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3-4 OLB's, by the #'s (Updated)
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ShimSham


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 08, 2011 10:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Waldo wrote:
ShimSham wrote:
Outstanding project you've put together. You should post it in the Draft or General forum too.


.....then everyone is going to want Justin Houston....

Why again is his "stock" falling because of the combine? Kid's a stud.

I tweeted Chad Reuter (from NFLDraftScout.com) about Houston yesterday or so basically asking why in the hell he's falling to the bottom of the first in so many drafts.

He said a lot of GMs see him as a 43End only (no idea why) and even made a comparison to Robert Ayers, who I thought was a horrible comparison aside from their height and weight. Ayers was just a straight, bull rushing end in my mind. No flexibility.


Knowing that there's no way Von Miller falls, Houston has been on the top of my wish list since the Combine. He should be a top-15 pick at least though. As deep as our roster is I wouldn't even care if we moved up to draft him if he fell to the 20+ pick range.
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ThinkICare


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 08, 2011 11:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

People who watched the combine in the NFL Draft section said that Houston didn't look that fluid and was stiff in some of the drills. Besides that, I don't really know why his stock dropped.
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palmy50


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 08, 2011 11:20 pm    Post subject: Re: 3-4 OLB's, by the #'s Reply with quote

BobSacamano wrote:
Waldo wrote:

I really despise all the "watch the tape" comments, because numbers DO matter. All of them. Welcome to Waldo's wide world of numbers. Very Happy


I don't mean to come in here and contradict, but people really imply that? I've rarely seen it.

I think what most in that camp would adhere to is that numbers certainly matter, but they're not the sole determinant of a successful football player. In other words, you can gather a lot from watching a player on tape in addition to examining the numbers. I don't know if this is even contradictory to what you're implying, but I just really have a hard time thinking people who "know football" would stick strictly to tape when observing a player's abilities.

Good post though, for sure.


YUP, always the sum of ALL the parts!

Nice work there Waldo.
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palmy50


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 08, 2011 11:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Waldo wrote:
ShimSham wrote:
Outstanding project you've put together. You should post it in the Draft or General forum too.


.....then everyone is going to want Justin Houston....

Why again is his "stock" falling because of the combine? Kid's a stud.


Waldo, may I ask why you feel that's the case? That sure as hell did not come to light in the room I'm standing in. The only real Q most had with Houston played out very well for him in interviews. LIS, no player in this draft I would take over Houston for the Green Bay Packers!
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Waldo


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 08, 2011 11:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

palmy50 wrote:
Waldo wrote:
ShimSham wrote:
Outstanding project you've put together. You should post it in the Draft or General forum too.


.....then everyone is going to want Justin Houston....

Why again is his "stock" falling because of the combine? Kid's a stud.


Waldo, may I ask why you feel that's the case? That sure as hell did not come to light in the room I'm standing in. The only real Q most had with Houston played out very well for him in interviews. LIS, no player in this draft I would take over Houston for the Green Bay Packers!


NFP dropped him into the 40's. From the top 10.

NFLDS dropped him to 39, from the high teens (I believe).

The media scouts who I vaguely listen to in passing and the people on Sirius (aside from Gil, haven't listened to him in a few days, mad respect for that cat), all say the same thing.

Too many people think that your OLB's have to able to cover receivers M2M or some crap like that. If Raji can do it, heck most OLB sized DE's can too.

I agree on Houston. ON PAPER he's got a slight lean over Miller in my mind. I think both are going to be studs though.

What's up with Moch? His numbers put him smack dab in the middle of the violent rusher group, whose game is based off their bull rush (Houston is the only one in both, in this class). I've never read that about his game. Could he be a Wake type (closest draft day comparison on paper, aside for the straight line speed), that takes time to find his game?
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palmy50


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 08, 2011 11:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Waldo wrote:
palmy50 wrote:
Waldo wrote:
ShimSham wrote:
Outstanding project you've put together. You should post it in the Draft or General forum too.


.....then everyone is going to want Justin Houston....

Why again is his "stock" falling because of the combine? Kid's a stud.


Waldo, may I ask why you feel that's the case? That sure as hell did not come to light in the room I'm standing in. The only real Q most had with Houston played out very well for him in interviews. LIS, no player in this draft I would take over Houston for the Green Bay Packers!


NFP dropped him into the 40's. From the top 10.

NFLDS dropped him to 39, from the high teens (I believe).

The media scouts who I vaguely listen to in passing and the people on Sirius (aside from Gil, haven't listened to him in a few days, mad respect for that cat), all say the same thing.

Too many people think that your OLB's have to able to cover receivers M2M or some crap like that. If Raji can do it, heck most OLB sized DE's can too.


WOW, I had no clue. I say the hell with that, kids a damn stud!

On a side note. I had a chance to talk with Gil Brandt face to face about a month back or so for the first time. A true living legend in this field!
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incognito_man


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 08, 2011 11:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cheta Ozougwu just misses the cut a couple times on each of these Laughing

His 'slowness' is at something like -2.001.
His 'explosion' is at something like 69.2

But IF he made the cut at each of those, he would then fit into Frank Zombo's group.

His 3cone is too slow (7.06) to fit into Clay's group, and his explosion # (before being divided by 3000) is like 2,700.

I think Zombo's group is a good placement for him Very Happy
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Waldo


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 08, 2011 11:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

palmy50 wrote:
Waldo wrote:
palmy50 wrote:
Waldo wrote:
ShimSham wrote:
Outstanding project you've put together. You should post it in the Draft or General forum too.


.....then everyone is going to want Justin Houston....

Why again is his "stock" falling because of the combine? Kid's a stud.


Waldo, may I ask why you feel that's the case? That sure as hell did not come to light in the room I'm standing in. The only real Q most had with Houston played out very well for him in interviews. LIS, no player in this draft I would take over Houston for the Green Bay Packers!


NFP dropped him into the 40's. From the top 10.

NFLDS dropped him to 39, from the high teens (I believe).

The media scouts who I vaguely listen to in passing and the people on Sirius (aside from Gil, haven't listened to him in a few days, mad respect for that cat), all say the same thing.

Too many people think that your OLB's have to able to cover receivers M2M or some crap like that. If Raji can do it, heck most OLB sized DE's can too.


WOW, I had no clue. I say the hell with that, kids a damn stud!

On a side note. I had a chance to talk with Gil Brandt face to face about a month back or so for the first time. A true living legend in this field!


And I bet he remembers your name, your parents names, where you went to school, high school and college, what other sports you played, etc.....
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palmy50


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 08, 2011 11:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
What's up with Moch? His numbers put him smack dab in the middle of the violent rusher group, whose game is based off their bull rush (Houston is the only one in both, in this class). I've never read that about his game. Could he be a Wake type (closest draft day comparison on paper, aside for the straight line speed), that takes time to find his game?


Nice prospect, but has some work to do. The wonderlic did not help him either.
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palmy50


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 08, 2011 11:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Waldo wrote:
palmy50 wrote:
Waldo wrote:
palmy50 wrote:
Waldo wrote:
ShimSham wrote:
Outstanding project you've put together. You should post it in the Draft or General forum too.


.....then everyone is going to want Justin Houston....

Why again is his "stock" falling because of the combine? Kid's a stud.


Waldo, may I ask why you feel that's the case? That sure as hell did not come to light in the room I'm standing in. The only real Q most had with Houston played out very well for him in interviews. LIS, no player in this draft I would take over Houston for the Green Bay Packers!


NFP dropped him into the 40's. From the top 10.

NFLDS dropped him to 39, from the high teens (I believe).

The media scouts who I vaguely listen to in passing and the people on Sirius (aside from Gil, haven't listened to him in a few days, mad respect for that cat), all say the same thing.

Too many people think that your OLB's have to able to cover receivers M2M or some crap like that. If Raji can do it, heck most OLB sized DE's can too.


WOW, I had no clue. I say the hell with that, kids a damn stud!

On a side note. I had a chance to talk with Gil Brandt face to face about a month back or so for the first time. A true living legend in this field!


And I bet he remembers your name, your parents names, where you went to school, high school and college, what other sports you played, etc.....


LOL, he did know my father and father in law. I'll have to get him the next time around, I guess.
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Waldo


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 08, 2011 11:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

incognito_man wrote:
Cheta Ozougwu just misses the cut a couple times on each of these Laughing

His 'slowness' is at something like -2.001.
His 'explosion' is at something like 69.2

But IF he made the cut at each of those, he would then fit into Frank Zombo's group.

His 3cone is too slow (7.06) to fit into Clay's group, and his explosion # (before being divided by 3000) is like 2,700.

I think Zombo's group is a good placement for him Very Happy


But that doesn't work. Close isn't good enough. The lines form themselves. There is often some spillover up. Instead of picking the ideal spot, I pick round #'s on the safe side (the natural line for speed is really in the -1's somewhere). Cam Wake, Thaddeus Gibson, and Will Davis are the 3 between -1 and -2. And Wake is clearly not the same person he was on draft day, he's a good bit bigger, if he increased his size without getting any slower, he too would not be under -1, his issue was not not how slow he ran, but how darn small he was, for the speed formula.

That is one question that I wish I had data to answer that I will never get.

How does ones speed change with their weight? In a group of NFL prospects, the size and speed relationship is relatively linear for the group average. However for an individual that isn't necessarily true. Every frame/body surely has a unique size:speed curve (I doubt its linear), I'd love to know, on average, what the shape of that curve is for athletes at this level and if you could define where on the curve they are.
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Last edited by Waldo on Wed Mar 09, 2011 12:15 am; edited 1 time in total
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palmy50


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 09, 2011 12:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Waldo wrote:
incognito_man wrote:
Cheta Ozougwu just misses the cut a couple times on each of these Laughing

His 'slowness' is at something like -2.001.
His 'explosion' is at something like 69.2

But IF he made the cut at each of those, he would then fit into Frank Zombo's group.

His 3cone is too slow (7.06) to fit into Clay's group, and his explosion # (before being divided by 3000) is like 2,700.

I think Zombo's group is a good placement for him Very Happy


But that doesn't work. Close isn't good enough. The lines form themselves. There is often some spillover up. Instead of picking the ideal spot, I pick round #'s on the safe side (the natural line for speed is really in the -1's somewhere). Cam Wake, Thaddeus Gibson, and Will Davis are the 3 between -1 and -2. And Wake is clearly not the same person he was on draft day, he's a good bit bigger, if he increased his size without getting any slower, he too would not be under -1, his issue was not not how slow he ran, but how darn small he was, for the speed formula.


I'm not real sure your on the right path with Wake there Waldo. Most loved his workout that year. The med flag (sickle cell) is what killed him. Shame we did not know then what we know now! The tape did not lie for him though. Man had a hard time keeping his air at PSU. From a numbers point of view though, Wake is about what many would draw up for a rusher. Mans a true freak! Very easy to look at that combo and see he is hell out the gate, half the battle right there!
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Waldo


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 09, 2011 12:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

palmy50 wrote:
Waldo wrote:
incognito_man wrote:
Cheta Ozougwu just misses the cut a couple times on each of these Laughing

His 'slowness' is at something like -2.001.
His 'explosion' is at something like 69.2

But IF he made the cut at each of those, he would then fit into Frank Zombo's group.

His 3cone is too slow (7.06) to fit into Clay's group, and his explosion # (before being divided by 3000) is like 2,700.

I think Zombo's group is a good placement for him Very Happy


But that doesn't work. Close isn't good enough. The lines form themselves. There is often some spillover up. Instead of picking the ideal spot, I pick round #'s on the safe side (the natural line for speed is really in the -1's somewhere). Cam Wake, Thaddeus Gibson, and Will Davis are the 3 between -1 and -2. And Wake is clearly not the same person he was on draft day, he's a good bit bigger, if he increased his size without getting any slower, he too would not be under -1, his issue was not not how slow he ran, but how darn small he was, for the speed formula.


I'm not real sure your on the right path with Wake there Waldo. Most loved his workout that year. The med flag (sickle cell) is what killed him. Shame we did not know then what we know now! The tape did not lie for him though. Man had a hard time keeping his air at PSU. From a numbers point of view though, Wake is about what many would draw up for a rusher. Mans a true freak! Very easy to look at that combo and see he is hell out the gate, half the battle right there!


Oh I'm sure. Drool worthy in many repsects. But my formula for speed specifically does not like him. Those are good #'s for a 255 lb prospect, but for a guy as small as he was, they aren't nearly as good.

The "problem" here is obvious though. Put some meat on those bones without losing too much speed, and all is well.

Like I said, the average of speed vs. weight for a group of prospects has a linear relationship. That is not true however for an individual as they gain or lose weight. And he has, he's in the 250 range now, not 235. The speed formula did however correctly predict that he would be cut by the Giants. I didn't get a new set of #'s when he came back from Canada.
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Thrillhouse


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 09, 2011 12:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ShimSham wrote:
Outstanding project you've put together. You should post it in the Draft or General forum too.


Yes. Put it where it right where would never be appreciated.
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palmy50


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 09, 2011 12:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Waldo wrote:
palmy50 wrote:
Waldo wrote:
incognito_man wrote:
Cheta Ozougwu just misses the cut a couple times on each of these Laughing

His 'slowness' is at something like -2.001.
His 'explosion' is at something like 69.2

But IF he made the cut at each of those, he would then fit into Frank Zombo's group.

His 3cone is too slow (7.06) to fit into Clay's group, and his explosion # (before being divided by 3000) is like 2,700.

I think Zombo's group is a good placement for him Very Happy


But that doesn't work. Close isn't good enough. The lines form themselves. There is often some spillover up. Instead of picking the ideal spot, I pick round #'s on the safe side (the natural line for speed is really in the -1's somewhere). Cam Wake, Thaddeus Gibson, and Will Davis are the 3 between -1 and -2. And Wake is clearly not the same person he was on draft day, he's a good bit bigger, if he increased his size without getting any slower, he too would not be under -1, his issue was not not how slow he ran, but how darn small he was, for the speed formula.


I'm not real sure your on the right path with Wake there Waldo. Most loved his workout that year. The med flag (sickle cell) is what killed him. Shame we did not know then what we know now! The tape did not lie for him though. Man had a hard time keeping his air at PSU. From a numbers point of view though, Wake is about what many would draw up for a rusher. Mans a true freak! Very easy to look at that combo and see he is hell out the gate, half the battle right there!


Oh I'm sure. Drool worthy in many repsects. But my formula for speed specifically does not like him. Those are good #'s for a 255 lb prospect, but for a guy as small as he was, they aren't nearly as good.

The "problem" here is obvious though. Put some meat on those bones without losing too much speed, and all is well.

Like I said, the average of speed vs. weight for a group of prospects has a linear relationship. That is not true however for an individual as they gain or lose weight. And he has, he's in the 250 range now, not 235. The speed formula did however correctly predict that he would be cut by the Giants. I didn't get a new set of #'s when he came back from Canada.


Fair enough.

I just feel the issues he had at first are very much in line with the issues Maybin is having right now. Like Maybin, Wake was a one trick pony that could win with pure speed in the Big-10. Wake fell hard though, and then took the time to master his craft. I don't think he is three times the player now because he put on 15lbs though. LIS, the sickle cell was also an issue at the time as well. Was just saying anyway. That guys a damn freak!
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