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3-4 OLB's, by the #'s (Updated)
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Waldo


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 09, 2011 1:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

palmy50 wrote:
I just feel the issues he had at first are very much in line with the issues Maybin is having right now. Like Maybin, Wake was a one trick pony that could win with pure speed in the Big-10. Wake fell hard though, and then took the time to master his craft. I don't think he is three times the player now because he put on 15lbs though. LIS, the sickle cell was also an issue at the time as well. Was just saying anyway. That guys a damn freak!


Number games like this are always an exercise in probability. There will always be anomalies (why are they always Penn St? Do they put something funny in the water or have a weird workout regimen?) You can't say whether they are good or not, but you can get and idea on the general chances.

You have to admit, he is a safer prospect at 250 than he was at 235. Hence the reason guys are always changing their weight for the combine, trying to get closer to the ideal and minimize the risk for teams.

Which reminds me of something I've meant to ask. Certain schools tend to have fairly similar athletic profiles in their prospects. Is it a recruiting thing or development thing? LSU boys can never jump (or lift for that matter), Texas A&M guys can always jump. Purdue guys are always strong.
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jmoney


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 09, 2011 1:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I laugh at people who said that Houston's stock is down after the combine. I laugh hard. If GM's would possibly be stupid enough to let him fall to #32.

Raji was an easy decision at #9, and a pleasant surprise that he fell that far.

Bulaga was an easy decision at #23, and a pleasant surprise that he fell that far.

I would love to see that history repeat itself with Houston.
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palmy50


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 09, 2011 2:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Waldo wrote:
palmy50 wrote:
I just feel the issues he had at first are very much in line with the issues Maybin is having right now. Like Maybin, Wake was a one trick pony that could win with pure speed in the Big-10. Wake fell hard though, and then took the time to master his craft. I don't think he is three times the player now because he put on 15lbs though. LIS, the sickle cell was also an issue at the time as well. Was just saying anyway. That guys a damn freak!


Number games like this are always an exercise in probability. There will always be anomalies (why are they always Penn St? Do they put something funny in the water or have a weird workout regimen?) You can't say whether they are good or not, but you can get and idea on the general chances.

You have to admit, he is a safer prospect at 250 than he was at 235. Hence the reason guys are always changing their weight for the combine, trying to get closer to the ideal and minimize the risk for teams.

Which reminds me of something I've meant to ask. Certain schools tend to have fairly similar athletic profiles in their prospects. Is it a recruiting thing or development thing? LSU boys can never jump (or lift for that matter), Texas A&M guys can always jump. Purdue guys are always strong.


Would not fight ya on that in bold. I just think he wanted every horse in the race on draft day. That was a weight/length combo that would work with the hand in the dirt or LB. No doubt his agent let him know that pre draft. Remember, Wake played both in college. Another reason why he was so raw. That was not my point anyway. I just wanted to point out that Wake was not a good/great athlete. He was a freak athlete. One of the best I have ever been around pound for pound. Some of the S & C staff at PSU still rave about his skills. We are talking about an 18 year old kid that could jump the 40 box with 100lbs on his back. Just think about that for a sec! LIS, one of the best athletes I have ever been around. There was Lavar Arrington(man was not human) but Wake is clearly at or near the top of the rest.

The last part of that is a mix of all that is. Clearly they look for their fit/body type when recruiting and many times the S&C staff sticks around for 10-20 years. I think that is more about the length of time a staff can stay in place at the college level VS pro.
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motorcycle


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 09, 2011 4:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Great work Waldo. Are there any plans to do something similar for the defensive line?
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N. Collins Fan


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 09, 2011 10:04 am    Post subject: Re: 3-4 OLB's, by the #'s Reply with quote

Waldo wrote:
High Explosion Power Rushers:



Here is where my other explosion formula comes into play.

(Vert + 3.5*Broad)*(Wt/Ht) / 3000

The 3000 isn't really necessary, it just makes for easier comparisons. How this one is different, mass is part of it, and it is a basic measure of the energy that their explosion can be converted into. How much violence can they bring.

This group is every player that scored above a 1 in that formula (except those also in the next group). The group is also sorted by that measure.

Here we see one notable bust, Gholston. One has to wonder why. It is often stated that he lacks suddenness and is stiff, but that really shouldn't be his game. He should be a violent rusher, much like those in green above him.


This begs the question of whether Gholston deserves another chance or not. I for one am not ashamed to say I was in love with Gholston on draft day and cannot for the life of me understand why he has been such a colossal bust. Is there anything with the Jets/Ravens scheme that has put him out of position? Would he be better with his hand on the ground? Would he fit what we do on defense? Or, does he just really not want to play football?
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PacAttack04


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 09, 2011 11:11 am    Post subject: Re: 3-4 OLB's, by the #'s Reply with quote

N. Collins Fan wrote:
Waldo wrote:
High Explosion Power Rushers:



Here is where my other explosion formula comes into play.

(Vert + 3.5*Broad)*(Wt/Ht) / 3000

The 3000 isn't really necessary, it just makes for easier comparisons. How this one is different, mass is part of it, and it is a basic measure of the energy that their explosion can be converted into. How much violence can they bring.

This group is every player that scored above a 1 in that formula (except those also in the next group). The group is also sorted by that measure.

Here we see one notable bust, Gholston. One has to wonder why. It is often stated that he lacks suddenness and is stiff, but that really shouldn't be his game. He should be a violent rusher, much like those in green above him.


This begs the question of whether Gholston deserves another chance or not. I for one am not ashamed to say I was in love with Gholston on draft day and cannot for the life of me understand why he has been such a colossal bust. Is there anything with the Jets/Ravens scheme that has put him out of position? Would he be better with his hand on the ground? Would he fit what we do on defense? Or, does he just really not want to play football?


I really don't know that either. Everyone says Gholston doesn't like football and doesn't work hard, but by all account hes was reported as a hard worker in college. I doubt he became as good as he was in college without working at it.

One thing I saw someone state before the draft was that Gholston just doesnt like contact. For his position, that would be a big thing that could really just mentally hold him back as a player.
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JaguarCrazy2832


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 09, 2011 11:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

That is a damn impressive read there. Hopefully GB can get Houston but with his increase in weight 4-3 teams will be alot more interested
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footy_29


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 09, 2011 1:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Good stuff Waldo.

I'm wondering your opinion of Robert Quinn based on this characterization of yours. For the Redskins, I'm inclined to one of Quinn, Watt, Locker or Julio based on need, and above all talent. It doesn't seem like your stats are particularly endorsing to Quinn, perchance from a year off football training.

Let's say Locker isn't the pick, do you think your formula suggests that Watt would be the better pick than Quinn?
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BrettFavre004


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 09, 2011 2:04 pm    Post subject: Re: 3-4 OLB's, by the #'s Reply with quote

Explosive Speed Rushers:



I really wanted Worlids last year, because of excellent measureables on an already fair draft grade. Will be interested to see how he pans out when/if Woodley leaves.
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Waldo


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 09, 2011 2:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

footy_29 wrote:
Let's say Locker isn't the pick, do you think your formula suggests that Watt would be the better pick than Quinn?


As a numbers guy, Watt is WAAAAAAAYY better of a prospect than Quinn.

Watt would be #1 in the explosive speed rusher group via the sort used, and #2 in the power rusher group, behind Orakpo.

Watt is a prospect a la Super Mario that is a far positive outlier in the #'s. If you consider the workouts a test he got an A+, if you consider it a game, he beat it on the first try, and needs to turn up the difficulty level and quit playing the game on beginner. Watt to the combine is what Aaron Rodgers was to the Falcons secondary.
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Waldo


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 09, 2011 2:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I wrote up some prospect evals based on what the #'s say and updated the OP with the info. Here you go though:

Prospect Discussion:

Von Miller - This guy has all the makings of a fearsome speed rusher in the Clay Matthews/Demarcus Ware mold. He is a very gifted athlete that should be able to rely on his physical gifts to consistently win matchups at the NFL level. He is a guy who I would also expect to excel in all areas of the field, if anything he should be just as good in coverage as when rushing. The style of player he is tends to be better at getting off blocks or beating them in the run game to make a play than holding the point to allow others to do so. Elite WOLB prospect. Closest player comparison - a toss up between Matthews and Ware. Really almost a blend of the two with better long speed and agility than both.

Justin Houston - The only prospect in this draft that fits into both elite categories. Is he a speed edge rusher with a high end bull rush, or a bull rusher with a high end speed edge rush? Does it matter? He has the physical skill set to be a very complete rusher. I don't buy that he will struggle in space, his #'s suggest an all around fluid athlete that should be able to make plays all over the field. His size and strength means that he should be one of the btter OLB's at holding the point in the run game. Closest player comparison - Tough because he really fits in both categories, but I can see either a more fluid Merriman or a bigger and more stout Wimbley. Really depends on his style, does he rush with violence or speed/finesse primarily? Both should work, depends on whats upstairs.

Dontay Moch - He's a guy that I think people are thinking about all wrong. Don't let his size and 40 time fool you, he is NOT a speed rusher. He doesn't have the flexibilty to consistently win with speed, though his speed would suggest that when schemed to run free, he will get there fast. His bull rush should be his bread and butter, and what his counter moves be based on. He is a prospect more than any that would benefit from putting a little meat on his bones. Given additional bulk should help him as a point player, and do nothing to hurt his bull rush. I think that he's a guy that might need a couple years to work on his body and his hand technique, but he has the physical talent to be a stud, especially if his mind is in the right place, playing with hate on the field. Closest player comparison - right now, Koa Misi with better straight line speed. 15 pounds of good mass though could make him a very similar player to both Orakpo and Woodley, though he would probably have a little better (though largley useless) top end speed than both.

D'Aundre Reed - He's one of those guys that is good enough on all fronts but elite in none. If he is going to win on Sundays, it will be through superior drive, technique, and motor. He might be better suited to played DE than OLB, being really on the fringe with good enough agility for the position, and probably not at his best in space. His numbers suggest a guy that should be reasonably decent point player at the next level at OLB. He has all the traits though to make it work if his mind is right. Even if he does, it will probably take a few years before he amounts to anything more than a role player, and would not expect excellence in his rookie contract. Closest player comparison - Even though he is in a different group, David Veikune. D'Aundre is more explosive than David, to the point where he might be able to make it work where David didn't, but I would expect their all around game to look relatively similar. Both are unusually strong.

Martez Wilson - A LB prospect moreso than a DE conversion, but his numbers suggest a player that could win on Sundays at OLB. Lacks the flexibily/agility to really be a fearsome speed rusher, but he's close to the cusp, probably close enough that he could make it work at times. Has teh explosion to be a good but not great bull rusher. A little more meat on his bones would probably be beneficial for the position. Likely would be more of a complimentary rusher. Inexperiance rushing off the edge means that he could be a bit of a project as a rusher, though he likely would have the other apsects of an all around LB game to bring to the table to get on the field. Closest player comparison - oddly enough, Frank Zombo, though he can run a good bit faster than Frank. He could also play ILB though which adds some value.

Chris Carter - A low explosion speed rusher. He has the flexibility to threaten around the corner, but lacks the explostion to consistently gat there. This type tend to be good at stunting around blocks to get there. He's a little on the small size and not powerful/explosive enough to really be a good point player, bulking up would hurt him as a speed rusher. Probably at his best in space, whether rushing, playing the run, or covering. He should be able to win with his speed rush on occasion, with technique work and motor, and snap awareness he could be come a good pass rusher one day, though it will take some time. The low explosion speed rusher group HAS produced elite players, though not recently in 3-4 defenses. KGB was a notable low explosion speed rusher, one trait that he had that really made his game work was elite jump on the snap, which was in his mind, not a measurable trait. Closest player comparison - Larry Hart, a rookie DE/OLB for Jacksonville, who got a little playing time last year and notched 1.5 sacks.

Sam Acho - Another low explosion speed rusher. Sam's agility borders on extreme, especially for his size. However he is relatively slow and might be best served too lose a little bulk. It will decrease his ability as a point player, but likely make it easier for him ot get to the QB. Like Chris, technique, motor, and elite snap timing ability will make his game work. Closest player comparison - Jyles Tucker, Jyles is a little faster and not quite as agile, but a relatively close comparison.

Brooks Reed/Ryan Kerrigan - I'm going to lump these two together because of their extreme similarity, physically at least. The group these guys are in are tech/motor rushers. Their upper body strength should help them with their hand work, but they lack the explosion or flexibility to be dominant physical rushers. What you ae looking for here are technicians, a la in his prime Kampman, and guys with an unstoppable motor, also a la in his prime Kampman. These guys guys should be able to develop into good point players inthe run game. Like Kampman, tech/motor rushers tend to take a long time to come on at the pro level, if they reach elite status it typically will not be in their first contract. Brooks is a little bit faster, Ryan is a little more explosive. Closest player comparison - Anthony Spencer, both of these guys are real similar to Anthony across the board. Like Anthony, they are probably best as "the other guy", and not "the guy", as people would likely be disappointed if they were the main pass rusher, at least in their early career, as a fully mature tech rusher they could be elite in their own right, but that takes a lot of time to really reach that level.

Robert Quinn - He is firmly in the low explosion nothing special group. A tech rusher through and through at the pro level where motor and technique will be his bread and butter. He benefits greatly here from his long arms. There are a lot of guys in this group, more than anything to make it the guys have to want it. Hali is an elite rusher in the group, it took him time to hone his craft to really become what he is today. Overall I am not a fan of drafting players in this group high, because of the long lag time until they are ready to me "the man". Their physical skills are not good enough to win at the pro level, they will need to win with their mind and drive. Closest player comparison - physically, probably David McMillan. Tamba Hali isn't a terrible comparison either, but Robert is faster and more agile than Tamba. But I wouldn't expect much impact from him from the get go, personality is really a key for him, he has to really want it down to the core if he's gonna amount to anything.
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Waldo


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 09, 2011 3:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

motorcycle wrote:
Great work Waldo. Are there any plans to do something similar for the defensive line?


There is. My old database covers the full defensive front 7 spectrum. I'm working on fully redoing it, my old one used best time, pro day/combine, I've changed my mind to using pure combine wherever possible, so every number has to be revisited, which is quite a long term project.

OLB was a logical place to start. It has the volume to really make solid type clumpings.

NT and DE don't have nearly the volume that OLB has, and there are a lot less greens, simply because those guys rarely make the pro bowl, and I don't like the idea of using personal subjective ratings in lieu of basic qualifiers.
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BrettFavre004


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 09, 2011 3:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Waldo wrote:
motorcycle wrote:
Great work Waldo. Are there any plans to do something similar for the defensive line?


There is. My old database covers the full defensive front 7 spectrum. I'm working on fully redoing it, my old one used best time, pro day/combine, I've changed my mind to using pure combine wherever possible, so every number has to be revisited, which is quite a long term project.

OLB was a logical place to start. It has the volume to really make solid type clumpings.

NT and DE don't have nearly the volume that OLB has, and there are a lot less greens, simply because those guys rarely make the pro bowl, and I don't like the idea of using personal subjective ratings in lieu of basic qualifiers.


If you go far enough back, you could use 2nd contract as a qualifier. Those restructuring, i.e., might be artificially high because they are essentially working with their future money as a base. I'd also exclude the Raiders for some type of outlier control.
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Waldo


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 09, 2011 3:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

BrettFavre004 wrote:
Waldo wrote:
motorcycle wrote:
Great work Waldo. Are there any plans to do something similar for the defensive line?


There is. My old database covers the full defensive front 7 spectrum. I'm working on fully redoing it, my old one used best time, pro day/combine, I've changed my mind to using pure combine wherever possible, so every number has to be revisited, which is quite a long term project.

OLB was a logical place to start. It has the volume to really make solid type clumpings.

NT and DE don't have nearly the volume that OLB has, and there are a lot less greens, simply because those guys rarely make the pro bowl, and I don't like the idea of using personal subjective ratings in lieu of basic qualifiers.


If you go far enough back, you could use 2nd contract as a qualifier. Those restructuring, i.e., might be artificially high because they are essentially working with their future money as a base. I'd also exclude the Raiders for some type of outlier control.


Problem with going back far enough is the numbers get scarce, and it used to be a trend in the early '00's that virtually none of the first rounders worked out at the combine.
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Mr Green


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 09, 2011 3:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Even when heads-up on a defensive end, the tall tackle faces a unique problem. Robert Mathis of the Colts is just 6-foot-2, but he plays even shorter in the pass rush. On NFL Network, Mike Mayock spent Combine week praising the angles at which defenders like Mathis torque their bodies when turning to attack the quarterback. Mathis can twist upfield with his body at a 47 degree angle to the ground. Do a little trigonometry (74 inches time the sine of a 47 degree angle) and you get 54.1 inches: Mathis is essentially 4-foot-6 with his body at such a tight angle. Try getting low on that!

http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/41849993/ns/sports-nfl/


Is there a way of measuring the draft prospects based on this quote using your data Waldo? I'm guessing you can't as that requires watching every single tape and measuring on the screen just how much of an angle he is from the ground.

Regardless this is an article that you may find interesting when it comes to analysing pass rushers and offensive tackles.[/quote]
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