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BlaZeN37
Joined: 19 Mar 2007
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Location: Miami, FL
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 Posted: Mon Mar 07, 2011 2:33 am Post subject: |
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I've also notcied that everyone in section A of the criteria also jumped a vert of 35'' or better and a broad jump of 10'00'' other then Shaun Phillips (someone who relies completely on there speed and agility).
So to go along the lines of what Waldo was saying, there seems to be some sort of barometer in certain drills that show if a player has the ability to beat a profesional NFL tackle. So it seems the marker for this is doing the 3-cone under 7 seconds, while jumping a vert of atleast 35'' and a broad of atleast 10'00'' while having the size of a 3-4 OLB (6-3 or 6-4 from 245 to 270). This shows that they have the agility and bend required to turn the corner while also having the needed exlposiveness. It would seem to me if you have a prospect that fits this mold, chances are he has the physicial ability to consistantly beat NFL tackles. |
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Waldo
Joined: 29 Nov 2006
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Location: The ATL
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| Posted: Mon Mar 07, 2011 2:49 am Post subject: |
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| BlaZeN37 wrote: | I've also notcied that everyone in section A of the criteria also jumped a vert of 35'' or better and a broad jump of 10'00'' other then Shaun Phillips (someone who relies completely on there speed and agility).
So to go along the lines of what Waldo was saying, there seems to be some sort of barometer in certain drills that show if a player has the ability to beat a profesional NFL tackle. So it seems the marker for this is doing the 3-cone under 7 seconds, while jumping a vert of atleast 35'' and a broad of atleast 10'00'' while having the size of a 3-4 OLB (6-3 or 6-4 from 245 to 270). This shows that they have the agility and bend required to turn the corner while also having the needed exlposiveness. It would seem to me if you have a prospect that fits this mold, chances are he has the physicial ability to consistantly beat NFL tackles. |
But there are different paths to the QB. Distinctly different ones.
Speed/bend plus speed counters (C. Matthews)
Speed/Explosion into power plus power counters (J. Harrison)
Hands/tech/length plus power (J. Allen)
etc.....
The same number set that works for the speed rushers will not work for the tech rushers. And the speed into power rushers is a different type of rush utilizing speed and explosion than the outside bend speed type, where bend isn't as important; the speed and explosion is converted into bull rushing force instead.
Likewise tackles are different against different rusher types. The Packers' Clifton generally has no issue with the speed to power and length/tech rushers, but speed rushers with bend will get him. This was very evident in the playoffs, he had no issue with Harrison or Peppers, but Abraham gave him real trouble. And it varies from tackle to tackle, some guys can handle the speed and struggle with power, others don't have the length and hands to hang with the tech boys.
I just think at each positions you can draw up a slate of good/bad at each workout. Guys who are good at all are typically safe players, they have a high rate of success. With each drill they can't meet the good enough threshold, the risk of failure rises significantly.
I don't think that a single drill is any more valuable than the others. I consider the 10 a separate drill from the 40 for these purposes.
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| Title Town USA wrote: | | Waldo was right! |
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BlaZeN37
Joined: 19 Mar 2007
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Location: Miami, FL
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| Posted: Mon Mar 07, 2011 3:04 am Post subject: |
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Exactly, which is why in my orginial post I split it up into a speed/agility section and a explosion/strength section.
It would seem to me that a 3-4 pass rushing OLB can still have success if he runs a 3-cone over 7 seconds, he would just have to have a vert of atleast 39'' and a broad jump over 10'00'' (along with having the legit 3-4 OLB size). This shows they have the elite explosion/strength needed to overcome the lack of bend/agility around the corner.
If you read back in this thread you can see where I posted the 10 yard splits for the 3-4 OLBs. There is defintely a much better correlation between the 3-cone and vert/broad in projecting a prospects ability to be a successfull pass rushing 3-4 OLB then there is with the 10-yard split (or any other drill for that matter). Unless of course they do horrible on any of them, since doing terrible in a drill says a lot more then doing great in one.
Last edited by BlaZeN37 on Mon Mar 07, 2011 3:11 am; edited 2 times in total |
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Waldo
Joined: 29 Nov 2006
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Location: The ATL
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| Posted: Mon Mar 07, 2011 3:04 am Post subject: |
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| BlaZeN37 wrote: | | To be honest with you, I personally feel that combine workouts mean very little towards projecting a prospect ability at the next level (unless they have a GREAT workout or a HORRIBLE one). |
FIFY.
The value of the combine workouts is to weed out the marginal or poor prospects. Problem is that MOST prospects are marginal or poor.
The correlation is MUCH stronger between doing bad and being a bust than it is between doing good and being a good player. The absence of bad is a much stronger predictor than doing good.
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| Title Town USA wrote: | | Waldo was right! |
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Waldo
Joined: 29 Nov 2006
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| Posted: Mon Mar 07, 2011 3:10 am Post subject: |
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| BlaZeN37 wrote: | | I've also notcied that everyone in section A of the criteria also jumped a vert of 35'' or better and a broad jump of 10'00'' other then Shaun Phillips (someone who relies completely on there speed and agility). |
I bet they all can run a 40 in 4.8 seconds, a 10 in 1.65 seconds, lift 225 20 times......
The big one with variance is the shuttle. Though the bust rate of the guys whose shuttle is under 4.20 is much better than the guys whose isn't.
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| Title Town USA wrote: | | Waldo was right! |
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Waldo
Joined: 29 Nov 2006
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Location: The ATL
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| Posted: Mon Mar 07, 2011 3:19 am Post subject: |
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| BlaZeN37 wrote: | Exactly, which is why in my orginial post I split it up into a speed/agility section and a explosion/strength section.
It would seem to me that a 3-4 pass rushing OLB can still have success if he runs a 3-cone over 7 seconds, he would just have to have a vert of atleast 39'' and a broad jump over 10'00'' (along with having the legit 3-4 OLB size). This shows they have the elite explosion/strength needed to overcome the lack of bend/agility around the corner.
If you read back in this thread you can see where I posted the 10 yard splits for the 3-4 OLBs. There is defintely a much better correlation between the 3-cone and vert/broad in projecting a prospects ability to be a successfull pass rushing 3-4 OLB then there is with the 10-yard split (or any other drill for that matter). Unless of course they do horrible on any of them, since doing terrible in a drill says a lot more then doing great in one. |
When you expand your dataset to ALL drafted prospects, this in bold becomes true for all drills. You know, Brad Jones ran a 6.75 3 cone, why isn't he a pass rushing stud?
The 3 cone in general is a very good bellwether drill at all positions, not just pass rusher. Guys that do good in it just plain make good football players, since it is a more complex movement test. The correlation between the cone and success is also true at DB, LB, DL, OL, RB, TE, and WR.
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| Title Town USA wrote: | | Waldo was right! |
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BlaZeN37
Joined: 19 Mar 2007
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Location: Miami, FL
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| Posted: Mon Mar 07, 2011 3:21 am Post subject: |
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| Waldo wrote: | FIFY.
The value of the combine workouts is to weed out the marginal or poor prospects. Problem is that MOST prospects are marginal or poor.
The correlation is MUCH stronger between doing bad and being a bust than it is between doing good and being a good player. The absence of bad is a much stronger predictor than doing good. |
Funny, as you were posting this I was editing my previous post and added a paragraph with the same sentiment. I agree with you, but in my eyes a 6'4; 260 prospect doing the 3-cone under 7 seconds to go with a vert of atleast 35'' and a broad of atleast 10'00'' IS an elite set of numbers that show required athletic ability needed to be a good-great pass rusher in the 3-4. Obviously this doesn't say a prospect is a sure fire success at the next level because of this because of course you factor in character, work ethic, production, and level of competion. Why do you think Von Miller is considered one of the safest picks in this years draft? Because he has everything, the requred athletic ablity to go along with everything else. |
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BlaZeN37
Joined: 19 Mar 2007
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Location: Miami, FL
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| Posted: Mon Mar 07, 2011 3:36 am Post subject: |
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| Waldo wrote: | I bet they all can run a 40 in 4.8 seconds, a 10 in 1.65 seconds, lift 225 20 times......
The big one with variance is the shuttle. Though the bust rate of the guys whose shuttle is under 4.20 is much better than the guys whose isn't. |
Other then the bench press your right, but a 4.8 fourty and a 1.65 split are very easily achievable numbers.
Yup, the shuttle seems to be a crap-shot. Plenty of good players who had mediocre or bad shuttle times and over came that with more important athletic ablities... such as explosion and bend/agility. A pure change of direction drill like the shuttle is much better used for WRs and CBs.
| Waldo wrote: | When you expand your dataset to ALL drafted prospects, this in bold becomes true for all drills. You know, Brad Jones ran a 6.75 3 cone, why isn't he a pass rushing stud?
The 3 cone in general is a very good bellwether drill at all positions, not just pass rusher. Guys that do good in it just plain make good football players, since it is a more complex movement test. The correlation between the cone and success is also true at DB, LB, DL, OL, RB, TE, and WR. |
Which is exactly why you cannot include other positions. The position of 3-4 OLB is unlike any other in the NFL. You need a special kind of athlete to be an effective pass rusher on the edge in a 3-4. I don't think that in many other positions you can use combine numbers to purely project NFL success like you can at OLB in the 3-4. And like I said in the previous post, you need to have other things along with those numbers from the combine.
Because Brad Jones is 230 pounds (which means a lot more when a prospect does the 3-cone under 7 seconds when he is 250-260), didn't have the production, and went against mediocre competition. There is a reason he went in the 7th round, instead of the first or second. It's a safe assumption to assume that an NFL team taking a potential 3-4 OLB in the first 2 rounds are taking them because of production, skill, and competition to go along with whatever else they like about them. Which is the reason why I only included players who were taken in the first 2 rounds. |
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clarence
Joined: 28 Jan 2011
Posts: 8
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| Posted: Tue Mar 08, 2011 5:41 am Post subject: |
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nice research. not that it applies to this, but JJ Watt has olb athleticism...
vert- 37"
broad- 10'
shuttle- 4.21
3 cone- 6.88
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KamTrus20
Joined: 17 Nov 2009
Posts: 4769
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| Posted: Tue Mar 08, 2011 2:25 pm Post subject: |
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| clarence wrote: | nice research. not that it applies to this, but JJ Watt has olb athleticism...
vert- 37"
broad- 10'
shuttle- 4.21
3 cone- 6.88
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and he's 290.
Its a shame no one talks about him as an elite prospect.
He was dominant on the field as well.
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BlaZeN37
Joined: 19 Mar 2007
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Location: Miami, FL
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| Posted: Tue Mar 08, 2011 7:13 pm Post subject: |
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| J.J Watt is going to be an all-pro... Somwhat with his athletism, to go along with his production and motor is outstanding. |
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mounimonster
Joined: 13 Jan 2011
Posts: 62
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| Posted: Tue Mar 08, 2011 10:09 pm Post subject: |
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Forgot to ask why no mention of 10 yd split in the OP?
It'd be good to see some of the elite pass rushers in the league 10 yd splits.
I think Brooks Reed had the fastest at 1.54 |
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Waldo
Joined: 29 Nov 2006
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Location: The ATL
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| Posted: Wed Mar 09, 2011 12:08 am Post subject: |
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Thx BlaZeN37, you got me thinking about this again and I went and updated all my data (at least for 3-4 OLB's so far, my data encompasses the defensive front 7, 3-4 and 4-3).
The concept of the 3 cone as a measurable for speed rushers is something that just never occurred to me, I've been on the explosive kick though for a while.
I made a thread in the GB forum about it, didn't want to steal your thunder here.
http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=439601
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| Title Town USA wrote: | | Waldo was right! |
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Conquest8089
Joined: 15 Jul 2008
Posts: 2475
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| Posted: Wed Mar 09, 2011 1:50 am Post subject: |
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A few days ago I was trying to look into the combine numbers and determine the way teams analyze them with these players. Great in-depth report by you. Passed it along to a few of my friends who were equally impressed.
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91jmay
Joined: 11 Dec 2006
Posts: 20638
Location: Wonderland
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| Posted: Wed Mar 09, 2011 7:39 am Post subject: |
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I can't remeber if i've already posted in this thread, but the OP and the discussion in this thread is A*. Fantastic read. Waldo and BlaZeN37 need to combine and do more number work on different aspects of the NFL IMO (i know Waldo already has done some excellent stuff).
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| baconrad3 wrote: | | You mean Matt Stafford aka Stat Padford? |
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