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John Fox Draft Strategy: From those who know Best
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elliot878


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 25, 2011 6:14 pm    Post subject: John Fox Draft Strategy: From those who know Best Reply with quote

Ive gone into the Panthers forum and requested some information from their members on Fox's typical draft strategies. Its been obvious that the majority of posters in here have had their heads spinning every which way. With all the talk of Qb's coming in for workouts, the fact that Fox and Elway have brought in more offensive players than defensive players for private workouts, has made us all wonder if Fox/Elway are tearing the whole thing apart, or if its all smoke and we are seeking out trade partners.

Here is what Boondock pm'd me about John Fox's draft strategy:

boondock wrote:
Here's what we learned about Fox and the draft.

1. He always takes BPA even if it's not a need and will make moves to get a player if he can. See Jonathan Stewart and Everette Brown.

2. Loves to take players that fall, see Duke Robinson, Everette Brown, Jimmy Clausen, Greg Hardy.


I know that the front office had some say in personnel decisions in Carolina, and that we must factor in Elways influence here in Denver. At least this thread can help to give us a better idea of what Fox's tendencies are, and receive information from those who followed his former team most closely, and saw Fox work the draft over the last 9 seasons.

I plan to extend the invite to members of the Panthers forum and ask that they put forth their understanding of Fox's draft tendemcies, so that us Broncos fans may get a better idea of what to expect in April.
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JackedUP


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 25, 2011 6:33 pm    Post subject: Re: John Fox Draft Strategy: From those who know Best Reply with quote

elliot878 wrote:
Ive gone into the Panthers forum and requested some information from their members on Fox's typical draft strategies. Its been obvious that the majority of posters in here have had their heads spinning every which way. With all the talk of Qb's coming in for workouts, the fact that Fox and Elway have brought in more offensive players than defensive players for private workouts, has made us all wonder if Fox/Elway are tearing the whole thing apart, or if its all smoke and we are seeking out trade partners.

Here is what Boondock pm'd me about John Fox's draft strategy:

boondock wrote:
Here's what we learned about Fox and the draft.

1. He always takes BPA even if it's not a need and will make moves to get a player if he can. See Jonathan Stewart and Everette Brown.

2. Loves to take players that fall, see Duke Robinson, Everette Brown, Jimmy Clausen, Greg Hardy.


I know that the front office had some say in personnel decisions in Carolina, and that we must factor in Elways influence here in Denver. At least this thread can help to give us a better idea of what Fox's tendencies are, and receive information from those who followed his former team most closely, and saw Fox work the draft over the last 9 seasons.

I plan to extend the invite to members of the Panthers forum and ask that they put forth their understanding of Fox's draft tendemcies, so that us Broncos fans may get a better idea of what to expect in April.


Elliot, do we have any idea of how much control Fox had on draft day? Also, if someone gets a chance maybe they can post his past drafts so we can look and see how his draft record is.
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boondock


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 25, 2011 6:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Also, I will add some additional information.

Fox works out everyone under the moon. I remember a few years back when we would hear of Fox and Hurney (Carolina GM) being a different place every day. Since they draft BPA, it's critical that they look at everyone.

John Fox plain out sucks at developing young QBs, thus does not take QBs early if at all in the draft and relies on veteran QBs to come in right away. Fox likes veterans that know what they are doing out of the gates. He doesn't want to teach a young QB the pro game. The only reason I feel we took Jimmy Clausen was because Hurney stepped in and made the pick. I feel we would have gone Golden Tate if Fox had any say so in it, which I would have actually preferred. Outside of taking Clausen and Pike last year, Fox had only taken 2 QBs in the draft during his tenure, Randy Fasani in 2003 and Stephan Lefors in 2005.

You can also put money on it that Fox will not miss in the first round. Look at his first round picks in Carolina. Peppers, Gross, Gamble, T. Davis, Deangelo, Beason, Stewart, Otah. All of those guys are solid contributors to the team with several Pro Bowlers in there.

Fox also does not have a very good track record of drafting in the 2nd round. Out of all of our 2nd round picks, Richard Marshall was the only noteworthy player, Everette Brown is still out to jury.

If you have questions, let me know. I'll do my best to check back in this thread later.
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paul-mac


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 25, 2011 6:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

boondock wrote:
Also, I will add some additional information.

Fox works out everyone under the moon. I remember a few years back when we would hear of Fox and Hurney (Carolina GM) being a different place every day. Since they draft BPA, it's critical that they look at everyone.

John Fox plain out sucks at developing young QBs, thus does not take QBs early if at all in the draft and relies on veteran QBs to come in right away. Fox likes veterans that know what they are doing out of the gates. He doesn't want to teach a young QB the pro game. The only reason I feel we took Jimmy Clausen was because Hurney stepped in and made the pick. I feel we would have gone Golden Tate if Fox had any say so in it, which I would have actually preferred. Outside of taking Clausen and Pike last year, Fox had only taken 2 QBs in the draft during his tenure, Randy Fasani in 2003 and Stephan Lefors in 2005.

You can also put money on it that Fox will not miss in the first round. Look at his first round picks in Carolina. Peppers, Gross, Gamble, T. Davis, Deangelo, Beason, Stewart, Otah. All of those guys are solid contributors to the team with several Pro Bowlers in there.

Fox also does not have a very good track record of drafting in the 2nd round. Out of all of our 2nd round picks, Richard Marshall was the only noteworthy player, Everette Brown is still out to jury.

If you have questions, let me know. I'll do my best to check back in this thread later.
That's a pity given we hold a pair of second rounders, maybe we package them for something in the twenties or trade one of them for a 2012 1st rounder.
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germ-x


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 25, 2011 7:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

For the past 2 months or so i have actually been working on a Denver Bronco draft strategy type thing.

How i have done this is by looking at Denver's 2 drafts under McDaniels (because Xanders and many of the scouts are still here) and Carolina's drafts since 2005.

I did this to try and find tendencies and what not. Now this is certainly not a science, and it is farther off than most teams because Fox didn't make all the decisions in Carolina so we really have no idea how he would have ran things had he been there, while John Elway is new to the game. Finding these tendencies for this season and possibly a few more will be tough.

Here are some things that stick out looking at those 7 drafts:

Offense
- 4 QB's were selected in those 7 drafts, with 2 of them being in the 1st2 rounds.
- 4 RB's were also selected, and all in the first 4 rounds.
- Only 1 FB has been selected in the middle rounds.
- WR is the most sought after position, with 8 being selected out of 7 drafts. They are selected throughout the draft, but mostly in the 3rd round.
- 4 TE's have also been selected, but if Denver takes a TE it will likely be around the 5th. It is likely a player from a well known school who is a well rounded player.
- Offensive linemen are primarily selected in the 3rd round or later.
- Of the 61 selections in those 7 drafts, 33 of them were on the offensive side of the ball.

Defense
- DE's have been selected 7 times, and throughout the draft, but most of them occur in the 7th round.
- Only 2 DT's have been selected and the earliest was in the 3rd round.
- Out of the drafts 5 LB's have been selected with 3 of them in the first 3 rounds.
- 14 DB's have been selected in those 7 drafts. None have been 1st round picks, 4 have been 2nd round picks, and 5 have been 7th round picks.
- The drafts lean toward defensive players in the 6th and 7th rounds.

Some other stuff
- The drafts lean toward selecting players from southern and midwest schools. 40 of the 61 selections have came from this area.
- The team will almost always select players that participated or were invited to the combine.
- The college programs that have had multiple players selected from them are Baylor, Georgia, Oregon, Notre Dame, South Carolina, and Virginia Tech, all with 3 players a piece. The team has also selected 2 players a piece from Fresno St, Iowa, Miami, North Carolina, Penn St, Texas A&M, USC, and Utah.
- The drafts rarely have players from smaller level schools.
- In the early rounds the drafts showed that the team is willing to take chances on high potential players. However, in the later rounds it seems the focus is on productive college players that may lack the measurables to go higher. There isn't a ton of late round high potential fliers. The drafts seem to indicate getting some sort of production out of those picks.
- Neither team in those drafts was stingy with their picks. They are willing to move up and down in the draft acquiring and trading picks. Expect there to me some sort of movement in this upcoming draft and possibly multiple trades.

There is also some similarities in combine numbers and the type of talents at each position, but i haven't sifted through all of that yet. However, it seems that the team won't be afraid to select players high according to BPA or if they can fill a certain role on the team. From that i would expect a high draft choice on an RB that can bring more speed and gamebreaking ability to the backfield to off set Moreno's style.
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bwall


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 25, 2011 7:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here are just the first round picks that the Panthers made under Fox:


2002 Julius Peppers
2003 Jordan Gross
2004 Chris Gamble
2006 Thomas Davis
2006 DeAngelo Williams
2007 John Beason
2008 Jonathan Stewart, Jeff Otah

(They haven't picked in the first the last 2 years)


Last edited by bwall on Fri Mar 25, 2011 8:21 pm; edited 1 time in total
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james.mcmurry13


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 25, 2011 8:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fox and Hurney tag-teamed things in Carolina during Fox's tenure, so its tough to tell which tendencies belong to whom, but:

1. We've basically been a stopper for the last few years. By that I mean that when a highly touted prospect slips (Jimmy Clausen, Everette Brown, Dwayne Jarrett, Ryan Kalil, Charles Johnson, Eric Shelton, Eric Norwood, Greg Hardy, Captain Munnerlyn), we're the ones to draft them. Some of it was good, some bad, but thats a solid tendency.

2. We like to make luxury picks, sometimes on projects. Gross, Gamble, Davis, and Stewart would count as luxuries, Davis as a project also. Maybe you could call it foresight, but those picks and many more early picks were made at positions which weren't the most pressing needs at that time, although they did become needs in a few years. It goes towards the BPA trend.

3. We don't miss on first round picks. Just look at the list. Second round is terrible though.
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Army


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 25, 2011 9:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You can go back and watch the interviews with Fox, Elway, and Xanders taken at the Combine (I believe I watched them on the Broncos home page), and you will notice a stark difference in drafting philosophy. When asked, Elway and Xanders stated that their drafting philosophy was to take the BPA "at a position of need." Fox was unequivocal. He said that his philosophy is to take the BPA, Period. Regardless of position. Clearly a difference.

It is pretty clear from the Carolina fans posting on this thread that Fox will lobby to take BPA, no matter what position, and Kyle Orton will be our starting QB next season. That does 2 things. It guarantees that we won't have a shot at any of the top "Franchise" QBs in next years draft, because we will win some games, and it guarantees we won't make the playoffs, or if we do, will go nowhere with Orton as QB. I think that fact will really anger a lot of fans, but unlike some on these boards, I don't believe that after 35 years of Mile Hi sellouts, that the FO really cares what fans who threaten to change loyalties have to say. If the economy in Denver were a problem, maybe. But there are a lot of people in this town, with a lot of money, who will take up any slack in ticket sales. And a few wins with Orton at QB will placate any fans who will be "livid" that Tebow isn't in the mix.
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elliot878


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 25, 2011 10:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's nice to hear of Fox's BPA overall mentality. Based on what I've read, I've got to believe that we pick either Patrick Peterson or Marcell Dareus.

If any of these guys say that they want the best player available its got to be one of these two. I think Gabbert will be gone to Carolina, and surely Elway and Xanders cannot be so blind as to think that Cam Newton is a better football player, or will become a better football player than Marcell Dareus or Patrick Peterson. (If Elway thinks this, than God help us.)

After taking in this information, and processing it, my thoughts on the voting for the #2 pick are:
Elway: Dareus
Fox: Peterson
Xanders: Dareus


For 36 I think the obvious assumption would be that Fox targets a faller, as the Panthers fans who have been so kind to help us out have mentioned, this is his m.o.

I'd think that his eyes are on a guy like Paea who looks like he'll fall a bit due to the post-season injury.

If Allen Bailey fell to our 3rd I feel like Fox would be all over it, and I would love it.

Kinda my dream scenario, but using some of his tendencies. Just can't predict how Elway and Xanders will vote on things, and to be honest, Elway's opinion being in the fold scares the living crap out of me. Players turned GM's don't often work out, and I don't have a ton of hope based on what Elway's been quoted as saying thus far.
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Russell2Bailey


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 25, 2011 10:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Last time we drafted a player that had multiple pro bowls with us- Al Wilson in 1999. Shocked
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elliot878


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 25, 2011 10:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Russell2Bailey wrote:
Last time we drafted a player that had multiple pro bowls with us- Al Wilson in 1999. Shocked


Shocked
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germ-x


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 25, 2011 11:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

elliot878 wrote:
If Allen Bailey fell to our 3rd I feel like Fox would be all over it, and I would love it.


Akeem Ayers comes to mind as a player that could fall in the 2nd. He is falling because he didn't show the athleticism many thought he had. He could very well be the BPA on the board, as well as filling a major need at LB.
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Russell2Bailey


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 25, 2011 11:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

germ-x wrote:
elliot878 wrote:
If Allen Bailey fell to our 3rd I feel like Fox would be all over it, and I would love it.


Akeem Ayers comes to mind as a player that could fall in the 2nd. He is falling because he didn't show the athleticism many thought he had. He could very well be the BPA on the board, as well as filling a major need at LB.
Ayers is like a poor mans Von Miller, no?
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elliot878


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 25, 2011 11:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Russell2Bailey wrote:
germ-x wrote:
elliot878 wrote:
If Allen Bailey fell to our 3rd I feel like Fox would be all over it, and I would love it.


Akeem Ayers comes to mind as a player that could fall in the 2nd. He is falling because he didn't show the athleticism many thought he had. He could very well be the BPA on the board, as well as filling a major need at LB.
Ayers is like a poor mans Von Miller, no?


Great call, Germ.

Ayers can't rush the passer much, but don't think he's been asked to. He's got great size, and is your prototypical SAM. Can come up and play the run well, can cover TE's and RB's out of the backfield, and he's done this job through his time at UCLA. I'm sure Germ could tell you much more than I could on him. Great falling candidate though. His on field grade was that of a top 20 pick, when he ran his stock fell. He's more of a Chad Greenway. I doubt he'll be THAT productive, but skillset in stoping the run, covering, and doing the job of a SAM is similar.
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elliot878


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 26, 2011 12:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

As far as doing the job of your typical SAM backer. Early in their careers Ayers would provide more of the skillset of a typical SAM, whereas Von Miller would be used more as an extra pass rusher. Miller still has to learn the position, whereas Ayers has been playing this exact position at a high level at UCLA for a few years now.
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