrote: |
Yeah, all I had was what footballoutsiders estimated. That's why my numbers are all "between this and this". Can't pin the exact cap down. |
Cant find the link but I was reading about Kolb is that if we let him go we can get back for 2012 6M. Kolb last year got a10M signing bonus so we still owe 8M but that we might only take a 4M hit in 2012 and 4M in 2013(Think this has to do with the new CBA). Kolb has a 10 M cap hit for 2012 and if we let him go before 15 March we can recoup 6M.
K. Kolb
Base Salary -------S. Bonus--------Misc. Bonus--------Cap Hit
2011- 2,000,000 --2,000,000----------0.00-----------4,000,000
2012- 1,000,000---2,000,000-------7,000,000-------10,000,000
2013- 9,000,000---2,000,000-------2,000,000-------13,000,000
2014-10,000,000---2,000,000---------0.00----------12,000,000
2015-10,000,000---2,000,000---------0.00----------12,000,000 |
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stchamp98
Joined: 11 Apr 2005
Posts: 52947
Location: Havre, Montana
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| Posted: Wed Feb 01, 2012 10:15 pm Post subject: |
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| cards czar wrote: | | stchamp98 wrote: |
Yeah, all I had was what footballoutsiders estimated. That's why my numbers are all "between this and this". Can't pin the exact cap down. |
Cant find the link but I was reading about Kolb is that if we let him go we can get back for 2012 6M. Kolb last year got a10M signing bonus so we still owe 8M but that we might only take a 4M hit in 2012 and 4M in 2013(Think this has to do with the new CBA). Kolb has a 10 M cap hit for 2012 and if we let him go before 15 March we can recoup 6M.
K. Kolb
Base Salary -------S. Bonus--------Misc. Bonus--------Cap Hit
2011- 2,000,000 --2,000,000----------0.00-----------4,000,000
2012- 1,000,000---2,000,000-------7,000,000-------10,000,000
2013- 9,000,000---2,000,000-------2,000,000-------13,000,000
2014-10,000,000---2,000,000---------0.00----------12,000,000
2015-10,000,000---2,000,000---------0.00----------12,000,000 |
That's not how the pro-ration works, I assure you. We'd save about 1 million cap dollars releasing Kolb.
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Boise&cards Fan
Joined: 03 Dec 2010
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| Posted: Wed Feb 01, 2012 10:41 pm Post subject: |
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stchamp do you think the team would cut Kolb if they Signed Manning.
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cards czar
Joined: 27 Jan 2006
Posts: 146
Location: Alton, Ill
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| Posted: Thu Feb 02, 2012 12:39 am Post subject: |
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| Boise&cards Fan wrote: | | stchamp do you think the team would cut Kolb if they Signed Manning. |
They would. If manning is signed, J. Skelton will have 2-3 years to learn under Payton. |
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DirtyDez
Joined: 15 Oct 2010
Posts: 9828
Location: the Arizona desert
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| Posted: Thu Feb 02, 2012 1:02 am Post subject: |
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| cards czar wrote: | | Boise&cards Fan wrote: | | stchamp do you think the team would cut Kolb if they Signed Manning. |
They would. If manning is signed, J. Skelton will have 2-3 years to learn under Payton. |
Exactly. Skelton is what makes this Manning thing possible. Not only would we have a capable backup but also someone in the future. It's really a perfect scenario.
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DJ_Fka
Joined: 13 Jan 2009
Posts: 3361
Location: Brisvegas, Land Down Under
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| Posted: Thu Feb 02, 2012 2:46 am Post subject: |
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Skelton is a nice plan B, nice to groom
he will be a starter somewhere before it is all said and done.
Im on his bandwagon. |
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outside_Insider
Joined: 29 Jan 2012
Posts: 1196
Location: Calgary, AB
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| Posted: Thu Feb 02, 2012 3:43 am Post subject: |
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| Plucky wrote: | | ya but i think you can talk it up.. a 3rd rounder is not a crazy amount to give up for a starting qb even if he isnt a top 15 qb... if the browns love him i think they could do it.. they already have 2 first rounders this year.. they could get real good fast.. they have some key pieces on that team.. |
From a non- biased prospective I would say this post is very uneducated. Let's be clear, Arizona is interested in Peyton because Kolb was not good. If Arizona cuts Kolb it will be because they feel that even if Peyton doesnt play, they are better off or as good with Skeleton. Do you think that a team is willing to inherit the cap hit that Kolb would bring when the Cards gave up on him ONE year after giving a pro bowl corner, a 2nd and 20 M guaranteed? In order for them to give up, he must not hold a lot of value or else they would have kept him.
Kolb's perceived value is about a 5th round pick WITHOUT his contract. In my opinion AZ would have to give up Kolb and a pick to give him up. Or what is the same, they will cut him. Cutting is the result of no other team wanting a player at what they are being paid. This is what will happen. Keep in mind that his roster bonus is due before trading so they will not know if they have any suitors until after paying him. This will undoubtedly lead to his release if they intend to be in on manning. |
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Plucky
Joined: 12 Jan 2011
Posts: 574
Location: florida
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| Posted: Thu Feb 02, 2012 6:51 am Post subject: |
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| outside_Insider wrote: | | Plucky wrote: | | ya but i think you can talk it up.. a 3rd rounder is not a crazy amount to give up for a starting qb even if he isnt a top 15 qb... if the browns love him i think they could do it.. they already have 2 first rounders this year.. they could get real good fast.. they have some key pieces on that team.. |
From a non- biased prospective I would say this post is very uneducated. Let's be clear, Arizona is interested in Peyton because Kolb was not good. If Arizona cuts Kolb it will be because they feel that even if Peyton doesnt play, they are better off or as good with Skeleton. Do you think that a team is willing to inherit the cap hit that Kolb would bring when the Cards gave up on him ONE year after giving a pro bowl corner, a 2nd and 20 M guaranteed? In order for them to give up, he must not hold a lot of value or else they would have kept him.
Kolb's perceived value is about a 5th round pick WITHOUT his contract. In my opinion AZ would have to give up Kolb and a pick to give him up. Or what is the same, they will cut him. Cutting is the result of no other team wanting a player at what they are being paid. This is what will happen. Keep in mind that his roster bonus is due before trading so they will not know if they have any suitors until after paying him. This will undoubtedly lead to his release if they intend to be in on manning. |
lets be clear, the cardinals are interested in manning because.. it's peyton manning.. just like every other team would be interested in him.. it really has nothing to do with kolb, manning is just a once in a lifetime player.. Just to be honest I never really cared for kolb in the first place but lets not rush to judgement and grade the very few games he played here.. no offseason, new system and he got injured.. I find it hard to believe Kolb's "value" would have dropped that far off only 4-5 games.. With all that being said, I didn't take into account for his roster bonus so you do have a point.. It would be very very difficult to trade him in such a short amount of time with teams knowing we would have to drop him.. If we did however, I think a deal could be worked out to restructure his contract before we trade him.. In the end I could care less what we did or didn't get for him as long as it brings a healthy peyton manning under center..
edit- that probowl corner, yeah not so good, he's got all the talent but lately hasn't put it on the field.. his game right now is far from a probowl corner and is a player that wouldn't fit in our new defensive scheme.. he's almost a wash in my opinion.. that second round pick hurt more |
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